new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

s7ryf3925pivug

I wonder if Ireland can close its borders to other EU states in the event of the virus taking hold in Europe?

Free travel between states is part of the EU concept. We are not part of the Schengen area, so we still operate border checks, but that doesn't mean we can turn away other EU citizens.

I wonder how political parties might act in response to an outbreak in general. So sudden that I doubt any of them have any official position. I'd still like to hear the leaders being asked though.

Graces7

wakka12 wrote: »

80% over 60, wow, and with diseases, why is China going so ape**** over this disease if it is kills mostly those who are already suspectible to death from seasonal flu.

So old folk are???

tonysopprano

We can't close our borders to afghan, somali, albanian, georgian, pakastani, chinese or a host of other illegal migrants. How do you expect to close to legal visitors

s7ryf3925pivug

Fine Gael see a solution to the pension crisis.
Fianna Fail pay private developers 13 billion for a hospital made of shipping containers that is in fact never built.

https://mobile.twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1225267874303967232

Lab with the ability to diagnose 10,000 tests a day just built

Cody montana

tonysopprano wrote: »

We can't close our borders to afghan, somali, albanian, georgian, pakastani, chinese or a host of other illegal migrants. How do you expect to close to legal visitors

Well that’s just nonsense.

Graces7

Way back in 1665 in a village called Eyam in Derbyshire , England, a visitor brough plague in; fleas on dirty cloth.

The village put itself into total quarantine to avoid spreading a lethal disease, the Great Plague, to the rest of the country, No one left and many died by staying, as they were not then infected but could have spread it

A poignant article / BBC programme. " Eyam plague; the village of the damned"

This situation we have now reminded me of this. And shocking figures re Plague still killing folk.

Yurt2

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Fine Gael see a solution to the pension crisis.
Fianna Fail pay private developers 13 billion for a hospital made of shipping containers that is in fact never built.

Labour set up a quango for coronavirus advocacy while at the same time encouraging its spread to keep the quango going. Give all their union mates jobs on the executive at 100k.



Greens want compostible body bags, and propose a tax on cremation.


SocDems claim the virus is racist as the name sounds vaguely Mexican, will form Oireachtas committee on proposed name change. Also considering a subsidized scheme to infect more Irish people as Asians are disproportionately affected.



All senior Sinn Fein members contracted the virus but are reported to be receiving excellent care in Havana, Cuba. Mary Lou claims she is in Templeouge at a salsa themed charity quiz via Skype call to a journalist.

Duke of Url

So now we have suspected cases in Dublin, Kerry and Cork

Dublin

A Chinese man put in isolation in St James's Hospital in Dublin on Tuesday for the disease is also continuing to be tested.

Kerry

On Wednesday there was also fears of a suspected case in Kerry, it’s understood a patient is being treated for breathing difficulties at University Hospital Kerry in Tralee.

The woman, who is understood to be of Chinese origin, may have been in contact with people who recently travelled from her home country.

Cork

A young man has been placed in isolation at Cork University Hospital with a suspected case of the killer coronavirus.

The man, who is believed to be in his 20s, displayed symptoms of the disease after recently returning from China.

All listed in the Mirror.ie
https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/young-man-put-isolation-suspected-21440956

Boggles

Fire them into the sea!

s7ryf3925pivug

Even assuming reported figures are honest and accurate, the actual number infected is likely to be four times the number of confirmed cases. This is because of the fate of spread and the time between infection and confirmed diagnosis.

On the other hand, the same lag will be present between successful counter-measures and seeing a slowdown in the numbers of new confirmed diagnoses.

odyssey06

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Even assuming reported figures are honest and accurate

I think they are an accurate count of the number dead who tested positive for coronavirus. I don't think they are honest in that we need to see the numbers of deaths for pneumonia and related respiratory conditions versus previous years.

I think the reported deaths are just the tip of the iceberg - I'm basing that on the reports coming out of China, the reaction of the Chinese and Hong Kong authorities, and the UK and other western governments.

Duke of Url

odyssey06 wrote: »

I think they are an accurate count of the number dead who tested positive for coronavirus. I don't think they are honest in that we need to see the numbers of deaths for pneumonia and related respiratory conditions versus previous years.

I think the reported deaths are just the tip of the iceberg - I'm basing that on the reports coming out of China, the reaction of the Chinese and Hong Kong authorities, and the UK and other western governments.

