new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

4068ac1elhodqr

ardinn wrote: »

1 thing I have noticed is Australia, USA, and other countries confirmed cases have remained static for about three days now - oz and usa still at 12, was 12 on wednesday and possibly tuesday iirc. So that is fairly positive (ish)

The Aussies (15 cases at least) have their own Island for putting new arrivals from China (and now perhaps other nearby countries), they won't get a glimpse of the Harbour Bridge, or the MCG until at least 14days of quarantine.

juanjo

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

The Aussies (15 cases at least) have their own Island for putting new arrivals from China (and now perhaps other nearby countries), they won't get a glimpse of the Harbour Bridge, or the MCG until at least 14days of quarantine.

The aussies are sending the people they don't want to an island? It kinda reminds me of something...

well better than this:
https://twitter.com/howroute/status/1225480460979056642

ardinn

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

The Aussies (15 cases at least) have their own Island for putting new arrivals from China (and now perhaps other nearby countries), they won't get a glimpse of the Harbour Bridge, or the MCG until at least 14days of quarantine.

Edit

Your right on oz - 15 - usa still 12 however

4068ac1elhodqr

juanjo wrote: »

The aussies are sending the people they don't want to an island? It kinda reminds me of something...

Sorry I don't ever bother to click on random Twatter links.

The aussies like everyone, are now using 14day quarantine for travellers from China, after that all is good and well.

They however are very strict with illegal migration in general (boat crossings etc), compared to the uk who had 90 (ninety) headed for Dover just yesterday, the most they've ever had in a single day, and received about 2,000 for last year across the Eng channel.

Marcos

SeaBreezes wrote: »

That's what I don't get. The panic. For a disease with a 2% fatality?
China are pulling out all the stops.

I saw a post* a few days ago which said

Don't look at what they're saying, look at what they're doing.

That'll tell you how serious the authorities think it is.

* I can't remember where, it may have been a different forum.

Marcos

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Sorry I don't ever bother to click on random Twatter links.

The aussies like everyone, are now using 14day quarantine for travellers from China, after that all is good and well.

They however are very strict with illegal migration in general (boat crossings etc), compared to the uk who had 90 (ninety) headed for Dover just yesterday, the most they've ever had in a single day, and received about 2,000 for last year across the Eng channel.

They're now starting to put them in an old mining camp in the middle of the outback.

ardinn

If you take the other estimates - 600,000 inf - 25,000 dead - It's a 4% Fatality rate.

There are probably thousands of people dead in their homes - especially in wuhan. The DR could actually be massive! But we just dont know!

joseywhales

On the lash in Bangalore tonight if anyone's about

ChikiChiki

If there was even the slightest chance that the regime could put you down like a rabid dog, I would not be budgeing and taking my chances holed up in the apartment. I suspect there could be quite a few of them cases.

timmyntc

ardinn wrote: »

If you take the other estimates - 600,000 inf - 25,000 dead - It's a 4% Fatality rate.

There are probably thousands of people dead in their homes - especially in wuhan. The DR could actually be massive! But we just dont know!

Not that I believe any of the numbers coming out of China
but even with a mortality rate of 2% this is still a big deal. It has an R0 of >2, no vaccines yet, and as the virus mutates quite quickly you don't develop an immunity after recovering.

If this spreads worldwide we will keep having serious breakouts of this all over the world for years to come - if we don't contain it now while the numbers are manageable (outside of China anyways), it'll soon be too widespread to contain.

Like think of the common cold - its global, its always spreading, you always catch it again and again. Now imagine each time you caught it there was a 2% chance of death.

ardinn

timmyntc wrote: »

Not that I believe any of the numbers coming out of China
but even with a mortality rate of 2% this is still a big deal. It has an R0 of >2, no vaccines yet, and as the virus mutates quite quickly you don't develop an immunity after recovering.

If this spreads worldwide we will keep having serious breakouts of this all over the world for years to come - if we don't contain it now while the numbers are manageable (outside of China anyways), it'll soon be too widespread to contain.

Like think of the common cold - its global, its always spreading, you always catch it again and again. Now imagine each time you caught it there was a 2% chance of death.

The Ro is 2.8 - So 3, doubling time 6 days.

Dr John discussed the cold theory yesterday - Your body wont hold the anti bodies for more than 4 months if you do recover the 1st time.

ceadaoin.

ardinn wrote: »

If you take the other estimates - 600,000 inf - 25,000 dead - It's a 4% Fatality rate.

There are probably thousands of people dead in their homes - especially in wuhan. The DR could actually be massive! But we just dont know!

And there are thousands more at home with mild symptoms, not dying. I think the death rate will turn out to be much lower than 4% once we get an idea of the true number of infections. If we ever do.

