new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

odyssey06

sweetie wrote: »

t'would be the mail from china i'd be more concerned about

True but I assume if An Post can't get mail to China as airlines not operational there, I don't know how China Post could get mail to us...

sweetie

sweetie wrote: »

t'would be the mail from china i'd be more concerned about

It’s where all these masks everyone has ordered are coming from!

Charles Babbage

odyssey06 wrote: »

An Post suspends all mail to China...
https://www.thejournal.ie/an-post-china-wuhan-coronavirus-post-mail-4996327-Feb2020/

In a statement, An Post said that “all mail services have been suspended to China as a result of the Coronavirus with immediate effect”.
“This follows the decision by a number of international airlines to suspend their services,” the short statement added.

This is rather odd. Perhaps their usual routes are affected, but a single cargo plane could carry a large amount of mail. Not very good service.

timmyntc

Charles Babbage wrote: »

This is rather odd. Perhaps their usual routes are affected, but a single cargo plane could carry a large amount of mail. Not very good service.

Majority of all cargo is carried by passenger planes not dedicated cargo planes.

Marcos

Wibbs wrote: »

Yeah he's informative alright A, but jaysus he bloody drags it out. Again you could condense that vid into 5 maybe 10 minutes. Maybe it's because he's a lecturer/teacher in the subject? Hang back for the slower guys in the back of the class kinda thing?

So can anyone give us the Cliff Notes version?

circadian

I've come to the conclusion that most people on the planet will get this at some point unless a vaccine is released quickly. Thankfully the mortality rate isn't too bad and I'd expect herd immunity to take over at some point.

igCorcaigh

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

No update from Ben Kavanagh in two days...

I bet he's kept busy going through all the marriage proposals.

odyssey06

circadian wrote: »

I've come to the conclusion that most people on the planet will get this at some point unless a vaccine is released quickly. Thankfully the mortality rate isn't too bad and I'd expect herd immunity to take over at some point.

That thought occurred to me re: it going global but then is there a chance this is going to become an annual event like the flu season?

Will it mutate with different strains and we now have a second flu type illness to worry about?

wakka12

More cases emerging of infections in neighbouring countries with no connection to China, I dont see how containment could be successful in some place like Hong Kong with such density

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Singapore on Friday reported three more coronavirus cases that have not been linked to previous infections or travel to China, prompting it to raise its alert to orange, the same level it reached during the SARS outbreak in 2003.

Singapore now has 33 confirmed coronavirus cases.

The orange alert means the virus is severe and passes easily from person to person and was last raised during an outbreak of H1N1 influenza in 2009-2010.
https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f08tis/singapore_raises_coronavirus_alert_to_sars_level/

circadian

circadian wrote: »

I've come to the conclusion that most people on the planet will get this at some point unless a vaccine is released quickly. Thankfully the mortality rate isn't too bad and I'd expect herd immunity to take over at some point.

It is not uncommon for a person to become ill with a cold that is caused by a coronavirus and then catch it again about four months later.

This is because coronavirus antibodies do not last for a very long time.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/256521.php

Zhan Qingyuan, director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at the China-Japan Friendship Hospital, said even people who have recovered may not be immune to the virus.

"For those patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of a relapse," he said in a briefing on Friday. "The antibody will be generated; however, in certain individuals, the antibody cannot last that long."



https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-reinfection-2020-2%3famp

Charles Babbage

Singapore gone to Orange alert as cases are discovered of people who did not visit China.
Probably no better place to organise things than Singapore, you have to wonder if other neighbouring places like Indonesia might have problems which are not yet identified.

RebelButtMunch

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html

"For confirmed 2019-nCoV infections, reported illnesses have ranged from people with little to no symptoms to people being severely ill and dying. Symptoms can include:...."

One in the eye to the 'there's on such thing as a mild flu' brigade ! Albeit a pyrrhic victory.

charlietheminxx

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html

"For confirmed 2019-nCoV infections, reported illnesses have ranged from people with little to no symptoms to people being severely ill and dying. Symptoms can include:...."

One in the eye to the 'there's on such thing as a mild flu' brigade ! Albeit a pyrrhic victory.

...except it isn't a flu.

