new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

s7ryf3925pivug

joseywhales wrote: »

Spouse is working in a major hospital here also, I am actually not so concerned about contracting this virus as I am about the measures that could be imposed on those infected or even those potentially infected. I've never been sick in my life. Maybe that's hubris.

I do not want to be trapped so far away or spread to vulnerable people.

I will wait and see for another week.

Infectious disease. About 40% of known end results have been death so far. Thousands still infected. I'd be more concerned with a failure or inability to isolate its spread here by imposing such measures.

Any such measures would be a lot lighter here than in China because people just wouldn't accept them. It's like wearing masks in public. That was the general advice given to stop the spread of flu in the 30s or so. People in the east adopted it. People in the west saw it as an attack on their civil liberties. Wear a mask in public in a western country and people will laugh at you.

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

About 40% of known end results have been death so far.

That's one of those technically correct stats that I doubt is anywhere close to reality. It's designed to sound scary. When they're at testing capacity, new sick people are going to be tested to see if they have it, not healed people to check that they don't.

car_radio19834

So a lot of Chinese companies I believe last week said they were closing for an extra 2 weeks or so. That was when the infection numbers were about 10k or whatever.

But I don't think the figures will be below 10k by 2 weeks time so is it likely this period of closures will be extended?

gozunda

It has been estimated that 25 per cent of patients infected with the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV have severe symptoms.

 "About 25% of them have very serious disease, requiring relatively intensive or really intensive care," said the director of the NIH's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/nih-dr-anthony-fauci-25percent-of-china-coronavirus-cases-very-serious.html

The current figures of 20,438 confirmed cases in China and an estimated 75,000 - 100,000 believed infected appears to indicate that approx. only 1 in 4 cases as being confimed.

Is it that people are not reporting to hospitals/ staying at home or that the medical system there not able to confirm diagnosis or some combinations of such factors?

laurah591

From the FT.
Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority on Tuesday confirmed the death of a 39-year-old man who suffered from an underlying health condition, marking the second fatality from the outbreak outside mainland China. He had returned to the territory on January 23 following a trip to Wuhan, the central Chinese city at the centre of the outbreak. His infection was confirmed on January 31.

The unnamed man did not visit any of Wuhan’s healthcare facilities or wet markets and had no exposure to wild animals during the virus’s incubation period, the hospital authority added. He had been in a stable condition before his health deteriorated suddenly and he suffered a cardiac arrest.

..........
From an unverified source the man was suffering from diabetes. For anyone who knows... would Cardiac Arrest be normal for respiratory type ilness? Only 2nd death outside China.

Also, number of cases outside China remains very low ...do we think that China's efforts to contain this are having an impact?

Somedaythefire

gozunda wrote: »

It has been estimated that 25 per cent of patients infected with the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV have severe symptoms.

"About 25% of them have very serious disease, requiring relatively intensive or really intensive care," said the director of the NIH's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/nih-dr-anthony-fauci-25percent-of-china-coronavirus-cases-very-serious.html

The current figures of 20,438 confirmed cases in China and a estimated 75,000 - 100,000 believed infected appears to indicate that approx. only 1 in 4 cases as being confimed.

Is it that people are not reporting to hospitals/ staying at home or that the medical system there not able to confirm diagnosis or some combinations of such factors?

Probably a lot of people that have very mild symptoms.

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Second link says 730 recovered which is an improvement

OMM 0000

car_radio19834 wrote: »

So a lot of Chinese companies I believe last week said they were closing for an extra 2 weeks or so. That was when the infection numbers were about 10k or whatever.

But I don't think the figures will be below 10k by 2 weeks time so is it likely this period of closures will be extended?

I don't think they have a choice. If they don't extend the date, then the infection cases will just continue to grow, probably more rapidly.

China have really shot themselves in the foot here. By allowing disgusting hygiene practices - practices the West stopped decades ago - they've allowed this virus to jump to humans and spread.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

It has been estimated that 25 per cent of patients infected with the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV have severe symptoms.

 "About 25% of them have very serious disease, requiring relatively intensive or really intensive care," said the director of the NIH's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/nih-dr-anthony-fauci-25percent-of-china-coronavirus-cases-very-serious.html

The current figures of 20,438 confirmed cases in China and a estimated 75,000 - 100,000 believed infected appears to indicate that approx. only 1 in 4 cases as being confimed.

Is it that people are not reporting to hospitals/ staying at home or that the medical system there not able to confirm diagnosis or some combinations of such factors?