Pretty sure this will turn into another seasonal illness that does the rounds every year.

SeaBreezes

ardinn wrote: »

If you take the other estimates - 600,000 inf - 25,000 dead - It's a 4% Fatality rate.

There are probably thousands of people dead in their homes - especially in wuhan. The DR could actually be massive! But we just dont know!

Plus I imagine severe cases will be fatal if no hospital space..

ardinn

ceadaoin. wrote: »

And there are thousands more at home with mild symptoms, not dying. I think the death rate will turn out to be much lower than 4% once we get an idea of the true number of infections. If we ever do.

Pretty sure this will turn into another seasonal illness that does the rounds every year.

I absolutely hope you are right

circadian

I see people mentioning mutations, has this actually been verified?

Rvsmmnps

Hong Kong airlines axe 400 jobs.

Yurt2

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

Hong Kong airlines axe 400 jobs.

There's some outrageously cheap deals on quality hotels in Hong Kong at the moment. A lot of places will have to fold if this persists.

babybuilder

What are the chances of this precipitating a world wide recession/depression? Also, Is the fact that the virus has been shown to survive 28 days on metal surfaces got anything to do with An Post's decision to cancel all mail from China? I'm aware of the obvious reason being airlines stopping flights but just wondering.

Call Me Jimmy

Yurt! wrote: »

There's some outrageously cheap deals on quality hotels in Hong Kong at the moment. A lot of places will have to fold if this persists.

Yup, 1/6th of the world has shut down with many predictable near-catastrophic effects and yet it seems there are only small pockets of conversation about it.

cloudatlas

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/ive-been-walking-stairs-for-exercise-life-under-coronavirus-quarantine

A couple of things annoyed me about the quarantine in the uk at the Wirral. The guy who wrote this sounds like a bit of an idiot but the people ordering take away and especially the guy hoarding the booze sound like ungrateful dicks taking the piss out of the kindness shown them.

Also they should be confined to their rooms if someone was sick they would have transferred it to handles and counters, tables by now. Makes little sense.

Call Me Jimmy

babybuilder wrote: »

What are the chances of this precipitating a world wide recession/depression? Also, Is the fact that the virus has been shown to survive 28 days on metal surfaces got anything to do with An Post's decision to cancel all mail from China? I'm aware of the obvious reason being airlines stopping flights but just wondering.

To be honest I've been saying the reset has to come soon before this happened, I was even thinking 2020. But it feels like there's infinite ****ery going on with central banks, they are the gods forever protecting us from ever experiencing pain again...

If this doesn't do it, nothing will.

bodhrandude

Just wondering if there has been any unconfirmed reports at the UHG in Galway as the town is going to be packed for tomorrow for the opening 2020 celebrations, thinking of staying away from it and staying indoors.

Yurt2

babybuilder wrote: »

What are the chances of this precipitating a world wide recession/depression? Also, Is the fact that the virus has been shown to survive 28 days on metal surfaces got anything to do with An Post's decision to cancel all mail from China? I'm aware of the obvious reason being airlines stopping flights but just wondering.

I think Xi is on borrowed time as leader of China. There were already strong rumours of the powerful Jiang Zemin faction getting into place to move against him. Xi made a lot of enemies in the group that enjoyed Jiang's patronage before and after he came to power.

Pretty open dissent on Chinese social media the last few days.

josip

Yurt! wrote: »

Pretty open dissent on Chinese social media the last few days.

That's just swapping one dictator for another.
Way too acquiescent for their own good (literally this time).

Loafing Oaf

bodhrandude wrote: »

Just wondering if there has been any unconfirmed reports at the UHG in Galway as the town is going to be packed for tomorrow for the opening 2020 celebrations, thinking of staying away from it and staying indoors.

Just keep your distance from anyone vaguely East Asian looking and you'll be fine!:P

Oranage2

cloudatlas wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/ive-been-walking-stairs-for-exercise-life-under-coronavirus-quarantine

A couple of things annoyed me about the quarantine in the uk at the Wirral. The guy who wrote this sounds like a bit of an idiot but the people ordering take away and especially the guy hoarding the booze sound like ungrateful dicks taking the piss out of the kindness shown them.

Also they should be confined to their rooms if someone was sick they would have transferred it to handles and counters, tables by now. Makes little sense.

Wouldn't surprise me too much since half the teachers in China are alcoholics.

Fr_Dougal

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdG8z8Nb5rk

Well...thank god for that, just a normal girl from China casually talking about her daily experience..everything is going to be okay... 🤥

VinLieger

babybuilder wrote: »

What are the chances of this precipitating a world wide recession/depression? Also, Is the fact that the virus has been shown to survive 28 days on metal surfaces got anything to do with An Post's decision to cancel all mail from China? I'm aware of the obvious reason being airlines stopping flights but just wondering.