Charles Babbage

timmyntc wrote: »

Majority of all cargo is carried by passenger planes not dedicated cargo planes.

I know this, but if the passenger planes are not operating then a different approach is needed.

Stark

charlietheminxx wrote: »

...except it isn't a flu.

To be fair, studies show there are lots of cases of asymptomatic flu as well. (somewhere between 25% to 50% of cases judging from the ones I've read).

Dubh Geannain

Watching a couple of the Doctors videos. I'd say the chances of dying from it are lower than the 2% or will be lower than 2%. If the spread outside of China is slower.

The critical time in the cycle of the symptoms appears to be when the body cannot get enough oxygen, about 9 days into the illness. If the patient can get the required ventilation during that time, then they should pull through (assuming no underlying health conditions).

Now if a health system is inundated, like Wuhan was and there isn't enough oxygen for everyone that's where you have to hope for the best. So, if it's to spread then a slow sustained spread should see the mortality rate drop significantly.

creditcarder

I'm kind of trusting the german paper. I'm not sure if they really have a stake in this game at the moment :P

Confirmed another week off.. Fourth in a row including the lunar new year break. Gonna kill some people here financially.

pc7

Deleted User wrote: »

Confirmed another week off.. Fourth in a row including the lunar new year break. Gonna kill some people here financially.

Where are you again ABG? Can you work from home? or will you have to consider coming back to Ireland?

igCorcaigh

odyssey06 wrote: »

That thought occurred to me re: it going global but then is there a chance this is going to become an annual event like the flu season?

Will it mutate with different strains and we now have a second flu type illness to worry about?

It won't change with every season like flu does, once people are exposed, they will have immunity. It'll probably keep on going in bats.

Edit : seems I am wrong. See post below.

odyssey06

igCorcaigh wrote: »

It won't change with every season like flu does, once people are exposed, they will have immunity. It'll probably keep on going in bats.

What are you basing that on? Contradictory information here:
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/256521.php#what-are-coronaviruses

Coronavirus antibodies do not last for a very long time. Also, the antibodies for one strain of coronavirus may be useless against other strains.

RebelButtMunch

charlietheminxx wrote: »

...except it isn't a flu.

G0d damn! that's one in the eye for me! I stand corrected.

creditcarder

Deleted User wrote: »

Confirmed another week off.. Fourth in a row including the lunar new year break. Gonna kill some people here financially.

Yeah, I feel like online teaching is more reliable than the schools now. It kind of shows how they see the teachers, imo, as they are not covering almost two months of no pay (TET)

pc7 wrote: »

Where are you again ABG? Can you work from home? or will you have to consider coming back to Ireland?

You can live off 300 euro if you really want to in Vietnam to put it into perspective.

fritzelly

This guy...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iXozpbomAns&feature=youtu.be

...is now missing...

Wibbs

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Singapore gone to Orange alert as cases are discovered of people who did not visit China.
Probably no better place to organise things than Singapore, you have to wonder if other neighbouring places like Indonesia might have problems which are not yet identified.

The big worry would be India, though viruses don't do so well in hot sunny climates. UV light kills them stone dead in short order, heat does them no favours either, hence cold and flu season in the Northern hemisphere coincides with winter. Somewhere like Australia will suffer far less I suspect, especially now it's summer for them.

pc7

pc7 wrote: »

Where are you again ABG? Can you work from home? or will you have to consider coming back to Ireland?

In Hanoi. Nah can't work from home but have a business tipping along and have savings so not worried.

The craic's good. Meeting friends for beers a lot and enjoying the time off. No need to get out of the country.

circadian

Wibbs wrote: »

The big worry would be India, though viruses don't do so well in hot sunny climates. UV light kills them stone dead in short order, heat does them no favours either, hence cold and flu season in the Northern hemisphere coincides with winter. Somewhere like Australia will suffer far less I suspect, especially now it's summer for them.

It seems to be spreading readily in Thailand and Singapore, hardly cold climes. It may well be a very resilient virus considering that some experts are suggesting it could last on surfaces up to 28 days. India will certainly be a problem and the only state I've seen being proactive is Kerala. Out of the entire country that is the best developed and should handle this better than the rest. That being said, it's hard to see India not being overrun with this.