Do you not think its odd that the Total Death figures work out at 2% in relation to the Total Confirmed every day +/- 0.05?

Duke of Url

21/01/2020 22/01/2020 23/01/2020 24/01/2020 25/01/2020 26/01/2020 27/01/2020 28/01/2020 29/01/2020 30/01/2020 31/01/2020 01/02/2020 02/02/2020 03/02/2020 04/02/2020 05/02/2020
Confirmed 446 579 844 1312 2015 2801 4579 6061 7816 9821 11948 14551 17387 20626 24553 28229
Deaths 6 8 14 25 40 57 64 87 105 213 259 304 362 426 492 565
% Death 1.35% 1.38% 1.66% 1.91% 1.99% 2.03% 1.40% 1.44% 1.34% 2.17% 2.17% 2.09% 2.08% 2.07% 2.00% 2.00%

pc7

Surely it has to be positive that we aren't seeing huge growth in numbers so far out side of China?

RebelButtMunch

Duke of Url wrote: »

21/01/2020 22/01/2020 23/01/2020 24/01/2020 25/01/2020 26/01/2020 27/01/2020 28/01/2020 29/01/2020 30/01/2020 31/01/2020 01/02/2020 02/02/2020 03/02/2020 04/02/2020 05/02/2020
Confirmed 446 579 844 1312 2015 2801 4579 6061 7816 9821 11948 14551 17387 20626 24553 28229
Deaths 6 8 14 25 40 57 64 87 105 213 259 304 362 426 492 565
% Death 1.35% 1.38% 1.66% 1.91% 1.99% 2.03% 1.40% 1.44% 1.34% 2.17% 2.17% 2.09% 2.08% 2.07% 2.00% 2.00%

Isn't the argument that the confirmed case number is limited by the number of tests they are doing? If they could test more, the death % would be lower.

givyjoe

pc7 wrote: »

Surely it has to be positive that we aren't seeing huge growth in numbers so far out side of China?

Positive, so far.. China had a pretty big headstart on this since early December. We're only what, two/three weeks into cases outside of China?

odyssey06

Duke of Url wrote: »

Do you not think its odd that the Total Death figures work out at 2% in relation to the Total Confirmed every day +/- 0.05?

I do now...

Yurt2

I don't think we can have particular confidence that they are declaring the cause of death correctly. Apparently people are being admitted to hospitals ill, not being tested due to lack of kits, and when they are passed the cause of death is attributed to a secondary cause like pnuemonia.

car_radio19834

This is our chance to get rid of Cork.

Varik

pc7 wrote: »

Surely it has to be positive that we aren't seeing huge growth in numbers so far out side of China?

China knows what they have on their hands, you get a cold in the wrong part of china they're testing you. Even then there's a limit to how many they can diagnose.

Whereas everywhere else it's being limited to ports of entry and the odd out of the norm confined outbreak that needs to be investigated.

Might be that they're just aren't finding it.

volchitsa

Yurt! wrote: »

I don't think we can have particular confidence that they are declaring the cause of death correctly. Apparently people are being admitted to hospitals ill, not being tested due to lack of kits, and when they are passed the cause of death is attributed to a secondary cause like pnuemonia.

If that is happening in any numbers, then death rates from pneumonia etc will have spiked. Are they going to refuse to make those available while publishing (official) death rates from this virus? Would be pretty dodgy looking, surely?

Rashers Big Log

Duke of Url wrote: »

So now we have suspected cases in Dublin, Kerry and Cork

Dublin



Kerry



Cork



All listed in the Mirror.ie
https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/young-man-put-isolation-suspected-21440956

I’d consider the source before losing the head

VinLieger

odyssey06 wrote: »

I think they are an accurate count of the number dead who tested positive for coronavirus. I don't think they are honest in that we need to see the numbers of deaths for pneumonia and related respiratory conditions versus previous years.

I think the reported deaths are just the tip of the iceberg - I'm basing that on the reports coming out of China, the reaction of the Chinese and Hong Kong authorities, and the UK and other western governments.

China reported less then 200 deaths for Flu in each of the past 3 years their numbers for literally anything cannot be trusted in any way.

odyssey06

volchitsa wrote: »

If that is happening in any numbers, then death rates from pneumonia etc will have spiked. Are they going to refuse to make those available while publishing (official) death rates from this virus? Would be pretty dodgy looking, surely?