Good news. It's closer to 1 in 16 develop serious issues then if you put those stats together.

Of course people who don't feel like they're dying are going to stay at home away from the hospitals.. Even people in Ireland are spreading fake news that the hospital just built in Wuhan is a just a concentration camp, a place to lock them away and let them die.

wakka12

Latest death reports make it look increasingly likely this is no more dangerous than the flu. The death rate outside Hubei remains at just 0.3%. Though in the city of Wuhan it is very high, sitting almost at SARS level, 5.5%, with a 25% severe complication rate. Anything over 2% is considered very high for a pandemic and a huge global health emergency.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Good news. It's closer to 1 in 16 develop serious issues then if you put those stats together.Of course people who don't feel like they're dying are going to stay at home away from the hospitals.. Even people in Ireland are spreading fake news that the hospital just built in Wuhan is a just a concentration camp, a place to lock them away and let them die.

I dont know that you can put those stats together tbh. Too easy to add 2+2 and get 57

The 25% severe cases estimate is reported here
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/nih-dr-anthony-fauci-25percent-of-china-coronavirus-cases-very-serious.html

The difference in confirmed and reported apparently is being put down to possible
"time lag between infection and symptom onset, delays in infected persons getting medical treatment, and the time needed to confirm cases with lab tests "could all affect overall recording and reporting,"

Kermit.de.frog

wakka12 wrote: »

Latest death reports make it look increasingly likely this is no more dangerous than the flu. The death rate outside Hubei remains at just 0.3%. Though in the city of Wuhan it is very high, sitting almost at SARS level, 5.5%, with a 25% severe complication rate.

You believe the CCP?

The rest of the world does not which is why China itself is being quarantined.

It is not because of 400 odd deaths.

It's because they are full of sh!t explaining it.

That's the truth.

It is FAR more serious than the CCP wants the world to know. But we know.

car_radio19834

wakka12 wrote: »

Latest death reports make it look increasingly likely this is no more dangerous than the flu. The death rate outside Hubei remains at just 0.3%. Though in the city of Wuhan it is very high, sitting almost at SARS level, 5.5%, with a 25% severe complication rate.

Looking at it in purely just death terms wouldn't be right.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

I dont know that you can put those stats together tbh. Too easy to add 2+2 and get 57

The 25% severe cases estimate comes from here
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/nih-dr-anthony-fauci-25percent-of-china-coronavirus-cases-very-serious.html

The difference in confirmed and reported apparently is being put down to possible
"time lag between infection and symptom onset, delays in infected persons getting medical treatment, and the time needed to confirm cases with lab tests "could all affect overall recording and reporting,"

If you don't put the numbers together, then there are something like 18,000 to 25,000 people in China in very serious condition requiring intensive medical care, but 75% of them are unreported or choosing to stay at home and die.

If you put them together, 5,000 people out of 20,000 are in serious condition, and another 55,000 to 80,000 are either unreported or are staying at home.

Pick whichever one you want to believe. It makes not a single iota of difference to me.

circadian

wakka12 wrote: »

Latest death reports make it look increasingly likely this is no more dangerous than the flu. The death rate outside Hubei remains at just 0.3%. Though in the city of Wuhan it is very high, sitting almost at SARS level, 5.5%, with a 25% severe complication rate.

I'd say a large reason why the death rate outside of Hubei isn't as high is because health services, at the moment, aren't under the same kind of stress and have the capacity to treat the majority of their severe cases.

Make no mistake, if this virus becomes a full blown pandemic with a runaway effect the mortality rate will be higher purely on the basis of health infrastructure being crippled by serious cases.

Kerala, probably the most developed Indian state has declared an emergency. I worry about other Indian states that do not have the same quality of medical resources, this could get a lot worse there.

Once again, it comes back to our own healthcare system. We have the expertise and technology to deal with this virus, but not on any large scale. If the authorities are not taking this as serious, which appears to be the case (we don't really know what's going on) then they are inviting a crisis that will cause another deep recession not to mention deaths that could have been avoided had some tough decisions been made early on.

