new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

VinLieger

SeaBreezes wrote: »

That's what I keep wondering. Are the others still fighting it? Is there a period of time before your fully recovered? Are they only counting people hospitalised?

They are only counting people hospitalised and have been tested, theres undoubtedly more at home so that numbers deffinitely low. Also theres deffinitely dead in this situation not being counted.

Im more suspect of the ever increasing number of confirmed infected vs dead/recovered still being so low.
Part of it may be the bonkers way china seems to classify cause of death,,they only apparently list one of the causes even if the patient was sufferring from multiple issues. Elsewhere all would be listed, ie flu, pneumonia and organ failure as an example

Kermit.de.frog

The current situation

2,110 serious
328 recovered
19,544 suspected

Deaths 304

VinLieger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The current situation

2,110 serious
328 recovered
19,544 suspected

Deaths 304

Wheres that suspected figure from?

Also why are they only reporting serious and not critical?

Kermit.de.frog

VinLieger wrote: »

Wheres that suspected figure from?

Only mainland China

From here

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

zell12

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

From here
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

The Guardian says

Across China, there were 2,590 new confirmed infections on Saturday, bringing the total to 14,380, China’s National Health Commission said on Sunday.
A study published on Saturday by scientists from the University of Hong Kong found that the virus may have infected as many as 75,815 people in Wuhan.https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/feb/02/coronavirus-deaths-hong-kong-health-workers-to-strike-china-border-

VinLieger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

From here

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Weird in their summary they only list serious and not critical while in the provincial breakdown they show critical

scamalert

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The current situation

2,110 serious
328 recovered
19,544 suspected

Deaths 304

good breakdown, but add 14mill or 20mill people and pull out % rate per 100k, then compare that to any virus etc, and see where it lands on the scales. As i ain't sure about weather conditions and how well it spreads, but if temperature is a factor we will see massive decline in month or two. And will be like nothing happened.

Why are RTÉ not reporting on what happened on the flight from Moscow last night?

On the 23rd January they were happy enough to report that somebody in Northern Ireland was being tested for the virus.

babybuilder

PhantomHat wrote: »

Possibly up to 14 days pre symptom incubation period which may be infectious. About 14 days symptom period.

The four people who contracted the illness in Germany had an incubation period of 3-5 days. The index person had one of 14 days. This shows the unpredictability of this virus

babybuilder

scamalert wrote: »

good breakdown, but add 14mill or 20mill people and pull out % rate per 100k, then compare that to any virus etc, and see where it lands on the scales. As i ain't sure about weather conditions and how well it spreads, but if temperature is a factor we will see massive decline in month or two. And will be like nothing happened.

What is the rate of testing? How many testing labs do they have? Is it true that people are being forced / locked into their apartment blocks? Official figures are bound to be on the low side

wakka12

VinLieger wrote: »

Wheres that suspected figure from?

Also why are they only reporting serious and not critical?

Critical is included in that figure. It's about 25% of the number

scamalert

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Why are RTÉ not reporting on what happened on the flight from Moscow last night?

On the 23rd January they were happy enough to report that somebody in Northern Ireland was being tested for the virus.

there was a case in Ireland that person was suspected and they tested person and cleared within hour. was on the news, do you want each suspected case or person to be reported on radio ?

PhantomHat

Apologies if this channel has already been mentioned. A relatively good source of information about the virus IMO

https://youtu.be/GpbUoLvpdCo

Panrich

zell12 wrote: »

The Guardian says

As many as 75815?

Sounds like they were able to name them.

scamalert

scamalert wrote: »

there was a case in Ireland that person was suspected and they tested person and cleared within hour. was on the news, do you want each suspected case or person to be reported on radio ?

Well it is news and that’s their remit, isnt it?

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Akrasia wrote: »

I have to admit to being shocked that someone with your username also happens to be a conspiracy theorist... who would ever have thought it???

This virus is an inevitable consequence of mixing live animal markets with large densely populated urban environments

Not everyone who posits a particular theory or speculative opinion on something, is necessarily saying that they believe that theory!