I don't think these deaths are showing up in official numbers.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relatives-wonder-whether-pneumonia-deaths-were-tied-to-coronavirus-11579915630

A 53-year-old fitness trainer died on Wednesday after checking into a hospital in Wuhan a little more than a week earlier, said his niece. His family had expected the death certificate to reflect the deadly coronavirus, because as his condition deteriorated, his doctors told his family he was suffering from an untreatable virus in his lungs. Instead, it recorded “severe pneumonia” as the cause of death, she said. The relatives of two other people who died in separate hospitals in Wuhan this week also described similar situations, saying the causes of death had been given as “viral pneumonia.”

Dubh Geannain

Stocks jump as China cuts tariffs on $75bn of US goods

Stock prices leapt higher in Asia overnight after China moved to cut tariffs on some US goods.

China’s Ministry of Finance said on Thursday it would reduce tariffs on about $75bn (£58bn) of goods imported from the US. A selection of imports facing levies of 10% will see the tax fall to 5%, while 5% levies on other imports will fall to 2.5%.

China said the tariff roll-back was “to promote the healthy and stable development of Sino-US economic and trade relations”. The changes will take effect from 14 February.

...

It's all about the markets.

Wuhan delivers the ball to Virus Corona on the wing who picks out a beautiful assist to target man Trump. Trump only has to tap into the empty net as Xi lies prone on the ground. Trump runs to the crowd celebrating as if he'd done all the leg work with that goal. The crowd are lapping it up. USA USA USA!

volchitsa

odyssey06 wrote: »

I don't think these deaths are showing up in official numbers.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relatives-wonder-whether-pneumonia-deaths-were-tied-to-coronavirus-11579915630

A 53-year-old fitness trainer died on Wednesday after checking into a hospital in Wuhan a little more than a week earlier, said his niece. His family had expected the death certificate to reflect the deadly coronavirus, because as his condition deteriorated, his doctors told his family he was suffering from an untreatable virus in his lungs. Instead, it recorded “severe pneumonia” as the cause of death, she said. The relatives of two other people who died in separate hospitals in Wuhan this week also described similar situations, saying the causes of death had been given as “viral pneumonia.”

Right, and my point is that these deaths are also recorded. Has the death rate in China for viral pneumonia or other illnesses risen significantly? (I realize we may not know this yet, but unless China usually keeps its death rates secret from the WHO, this will come out at some point, or their refusal to make the numerous available will show that they are hiding something important.

(Although just on the point of what the family expected to be told, I read during the swine flu scare in the UK that one major problem for hospitals was that other illnesse - in this case it was about a death from meningitis - tend to be missed because everyone thinks of the current epidemic, swine flu or Coronavirus or whatever, and treats accordingly. So let's not forget that we don't know that the man actually had Coronavirus. That itself is a dangerous assumption.)

   https://7news.com.au/travel/coronavirus/coronavirus-fears-as-oran-park-public-school-student-returns-to-class-early-after-china-trip-c-684548 

Self isolation hey!

odyssey06

volchitsa wrote: »

Right, and my point is that these deaths are also recorded. Has the death rate in China for viral pneumonia or other illnesses risen significantly? (I realize we may not know this yet, but unless China usually keeps its death rates secret from the WHO, this will come out at some point, or their refusal to make the numerous available will show that they are hiding something important.

Have you seen those figures? I think it's very telling we haven't seen them published anywhere yet. And I think that's the reason China sealed off Wuhan, and Hong Kong is closing its border. And that's why western governments evacuated its citizens and told them to leave.
It's not the published death toll accredited to the virus that scared them.
It's the total death toll.

At least, that's my interpretation of the numbers.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7971705/Chinese-students-flocking-cheap-holiday-resorts-Australias-coronavirus-lockdown.html

Hope that's not true - Chinese students flying to Thailand on cheap flights then continuing on to Australia to avoid the ban. Australia has over 100k Chinese international students. It's their second biggest 'export' after iron ore!!

wakka12

Several cases of new local h2h transmissions amongst people with no travel history to China in Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia

4068ac1elhodqr

wakka12 wrote: »

10 more people on the boat in Japan have been diagnosed, total 20 now. Will be a very interesting sample study of the effects, all infected roughly the same time

Japan is registered as haivng 45 cases, which is significant, with Tokyo being perhaps the world's most populated and very densely packed city.

They may be including the ship that is in Japenese waters in this total.

One of the news channels showed folks in balcony rooms being able to walk around the outside are of the boat, inside rooms however have no access to exit, daylight or fresh sea air.

