new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

tuxy

saabsaab wrote: »

The count?

Ballot papers.

MadYaker

What do people expect the HSE to say exactly?

s7ryf3925pivug

saabsaab wrote: »

I hope you are right but another site says 65M dead before this ends!

Both ideas are compatible.
It is slowing down, but if you project its current rate of spread then it would infect everyone on the planet within six months. (Simple linear projection ignoring any mitigating factors and is therefore not to be considered accurate; just illustrative of how rampant it is right now.)

odyssey06

tom1ie wrote: »

All due respect but that’s just your opinion.
We need concrete, globally agreed stats on how infectious this disease is, the mortality rate and what demographics are most at risk.
Otherwise we are just guessing.
Tbh I’m erring on the side of caution and getting extra supplies in so I don’t have to que up with the public if panic buying does set in like it has in Singapore.
Might be something to consider.

I think you should err on the side of caution, especially if you or close family are in the groups so far identified as being most at risk.

This is boards.ie this is where you come to for best guesses when there isn't globally agreed information on something... we're all just reading between the lines here based on the dubious though large amounts of data from China & the small amount of reliable data from other locations.

s7ryf3925pivug

tuxy wrote: »

Ballot papers.

ah **** it. I had just been thinking of a crowded indoor environment but the papers themselves would be a vector for infection.

cnocbui

MadYaker wrote: »

Maybe in pitch darkness and perfect conditions a virus could maybe survive for that long (in that german mans lab no doubt). UV radiation (sunlight) breaks down the viruses genetic material and kills them pretty quick. Most transmissions are through direct physical contant or someone coughing / sneezing on you and you breath that in etc. You'd be unlucky to get it off a door handle or whatever but it is possible.

You must be in Australia, mate; where I am, the UV index is 0, there's no sunlight to speak of and its grey, cold and damp.

saabsaab

tuxy wrote: »

Ballot papers.

Of course! I'm a bit out of touch..

MadYaker

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Both ideas are compatible.
It is slowing down, but if you project its current rate of spread then it would infect everyone on the planet within six months. (Simple linear projection ignoring any mitigating factors and is therefore not to be considered accurate; just illustrative of how rampant it is right now.)

The virus won't survive or infect in significant numbers in most countries for 6 months. Rising temps going into summer are not good for viruses. These outbreaks always happen in winter as the colder conditions are more favourable then it peeters out as summer approaches.

odyssey06

Flu kills approximately 500,000 people globally a year.

Flu vaccines are on average 45% effective - often the strain in the vaccine is not the strain that hits.
People who have recovered from B strains of flu have some immunity against other B strains so if the vaccine misses a mutated A strain it means a more severe flu season for older people.
We have no vaccine against coronavirus.

Even if this is "just as bad as the flu", and I think it looks like it's more severe in terms of secondary pneumonia, think about what that means.
Our hospital system is overloaded annually during flu season.
Imagine we have to do deal with flu and an annual coronavirus season for which we have no vaccines.
Yikes.

MadYaker

cnocbui wrote: »

You must be in Australia, mate; where I am, the UV index is 0, there's no sunlight to speak of and its grey, cold and damp.

Well it is currently night so thats understandable I guess. Assuming you're in Ireland.

tuxy

saabsaab wrote: »

The count?

Also maybe this guy would be handy for counting how many bats started this

cnocbui

MadYaker wrote: »

What do people expect the HSE to say exactly?

We currently have x cases of concern at the moment, they are all in isolation units receiving appropriate medical care. We are currently awaiting test results, which we should have in y days/hours and we let you know the results of these as soon as we have them.

tuxy

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

ah **** it. I had just been thinking of a crowded indoor environment but the papers themselves would be a vector for infection.

Yes and did everyone wash their hands after using the pencil in the polling station today?

lolanacho

MadYaker wrote: »

That would fit the definition of a limited spread. 5 people out of how ever many thousands were crammed into that ski resort isn't very many.

The guy was staying in a chalet that was divided into two apartments, he was sharing his with the 5 people that gave positive, one a 9 year old child.
The other six people from the other apartment are also in hospital under observation, so the rate is not as low as you might think.
The government is trying to trace any other person that might have been in close contact with him but have already left the ski resort.

