new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Yurt2

Deleted User wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BrianKolfage/status/1224912301481955334



https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/05/20/philippines-confirms-3rd-new-coronavirus-case?fbclid=IwAR0FjHWuvgit2_nFQqBUPtycJLVIxFQQ6BoWBjUYYlM3HlwfyEe1TuK3lEo


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7966081/Wuhan-medic-says-coronavirus-deaths-infections-reported.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline


I`ll just say that if China are lying about the numbers and it hits the world far worse than is expected then its game over for international trade for China.

Apart from being governed by a Marxist-Leninist party (leave aside that they love Audi and Gucci for the moment) whose natural instinct is to paper over problems, there's also the deeply ingrained Chinese cultural mindset of obfuscation and partial-truths when it comes to admitting failings.

The CCP holds the mandate of heaven (天命 - Tian ming). To them, they are not answerable or accountable to the people, journalists, foreigners and above all not foreign journalists. Might is right, they govern because they govern, and they will maintain that mandate until they are seen to not be powerful. Which is why incidents like this are so damaging - to admit that they are not mighty undermines their mandate of heaven. Lies will be stacked on top of lies as the truth is so unconscionable to the apparatus.

joseywhales

The problem now is that they are too big to fail, if this lasts for 6+months, expect massive recession, all the integrated manufacturing pipelines through china will fail, raw commodities will tank since their biggest customer is frozen, I don't even know the secondary impacts, will they start desperately pulling their numerous and massive international investments?

Absolute calamity if it doesn't come under control

Yurt2

joseywhales wrote: »

The problem now is that they are too big to fail, if this lasts for 6+months, expect massive recession, all the integrated manufacturing pipelines through china will fail, raw commodities will tank since their biggest customer is frozen, I don't even know the secondary impacts, will they start desperately pulling their numerous and massive international investments?

Absolute calamity if it doesn't come under control

This quarter is a write off already - it's probably the first quarter of recession since reform and opening up began. Even the year after Tiananmen Square massacre (where foreign businesses got out of the country en-masse) the economy didn't slip into recession.

A lot of unsustainable zombie companies propped up by patronage networks will possibly hit the wall. The trade war had the government burning through China's much vaunted dollar and other foreign currency reserves; this will probably burn through them further. A day of reckoning for the ridiculously overvalued property sector is probably not too far off also.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BrianKolfage/status/1224912301481955334

https://twitter.com/Michael_Yon/status/1224904449409179651

Politics or Coronavirus?

Nijmegen

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BrianKolfage/status/1224912301481955334



https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/05/20/philippines-confirms-3rd-new-coronavirus-case?fbclid=IwAR0FjHWuvgit2_nFQqBUPtycJLVIxFQQ6BoWBjUYYlM3HlwfyEe1TuK3lEo


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7966081/Wuhan-medic-says-coronavirus-deaths-infections-reported.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline


I`ll just say that if China are lying about the numbers and it hits the world far worse than is expected then its game over for international trade for China.

I sincerely doubt that. Too much money to be made!

snotboogie

little bess wrote: »

“It’s worth noting that the number of deaths in China rose by 65 from 425 on Tuesday to 490 today. That’s an increase of 15.3% compared with a percentage increase of 18% the day before. So perhaps there are signs that the rate of fatalities is slowing. The number was closer to 30% on some days last week.

Updated at 12.50am GMT”

From the guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/05/coronavirus-live-updates-in-china-wuhan-outbreak-death-toll-latest-news-update-evacuation-coronaviruses

I'm surprised the Guardian posted that. A fall from 18% to 15% from day to day says very little and I'm not sure comparisons can be made to a week ago when death numbers were still in double figures. Also dead bodies are not being tested due to a shortage of test kits. What would worry me is that Zhejiang is now implementing similar shut down measures that Hubei did two weeks ago. I would watch for shut down measures in China to track the spread rather than death or infected numbers which say more about the availability of test kits than it does about the spread of corona virus. I would take encouragement from the relatively slow increase of confirmed cases in Singapore, Hong Kong and Thailand, so far. All have less than 30 cases about two weeks out from their travel bans on Hubei. The spread in those countries will tell us a lot because they are being tracked from day one.

pc7

Is anyone picking up a few extra bits in their shopping, just in case? Its hard know what to think. Negative, no one really knows whats going on and numbers in China. Positive, outside of China spread seems slow and very few deaths.

pc7

pc7 wrote: »

Is anyone picking up a few extra bits in their shopping, just in case? Its hard know what to think. Negative, no one really knows whats going on and numbers in China. Positive, outside of China spread seems slow and very few deaths.