I wouldn't even be able to give you a % on how much I believe that this could be a bio-weapon... deliberate release or otherwise!

We're not all spouting off arrogantly, that we're 150% sure of a certain theory... so you can call me a conspiracy theorist if you wish. But I am simply spit-balling an idea... while still being completely on the fence, as to whether it could be true or not.

As regards my username (which I thought up in 10 seconds while registering)... how the hell does that have any relevance to my points? It's just a stupid username ffs! :P Perhaps your username has some deeper resonance... I can assure you, mine certainly does not!

wakka12

Two of the germans flown home have tested positive
3 of the japanese expats flown home tested positive too
Would imply the virus is extremely widespread in Wuhan if there are a relatively significant number of expats coming home infected on the few flights out of there

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

Two of the germans flown home have tested positive
3 of the japanese expats flown home tested positive too
Would imply the virus is extremely widespread in Wuhan if there are a relatively significant number of expats coming home infected on the few flights out of there

What’s the procedure for testing do you know? Do they take a blood test every day until a safe amount of days have passed?

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Not everyone who posits a particular theory or speculative opinion on something, is necessarily saying that they believe that theory!

I wouldn't even be able to give you a % on how much I believe that this could be a bio-weapon... deliberate release or otherwise!

We're not all spouting off arrogantly, that we're 150% sure of a certain theory... so you can call me a conspiracy theorist if you wish. But I am simply spit-balling an idea... while still being completely on the fence, as to whether it could be true or not.

It doesn't matter whether you genuinely believe the theory or not. You post, and people will think it's your opinion. That's the way the internet works, unless you're going to put a disclaimer in. And it's hardly spitballing when the theory has been thrown out there by a variety of posters, none of whom were up to providing any decent evidence beyond a news article (which was also lacking in evidence), and ignore/dismiss objections out of hand.

The point is that it is a conspiracy theory, and repeatedly posting about it shows you've invested yourself in promoting the theory.

Just leave the conspiracy theories to another thread. I think most posters here would like to see information/updates about the Virus, or China that are based in fact, or at least if not fact, being posted by people who are there/live there.

1641

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Why are RTÉ not reporting on what happened on the flight from Moscow last night?

On the 23rd January they were happy enough to report that somebody in Northern Ireland was being tested for the virus.

RTE have linked up with Wuhan Biological Research Facility. They did this covertly because they were refused a license fee increase and President Xi guaranteed them a secret subsidy. They (RTE) have been identified as a conduit to release the virus in the West. This will happen SOON. Don't watch the weather forecast - they are going to broadcast it from there. That's why the election has been called for next Saturday too. Leo knows there will be a panic and only FGs will go out to vote.


This was told to me by someone who has a friend in the CIA! They won't tell in case it causes panic - stay calm everyone!

cameramonkey

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

What’s the procedure for testing do you know? Do they take a blood test every day until a safe amount of days have passed?

If you are showing symptoms then there will be viral particles in your system.

zell12

Panrich wrote: »

As many as 75815?
Sounds like they were able to name them.

The research, published in The Lancet on Saturday 25th, is based on the assumption that each infected person could have passed the virus on to 2.68 others. The estimated total was as of Tuesday 28th

mikhail

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

What’s the procedure for testing do you know? Do they take a blood test every day until a safe amount of days have passed?

A blood test should only be required once, I think. It's not like observing symptoms - much more reliable.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Deleted User wrote: »

It doesn't matter whether you genuinely believe the theory or not. You post, and people will think it's your opinion. That's the way the internet works, unless you're going to put a disclaimer in. And it's hardly spitballing when the theory has been thrown out there by a variety of posters, none of whom were up to providing any decent evidence beyond a news article (which was also lacking in evidence), and ignore/dismiss objections out of hand.

The point is that it is a conspiracy theory, and repeatedly posting about it shows you've invested yourself in promoting the theory.

Just leave the conspiracy theories to another thread. I think most posters here would like to see information/updates about the Virus, or China that are based in fact, or at least if not fact, being posted by people who are there/live there.