The British family live in that resort, the children attend school in a nearby location, all the parents have been informed the schools will be closed at least for a week until they test all the kids.

odyssey06

This article calls out one of the "Known Unknowns" about the virus, it's basic reproduction number (R0), or how many people will catch a bug from a single infected person.

https://www.livescience.com/how-far-will-coronavirus-spread.html

Also known as the "basic reproduction number," R0 predicts the number of people who can catch a given bug from a single infected person. For example, diseases such as polio, smallpox and rubella have R0 values in the 5 to 7 range; such values mean that, on average, one sick person would be likely to infect five to seven people who were not resistant to the virus, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The measles virus ranks among the most highly transmissible diseases on the planet, with an estimated R0 value of 12 to 18.

As Chinese health officials confirmed more and more cases of 2019-nCoV, scientists around the world rushed to estimate R0 for the new virus. Last week, several reports placed the figure between 2 and 3, while the World Health Organization reported that the virus's R0 falls slightly lower, at between 1.4 and 2.5. Other estimates have surpassed this range, hovering above 3.5. But what do all these numbers really mean?

For context, know that diseases with an R0 below 1 typically disappear from a population before becoming widespread, as infected people recover faster than the bug can be transmitted to new hosts.

cnocbui

MadYaker wrote: »

Well it is currently night so thats understandable I guess. Assuming you're in Ireland.

I am. It's been grey cold and damp for most of the daylight hours. Ireland doesn't get noticeable UV at this time of year, at least not by my standards.

igCorcaigh

saabsaab wrote: »

I guess they mean if say you were in the same room as an infected person for a minute you may have only received a small number of viruses but say you were in close contact for a few hours with an infected person you would have received a very large number of viruses and your system would find it hard to deal with it.

It also has to do with viral load.
A person who has a lot of virus can be a superspreader. The quantity of virus one is exposed to impacts on the outcome.

At least that's my understanding, open to correction. I'm not an expert.

MadYaker

cnocbui wrote: »

We currently have x cases of concern at the moment, they are all in isolation units receiving appropriate medical care. We are currently awaiting test results, which we should have in y days/hours and we let you know the results of these as soon as we have them.

Thats fair enough I suppose, though I don't see how it would make people feel better. There may be patient confidentiality issues with discussing specific cases though I might be wrong there I'm not a doctor. Technically since the syptoms are the same as any other flu virus or the common cold until the tests come back we probably have thousands of cases here that could be considered "cases of concern". Unless they are people just got back from China.

ardinn

MadYaker wrote: »

In China people who think they have the virus are are panicking, presenting at hospital and overloading the infrastructure. Most of these people have some other sickness like a common cold or some other virus as the symptoms are similar.

That was the case - now people who have symptoms are being dragged (literally) out of their homes and put into what can only be called concentration camps with no medical facilities.

Wuhan was told to "round up" anyone with symptoms, people are now terrified of the "healthcare" there and are accepting they are better off dying at home.

igCorcaigh

odyssey06 wrote: »

Flu kills approximately 500,000 people globally a year.

Flu vaccines are on average 45% effective - often the strain in the vaccine is not the strain that hits.
People who have recovered from B strains of flu have some immunity against other B strains so if the vaccine misses a mutated A strain it means a more severe flu season for older people.
We have no vaccine against coronavirus.

Even if this is "just as bad as the flu", and I think it looks like it's more severe in terms of secondary pneumonia, think about what that means.
Our hospital system is overloaded annually during flu season.
Imagine we have to do deal with flu and an annual coronavirus season for which we have no vaccines.
Yikes.

18% of cases are severe... That means hospital. This is going to clog up resources big time.

saabsaab

MadYaker wrote: »

What do people expect the HSE to say exactly?

Not so much what they say but a public announcement on TV in mandarin and English telling people that have returned recently form China to call a number and not show up in hospitals or GPs.

Not solely HSE but
Also get a list for those on flights where there are potential cases(18 Now) from transport agencies and follow up on those potentially affected.

The best approach would be to quarantine returnees or ban flights to begin with.

s7ryf3925pivug

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

ah **** it. I had just been thinking of a crowded indoor environment but the papers themselves would be a vector for infection.

Apparently she is doing the tallies which means she stands behind the people counting the actual papers and makes a mark every five votes. (Riveting way to spend her day apparently.) The actual counting is done by council employees.

MadYaker

lolanacho wrote: »

The guy was staying in a chalet that was divided into two apartments, he was sharing his with the 5 people that gave positive, one a 9 year old child.
The other six people from the other apartment are also in hospital under observation, so the rate is not as low as you might think.
The government is trying to trace any other person that might have been in close contact with him but have already left the ski resort.

