new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Knex*

fritzelly wrote: »

So this is convenient, cannot declare a pandemic if you have no criteria to declare one

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231919662167941123

givyjoe

givyjoe wrote: »

No it doesn't, it assumes a 2% death rate on 1000000 infections (20k), which won't be the case if we don't have enough respirators etc for critical patients. 20% of cases being critical means 200k will have been in critical condition, that's an enormous number. Hopefully that worst case scenario doesn't happen, but if does we have to hope those numbers are spread over as long a time period as possible. Thats why it's so important to do as much as we possibly can to slow down the spread.

Just posting this as you are lying again. As it says nowhere in the article you linked that 20% of people would need critical care. Why do some posters feel the need to lie?

Timberrrrrrrr

BanditLuke wrote: »

Some good news for China

https://twitter.com/jamesvgingerich/status/1231933042635108352

Mother nature fights back.

Fr_Dougal

fritzelly wrote: »

So this is convenient, cannot declare a pandemic if you have no criteria to declare one

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231919662167941123

This is Waterford Whispers type stuff.

Next we’ll have the death toll drop because the WHO want to redefine what ‘death’ is.

We’ve already seen it a few times with ‘infected cases’.

drkpower

Mic 1972 wrote: »

We can asses mortality rate based on a sample of 27K people who have had an outcome
That sample is contained inside an 80K sample of people who will eventually have an outcome, so we can also observe how such mortality rate will evolve
Form a statistical stand point this is good data

Sure, you can assess how the 80k are getting on; you can’t extrapolate further than that 80k and into the general population (with any degree of accuracy).

BanditLuke

Bahrain Covid19 case is school bus driver

https://www.gulf-insider.com/bahrain-coronavirus-patient-identified-as-school-bus-driver/

Hopefully as it looks this doesn't infect kids that badly.

fritzelly

Another death in Italy - cancer sufferer again - total 6 now

ThePopehimself

DrumSteve wrote: »

So 3 people?

I wonder how many people that Taxi man will pick up or the nurse will see in the ward.

...and how many more Taxi's are driving around having had similar passengers today...

The 13:22 Milan to Dublin EI433 just landed at Terminal 2 Dublin Airport
And the 15:40 Dublin to Milan EI 436 is due to depart this afternoon bang on schedule…
There are people travelling back and forth to South Korea from Dublin and Shannon...and so it goes.

Our stable doors have been left wide open.

BanditLuke

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Mother nature fights back.

You know what it wouldn't surprise me.

Minime2.5

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Mother nature fights back.

Against the disease that is the human race

drkpower

givyjoe wrote: »

A number of posters have literally just dismissed the stats we have of confirmed cases.. are you picking and choosing which posts you read in full?

Are you on a piss take? You literally calculated infection rates based upon the total population of China, compared to current infection rates and don't see why that's being dismissed? The virus has only been around for 2.5/3 months, half of which the breakout zones have been under quarantine.

Also, I didn't estimate the 1 million infected in Ireland. You might want to take a that up with the professor in Beaumont.

You should really provide that list of what end-points the data is sufficient to draw conclusions on, and what it’s not sufficient for. I’ll get you started based on your previous views; please amend as appropriate:

Good for:
No of deaths in Ireland
No of ICU beds needed

Not good for:
No of cases in Ireland

What mcconkey said was that IF 1m people got infected in Ireland, the following might happen; how do you think that supports anything you have to say?

4068ac1elhodqr

Europe is currently having worst day on the markets since 2016.
About $400 billion worth of stock has been crumpled up, and lobbed into the waste paper bin this morning.
Ah well.

BanditLuke

ThePopehimself wrote: »

...and how many more Taxi's are driving around having had similar passengers today...

The 13:22 Milan to Dublin EI433 just landed at Terminal 2 Dublin Airport
And the 15:40 Dublin to Milan EI 436 is due to depart this afternoon bang on schedule…
There are people travelling back and forth to South Korea from Dublin and Shannon...and so it goes.

Our stable doors have been left wide open.

It's actually farcial now. The government has sent out HSE talking heads all morning to tell people stop being silly everything is okay yet they still up until 1pm had zero checks within the airport for incoming passangers never mind cancelling flights. If it wasn't so serious you'd laugh.

fritzelly

Coronavirus on Liveline - you know this is bad now

givyjoe

Deleted User wrote: »

Just posting this as you are lying again. As it says nowhere in the article you linked that 20% of people would need critical care. Why do some posters feel the need to lie?

Right, I've had enough of this crap. Go back and check my post and re read it, then you can come back to apologise. The article states that 5% of cases of FLU cases were critical (in feb 2019), which is exactly what I stated. The 20% of critical cases comes from the actual stats of current critical cases of covid19, which is... ~20%. Id suggest you read things twice before falsely accusing people of lying. It's absolutely pathetic.

Mic 1972

drkpower wrote: »

Sure, you can assess how the 80k are getting on; you can’t extrapolate further than that 80k and into the general population (with any degree of accuracy).

80K is decently sized sample

touts

There is a lad on Lifeline who thinks he has Coronavirus because someone who worked in the college he visited last week in South Korea now has it.