Nah, I'll keep speculating... or entertaining other people's speculative theories, if I so wish to do so. And you can focus solely on hard facts, if that is your preference.

There's no reason why you cannot have both fact based discussion, and more speculative based discussion in the same thread.

Each to their own really... I respect people who want to focus solely on confirmed facts. But you need to respect that others might wish to throw around some speculation/theories on this. There can be merit in both approaches.

VinLieger

mikhail wrote: »

A blood test should only be required once, I think. It's not like observing symptoms - much more reliable.

Incorrect theres reported instances of people testing negative then a day later testing positive

cameramonkey

VinLieger wrote: »

Incorrect theres reported instances of people testing negative then a day later testing positive

Were they showing symptoms on the first day they were tested? If not that is normal for a viral infection.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Each to their own really... I respect people who want to focus solely on confirmed facts. But you need to respect that others might wish to throw around some speculation/theories on this. There can be merit in both approaches.

ok. What is the benefit of promoting the belief that the virus was released from a covert bio-weapons lab?

And I have no problem with you speculating about it, but the claims of this being a bio-weapons lab haven't been allowed to die down. Posters aren't coming into the thread, discussing it and then leaving it at that. Instead, they're posting it, again and again. Personally, i find it annoying, and one of the reasons there is a conspiracy forum separate from this forum for these kind of things.

(although I suspect the lack of traffic in the conspiracy theory forum is the reason why it keeps being reintroduced into this thread)

Gynoid

[Deleted User] wrote: »

ok. What is the benefit of promoting the belief that the virus was released from a covert bio-weapons lab?

And I have no problem with you speculating about it, but the claims of this being a bio-weapons lab haven't been allowed to die down. Posters aren't coming into the thread, discussing it and then leaving it at that. Instead, they're posting it, again and again. Personally, i find it annoying, and one of the reasons there is a conspiracy forum separate from this forum for these kind of things.

(although I suspect the lack of traffic in the conspiracy theory forum is the reason why it keeps being reintroduced into this thread)

To be honest I do not get the annoyance. There is a lot of different type of commentary going on here. People in China, people like yourself who normally are in China, people like Wakka who have medical backgrounds, people freaking out, sanguine people, people having a laugh, people thinking a bit conspiratorially, and people calling those ones eejits. The conspiracies are repeated as often only as they are trounced, like a game of tennis. Shrugs. So what?
If I was an editor on an investigative newspaper or news program I might say Mags you cover the human angle, Bob you crunch the numbers for us of sick, dying and dead, Wally you give us a few funny cartoons to keep the spirits up, Dee you get the inside story on the Chinese govt and inyernational response and Malley you follow up your crazy theory about a human error leak from a bio-lab.
Okay, you decrepid bunch of slobbering useless hacks, get your ugly faces outta yer coffee mugs pronto and do some actual work!!!!

tom1ie

This thread has turned into nonsense. Could all the theorists piss off to a new thread and keep this one for informative factual discussions only. Thanks.
Anyway.
What happened to the rest of the passengers off that Moscow flight last night? Will there be follow up tests done on them?
What happened to the guy who tested positive, is he still in isolation in the matter?
I can’t find any television news coverage on this from sky, bbc, RTÉ or cnn.
The guy that died in the Philippines (first outside of China) was 44. Not particularly old. Did he have underlying health issues?
Just a couple of questions that aren’t related to conspiracy.
Let’s get this thread back on track please.

Del.Monte

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Why are RTÉ not reporting on what happened on the flight from Moscow last night?

On the 23rd January they were happy enough to report that somebody in Northern Ireland was being tested for the virus.

I heard a report about it on the 11am news today but as usual it was bs - not a word about the other passengers on the flight. Were they waved through the airport to contaminate whoever they meet? I think we know the answer to that but shure we're neutral. :rolleyes:

New trial regulations from China’s National Health Commission (NHC) have banned funerals and other similar activities involving the corpses of deceased victims of the novel coronavirus.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/china-bans-funerals-for-coronavirus-victims-as-death-toll-rises-2020-2?utm_source=quora&utm_medium=referral&r=US&IR=T

Maybe earlier rumors were true?