The British family live in that resort, the children attend school in a nearby location, all the parents have been informed the schools will be closed at least for a week until they test all the kids.

But that is a low transmission rate, he infected the people he lived with and nobody else. He was on a skiing holiday, out on the slopes and in bars, restraunts shops etc for days while carrying the virus yet he only infected the people he was living with. Nice to see the French taking proper precautions though.

auspicious

lolanacho wrote: »

The guy was staying in a chalet that was divided into two apartments, he was sharing his with the 5 people that gave positive, one a 9 year old child.
The other six people from the other apartment are also in hospital under observation, so the rate is not as low as you might think.
The government is trying to trace any other person that might have been in close contact with him but have already left the ski resort.

The British family live in that resort, the children attend school in a nearby location, all the parents have been informed the schools will be closed at least for a week until they test all the kids.

If it properly breaches our shores I hope the appropriate agencies learn from these examples and apply direct and snappy protocols.

cnocbui

MadYaker wrote: »

The virus won't survive or infect in significant numbers in most countries for 6 months. Rising temps going into summer are not good for viruses. These outbreaks always happen in winter as the colder conditions are more favourable then it peeters out as summer approaches.

I wasn't going to post this, as the SARS figures timeleine is overly compressed due to Chinese secrecy, but saying it's going to take 6 months, given what is happening, is pretty weird.

s7ryf3925pivug

tuxy wrote: »

Yes and did everyone wash their hands after using the pencil in the polling station today?

:pac:

odyssey06

igCorcaigh wrote: »

It also has to do with viral load.
A person who has a lot of virus can be a superspreader. The quantity of virus one is exposed to impacts on the outcome.
At least that's my understanding, open to correction. I'm not an expert.

Yep, to further your point:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-singapore-doing-it-right-with-measures-says-expert-who-led-whos-fight

How severe the illness in a person is depends both on the person's own immune system, as well as how large the viral load is when the person is infected. If someone who is very sick sneezes or coughs in the person's face, the viral load could be high.
(according to Professor David Heymann, who headed the WHO response to SARS)

odyssey06

MadYaker wrote: »

But that is a low transmission rate, he infected the people he lived with and nobody else. He was on a skiing holiday, out on the slopes and in bars, restraunts shops etc for days while carrying the virus yet he only infected the people he was living with. Nice to see the French taking proper precautions though.

If it's as infectious as the flu it would mean 10% of the population will get it. Flu has a transmission rate of 1.3 i.e. each infected person infects a further 1.3 people. So what seems like a low transmision rate, as long as it is greater than 1 can ultimatlely lead to large number of infections.
At the moment we don't know if coronavirus transmisson rate is 1.3, 2.5 or 3.5 but it seems to be greater than 1.

igCorcaigh

odyssey06 wrote: »

Yep, to further your point:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-singapore-doing-it-right-with-measures-says-expert-who-led-whos-fight

How severe the illness in a person is depends both on the person's own immune system, as well as how large the viral load is when the person is infected. If someone who is very sick sneezes or coughs in the person's face, the viral load could be high.
(according to Professor David Heymann, who headed the WHO response to SARS)

Thanks for that.

I took a module in epidemiology in college many years ago, but not working in that area now.

It's a very interesting area of study, so trying to refresh my knowledge now. Cheers.

MadYaker

Yeah that's why doctors and nurses are most at risk, they get riddled with it treating victims many have already died in China.

tuxy

ardinn wrote: »

That was the case - now people who have symptoms are being dragged (literally) out of their homes and put into what can only be called concentration camps with no medical facilities.

Wuhan was told to "round up" anyone with symptoms, people are now terrified of the "healthcare" there and are accepting they are better off dying at home.

What if the people in those video know they probably have it and have not self isolated and are responsible for infecting more and would continue to do so.
I know that the CPC are capable of some horrific human rights violations but we do not know the back story of those videos.

ardinn

If I post this in an economic forum they wont understand the virus, So ill post it here and hope someone with a international business interest will be watching, or anyone with more knowledge than I on the matter really (not a huge ask to be fair)

If this does hit home, and its fairly bad. What will happen to people who cant go to work, whose businesses cant function, whos mortgages need to be paid?

Would the government freeze the collection of loans until such a time the pandemic is over.

What happens after a few weeks when people start to run out of money for food and heating oil and gas, and most of the services we rely on internationally dry up?

