new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Rhys Essien

Suspected cases now in Cork and Kerry.

https://twitter.com/echolivecork/status/1225169194871861248?s=19

wakka12

Those 'suspected' cases almost always turn out to be nothing, every cold and flu is being called corona. I saw a thing on reddit today the UK has had 700 negative tests or something , I think India has had about 1,000 negative tests

fritzelly

A lot of suspected cases popping up now (not just Ireland) but especially in the US
This is the 2 week date isn't it?

givyjoe

bb12 wrote: »

Holy crap...it's possible the virus can survive on a surface up to 28 days or maybe even longer?! how on earth can you fight against something like that....

With huge trucks carrying disinfectant canons. That's obviously why those trucks were out spraying the streets.

wakka12

Two cases in Hong Kong in critical condition
Three family members who didnt recently visit mainland China have also been infected
https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/11/216044/Family-of-three-with-no-travel-history-infected

I would imagine Hong Kong is one place that is bound to become full scale epidemic very soon, no containing something in a population that dense

bodhrandude

I hoping not Galway next the timing couldn't be as worse as a General Election and the Opening Party for the European City of Culture kicking off on Saturday, lots of folks in town. Has there been any reports in Scotland yet?

Fr_Dougal

There are currently 27,602 confirmed cases worldwide, including 564 fatalities.

wakka12

Now over 1,000 recovered in China

Would be interesting to see the outcome of the first batch of200 or 300 patients have got on since their admission at the start of the epidemic. Might give a clearer picture. Average time spent in hospital with the disease, until death or recovery, is 21 days I think, so should have a large sample now.

sweetie

Spoke to a doctor from the Mater tonight who said they had a patient in isolation. Just mentioned in passing as I was buying an item from her.

Timberrrrrrrr

sweetie wrote: »

Spoke to a doctor from the Mater tonight who said they had a patient in isolation. Just mentioned in passing as I was buying an item from her.

Your doctor was selling you stuff?

sweetie

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Your doctor was selling you stuff?

It was an adverts deal, when I met her near her work I mentioned the virus, and she said there was a person in isolation there.

Edit: may have been referring to this but I took it as currently;

https://www.newstalk.com/news/man-observation-dublin-hospital-suspected-coronavirus-960696

Timberrrrrrrr

sweetie wrote: »

It was an adverts deal, when I met her near her work I mentioned the virus, and she said there was a person in isolation there.

Ag right so, a random stranger.

Fr_Dougal

sweetie wrote: »

It was an adverts deal, when I met her near her work I mentioned the virus, and she said there was a person in isolation there.

Edit: may have been referring to this but I took it as currently;

https://www.newstalk.com/news/man-observation-dublin-hospital-suspected-coronavirus-960696

Were you buying black market face masks?

bodhrandude

sweetie wrote: »

It was an adverts deal, when I met her near her work I mentioned the virus, and she said there was a person in isolation there.

Edit: may have been referring to this but I took it as currently;

https://www.newstalk.com/news/man-observation-dublin-hospital-suspected-coronavirus-960696

Is the Mater and St James the same hospital, or is that two unconfirmed in Dublin.

Fr_Dougal

bodhrandude wrote: »

Is the Mater and St James the same hospital, or is that two unconfirmed in Dublin.

Separate.

There's no signs of this virus in James.

laurah591

Any word on the suspected St James case.... that's over 24 hours now?

wakka12

With it approaching the month mark now since the first death by coronavirus surely there must be a better idea of how dangerous it is.
Apparently China expereince about 92,000 deaths in a winter season due to flu. Most deaths occur in November, December, Jan, Feb, March. So you'd expect about 18400 deaths across mainland china from flu per winter month. Hubei is 60 million people which is 4% of China's population. Youd expect roughly 736 deaths in HUbei from seasonal flu this month. Its 4 days off a month, since the first death from coronavirus occurred, and 549 have died. Granted it will probably be about another 60 or so deaths a day for these lasy 4 days so it will probably total about 780 . Almost the exact same as seasonal flu. I suppose you've to take into account that flu may have infected far more people though

circadian

I think it's the liklihood of complications with this vs flu is the difference. It appears to be moving more easily than the flu and I wonder when herd immunity will begin to slow the movement. It certainly appears to be much more potent amongst over 60's and since it's a complete unknown then it'll be tracked much more keenly than seasonal flu.

fritzelly

Hey President XI

ChikiChiki

car_radio19834 wrote: »

And they'll get it too. Mad how billions just appears for things like fires and this.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1225081513307447301

Mad that amount is still a fraction of our children's hospital.

s7ryf3925pivug

sweetie wrote: »

Spoke to a doctor from the Mater tonight who said they had a patient in isolation. Just mentioned in passing as I was buying an item from her.