Clarence Boddiker

Bio Weapon or not, its entirely plausible that it was accidentally released from the lab in Wuhan. It may have been a weapon or possibly Vaccine research on a potential virus. Or just general tinkering with existing virus types gone wrong.
But the lab angle cannot be dismissed at this stage.

fixXxer

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

What’s the procedure for testing do you know? Do they take a blood test every day until a safe amount of days have passed?

Would usually be molecular PCR testing on nasal or throat swabs.

zell12

Del.Monte wrote: »

I heard a report about it on the 11am news today but as usual it was bs - not a word about the other passengers on the flight. ..

They were held on the plane for hours
Each of them was given a leaflet informing them of the potential Coronavirus case and advising them to "avoid contact with other people" tonight and ring 999 if they later display symptoms. It had an incorrect date too.
It read:
You have been on a flight from Moscow today with a possible case of novel Coronavirus. Please avoid contact with other people as much as possible tonight.
If you become ill, especially with a cough, sore throat, breathlessness or high temperature please stay home or in you hotel room and phone a doctor or 999 for advice, mentioning that you are on this flight. A public health doctor will contact you tomorrow.

babybuilder

zell12 wrote: »

They were held on the plane for hours
Each of them was given a leaflet informing them of the potential Coronavirus case and advising them to "avoid contact with other people" tonight and ring 999 if they later display symptoms.
It read:
You have been on a flight from Moscow today with a possible case of novel Coronavirus. Please avoid contact with other people as much as possible tonight.
If you become ill, especially with a cough, sore throat, breathlessness or high temperature please stay home or in you hotel room and phone a doctor or 999 for advice, mentioning that you are on this flight. A public health doctor will contact you tomorrow.

No public safety announcement to reassure us what has happened or what steps are being taken. Deplorable. Wrong - criminal incompetence

VinLieger

zell12 wrote: »

They were held on the plane for hours
Each of them was given a leaflet informing them of the potential Coronavirus case and advising them to "avoid contact with other people" tonight and ring 999 if they later display symptoms.
It read:
You have been on a flight from Moscow today with a possible case of novel Coronavirus. Please avoid contact with other people as much as possible tonight.
If you become ill, especially with a cough, sore throat, breathlessness or high temperature please stay home or in you hotel room and phone a doctor or 999 for advice, mentioning that you are on this flight. A public health doctor will contact you tomorrow.

Which is ridiculous, they should have all been quarantined until the persons test results come back and then if it was positive for coronavirus held in a centre with regular tests performed.

bilston

scamalert wrote: »

if people would only use rational thinking not consipracy ****e on the internet, given total numbers this virus doesnt even match flu, as 300 death toll as bad as it may sound, in likes of china is a grain of sand. given that it has incubaction period and modern medicine, its spread is slow - which means very well treatable.


we had zika few years back which carried and still does massive genetic disorder for female pregnant women and kids, far worse consequences for life. ebola was something that could been agro virus given location and how uneducated people were at the time.


but in a country with well over billion people 300 deaths and few outside, we have almost same numbers of people that die from regular flu each year here, so this hype that it will have snowball effect when most countries already have contingencies in place to monitor its spread and contain it, shows more of hysteria that media pushes as theres nothing else to report.

Maybe it is being hyped...but it's too early to say.

However the number of confirmed infections and deaths have almost doubled since Thursday. That's three days ago. I'm no expert on viruses but the numbers suggest that by Wednesday we could be talking about 30,000 infections and 600 deaths and by the this time next week 60,000 infections and 1,200 deaths and so it could go on. There is hopefully a good chance that won't happen, or at least that it won't happen that quickly but we don't really know yet.

The big positive is the tiny number of cases outside China, if that remains the case in a week's time (effectively 2 weeks after various travel bans came into place) then maybe we can be reassured that China have this under control and there won't be a global spread of it.

imfml

RTE only do news updates Monday to Friday 9-5. Surreal that there is no main stream media coverage of this, although it is only a suspected case.