Its very likely going to trigger some kind of recession but nobody knows how bad yet.

An post have only canceled post to china as theres no commercial planes for them to send it on.

TheValeyard

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdG8z8Nb5rk

Well...thank god for that, just a normal girl from China casually talking about her daily experience..everything is going to be okay... 🀥

This video is approved and sponsored by the Administration. All hail Xi.

Yurt2

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdG8z8Nb5rk

Well...thank god for that, just a normal girl from China casually talking about her daily experience..everything is going to be okay... 🤥

In case the slightly Orwellian 'unity is strength' line and her robotic rehearsed demenour didn't give it away, China Plus is part of China Radio International: a soft-power propaganda arm of the CCP.


I was half expecting her to say 'drink more warm water, good for healthy' (anyone who has spent any degree of time in China will recognise this).

fritzelly

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdG8z8Nb5rk

Well...thank god for that, just a normal girl from China casually talking about her daily experience..everything is going to be okay... 🤥

Looks legit

https://www.imdb.com/name/nm3137286/

Only snapchats of significance to report was a few 15 hrs ago saying a supermarket was open.

Doesn’t say how long it was open for and there was no mad crowd of people rushing to get in.

Carol25

Just watching RTE Six One news and a number of concerning points have been raised:
1. Why are we relying on people to ‘self declare’ re the virus, and not doing any screening at airports at all...seems extremely reckless.
2. How on earth do you track everyone that had been in contact with a person who potentially carried the virus from Asia to Ireland.
3. Has Ireland identified any areas/places to open in the event of an outbreak in an specific area.
4. Should there be a public awareness campaign made available to schools, companies, etc, and precautionary measures taken to try and limit any potential spread.
5. When a person suspects they might have the virus, what is the procedure. What number do you ring, what is the plan?! At least in England they’ve been given a number to dial...

Loafing Oaf

Carol25 wrote: »

3. Has Ireland identified any areas/places to open in the event of an outbreak in an specific area.
4. Should there be a public awareness campaign made available to schools, companies, etc, and precautionary measures taken to try and limit any potential spread.
5. When a person suspects they might have the virus, what is the procedure. What number do you ring, what is the plan?! At least in England they’ve been given a number to dial...

Our health minister appears to have himself been quarantined for the duration of the general election campaign:P so the country may be a bit rudderless with regard to these matters...

babybuilder

You don't have to go to China for censorship. Was the potential virus threat ever mentioned during the TV debates?

hmmm

Carol25 wrote: »

2. How on earth do you track everyone that had been in contact with a person who potentially carried the virus from Asia to Ireland.

You don't have to track everyone, just enough to reduce the spread. If someone has been in contact with 50 people, it's not going to spread to 50 people - maybe 2 or 3 might have been infected. If you can track down 40 of those people and ask them to keep an eye on any symptoms, you stand a good chance of reducing future spread.

hmmm

wakka12 wrote: »

40 more cases confirmed on the Japanese boat. 61 in total now. Well if the spreadability of the virus was ever in doubt that certainly puts it to bed
Given that it seems remarkable that there has been so few localised outbreaks of note outside of China, especially with the lax screening of chinese touristsand immigrants into many countries even now, and several verified reports of confirmed infected invididuals holidaying throughout countries such as Mexico, England. I was reading an article yesterday about a Chinese man ho was infected and was hoolidaying in Mexico city, none of the dozens of people he was in contact with contracted it.

There's must be something about the environment of a cruise ship which is causing the spread to be more severe, and while they might not like being guinea pigs it's giving researchers a great opportunity.

We're not seeing much in the way of spreads in airports or railways etc. Even on airplanes, we're not seeing cases caused by people sitting directly beside infected people.

VinLieger

babybuilder wrote: »

You don't have to go to China for censorship. Was the potential virus threat ever mentioned during the TV debates?

No because it would help none of them to be talking about it during campaigning.

joseywhales

Hmmm, I wonder could it have anything to do with the lack of fresh air supply.

saabsaab

Carol25 wrote: »

Just watching RTE Six One news and a number of concerning points have been raised:
1. Why are we relying on people to ‘self declare’ re the virus, and not doing any screening at airports at all...seems extremely reckless.
2. How on earth do you track everyone that had been in contact with a person who potentially carried the virus from Asia to Ireland.
3. Has Ireland identified any areas/places to open in the event of an outbreak in an specific area.
4. Should there be a public awareness campaign made available to schools, companies, etc, and precautionary measures taken to try and limit any potential spread.
5. When a person suspects they might have the virus, what is the procedure. What number do you ring, what is the plan?! At least in England they’ve been given a number to dial...

