new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

citysights

DrumSteve wrote: »

And wash their hands after they take a piss.

Yes and another thing is that maybe it’s a wake up call about how connected we all are now right round the globe now and how easily things can spread.

Am not a doomsday merchant but would be wary of confined spaces now with large numbers of people and also of air con which i’ve always found very unhealthy.Can see more sustainable living on the cards.

all about the mane

Runaways wrote: »

Believe it or not I have as I’m just finished in a job and took the holiday so I don’t have to be anywhere right now anyway except on the phone looking for a new job. Am kind of curious should I call them and have them come out n all that n see what the test process is and how rigorous

So you are staying in the house, and eliminating any contact with the outside world?

Doctor Jimbob

givyjoe wrote: »

But you can dismiss them with non existent data?! Whatever helps you sleep at night.

Acknowledging that the data is incomplete and should be regarded with a pinch of salt isn't dismissing the data.

There's a trend in this thread that any data indicating things won't be too bad is scoffed at while any data that indicates something much worse is going on is taken as gospel. The reality is we just don't know. It's a developing situation.

Runaways

all about the mane wrote: »

So you are staying in the house, and eliminating any contact with the outside world?

I am.
Mad part is my housemates a nurse in a major hospital. He’s not bothered so I’m not.

all about the mane

Runaways wrote: »

I am.
Mad part is my housemates a nurse in a major hospital. He’s not bothered so I’m not.

How did you get back from the airport?

givyjoe

all about the mane wrote: »

You can dismiss them without a complete data set.

There is no complete data set. The only way it would be complete is if every single case of flu and covid19 were documented, regardless of the level of severity. They aren't, won't and never will be. Both viruses have cases where they will not be officially recorded, clinging to this hope that isnt that serious and the numbers will come down to flu level mortality (without a vaccine) is delusional.

all about the mane

givyjoe wrote: »

There is no complete data set. The only way it would be complete is if every single case of flu and covid19 were documented, regardless of the level of severity. They aren't, won't and never will be. Both viruses have cases where they will not be officially recorded, clinging to this hope that isnt that serious and the numbers will come down to flu level mortality (without a vaccine) is delusional.

How do you know without a complete data set?

givyjoe

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Acknowledging that the data is incomplete and should be regarded with a pinch of salt isn't dismissing the data.

There's a trend in this thread that any data indicating things won't be too bad is scoffed at while any data that indicates something much worse is going on is taken as gospel. The reality is we just don't know. It's a developing situation.

Except that isnt what the poster in question is saying, they have literally dismissed it out of hand as has mane just now! Can you point me to the data suggesting it won't be too bad? All I keep seeing are comparisons to flu and flu death rates.

givyjoe

all about the mane wrote: »

How do you know without a complete data set?

So you've always gone to the doctor every time you've been sick have you? You really need that explained do you?

Runaways

all about the mane wrote: »

How did you get back from the airport?

Taxi.

Gruesome aside, final flight home putting my luggage up before take off and forgot my headphones in the bag so reached back up and somehow sliced my finger wide open on the lock. Blood everywhere. Given loads of space by people trying to find their seats. Like it was gushing. Found an attendant who very helpfully gave me loads of napkins and a plaster. *Cant attach pic some reason.
That was me all the way til Dublin. Felt so bad for
the two ladies beside me. One was kind about it the other looking at me like I had the plague she asked to move seats.
Don’t fly ethiad. They haven’t a clue when it comes to first aid.

skimpydoo

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Try not to worry.

I'm not worried yet but I will be curtailing some of my activities.

DrumSteve

givyjoe wrote: »

Except that isnt what the poster in question is saying, they have literally dismissed it out of hand as has mane just now! Can you point me to the data suggesting it won't be too bad? All I keep seeing are comparisons to flu and flu death rates.

If we prepare for the worst possible scenario, we should be okay.

Everything I'm seeing so far is making it look like this is clocking in at a 9% mortality rate, in line with SARS. Looking at current strategies, it seems to be the case that countries are looking to contain it as long as possible, but I think that horse has long bolted.

The problem here is the relatively long incubation rate of the disease.

Though I'd imagine as it gets warmer, this may help kill it off for a bit until a vaccine is found.

DrumSteve

Deleted User wrote: »

Being the eternal ghoul I am, I’ll be curious to know who our Patient 1 will be, where they will have come from, what hospital they will be in, what is their place of work (eg restaurant server), where they will have been during incubation, and the HSE and media response.

Runaways wrote: »

Taxi.

Gruesome aside, final flight home putting my luggage up before take off and forgot my headphones in the bag so reached back up and somehow sliced my finger wide open on the lock. Blood everywhere. Given loads of space by people trying to find their seats. Like it was gushing. Found an attendant who very helpfully gave me loads of napkins and a plaster. *Cant attach pic some reason.
That was me all the way til Dublin. Felt so bad for
the two ladies beside me. One was kind about it the other looking at me like I had the plague she asked to move seats.
Don’t fly ethiad. They haven’t a clue when it comes to first aid.

We have a winner!

drkpower

givyjoe wrote: »

And how you come to this conclusion? Have you any stats to counter whatever it is you believe to be rubbish?