Did they say they had coronavirus though - or even if it was suspected?

I was in isolation with my wife in the maternity hospital here because of flu. Pregnant women getting sick is generally more serious

creditcarder

wakka12 wrote: »

With it approaching the month mark now since the first death by coronavirus surely there must be a better idea of how dangerous it is.
Apparently China expereince about 92,000 deaths in a winter season due to flu. Most deaths occur in November, December, Jan, Feb, March. So you'd expect about 18400 deaths across mainland china from flu per winter month. Hubei is 60 million people which is 4% of China's population. Youd expect roughly 736 deaths in HUbei from seasonal flu this month. Its 4 days off a month, since the first death from coronavirus occurred, and 549 have died. Granted it will probably be about another 60 or so deaths a day for these lasy 4 days so it will probably total about 780 . Almost the exact same as seasonal flu. I suppose you've to take into account that flu may have infected far more people though

I'm curious where you got those figures. Eh, I imagine a new virus will always cause more deaths in the beginning.



So, what's going on with the created anxiety in the media? It's good to play it safe, but there has been some exagerrated information. I imaigne it's just for money in contrary to all my theories tbh.

car_radio19834

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1225188709458489345

creditcarder

wakka12 wrote: »

Two cases in Hong Kong in critical condition
Three family members who didnt recently visit mainland China have also been infected
https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/11/216044/Family-of-three-with-no-travel-history-infected

I would imagine Hong Kong is one place that is bound to become full scale epidemic very soon, no containing something in a population that dense

Good timing with how Hong Kong wasn't screening patients. Conspiracy theories aside, there is something very off that such a city wasn't screening arrivals.

wakka12

creditcarder wrote: »

I'm curious where you got those figures. Eh, I imagine a new virus will always cause more deaths in the beginning.



So, what's going on with the created anxiety in the media? It's good to play it safe, but there has been some exagerrated information. I imaigne it's just for money in contrary to all my theories tbh.

Which figures>? Somebody posted that 92,000 deaths occur from flu in China a while back, which I was surprised by, they also posted a link to a source about it.

creditcarder

wakka12 wrote: »

Which figures>? Somebody posted that 92,000 deaths occur from flu in China a while back, which I was surprised by, they also posted a link to a source about it.

That is strange. I thought it was something absurd like 82 :P



Honestly, I think we can multiply any official flue figure by at least ten due to all the factors listed in this debacle and just local officials not wanting to give a bad name.

sweetie

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Did they say they had coronavirus though - or even if it was suspected?

I was in isolation with my wife in the maternity hospital here because of flu. Pregnant women getting sick is generally more serious

When she couldn't meet me yesterday due to her shift, today in passing I said 'this coronavirus is getting worrying, what do you think?' and she said something like 'we have someone in isolation in the mater.' I assumed it was the case I'd heard mentioned but when I checked this thread I see that case is in James's. So possibly suspected but probably nothing to it, hopefully.

daheff

Dante7 wrote: »

Completely hypothetical, but if a virus was engineered to be mainly Chinese race specific, decimating the elderly, the Chinese leadership would be the main suspects..

I was thinking about this possibility....and completely unfounded and 100% speculation...thought to myself, what if this is a disease they are engineering to release in Hong Kong...then come to the rescue with an engineered cure? HK people are then so thankful they let China take over??

But the virus escaped early and they haven't fully engineered it and the cure...so it's now running amok.

s7ryf3925pivug

daheff wrote: »

I was thinking about this possibility....and completely unfounded and 100% speculation...thought to myself, what if this is a disease they are engineering to release in Hong Kong...then come to the rescue with an engineered cure? HK people are then so thankful they let China take over??

But the virus escaped early and they haven't fully engineered it and the cure...so it's now running amok.

Completely hypothetical, but what if extra terrestrial Godzilla monkeys were experimenting on us, and then somebody found out the truth and the CIA psychics something something.

macapaca

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Completely hypothetical, but what if extra terrestrial Godzilla monkeys were experimenting on us, and then somebody found out the truth and the CIA psychics something something.

It's time to drop the nukes

creditcarder

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Completely hypothetical, but what if extra terrestrial Godzilla monkeys were experimenting on us, and then somebody found out the truth and the CIA psychics something something.

CT aside, having the virus in Hong Kong would suit China quite well, and they are not screening people coming in.



I think it's just good timing for the CCP

SeaBreezes

wakka12 wrote: »

Which figures>? Somebody posted that 92,000 deaths occur from flu in China a while back, which I was surprised by, they also posted a link to a source about it.

creditcarder wrote: »

CT aside, having the virus in Hong Kong would suit China quite well, and they are not screening people coming in.