This is all very end of days but it would be interesting to hear peoples views.

I read somewhere years ago, Ireland have appaling levels of most things - like after 4 days we start to run out of things, fuel etc

s7ryf3925pivug

odyssey06 wrote: »

Yep, to further your point:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-singapore-doing-it-right-with-measures-says-expert-who-led-whos-fight

How severe the illness in a person is depends both on the person's own immune system, as well as how large the viral load is when the person is infected. If someone who is very sick sneezes or coughs in the person's face, the viral load could be high.
(according to Professor David Heymann, who headed the WHO response to SARS)

So can we get really small amounts of the virus to get mild forms of the illness and then have immunity for a few months? (Logistically challenging even if it might be conceptually viable.)

Actually that's what a live vaccine is. Don't suppose any immunologists are browsing who want to evaluate this concept?

cnocbui

MadYaker wrote: »

But that is a low transmission rate, he infected the people he lived with and nobody else. He was on a skiing holiday, out on the slopes and in bars, restraunts shops etc for days while carrying the virus yet he only infected the people he was living with. Nice to see the French taking proper precautions though.

You think the transmission rate is low? The figures out of China are bogus and as massaged and manipulated as their GDP figures.

Coronavirus cases on Diamond Princess cruise ship rise to 63, including 9 from US
Julia Thompson and Morgan Hines USA TODAY
Published 2:29 PM EST Feb 8, 2020

Two more passengers, including another American, have fallen ill on the Diamond Princess cruise ship that is quarantined off the coast of Japan, bringing the ship's total to 63 passengers who have been diagnosed with coronavirus.

The cruise ship is one of of several affected by the deadly coronavirus outbreak, which has prompted cruise lines to issue quarantines and perform testings and screenings. Meanwhile, some ports are denying cruise ships entry for fear of the virus spreading.

https://eu.jsonline.com/story/travel/news/2020/02/08/coronavirus-cruise-ships-diamond-princess-cases-rise-japan-coast/4693112002/

If a single carrier lead to 63 cases, I wouldn't call that a low infection rate, personally. A disease where a carrier is infectious for days before exhibiting symptoms, is a cause for concern.

drunkmonkey

There flat out burning

https://twitter.com/htommy998/status/1226210668400930816?s=20

s7ryf3925pivug

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There flat out burning

https://twitter.com/htommy998/status/1226210668400930816?s=20

The situation there is so ****ing horrific. Wartime conditions is right.

saabsaab

ardinn wrote: »

If I post this in an economic forum they wont understand the virus, So ill post it here and hope someone with a international business interest will be watching, or anyone with more knowledge than I on the matter really (not a huge ask to be fair)

If this does hit home, and its fairly bad. What will happen to people who cant go to work, whose businesses cant function, whos mortgages need to be paid?

Would the government freeze the collection of loans until such a time the pandemic is over.

What happens after a few weeks when people start to run out of money for food and heating oil and gas, and most of the services we rely on internationally dry up?

This is all very end of days but it would be interesting to hear peoples views.

I read somewhere years ago, Ireland have appaling levels of most things - like after 4 days we start to run out of things, fuel etc

All good questions and would apply to a war or disaster too. The answers would depend on the government at the time, hopefully they would do the best for the people overall.

s7ryf3925pivug

saabsaab wrote: »

All good questions and would apply to a war or disaster too. The answers would depend on the government at the time, hopefully they would do the best for the people overall.

So in other words, FFG voters you might reap what you have sown.

creditcarder

creditcarder wrote: »

Take that with a grain of salt :P

endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62-71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute. Other biocidal agents such as 0.05-0.2% benzalkonium chloride or 0.02% chlorhexidine digluconate are less effective

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670120300463


At 4°C, infectious virus persisted for as long as 28 days, and the lowest level of inactivation occurred at 20% RH. Inactivation was more rapid at 20°C than at 4°C at all humidity levels; the viruses persisted for 5 to 28 days, and the slowest inactivation occurred at low RH. Both viruses were inactivated more rapidly at 40°C than at 20°C. The relationship between inactivation and RH was not monotonic, and there was greater survival or a greater protective effect at low RH (20%) and high RH (80%) than at moderate RH (50%).
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

An ancient virus has "come back to life" after lying dormant for at least 30,000 years, scientists say.

It was found frozen in a deep layer of the Siberian permafrost, but after it thawed it became infectious once again.