The One Doctor

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Japan is registered as haivng 45 cases, which is significant, with Tokyo being perhaps the world's most populated and very densely packed city.

The Japanese will be perhaps even more reluctant to report true figures than China. They are not known for their transparency.

odyssey06

The One Doctor wrote: »

The Japanese will be perhaps even more reluctant to report true figures than China. They are not known for their transparency.

Official Japan maybe, but I don't think they will be able to keep a lid on doctors, journalists and citizens telling it like it is - or at least nowhere to the extent China has.

s7ryf3925pivug

Keep trading, keep traveling, and prepare for the virus to spread in your country. That's the apparent consensus among governments and NGOs. Rather than seek to prevent its spread, they accept that it will and look only at mitigating its effects when it does.

odyssey06

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Keep trading, keep traveling, and prepare for the virus to spread in your country. That's the apparent consensus among governments and NGOs. Rather than seek to prevent its spread, they accept that it will and look only at mitigating its effects when it does.

And there doesn't even seen to be any firm preparations on mitigating its effects when it does, at least here.

Graces7

rte has a sobering report just up.

megatron989

Graces7 wrote: »

rte has a sobering report just up.

For us in work could you give a brief overview?

bodhrandude

bodhrandude wrote: »

I hoping not Galway next the timing couldn't be as worse as a General Election and the Opening Party for the European City of Culture kicking off on Saturday, lots of folks in town. Has there been any reports in Scotland yet?

The weather may be your biggest worry now

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2058051890/1/#post112461450

odyssey06

Graces7 wrote: »

rte has a sobering report just up.

Quoting from that report:
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0206/1113470-coronavirus/
The city of 11 million is facing a "severe" lack of beds, said Hu Lishan, a senior official in Wuhan, noting that there were 8,182 patients admitted to 28 hospitals that have a total of 8,254 beds.

Ireland total number of hospital beds = 14,200.

If it broke out here to same extent that would mean we'd need 3000 bed capacity for the people requiring hospital treatment when we already have hundreds on trolleys.

gozunda

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Keep trading, keep traveling, and prepare for the virus to spread in your country. That's the apparent consensus among governments and NGOs. Rather than seek to prevent its spread, they accept that it will and look only at mitigating its effects when it does.

What I dont get is that China now has major areas under effective lockdown and is severely restricting travel between regions/ cities. And yet they are being critical of other countries curtailing travel to and from China. What gives?

pc7

gozunda wrote: »

What gives?

Money!

bodhrandude

Why does it take so long to diagnose these Irish cases, I thought there was quicker testing kits out there, I hate this not knowing if they are genuine cases or not.

Edit: Just found a news item that says there are faster testing kits that can diagnose Novell Coronavirus in 4 to 6 hours available in Ireland, so why the hell are they not using these. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-new-test-with-faster-results-available-in-ireland-1.4160156

creditcarder

wakka12 wrote: »

How does 1 person infecting (at least, so far) 20 others not seem spreadable??

I thought 10 as we are talking about the cruise guy?

bodhrandude

creditcarder wrote: »

I thought 10 as we are talking about the cruise guy?

Well twenty now.

Duke of Url

bodhrandude wrote: »

Why does it take so long to diagnose these Irish cases, I thought there was quicker testing kits out there, I hate this not knowing if they are genuine cases or not.

Edit: Just found a news item that says there are faster testing kits that can diagnose Novell Coronavirus in 4 to 6 hours available in Ireland, so why the hell are they not using these. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-new-test-with-faster-results-available-in-ireland-1.4160156

The HSE said in a statement that they will not be commenting on individual cases until a time where there is a confirmed case of the killer influenza in Ireland.

laurah591

Duke of Url wrote: »

The HSE said in a statement that they will not be commenting on individual cases until a time where there is a confirmed case of the killer influenza in Ireland.

lol.... did they really use that language

pc7

Duke of Url wrote: »

The HSE said in a statement that they will not be commenting on individual cases until a time where there is a confirmed case of the killer influenza in Ireland.

It'll likely be going round on a Whatsapp group message before HSE tell us anything.

car_radio19834

If it's in Ireland now we are ****ed.

Politicians going around shaking peoples hands, pencils in polling stations handled by all, papers handed around during counting, celebratory parties etc.

Duke of Url

laurah591 wrote: »

lol.... did they really use that language

I doubt they are the exact words lol