I can't see it not continuing to spread, controlling and slowing the spread is probably the best we can do for the time being.

The government needs to make it very clear that if you're showing symptoms to contact either HSE or your GP and to not show up at a clinic or hospital. I feel like once it arrives here it'll spread very quickly and there's not a whole lot in place to pre-empt and slow the spread.

igCorcaigh

odyssey06 wrote: »

What are you basing that on? Contradictory information here:
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/256521.php#what-are-coronaviruses

Coronavirus antibodies do not last for a very long time. Also, the antibodies for one strain of coronavirus may be useless against other strains.

Apologies, I had read it somewhere.

Wibbs

circadian wrote: »

The government needs to make it very clear that if you're showing symptoms to contact either HSE or your GP and to not show up at a clinic or hospital. I feel like once it arrives here it'll spread very quickly and there's not a whole lot in place to pre-empt and slow the spread.

Indeed and relying on the HSE is not something that instils much confidence. Frontline medical staff in this country are bloody good(I've quite a bit of experience dealing with them), but the infrastructure is a bloody farce at times. And that's before we get to the so called government of it all. Pissup in a brewery springs to mind. As bloody usual here whatever is done will be reactive not premptive. We've enough of a lead time at this stage, no direct flights from China(AFAIK) so we should be in a much better position than say the UK, but...

thecretinhop

400 million in quarantine now in China

wakka12

More madness:


China's fifth largest city! Now under quaratine
http://m.xinhuanet.com/gd/2020-02/07/c_1125542462.htm

Singapore supermarkets cleared out in panic buying
https://www.reddit.com/r/singapore/comments/f08aiq/supermarkets_are_absolutely_getting_smashed/

Not wearing a mask in public in Beijing now an arrestable offence
http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2020-02-07/1406283.html

Chinese travellers to hong kong who refuse quaratine may be imprisoned
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-07-20-intl-hnk/h_1a6a433b5a373183b7c507084735cf04

Jesus I really have to say I'm not worried about this when I read reports on how many people are actually killed or made very ill by this virus but then measures like this abroad make think its much worse, just out in Dublin city centre at the mo and it's really so crazy to think this is all going on on the other side of the world..its just so normal here

Hector Savage

But I was reading in other news that internationally at least it's under control ...

SeaBreezes

wakka12 wrote: »

More madness:


China's fifth largest city! Now under quaratine
http://m.xinhuanet.com/gd/2020-02/07/c_1125542462.htm

Singapore supermarkets cleared out in panic buying
https://www.reddit.com/r/singapore/comments/f08aiq/supermarkets_are_absolutely_getting_smashed/

Not wearing a mask in public in Beijing now an arrestable offence
http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2020-02-07/1406283.html

Chinese travellers to hong kong who refuse quaratine may be imprisoned
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-07-20-intl-hnk/h_1a6a433b5a373183b7c507084735cf04

Jesus I really have to say I'm not worried about this when I read reports on how many people are actually killed or made very ill by this virus but then measures like this abroad make think its much worse

That's what I don't get. The panic. For a disease with a 2% fatality?
China are pulling out all the stops.

wakka12

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-02-06/coronavirus-quarantine-starts-in-san-diego
Five Americans on Wuhan evacuation flight are hospitalised in San Diego with suspected coronavirus, all five developed symptoms during the flight and had no fever upon boarding

Yurt2

Could mean one of two things:

a. Infections are accelerating far beyond what we are being told.

or,

b. The backlash from the whistleblower doctor dying has spooked the party, who are now more afraid about the political cost of this than the human cost, and are taking every measure to be seen to contain the virus.

My gut says b.

wakka12

Yurt! wrote: »

Could mean one of two things:

a. Infections are accelerating far beyond what we are being told.

or,

b. The backlash from the whistleblower doctor dying has spooked the party, who are now more afraid about the political cost of this than the human cost, and are taking every measure to be seen to contain the virus.

My gut says b.

But the responses from other countries have also been dramatic and unprecedented. The crazy measures also began long before the whistleblower died

c.p.w.g.w

SeaBreezes wrote: »

That's what I don't get. The panic. For a disease with a 2% fatality?
China are pulling out all the stops.