The French scientists say the contagion poses no danger to humans or animals, but other viruses could be unleashed as the ground becomes exposed.

The study is published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26387276

https://www.pnas.org/content/111/11/4274


Use hand sanitizer after you touch something that maybe 100 other people touched today etc, lift buttons, door handles, shared work kettles etc etc etc

drunkmonkey

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

The situation there is so ****ing horrific. Wartime conditions is right.

There definitely lying about what's going on. People are being dragged from their houses, it's like watching the SS in action..

odyssey06

ardinn wrote: »

If this does hit home, and its fairly bad. What will happen to people who cant go to work, whose businesses cant function, whos mortgages need to be paid?
Would the government freeze the collection of loans until such a time the pandemic is over.
What happens after a few weeks when people start to run out of money for food and heating oil and gas, and most of the services we rely on internationally dry up?
This is all very end of days but it would be interesting to hear peoples views.
I read somewhere years ago, Ireland have appaling levels of most things - like after 4 days we start to run out of things, fuel etc

I'm not going to pretend that I have the answers to those thought provoking questions.
But... is there any chance all the stockpiling for Brexit no-deal might help us to weather a temporary crisis?
Or maybe all those reserves have already been used up

morebabies

Is it likely that this may subside in the summer, but like swine flu which eventually went global, be one of the flu viruses going round by next winter and impossible to contain with quarantine measures at that stage?
If so, then the HSE will be under severe pressure if it is widespread along with our normal flu and winter viruses.

tuxy

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There definitely lying about what's going on. People are being dragged from their houses, it's like watching the SS in action..

What is the actual reason for them doing that?
Are they doing it to infected that are self isolating correctly?

leavingirl

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

The situation there is so ****ing horrific. Wartime conditions is right.

The pollution is very bad in Wuhan.

lolanacho

MadYaker wrote: »

But that is a low transmission rate, he infected the people he lived with and nobody else. He was on a skiing holiday, out on the slopes and in bars, restraunts shops etc for days while carrying the virus yet he only infected the people he was living with. Nice to see the French taking proper precautions though.

We don’t really know if he has infected anyone else though....... we’ll have to wait.

There’s a British family in isolation in a hospital in Mallorca at the moment, the father was with a British friend in France who tested positive a few days ago, so he presented himself in hospital....... straight away the hospital initiated the protocol and his wife and their two daughters were also isolated there.
As of now, him, his wife and their 7 year old seem to be ok, their 10 year old is becoming ill with “flu symptoms and a fever”

All of this taken from the Spanish papers and tv channels, they are reporting every “suspected” case. Some may think it’s not right, but personally I’m finding their transparency much healthier than the secrecy Ireland is imposing.

s7ryf3925pivug

endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62-71% ethanol

That is consistent with the advice to use alcohol based handrub that is at least 60% alcohol. I looked at the ingredients of the different types I have and some of them did not have this much (some had water as the primary ingredient even). These still advertised killing 99.9% of germs. Don't know if they had other germicidal ingredients but I wouldn't assume it.

The little ones in Aldi - one of them has more alcohol than the other. The higher one is above 60%. Don't remember if the lower one is too.

odyssey06

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

So can we get really small amounts of the virus to get mild forms of the illness and then have immunity for a few months? (Logistically challenging even if it might be conceptually viable.)
Actually that's what a live vaccine is. Don't suppose any immunologists are browsing who want to evaluate this concept?

The flu vaccine is a big step towards 'herd immunity' because it means that even if vaccinated people encounter the same flu strain, they are not contagious during the period where their "pre-armed" immune system is tackling it.
In terms of what you've proposed, I think that would be a key question.

* Disclaimer: I'm not an immunologist.

cnocbui

tuxy wrote: »

What is the actual reason for them doing that?
Are they doing it to infected that are self isolating correctly?

Supposedly they weren't complying with the self-isolation edict.

wakka12

leavingirl wrote: »

I hear the spread of the coronavirus is slowing down. In a few weeks everyone will have forgotten about it. What a total fake!

This is silly,'a fake', hundreds of people are dead and thousands of others fighting for their life in hospital
Fake because it didnt affect you in Ireland?

odyssey06

leavingirl wrote: »

The pollution is very bad in Wuhan.

Actually that's a very good point. If this virus is hitting people whose respiratory systems have been damaged in some way (smoking, pollution, pre-existing conditions) then that could be a significant factor in explaining why it might hit high-pollution locations hard.