77,000 cases in a country of a billion people
That means .000077 infection rate
Apply that to Ireland; sure it’s only a few cases
Easy peasy this stuff.

We definitely have enough data to make informed assessments.......

Runaways

DrumSteve wrote: »

We have a winner!

Haha. Please god no.
I’m not even going the shops never mind the gym or anything. Wouldn’t fancy being the one. But how many flights a day into Dublin fron all over?
There’s people here have it already we just don’t know yet I’d say.

all about the mane

Runaways wrote: »

Taxi.

Gruesome aside, final flight home putting my luggage up before take off and forgot my headphones in the bag so reached back up and somehow sliced my finger wide open on the lock. Blood everywhere. Given loads of space by people trying to find their seats. Like it was gushing. Found an attendant who very helpfully gave me loads of napkins and a plaster. *Cant attach pic some reason.
That was me all the way til Dublin. Felt so bad for
the two ladies beside me. One was kind about it the other looking at me like I had the plague she asked to move seats.
Don’t fly ethiad. They haven’t a clue when it comes to first aid.

So besides the taxi man and your housemate you have had no other contact?

Mic 1972

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Acknowledging that the data is incomplete and should be regarded with a pinch of salt isn't dismissing the data.

There's a trend in this thread that any data indicating things won't be too bad is scoffed at while any data that indicates something much worse is going on is taken as gospel. The reality is we just don't know. It's a developing situation.

There is a lot of actual data available, we have been 2 months solid into this and numbers have piled up. While not being able to account for unreported cases, there are almost 80,000 reported cases that are showing consistent trends and can no longer be dismissed as "too early to draw conclusions"
Also rates are dynamics and have evolved over the last couple of weeks, people - and the press - are still referring to figures that no longer apply to the current data

Runaways

all about the mane wrote: »

So besides the taxi man and your housemate you have had no other contact?

One. My da with the keys to the house.

Candamir

drkpower wrote: »

77,000 cases in a country of a billion people
That means .000077 infection rate
Apply that to Ireland; sure it’s only a few cases
Easy peasy this stuff.

We definitely have enough data to make informed assessments.......

Gotta love statistics!

DrumSteve

Runaways wrote: »

One. My da with the keys to the house.

So 3 people?

I wonder how many people that Taxi man will pick up or the nurse will see in the ward.

givyjoe

drkpower wrote: »

77,000 cases in a country of a billion people
That means .000077 infection rate
Apply that to Ireland; sure it’s only a few cases
Easy peasy this stuff.

We definitely have enough data to make informed assessments.......

Genuinely not sure which side of the argument this sarcasm is aimed at but, what has the infection SO FAR in China got to do with the mortality or critical rates?

Runaways

DrumSteve wrote: »

So 3 people?

I wonder how many people that Taxi man will pick up or the nurse will see in the ward.

Only seen him this morning for a minute and didn’t speak to the cab driver other than to tell him my destination. I was and remain mad paro about this myself don’t worry

Mic 1972

givyjoe wrote: »

There is no complete data set. The only way it would be complete is if every single case of flu and covid19 were documented, regardless of the level of severity. They aren't, won't and never will be. Both viruses have cases where they will not be officially recorded, clinging to this hope that isnt that serious and the numbers will come down to flu level mortality (without a vaccine) is delusional.

i agree with this statement

SeaBreezes

Runaways wrote: »

Only seen him this morning for a minute and didn’t speak to the cab driver other than to tell him my destination. I was and remain mad paro about this myself don’t worry

If your using the same bathroom/kitchen your housemate will get anything you have.
Fingers crossed all is clear and will be fine.

But I agree with you it's likely already here.

Candamir

givyjoe wrote: »

Genuinely not sure which side of the argument this sarcasm is aimed at but, what has the infection SO FAR in China got to do with the mortality or critical rates?

But aren’t the data from cases SO FAR what you’re using for your more ‘useful’ stats?

And can you not really see where that statement is aimed!

DrumSteve

Runaways wrote: »

Only seen him this morning for a minute and didn’t speak to the cab driver other than to tell him my destination. I was and remain mad paro about this myself don’t worry

Paro....eh? Definitely a Dub!

How many people live in Dublin,eh! Based on that, if every person they meet, meets 3 other people, I give it 10 days til Dublin is wiped out.

drkpower

drkpower wrote: »

77,000 cases in a country of a billion people
That means .000077 infection rate
Apply that to Ireland; sure it’s only a few cases
Easy peasy this stuff.

We definitely have enough data to make informed assessments.......

China is far too big an area to compare with Ireland.

Runaways

DrumSteve wrote: »

Paro....eh? Definitely a Dub!

How many people live in Dublin,eh! Based on that, if every person they meet, meets 3 other people, I give it 10 days til Dublin is wiped out.

Read something on the back of a book ‘All societys think they are invulnerable and invincible. History teaches us that is not so’. Could well be this is nature restoring some balance.
Would have flown to Cork had I known

drkpower

givyjoe wrote: »

Genuinely not sure which side of the argument this sarcasm is aimed at but, what has the infection SO FAR in China got to do with the mortality or critical rates?

So, we need more information to assess infection rates.

But we can assess mortality rates / icu rates now based on the information we have SO FAR?

all about the mane

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

China is far too big an area to compare with Ireland.

Why?