If China has dozens of cities in lock down to contain this thing, heads should role for the decisions made last night. Suspected case or not, each passenger is high risk and will surely have interacted with at least 5 members of the public by now, more by the end of the day.

To hold a plane full of passengers for 48 hours and await results would have been an easy and justified decision. Also, if the suspected ill passenger was aware they had symptoms, can somebody please post the time of the public stoning.

odyssey06

VinLieger wrote: »

Which is ridiculous, they should have all been quarantined until the persons test results come back and then if it was positive for coronavirus held in a centre with regular tests performed.

Nah printing a leaflet is a lot less hassle for the officials 'responsible'.

babybuilder

odyssey06 wrote: »

Nah printing a leaflet is a lot less hassle for the officials 'responsible'.

And they couldn't get even the date on the notice right

saabsaab

I saw a notice in the hospital recently that asked people returning from Wuhan or region in the past month or so to ring them if they get sick!


This is not enough, surely they should be proactive and track those who have come from there. the Moscow flight confirms how unprepared we are to deal with it.

Cody montana

saabsaab wrote: »

I saw a notice in the hospital recently that asked people returning from Wuhan or region in the past month or so to ring them if they get sick!


This is not enough, surely they should be proactive and track those who have come from there. the Moscow flight confirms how unprepared we are to deal with it.

And how do you propose a hospital does that?

Fr_Dougal

zell12 wrote: »

They were held on the plane for hours
Each of them was given a leaflet informing them of the potential Coronavirus case and advising them to "avoid contact with other people" tonight and ring 999 if they later display symptoms. It had an incorrect date too.
It read:
You have been on a flight from Moscow today with a possible case of novel Coronavirus. Please avoid contact with other people as much as possible tonight.
If you become ill, especially with a cough, sore throat, breathlessness or high temperature please stay home or in you hotel room and phone a doctor or 999 for advice, mentioning that you are on this flight. A public health doctor will contact you tomorrow.

This demonstrates how prepared Ireland is.

Akrasia

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The current situation

2,110 serious
328 recovered
19,544 suspected

Deaths 304

Is there anywhere that displays the figures as a graph over time?

If the number of reported or confirmed cases is not growing exponentially then there’s probably nothing to worry about.

Scrabbles38

tom1ie wrote: »

This thread has turned into nonsense. Could all the theorists piss off to a new thread and keep this one for informative factual discussions only. Thanks.
Anyway.
What happened to the rest of the passengers off that Moscow flight last night? Will there be follow up tests done on them?
What happened to the guy who tested positive, is he still in isolation in the matter?
I can’t find any television news coverage on this from sky, bbc, RTÉ or cnn.
The guy that died in the Philippines (first outside of China) was 44. Not particularly old. Did he have underlying health issues?
Just a couple of questions that aren’t related to conspiracy.
Let’s get this thread back on track please.

The problem with realising the people off the plane is with this virus you can be contagious before you show symptoms...
After you get better..
Even if your asymptotic you can spreed the virus...
So the should have quarantined the whole plane

zell12

Akrasia wrote: »

Is there anywhere that displays the figures as a graph over time?
If the number of reported or confirmed cases is not growing exponentially then there’s probably nothing to worry about.

From The Lancet

creditcarder

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

It's really funny how anyone on this site who believes climate change is a threat to our collective future is dismissed as an alarmist chicken licken. Then when this disease comes along, a lot of the same posters are flooding the place with evidence free speculation that it's a biological weapon and the end is nigh.

The sky is falling...

I'm a climate change denier and it is actually kind of funny. I am more worried about this even though the climate change could be worse.

Cody montana

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

This demonstrates how prepared Ireland is.

Prepared for what?
There are zero cases.

saabsaab

Cody montana wrote: »

And how do you propose a hospital does that?

Multi agency, can't be just the hospital of course. They would need to get a list of potential flights from transport agencies and follow up on those potentially affected.



The best approach would be to quarantine or ban flights to begin with.


If someone says they don't have staffing will they ahve staffing if/when the virus takes off here?

jam_mac_jam

Cody montana wrote: »

Prepared for what?
There are zero cases.

So lets not prepare then?