I think it's just good timing for the CCP

Just saw this on twitter: The director of Wuhan Disease Control and Prevention Center stated in public on Jan.19, 2020 that no related cases have been found among close contacts and that the new coronavirus is not highly infectious
The CCP has been concealing the epidemic all the time

I wonder if they couldn't detect it? 2 week incubation? Or hiding figures?


Video on this ladies tweets:
https://mobile.twitter.com/jenniferatntd

Fr_Dougal

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

There are currently 27,602 confirmed cases worldwide, including 564 fatalities.

28,276 confirmed cases worldwide, including 565 fatalities...numbers just in now. Further jump in confirmed, all in the space of an hour or so.

creditcarder

Curious about the Yokohama issue. I mean how long was the carrier on the boat for vs how many people are infected?



https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200205/k10012273171000.html


It seems quite small imo.

wakka12

10 more people on the boat in Japan have been diagnosed, total 20 now. Will be a very interesting sample study of the effects, all infected roughly the same time

creditcarder

wakka12 wrote: »

10 more people on the boat in Japan have been diagnosed, total 20 now. Will be a very interesting sample study of the effects, all infected roughly the same time

Imo, it's not looking too bad. The tests started on Monday, the dude got off maybe a few days ago and had to wait to be tested, so it doesn't seem to be quite as spreadable as people are saying and I kind of wonder if it spreadable asympoteticlly.

Motherof123

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Coronavirus-fears-at-Cork-University-Hospital-Young-male-is-put-in-isolation-after-showing-symptoms-of-the-deadly-virus-d50a881f-d786-43d6-9e99-0cdbba02739b-ds

Motherof123

Coronavirus fears at Cork University Hospital; Young male is put in isolation after showing symptoms of the deadly virus

wakka12

creditcarder wrote: »

Imo, it's not looking too bad. The tests started on Monday, the dude got off maybe a few days ago and had to wait to be tested, so it doesn't seem to be quite as spreadable as people are saying and I kind of wonder if it spreadable asympoteticlly.

How does 1 person infecting (at least, so far) 20 others not seem spreadable??

4068ac1elhodqr

The recent chart showing 27.4k from 20mins ago is already out of date, and the 5th of Feb isn't technically fully over yet.

wakka12

The statistics are for the day before so it is 27k on the 4th of feb

Kermit.de.frog

Motherof123 wrote: »

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Coronavirus-fears-at-Cork-University-Hospital-Young-male-is-put-in-isolation-after-showing-symptoms-of-the-deadly-virus-d50a881f-d786-43d6-9e99-0cdbba02739b-ds

We'll have to do a Wuhan on Cork.

bb1234567

bodhrandude

The Latest updates from the Guardian.

Small Canada town prepares for the arrival of 200 Coronavirus evacuees, among other stories.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/06/coronavirus-live-updates-in-china-wuhan-coronaviruses-outbreak-death-toll-latest-update-news

4068ac1elhodqr

bodhrandude wrote: »

The Latest updates from the Guardian.
Small Canada town prepares for the arrival of 200 Coronavirus evacuees, among other stories.

Usually best to avoid the smaller niche minority left-media sources such as the Guardian.

Best source for 'flu news' would be a subject multi-source int'l aggregator e.g.
https://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Hot+Topics/China+Coronavirus+Outbreak?type=ln

Be aware though the 'most read' category are often the more dramatic or conspiracy type articles, simply as they make better headlines or click bait, and sell newspapers quicker at the stands. Still plenty to choose from, and updates roll in every 5mins.

bodhrandude

joseywhales

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Did they say they had coronavirus though - or even if it was suspected?

I was in isolation with my wife in the maternity hospital here because of flu. Pregnant women getting sick is generally more serious

One pregnant lady isolated in a hospital here in tamil nadu for testing. Lot of people starting to wear masks around now. In fairness there is some serious lag between live infection numbers and the reality. If she is tested, which may take all day, found positive, it would probably be reported 48 hours after presenting, I don't really know the mechanism.

Kermit.de.frog

Nanchang becomes the latest large Chinese city to introduce severe restrictions on movement. One member of each family must be nominated to leave their homes for goods once every two days.

joseywhales

joseywhales wrote: »

One pregnant lady isolated in a hospital here in tamil nadu for testing. Lot of people starting to wear masks around now. In fairness there is some serious lag between live infection numbers and the reality. If she is tested, which may take all day, found positive, it would probably be reported 48 hours after presenting, I don't really know the mechanism.

Yea assuming the first test is positive, earlier reports were showing it was taking 4 tests on some people to show up.