I hope I'm wrong, but at the minute this looks like something that could get out of hand quickly due to the rate of spread and the fact that possibly up to 25% of those infected suffer from severe complications.

wakka12

4 new h2h transmissions in Singapore
Also 4 local thai people have been infected

64 people in Hong Kong have been hospitalised with what is suspected to be ncov, the first death of a patient has also occurred in Hong Kong
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-spore-reports-first-cases-of-local-transmission-4-out-of-6-new-cases-did-not
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/04/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-outbreak-death-toll-latest-news-update


Also I read an interesting thread on reddit that kind of put the scale of the threat into perspective. Hubei is the same population as Italy, imagine Italy had almost 15,000 people infected with a new virus and over 400 deaths in a few weeks? And600,700,800 more cases were now occurring in Spain, France, Switzerland, Croatia etc since then. And 20/25 cases in further afield areas like Ireland, Uk, norway. But because such a large area is all just called 'China' it doesnt feel like its a threat that has really spread over a large area, but it has. If the situation was like that in Europe youd say it was a disaster on our hands!

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Chinese Communist Party and their leader is looking mighty weak

Agreed. I'm hearing a lot more anger and criticism of the government that I would ever have heard previously. Both the local government and Beijing. The distinction is important because usually people would be angry at one or the other.

Take this new crazy angle to kill off peoples pets. Posters here go on about the eating of dog like it's a common thing, but Chinese people adore their pets. My friends who are married to Chinese women, all "laugh" at the scaling of affection in women's minds. Children, pets, parents, husband. It's a regular joke to be heard by those married in China. And it's true in a way. Their pets (mostly cats and dogs, sometimes pigeons, or snakes) are incredibly important to them. [I'm talking about the Chinese over 30.. young people rarely have any true affection for their pets].

In any case, between the negligence of local officials recommending medicine that doesn't work, the ineptitude of quarantine decisions or the new command to reduce the pet population (on the assumption that pets might transfer the virus), the government is generating a crap ton of negative attitudes that are unlikely to disappear quickly.

I've never believed that Chinese people wanted democracy, or the claims by posters from western countries harping on about the fall of the Chinese regime, but I can definitely see the seeds of their destruction being sown now during this crisis. They're behaving in such a retarded fashion which is surprising since they're usually pretty good at manipulating their own peoples buttons.

Absolutely crazy.

odyssey06

wakka12 wrote: »

Latest death reports make it look increasingly likely this is no more dangerous than the flu. The death rate outside Hubei remains at just 0.3%. Though in the city of Wuhan it is very high, sitting almost at SARS level, 5.5%, with a 25% severe complication rate.

That suggests to me it is infecting in such large numbers that it is overwhelming the capacity of medical services to deal with the complication rate?

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It is FAR more serious than the CCP wants the world to know. But we know.

No, you suspect. It's a pretty decent suspicion, but within the same post you mentioned about "fact"... at least be consistent and accurate in what you say.

Fact is... we don't know that the Chinese are being inaccurate on purpose, or whether they're inaccurate due to other reasons.

I suspect that there's a lot of confusion over there simply because they don't have the infrastructure in place to deal with this kind of thing. It's easy to sit back and judge when your own environment isn't under the same circumstances. I also suspect that the local party government officials are releasing inaccurate numbers to reduce their responsibility for what's happened.

But, sure, they could be lying through their teeth. We just don't know.

joseywhales

Do we know if there are confirmed deaths that resulted from h2h contact?

The potency of the disease seems very different for those originally infected in Wuhan, to those secondary infections.

Or at least i hope so, it is possible that the life cycle of the disease is much longer, perhaps it lasts for 2 months?! Do we know from those who have recovered when they were originally infected?

it's a giant information vacuum.

joseywhales

joseywhales wrote: »

Do we know if there are confirmed deaths that resulted from h2h contact?

The potency of the disease seems very different for those originally infected in Wuhan, to those secondary infections.

Or at least i hope so, it is possible that the life cycle of the disease is much longer, perhaps it lasts for 2 months?! Do we know from those who have recovered when they were originally infected?

it's a giant information vacuum.

The two deaths outside China were from people who were in Wuhan. As for deaths from h2h contact, that would be equal to total deaths minus one I guess. We don't know how many got directly exposed.

babybuilder

joseywhales wrote: »

Do we know if there are confirmed deaths that resulted from h2h contact?

The potency of the disease seems very different for those originally infected in Wuhan, to those secondary infections.

Or at least i hope so, it is possible that the life cycle of the disease is much longer, perhaps it lasts for 2 months?! Do we know from those who have recovered when they were originally infected?

it's a giant information vacuum.

That's my concern also. In one case, I think it was the German 33 yr old male, who tested positive for the virus when he recovered post symptomatic. Let's be honest here there is no way the Chinese as authorities would have reacted the way they have done unless this the the mother of all outbreaks. I pity the Chinese in those areas and those now in India. I really hope that we don't get a major outbreak here.

wakka12

joseywhales wrote: »

Do we know if there are confirmed deaths that resulted from h2h contact?