All good points 'self declare' is daft policy. The number they indicate is the local HSE contact on their website. We should have closed potential flights days ago.

creditcarder

cloudatlas wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/ive-been-walking-stairs-for-exercise-life-under-coronavirus-quarantine

A couple of things annoyed me about the quarantine in the uk at the Wirral. The guy who wrote this sounds like a bit of an idiot but the people ordering take away and especially the guy hoarding the booze sound like ungrateful dicks taking the piss out of the kindness shown them.

Also they should be confined to their rooms if someone was sick they would have transferred it to handles and counters, tables by now. Makes little sense.

Does anybody else find it funny that the author took the credit? :P

Edit: I'm reading it and I have to say...typical English teachers

hmmm

Big new study of 138 patients, showing transmission within hospitals, R0 of 2.2, about 5 days on average for symptoms to show,
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

The Chinese are taking a different strategy now of simply quarantining patients with minor symptoms together until they are no longer infected, as sending them home is just spreading the virus to close contacts.

fritzelly

creditcarder wrote: »

Does anybody else find it funny that the author took the credit? :P

Huh?

babybuilder

hmmm wrote: »

Big new study of 138 patients, showing transmission within hospitals, R0 of 2.2, about 5 days on average for symptoms to show,
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

The Chinese are taking a different strategy now of simply quarantining patients with minor symptoms together until they are no longer infected, as sending them home is just spreading the virus to close contacts.

Can't find your assertion from the report that they are just sending them home to infect close contacts. I would be grateful if you could quote the relevant text. Thanks

hmmm

babybuilder wrote: »

Can't find your assertion from the report that they are just sending them home to infect close contacts. I would be grateful if you could quote the relevant text. Thanks

That was my comment, it's not in the text.

sondagefaux

This week's email newsletter from my wholesaler regarding his Chinese wife, who's back home in China, in her parents' village, for Chinese New Year.

I just spoke to her and all is OK, or as OK as it can be when you are in a locked down village. Normally for Chinese New Year I am also in that village, (it was only because of starting our new Spain company that I didn't go). I know the village and its people very well. The residents are mostly old folks, at CNY the younger relatives come home and I think about 200 people will be there. It's literally a one road town, houses each side of the road, one or two behind and surrounded by rice fields as far as you can see. There are no restaurants, only two shops, one a small supermarket and agricultural supplies store that belongs to Coco's brother and his wife...

The road in and out has been blocked with access only for police and health officials. Every few hours a police car drives through with a loud speaker telling residents to stay in-doors at all time. Only one designated person is allowed out to shop every two days and they must wear a mask. A government health official stands guard at the shop to police this policy...there are no new deliveries coming along the road so all the meat ran out a week ago, eggs are gone, now they only have veg and rice. They have been told to expect the lock down for at least another week, but could be end of February. The good news is that no-one in the village has any symptoms, everyone is healthy, but rumours abound that cases have been found in just the next village. The nearest city about 30 minutes away has a lot of cases, it's a big worry.

Wibbs

Yurt! wrote: »

In case the slightly Orwellian 'unity is strength' line and her robotic rehearsed demenour didn't give it away, China Plus is part of China Radio International: a soft-power propaganda arm of the CCP.


I was half expecting her to say 'drink more warm water, good for healthy' (anyone who has spent any degree of time in China will recognise this).

Jaysus, they're so out of touch and old fashioned where it comes to propaganda. The West does it so much better(which is worse in some ways). Then again they don't need to be up to date for many of their population.

creditcarder

fritzelly wrote: »

Huh?

Dude's diary under her name. Imo, they should have published it under his name.



But, irregardless, I do love the odd behaviour of English teachers in Asia. They are unique and I have a strange fondness for htem.

creditcarder

sondagefaux wrote: »

This week's email newsletter from my wholesaler regarding his Chinese wife, who's back home in China, in her parents' village, for Chinese New Year.

Honestly, conspiracy theory aside, this honestly reads like keeping social order/control rather than fear of virus.

Edit: I think the new city also had protest becuase of a furnace?

Carol25

hmmm wrote: »

You don't have to track everyone, just enough to reduce the spread. If someone has been in contact with 50 people, it's not going to spread to 50 people - maybe 2 or 3 might have been infected. If you can track down 40 of those people and ask them to keep an eye on any symptoms, you stand a good chance of reducing future spread.

Have you a source for this information? I've read articles today saying the British are looking for people from the 5 star Singapore Hotel that spent as little as 15 minutes with the infected. I'm also looking at the behaviour of China in Wuhan and other areas...their behaviour does not give me confidence that this virus would only spread to 2 or 3 out of 50 the infected are in contact with. I really hope I'm wrong in this case.