No harm to be have a full fridge and keep it stocked up over the next few weeks just to be prudent. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Anyone should be able to manage a couple of weeks quarantine with a full fridge and cupboard, even if they rationed a bit right? I.e no need to panic and stock a room floor to ceiling with beans and shotgun shells

PS I've stocked up on food and disinfectant wipes, hand sanitizer

car_radio19834

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1224932170982215680

tom1ie

Deleted User wrote: »

No harm to be have a full fridge and keep it stocked up over the next few weeks just to be prudent. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Anyone should be able to manage a couple of weeks quarantine with a full fridge and cupboard, even if they rationed a bit right? I.e no need to panic and stock a room floor to ceiling with beans and shotgun shells

PS I've stocked up on food and disinfectant wipes, hand sanitizer

Good stuff.
What about water in case the power grid goes down, or am I taking things too far!:D

pc7

Deleted User wrote: »

No harm to be have a full fridge and keep it stocked up over the next few weeks just to be prudent. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

Yeah, feel a bit crazy considering it but sure it'd be stuff we'd use anyhow. Won't cause any harm.

odyssey06

Whats the all deaths figure for Wuhan?
Really seems to be some massaging of figures going on in terms of recorded cause of death.

RebelButtMunch

pc7 wrote: »

Yeah, feel a bit crazy considering it but sure it'd be stuff we'd use anyhow. Won't cause any harm.

I'd say at the moment it's OTT. Not even a case here yet. I'm sure there will be some at some stage. Plenty of time to stock up if needs be.

snotboogie

odyssey06 wrote: »

Whats the all deaths figure for Wuhan?
Really seems to be some massaging of figures going on in terms of recorded cause of death.

It's not massaging, they don't have enough test kits, I think they are limited to 3-4k per day at the moment. Both the deaths and infected figures are likely much higher across China than reported.

Fr_Dougal

pc7 wrote: »

Is anyone picking up a few extra bits in their shopping, just in case? Its hard know what to think. Negative, no one really knows whats going on and numbers in China. Positive, outside of China spread seems slow and very few deaths.

No, apart from the type of junk you’d get on AliExpress, we’ll be okay over here. We won’t see anything like the situation that they have over in China.

No need to panic.

givyjoe

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

No, apart from the type of junk you’d get on AliExpress, we’ll be okay over here. We won’t see anything like the situation that they have over in China.

No need to panic.

Genuinely curious how you are coming to that conclusion?

pc7

pc7 wrote: »

Is anyone picking up a few extra bits in their shopping, just in case? Its hard know what to think. Negative, no one really knows whats going on and numbers in China. Positive, outside of China spread seems slow and very few deaths.

I keep a full freezer and lots of tins in the cupboard during normal times.

Ive two boxes of face masks arriving next week (though one box I'm posting to my girlfriend -in Shanghai)

I'm not a full on prepper but something like this reminds me why I should be.

tom1ie

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

I'd say at the moment it's OTT. Not even a case here yet. I'm sure there will be some at some stage. Plenty of time to stock up if needs be.

problem being, if everyone gets the same idea at the same time you get panic buying and possibly infected people mixing with non infected, and then the problem intensifies.
so maybe no harm gradually building up the reserves of spam and corned beef!!

Quantum Erasure

you can never have enough spam...

Fr_Dougal

givyjoe wrote: »

Genuinely curious how you are coming to that conclusion?

Less than 30 cases in Europe, hospitals are not overwhelmed, travel has been restricted, and we have more awareness of the virus.

If the number of cases outside of China were doubling each day I’d be worried, but they’re staying pretty stable.

odyssey06

snotboogie wrote: »

It's not massaging, they don't have enough test kits, I think they are limited to 3-4k per day at the moment. Both the deaths and infected figures are likely much higher across China than reported.

They should be reporting all deaths, especially if anything related to pneumonia\respiratory failure - together with the stats for previous years, a spike will be obvious.

pc7

Deleted User wrote: »

Ive two boxes of face masks arriving next week (though one box I'm posting to my girlfriend -in Shanghai)

.

Oh feck Denartha, that's tough having someone over there. Is there any way she can get out? How is it where she is?

givyjoe

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Less than 30 cases in Europe, hospitals are not overwhelmed, travel has been restricted, and we have more awareness of the virus.

If the number of cases outside of China were doubling each day I’d be worried, but they’re staying pretty stable.

But that's because we are now, where China was at the beginning of December, i.e. the first few cases. Hopefully it doesn't spread as easily or rather as quickly, as it has it China. Thats what the real worry is, too many sick/critically ill at the same time.

We'll see in two weeks whether we should be really worried here or not.