The potency of the disease seems very different for those originally infected in Wuhan, to those secondary infections.

Or at least i hope so, it is possible that the life cycle of the disease is much longer, perhaps it lasts for 2 months?! Do we know from those who have recovered when they were originally infected?

it's a giant information vacuum.

The vast majority of cases now today have had no history with the food market anymore so I presume at least some of the deaths are the result of h2h. There are too many of them now for it all to be linked directly to the market

Duke of Url

The first US confirmed case has been discharged from hospital in Washington state.

babybuilder

babybuilder wrote: »

Let's be honest here there is no way the Chinese as authorities would have reacted the way they have done unless this the the mother of all outbreaks.

"Y2K was an over-hyped false scare. Sure nothing happened. What a waste of time and money. "

"All this money wasted on counter-terrorism. Sure there are fek all terrorist attacks."

"there is no way the Chinese as authorities would have reacted the way they have done unless this the the mother of all outbreaks."


We won't know for a while yet but it is actually pretty plausible that China's reaction prevented the mother of all outbreaks rather than it just being the result of one that they're keeping quiet. Time will tell.

circadian

Have any of our esteemed political leaders said anything about this or are they all busy electioneering?

Duke of Url

Deleted User wrote: »

"Y2K was an over-hyped false scare. Sure nothing happened. What a waste of time and money. "

"All this money wasted on counter-terrorism. Sure there are fek all terrorist attacks."

"there is no way the Chinese as authorities would have reacted the way they have done unless this the the mother of all outbreaks."


We won't know for a while yet but it is actually pretty plausible that China's reaction prevented the mother of all outbreaks rather than it just being the result of one that they're keeping quiet. Time will tell.

Did you see anything like this where you are?

Signs outside restaurants in Hoi An, Vietnam, taken in January 2020.



https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-racism-fear-intl-hnk/index.html

Duke of Url

Duke of Url wrote: »

Did you see anything like this where you are?

Signs outside restaurants in Hoi An, Vietnam, taken in January 2020.

No, but I'm not in a tourist area, or a place where Chinese people live.

Fr_Dougal

Only 26 cases in Europe seems to be fairly well contained and the number isn’t rising quickly.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If you don't put the numbers together, then there are something like 18,000 to 25,000 people in China in very serious condition requiring intensive medical care, but 75% of them are unreported or choosing to stay at home and die.

If you put them together, 5,000 people out of 20,000 are in serious condition, and another 55,000 to 80,000 are either unreported or are staying at home.Pick whichever one you want to believe. It makes not a single iota of difference to me.

Nothing to do with believing anything. The estimated figure of total cases is just that- estimated. The 25% with "severe symptoms" are based on current confirmed case afaik. As stated little use adding two different figures and getting a Heinz 57 result.

Hande hoche!

1800_Ladladlad wrote: »

That's the spirit. Watching contagion myself.

Ordered the blu ray of outbreak. Think Contagion might be on Netflix Ireland, not 100% on that.

megatron989

Was only a few weeks ago that their where only a handful of cases in china, look how that turned out within a month. People act like it's grand, but imo we would need a miracle to dodge this bullet. The current infected outside of china have the luxury of well equiped hospitals and staff to care for them. What happens when the numbers of infected needing emergency help reaches, I dunno, 1000? 500?
If we had 50 here it would cripple our system never mind 500. Hospitals bursting at the seams as it is.
I'd say if it comes to Ireland, once it lands it'll be loose and their will be no stopping it until it burns out.
It's that exponential growth that scares me. Once she gets going your in trouble.

wakka12

More drastic government measures around the world
Singapore bans all school assemblies, camps, mass celebrations and other large group and communal activities from Wednesday (Feb 5)

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-assemblies-and-other-large-group-activities-in-schools-and-pre-schools-to-be

beans

Have any of the deaths been ethnically non-Chinese?

Yurt2

Another case in S Korea. Korean national who returned from Thailand on the 19th. Unclear if the h2h transmission happened in Thailand or Korea; looking like Thailand so far as the person is in a city with no previous cases.

wakka12

http://www.inmi.it/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Bollettino-medico-numero-5.pdf
Both cases in Italy have been rushed to intensive care for respiratory failure

Medical bulletin number 5 - February 4th, 2020

The two Chinese citizens from Wuhan city that tested positive for the new coronavirus, currently hospitalized at the National Institute for Infectious Diseases, in the last hours have had an aggravation of clinical conditions due to respiratory failure, as in other similar cases reported so far.