First reaction is phone Joe!

Edit: it turns out he phoned the HSE this morning and they said he had nothing to worry about so now he is onto Joe because the HSE didn't quarantine him.

odyssey06

touts wrote: »

There is a lad on Lifeline who thinks he has Coronavirus because someone who worked in the college he visited last week in South Korea now has it. First reaction is phone Joe!

What did Joe say? Go on.

DrumSteve

Mic 1972 wrote: »

3 cases in the philippines? you think that is enough data to run stats?
you need to look at large samples, that's how you look at data

all about the mane wrote: »

3 confirmed cases

all about the mane wrote: »

It’s enough if it suits his argument

Lads, did you read my full post.

Mic 1972

I'm expecting a visitor from Rome on Wednesday, she'll stay for 1 month LOL!

drkpower

Mic 1972 wrote: »

80K is decently sized sample

But you don’t know much or anything about how representative that 80k is if the total of people who get covid.

4068ac1elhodqr

fritzelly wrote: »

Coronavirus on Liveline - you know this is bad now

The chap said he tried to call the HSE on Sunday for advice, but the line was closed.

When did get through for advice today, it was 'ah sure, look it...'.

SeaBreezes

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

This is Waterford Whispers type stuff.

Next we’ll have the death toll drop because the WHO want to redefine what ‘death’ is.

We’ve already seen it a few times with ‘infected cases’.

Ha, was only chatting to a friend this morning about this, explained the WHO were taking the advice of Stats/infectious disease experts, and we were waiting to see the result of that today.
But I said, 'i guess they are figuring out how to say 'pandemic' without actually saying it.'

Not fit for purpose, that organisation. They are there to protect PEOPLE not economies..

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

80K is decently sized sample

Cmere. I thought you were a business analyst. Surely, you realise that the fact fact over 90% of cases are in the Hubei province would skew any data???

Runaways

This guy on the radio sounds like he’s waffling

Cody montana

Interesting to see how much the Dow Jones drops today.

cnocbui

10000maniacs wrote: »

How did the virus enter Italy? And how many on the airplane that brought in the carrier caught the virus too. Airplane air conditioning is a petri dish for such airborne viruses.

Airplane Air is HEPA filtered:

Every winter, legions of healthy travelers board airplanes wondering if they’ll still be well when they walk off, after spending hours packed shoulder to shoulder with dozens—or even hundreds—of other passengers, some of whom are likely to be suffering from a cold or the flu. This year, the prospect of contracting swine flu has of course heightened the anxiety. But there’s good reason to take heart (and take to the skies): Several scientific studies show that, in terms of the spread of contagious bugs, airplanes are healthier environments than is commonly believed.

While it’s true that the germs which cause colds and flu can be passed from person to person through coughs and sneezes, research indicates that you need to be sitting very close to a sick passenger—usually within two rows—and for longer than eight hours to significantly increase your chances of contracting an illness. “There is a heightened risk of infection when you enter a confined space such as an aircraft or subway, but a plane is a much safer place because of the ventilation system,” says Dr. Mark Gendreau, an emergency and aviation medicine expert at the Lahey Clinic in Burlington, Massachusetts.

On average, cabin air is completely refreshed 20 times per hour, compared with just 12 times per hour in an office building. On most aircraft, air is also circulated through hospital-grade HEPA filters, which remove 99.97 percent of bacteria, as well as the airborne particles that viruses use for transport (many regional jets lack these filters). Additionally, cabins are divided into separate ventilation sections about every seven rows of seats, which means that you share air only with those in your immediate environment and not with the guy who’s coughing up a lung ten rows back. When the plane is on the ground, however, air circulation in the cabin can be greatly reduced.

The most common way to pick up a bug when flying, experts say, is from a contaminated surface—tray tables, lavatory doors, and latches on overhead bins are loaded with viruses and bacteria. “When I travel, I become very compulsive and even wipe the tray table with an alcohol-based hand sanitizer,” says Dr. Gendreau.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/34708785/ns/travel-travel_tips/t/airplane-air-not-bad-you-think/

givyjoe

whiskeyman wrote: »

I just saw a clip of him on the RTE 9 news.
He said if you have symptoms, to call 999 or your GP!!!

WTF??

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

Seems ok to me. What do you think they should do?

givyjoe wrote: »

Call Joe Duffy

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

The chap said he tried to call the HSE on Sunday for advice, but the line was closed.

When did get through for advice today, it was 'ah sure, look it...'.

This wasnt a joke!

elbyrneo

My Mam is travelling to Spain on Thursday, she would be prone to picking up infections. To put her mind a little at ease for the airplane/airport want to get her a mask, the n95 respirator type ones, not the surgical ones that dont do much.

Sold out everywhere I can see. Any suggestions at short notice?

dominatinMC

elbyrneo wrote: »

My Mam is travelling to Spain on Thursday, she would be prone to picking up infections. To put her mind a little at ease for the airplane/airport want to get her a mask, the n95 respirator type ones, not the surgical ones that dont do much.

Sold out everywhere I can see. Any suggestions at short notice?

Is the trip urgent/critical? If not, then why bother