Graces7

tom1ie wrote: »

problem being, if everyone gets the same idea at the same time you get panic buying and possibly infected people mixing with non infected, and then the problem intensifies.
so maybe no harm gradually building up the reserves of spam and corned beef!!

Not into spam or corned beef, but I as routine keep in dry goods and tins to last a couple of months. Rice, pasta, flour...dried milk etc … coffee! Being housebound and in a remote place where we can get cut off makes this simply routine. Cat food is a major issue.

And don't omit basic and prescription meds and toiletries. Not panic; just common sense.

tom1ie

givyjoe wrote: »

But that's because we are now, where China was at the beginning of December, i.e. the first few cases. Hopefully it doesn't spread as easily or rather as quickly, as it has it China. Thats what the real worry is, too many sick/critically ill at the same time.

We'll see in two weeks whether we should be really worried here or not.

yeah this is a good point, but to be honest I'm going to build up my stockpile of food, water and medication over the next two weeks, just in case.
People can call ya mad and crazy all they want until **** hits the fan and then all of a sudden your prepared and wise.

tom1ie

Graces7 wrote: »

Not into spam or corned beef, but I as routine keep in dry goods and tins to last a couple of months. Rice, pasta, flour...dried milk etc … coffee! Being housebound and in a remote place where we can get cut off makes this simply routine. Cat food is a major issue.

And don't omit basic and prescription meds and toiletries. Not panic; just common sense.

exactly.

gozunda

There is no reason to panic

according to the head of the World Health Organisation

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/02/05/there-is-no-reason-to-panic

Well that's official then ...

I believe that's the same lad who appointed Robert Mugabe as a WHO Goodwill Health Ambassador for Africa. Following which the editor in chief of the Lancet, called Tedros a 'Dictator-General' :pac:

s7ryf3925pivug

Stock market is up slightly following an announcement by a Chinese university that they have found drugs that effectively treat the virus.

The assertion has not been verified. Don't know if it is anything related to HIV drugs, which people were suggesting seemed to be effective.

silverharp

We would generally have at least a week’s supply of food on hand . I wouldn’t go overboard but no harm having some extra high calorie food on hand , might get a few kg of butter and stick it in the freezer and I would have enough basic pasta and rice dishes for a week or 2 . I cant see the shops emptying , even during the “Beast from the East” it was only the fresh food and “bread” that disappeared.

car_radio19834

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1224993827175436290

Ulysses Gaze

car_radio19834 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1224993827175436290

People like this need to be charged with endangering the public health and given a minimum of 5 years in prison.

Tacitus Kilgore

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

People like this need to be charged with endangering the public health and given a minimum of 5 years in prison.

Why 5 years?

car_radio19834

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

People like this need to be charged with endangering the public health and given a minimum of 5 years in prison.

Why are people so eager to escape?

cloudatlas

https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2020/02/04/central-china-coronavirus-quarantine-lockdown/?fbclid=IwAR2OuKEZL9CTP6a4BsNx8voOVq8fVK4pIn2v0XVy5m2UszOKPFMHvsaEJrk

Good article written by a Chinese Londoner who is stuck in Shiyan.

cloudatlas

car_radio19834 wrote: »

Why are people so eager to escape?

Fear, dying without your family near you etc.,

wakka12

cloudatlas wrote: »

Fear, dying without your family near you etc.,

Probably a bit of denial as well, not wanting to find out they have it. Coronavirus, however lethal or not it is, has a lot of scary connotations at the mo, hammed up by the media who refer to as as the 'deadly coronavirus' in every article

Kermit.de.frog

Pregnant women infected with the new coronavirus may be able to pass it to their unborn child, doctors at the Wuhan Children Hospital said, according to state broadcaster CCTV.

The doctors said it was possible after an infected coronavirus patient gave birth on Sunday.

Her baby was tested 30 hours later and confirmed to have the virus, the broadcaster said.

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0205/1113224-coronavirus/

circadian

I'd almost prefer to be on one of those ships, at least if you're severe you'll get airlifted to a hospital and if it all goes to **** at least you're on a ship.

Duke of Url

Shouldn't the Government be sending a letter to every home in the Country with the Protocol to staying safe and what to do if you experience symptoms ?

The HSE says the Following

If you have recently been in mainland China or may have been in contact with coronavirus
Phone your local Department of Public Health if in the past 14 days you have:
returned from mainland China - this does not include if you have only been in Hong Kong or Macau
been in contact with a person who has coronavirus
been in a hospital or healthcare centre where people are being treated for coronavirus
They will tell you what you need to do next.