Therefore respiratory support in the intensive therapy unit was needed.

The patients are monitored continuously and undergo all treatments, including experimental antiviral drugs.

The current clinical conditions are compromised but stationary; the prognosis is being reserved.

To date, 26 patients have been discharged after negative test results.

At the moment 11 symptomatic patients coming from areas of China affected by the epidemic are hospitalized. All were tested for the new coronavirus, but are not yet confirmed.

As for the 20 asymptomatic people who have had contact with the positive Chinese couple, they continue to be under observation at the Institute.

They are all in good general condition and their health is of no concern.

All people of Chinese nationality currently hosted at the Institute are receiving great attention from the Institute community.

All of them are served meals typical of their Chinese culture and are assisted by voluntary mediators who are involved in facilitating communications.

Their permanence in the health facility follows the protocol that the hospital is used to ensure for all its patients.

In the event of changes in the clinical picture, immediate updates will be given.

Combined with a death in HK, and the american couple now hospitalsed in a worsened condition, perhaps the severity of the impact of the virus abroad was prematurely underestimated.

Graces7

megatron989 wrote: »

Was only a few weeks ago that their where only a handful of cases in china, look how that turned out within a month. People act like it's grand, but imo we would need a miracle to dodge this bullet. The current infected outside of china have the luxury of well equiped hospitals and staff to care for them. What happens when the numbers of infected needing emergency help reaches, I dunno, 1000? 500?
If we had 50 here it would cripple our system never mind 500. Hospitals bursting at the seams as it is.
I'd say if it comes to Ireland, once it lands it'll be loose and their will be no stopping it until it burns out.
It's that exponential growth that scares me. Once she gets going your in trouble.

The trolley count today is 640. " a dangerous and unacceptable figure" say INMO

silverharp

Hande hoche! wrote: »

Ordered the blu ray of outbreak. Think Contagion might be on Netflix Ireland, not 100% on that.

There is a 1970's tv show called Survivors, 90's remake too . The 70's one is up on Youtube

This sounds like a stupid question but I'll ask it anyway.. Can the severity of your typical flu or coronavirus be impacted by how much of the virus you actually get exposed to? Or does it all go the same way once it's inside you? I feel it's the latter.

whisky_galore

Duke of Url wrote: »

Did you see anything like this where you are?

Signs outside restaurants in Hoi An, Vietnam, taken in January 2020.



https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-racism-fear-intl-hnk/index.html

No love lost between Vietnamese and Chinese anyhow.

Graces7

silverharp wrote: »

There is a 1970's tv show called Survivors, 90's remake too . The 70's one is up on Youtube

A great series; watched it twice already

fritzelly

UK advises all British to leave China

igCorcaigh

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This sounds like a stupid question but I'll ask it anyway.. Can the severity of your typical flu or coronavirus be impacted by how much of the virus you actually get exposed to? Or does it all go the same way once it's inside you? I feel it's the latter.

Yes, amount of virus initially exposed to makes a difference in how transmissible it is, also on severity of illness AFAIK.

pc7

fritzelly wrote: »

UK advises all British to leave China

Wow, would that be unprecedented?

Fr_Dougal

fritzelly wrote: »

UK advises all British to leave China

First Europe, now China.

bb12

fritzelly wrote: »

UK advises all British to leave China

source?

Yurt2

Fairly drastic. Perhaps the UK government knows something about the spread of infections that others don't.

The UK would have a fairly generous amount of intelligence assets on the ground there so this is worth paying attention to.

joseywhales

pc7 wrote: »

Wow, would that be unprecedented?

Well since the last world war

4068ac1elhodqr

Deleted User wrote: »

This sounds like a stupid question but I'll ask it anyway.. Can the severity of your typical flu or coronavirus be impacted by how much of the virus you actually get exposed to? Or does it all go the same way once it's inside you? I feel it's the latter.

Would guesstimate once you have it, then you have it.

You never hear of someone who is HIVpos, having 'just a bit of it'.
They either have it or not, same would go for H1N1 and InfA/B etc.

The only variant would be how quickly your own immune system can make antibodies to fight off this viral infection (and prevent secondary bacterial infections) and thus progress to recovery stage, for that everyone is different.

Many folks reckon the best practical thing you can do to boost your immune system is to get a good nights sleep (full 8hrs). VitC+Zinc may also be useful.

fritzelly

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-britons-now-advised-to-leave-china-if-they-are-able-to-11926149