This kinda of action from China only adds weight to the theories that they aren't telling the whole truth about the death toll in Wuhan

wakka12

SeaBreezes wrote: »

That's what I don't get. The panic. For a disease with a 2% fatality?
China are pulling out all the stops.

Well to be fair , 2% is pretty bad. Anything above 2% mortality is considered a majorly destructive pandemic by CDC/WHO. Especially with how spreadable it appears to be, swine flu is less infectious and is thought to have infected 2 billion peopple, 2 billion infected with 2% mortality rate is more than 1 in every 200 people worldwide dying, which is obviously extremely significant

ardinn

Johns uploading early!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnF-7qYmJGc

Oranage2

wakka12 wrote: »

More madness:


China's fifth largest city! Now under quaratine
http://m.xinhuanet.com/gd/2020-02/07/c_1125542462.htm

Singapore supermarkets cleared out in panic buying
https://www.reddit.com/r/singapore/comments/f08aiq/supermarkets_are_absolutely_getting_smashed/

Not wearing a mask in public in Beijing now an arrestable offence
http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2020-02-07/1406283.html

Chinese travellers to hong kong who refuse quaratine may be imprisoned
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-07-20-intl-hnk/h_1a6a433b5a373183b7c507084735cf04

Jesus I really have to say I'm not worried about this when I read reports on how many people are actually killed or made very ill by this virus but then measures like this abroad make think its much worse, just out in Dublin city centre at the mo and it's really so crazy to think this is all going on on the other side of the world..its just so normal here

Good link, first one is a bit wrong, the city is Guangzhou and it's not really a quarantine, it says restricted movement, like 1 can leave every other day for supplies.

odyssey06

Hector Savage wrote: »

But I was reading in other news that internationally at least it's under control ...

It's not under control. It just hasn't hit yet.

volchitsa

ardinn wrote: »

Johns uploading early!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnF-7qYmJGc

Thanks for that, who is that though, I've missed him up to now?

tara73

fritzelly wrote: »

This guy...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iXozpbomAns&feature=youtu.be

...is now missing...

how do you know? link? saw it yesterday, very touching and chilling. was thinking by myself if all the stories about the actions of the chinese government are true, he won't post much more...

fritzelly

tara73 wrote: »

how do you know? link? saw it yesterday, very touching and chilling. was thinking by myself if all the stories about the actions of the chinese government are true, he won't post much more...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-07/two-citizen-journalists-covering-virus-go-missing-in-china

RebelButtMunch

wakka12 wrote: »

Well to be fair , 2% is pretty bad. Anything above 2% mortality is considered a majorly destructive pandemic by CDC/WHO. Especially with how spreadable it appears to be, swine flu is less infectious and is thought to have infected 2 billion peopple, 2 billion infected with 2% mortality rate is more than 1 in every 200 people worldwide dying, which is obviously extremely significant

Isn't it only as high as 2% because they can't test people fast enough?
i.e if they had more test kits the ratio of deaths would be lower.

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1225802856478822400?s=19

Oranage2

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

Isn't it only as high as 2% because they can't test people fast enough?
i.e if they had more test kits the ratio of deaths would be lower.

I think the conspiracy theory is that deaths are also labeled as other things so the both rates should be higher

silverharp

One summary I was listening too was saying their are now essentially 3 epicentres so the daily totals will balloon going forward. Pretty much assume it cant be contained within China I'd imagine

ardinn

volchitsa wrote: »

Thanks for that, who is that though, I've missed him up to now?

Dr John Campbell - A lecturer on viral medicine I believe, gp, and all round top bloke.

I highly recommend watching all 11 of his videos on this outbreak. Superb information and very easy to follow and understand.

ardinn

silverharp wrote: »

One summary I was listening too was saying their are now essentially 3 epicentres so the daily totals will balloon going forward. Pretty much assume it cant be contained within China I'd imagine

Well, im pretty sure there are huge restrictions on travel to china now - so if places can get the current cases under control then hopefully, big if tho.

1 thing I have noticed is Australia, USA, and other countries confirmed cases have remained static for about three days now - oz and usa still at 12, was 12 on wednesday and possibly tuesday iirc. So that is fairly positive (ish)