Yet this Guy does the following

Dublin Live has learned that the man’s GP phoned the hospital ahead after he presented at his south Dublin doctor's surgery, and he was admitted to St James’s yesterday evening.

ohnonotgmail

The BBC interviewed one of the passengers on the cruise ship quarantied in Japan. They were complaining that they were confined to their cabin. The ship has already had 10 confirmed cases. I'm not sure i would want to be mingling with the other passengers. They were also complaining that the food was not of the same standard. That is the free food they are now being given versus the food they had paid a lot of money for as part of their cruise.

odyssey06

car_radio19834 wrote: »

Why are people so eager to escape?

Yeah I don't get it... surely one of the best places to be would be in a hospital in Austria getting dedicated treatment should you have it.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No harm to be have a full fridge and keep it stocked up over the next few weeks just to be prudent. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Anyone should be able to manage a couple of weeks quarantine with a full fridge and cupboard, even if they rationed a bit right? I.e no need to panic and stock a room floor to ceiling with beans and shotgun shells

PS I've stocked up on food and disinfectant wipes, hand sanitizer

I have brandy, whisky, Bacardi, vodka, gin, lemons, ice, tonic, coke and two tubs of quality street, turkey and ham in the freezer from Christmas and aunt bessies Yorkshire puds. Oh, and a couple of pots noodles, tins of soup and a tin of beans.

I’m golden

RebelButtMunch

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I have brandy, whisky, Bacardi, vodka, gin, lemons, ice, tonic, coke and two tubs of quality street, turkey and ham in the freezer from Christmas and aunt bessies Yorkshire puds. Oh, and a couple of pots noodles, tins of soup and a tin of beans.

I’m golden

Nice! Ive a load of tuborg in the shed from Christmas.

creditcarder

fritzelly wrote: »

Alas there probably is thousands dead confined to their homes or barricaded in

Perhaps, but I have heard that the police are going door to door in the locked down cities.

Graces7

silverharp wrote: »

We would generally have at least a week’s supply of food on hand . I wouldn’t go overboard but no harm having some extra high calorie food on hand , might get a few kg of butter and stick it in the freezer and I would have enough basic pasta and rice dishes for a week or 2 . I cant see the shops emptying , even during the “Beast from the East” it was only the fresh food and “bread” that disappeared.

I think the concerns are that if serious panic buying started, you would need to be among folk who might be infected, as well as basics running out?

eg if there were need of quarantine etc? Even as a precaution.

This situation is an unknown one here?

creditcarder

joseywhales wrote: »

The problem now is that they are too big to fail, if this lasts for 6+months, expect massive recession, all the integrated manufacturing pipelines through china will fail, raw commodities will tank since their biggest customer is frozen, I don't even know the secondary impacts, will they start desperately pulling their numerous and massive international investments?

Absolute calamity if it doesn't come under control

They are going to have a revolt if the people go hungry. The famine is still in the memory of a lot of people, and the government is seen as a necessary 'evil' (for lack of a better word)


It's actually an interesting sociology at play in China vs other countries. Sure, the government is powerful, the army is powerful, the survellience is powerful, but 1.6 Billion people who aren't allowed to complain (to an extent)? How in the world can you stop that many people if things kick off



It'll just explode suddenly imo, but, realisticly, that's not going to happen as there will just be people being replaced.

Fr_Dougal

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Less than 30 cases in Europe, hospitals are not overwhelmed, travel has been restricted, and we have more awareness of the virus.

It's only a matter of time before someone wanders into A&E in Tallaght with a scratchy throat and coughs. Sits around in the waiting room, deemed non-urgent stays on a trolley for 3 days, results come back, she's infected and has now infected 40 other people.

Then we have problems.

Oh feck Denartha, that's tough having someone over there. Is there any way she can get out? How is it where she is?

She was due to visit in 2 weeks time but all the airlines have cancelled flights, so that is being postponed. She's just at home, rarely going out. Learning to love Pasta. She doesn't have a TV, so reads a lot.

On the one hand, I'd love forced isolation - with my 40" screen TV and 2 terrabytes of movies/series + Netflix. I've been in her apartment, the entire place is smaller than my living room, and my living room is not huge.

She's worried and doesn't trust the CCP.

RebelButtMunch

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

Nice! Ive a load of tuborg in the shed from Christmas.

Tuborg?

Jaysus. I think I'd rather have the virus.

Kermit.de.frog

All arrivals from mainland China to Hong Kong to be compulsorily quarantined from now on.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1224991480537931776

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/05/coronavirus-live-updates-in-china-wuhan-outbreak-death-toll-latest-news-update-evacuation-coronaviruses

humberklog

Hmmm. I'm catching up on this story by reading Board.ie I'm sitting in the smoking area (no masks, lots of coughers) in Hanoi airport waiting on an internal flight.

Shoulda subscribed to the thread.