new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

wakka12

Increasing number in Singapore. 3 more now, with no travel history to China, total 43.
Two more patients have become critical, 6 total now
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/wuhan-coronavirus-singapore-new-confirmed-cases-feb-9-12412622
That is almost 15% severe complication rate in a country with extremely good healthcare and a relatively small number of patients and follows a more similar trend that has been observed in China.
But the outcome of the huge sample on the Japanese ship will really help to accurately determine how dangerous the disease is, especially because any mortality or morbidity rate cannot be artificially inflated by mild cases going unnoticed in this instance

BanditLuke

wakka12 wrote: »

Increasing number in Singapore. 3 more now, with no travel history to China, total 43.
Two more patients have become critical, 6 total now

That is almost 15% severe complication rate in a country with extremely good healthcare and a relatively small number of patients and follows a more similar trend that has been observed in China.
But the outcome of the huge sample on the Japanese ship will really help to accurately determine how dangerous the disease is, especially because any mortality or morbidity rate cannot be artificially inflated by mild cases going unnoticed in this instance

If it takes off in Singapore or god forbid Beijing all bets are off for the world economy.

cnocbui

I hope the testing kits in the West are better than those being used in China. There were reports that 30-40% were false negatives on initial testing.

VinLieger

cnocbui wrote: »

I hope the testing kits in the West are better than those being used in China. There were reports that 30-40% were false negatives on initial testing.

Thats due to the virus and not the test kits, theres reports of the same happening in Germany and the US

bodhrandude

VinLieger wrote: »

Thats due to the virus and not the test kits, theres reports of the same happening in Germany and the US

That's what worries me about the unconfirmed Irish cases that it takes a few tests to establish a positive result sometimes.

wakka12

Heard some tests in China showed negative until the 4th and 5th tests

odyssey06

bodhrandude wrote: »

That's what worries me about the unconfirmed Irish cases that it takes a few tests to establish a positive result sometimes.

I think (open to correction) that's because it doesn't test for the presence of the virus so can't detect incubation phase. It can only detect antibodies produced by the bodies when the immune system responds to its presence.

Kermit.de.frog

wakka12 wrote: »

I saw a reddit thread that showed a heat map of Chinese cities and Wuhan was producing very significantly more Co2 emissions than all other cities. It was theorised that it was because of burning so many bodies. But I think it sounds pretty far fetched. Does anyone have any other theories?

Look,

Do you believe what the CCP says?

We all know the figures are bull****.

It is what it is.

What the world is trying to get a grip of is the source. Everything gets so much easier when you know where it came from.

Governments around the world know exactly where this virus came from.

It's not batsoup, and there are not 800 deaths..stick two zeros on and you may be somewhat closer to the truth.

Look at what China has done. Think about what it takes for a country to act like China has. It's not enough. They are fighting a war to protect their two principle coastal cities. They are literally in a "last stand" mentality now.

It's futile. I think it's a matter of days before Beijing falls to the virus. Shanghai maybe a little longer - but the fatal damage is already done.

Even if you rule out an accident, the way China has dealt with this has been appalling. Absolutely appalling and it should revolt the conscience of the world.

auspicious

wakka12 wrote: »

I saw a reddit thread that showed a heat map of Chinese cities and Wuhan was producing very significantly more Co2 emissions than all other cities. It was theorised that it was because of burning so many bodies. But I think it sounds pretty far fetched. Does anyone have any other theories?

There's been a h5n1 outbreak in chickens in Hunan. Also the wet markets' produce under temporary ban has to be disposed of. It should be a permanent ban else we'll continue to see outbreaks threaten lives and social order.

Graces7

wakka12 wrote: »

I saw a reddit thread that showed a heat map of Chinese cities and Wuhan was producing very significantly more Co2 emissions than all other cities. It was theorised that it was because of burning so many bodies. But I think it sounds pretty far fetched. Does anyone have any other theories?

Why " far fetched"? We know they are cremating those who die so this is more than likely.

wakka12

Graces7 wrote: »

Why " far fetched"? We know they are cremating those who die so this is more than likely.

Just the stench in the city would be overwhelming and I would find it hard to believe nobody from there an expat even would have mentioned anything about it

Anyway it seems as though it has been debunked that heat map is actually a forecast not real time and so would not be affected by this new man made intervention, theres a thread on reddit now about it

VinLieger

wakka12 wrote: »

Just the stench in the city would be overwhelming and I would find it hard to believe nobody from there an expat even would have mentioned anything about it

Anyway it seems as though it has been debunked that heat map is actually a forecast not real time and so would not be affected by this new man made intervention, theres a thread on reddit now about it

Yup the "heatmap" people are spreading is from a forecasting site

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f19uc8/debunking_the_burning_bodies_sulphur_sulfur

sdanseo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Look,

Do you believe what the CCP says?

We all know the figures are bull****.

It is what it is.

What the world is trying to get a grip of is the source. Everything gets so much easier when you know where it came from.

Governments around the world know exactly where this virus came from.

It's not batsoup, and there are not 800 deaths..stick two zeros on and you may be somewhat closer to the truth.

Look at what China has done. Think about what it takes for a country to act like China has. It's not enough. They are fighting a war to protect their two principle coastal cities. They are literally in a "last stand" mentality now.

It's futile. I think it's a matter of days before Beijing falls to the virus. Shanghai maybe a little longer - but the fatal damage is already done.

Even if you rule out an accident, the way China has dealt with this has been appalling. Absolutely appalling and it should revolt the conscience of the world.

You seem to be talking as if the problem, if it's as serious as you say, will stay in China. The rest of the world may well thank China for it's draconian quarantine measures if by some chance the worst is contained therein.

What exactly do you think this is? A bioweapon aimed only at the Chinese by themselves?
A bioweapon by the west aimed at China?
Something that will only effect China or potentially the rest of the world as well?

Your conspiracy theory has parts that hold water but it's hard to tell exactl what your theory is. Just snippets of veiled sensationalism - please put the bricks together for me and explain because I do genuinely want the full story.

YFlyer

Somebody on Twitter says the heat signature is from a steel plant.

Prominent_Dawg

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7980883/Video-shows-officials-protective-suits-dragging-suspected-coronavirus-carriers-homes.html Why are people running away from help?

creditcarder

biko wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51409800





Just the flu, officials grabbing citizens for transport away.
https://t.co/3fPU5ta6AM

|Seems like it's not that infectious imo. :P

cnocbui

Graces7 wrote: »

Why " far fetched"? We know they are cremating those who die so this is more than likely.

Someone claimed that it would take incineration of over a million bodies to produce that much SO2, given the amount of sulfer in a human body. No idea if the claim is sound, but if so, one would hope it's ' far -fetched'.

silverharp

looks like a sneaky bugger of a virus

https://twitter.com/CoronaVirusInt/status/1226537721037905921

GooglePlus

cnocbui wrote: »

Someone claimed that it would take incineration of over a million bodies to produce that much SO2, given the amount of sulfer in a human body. No idea if the claim is sound, but if so, one would hope it's ' far -fetched'.

A million people haven't died and even if that happened in such a small space of time, the hit to the work force will send the global economy right down the ****ter.

A million people have not died, however.

theguzman

wakka12 wrote: »

I saw a reddit thread that showed a heat map of Chinese cities and Wuhan was producing very significantly more Co2 emissions than all other cities. It was theorised that it was because of burning so many bodies. But I think it sounds pretty far fetched. Does anyone have any other theories?

All the people quarantined in their homes with central heating on during winter? It is very clear that things are far worse than is being reported but hopefully not as serious as we are seeing leaking out.

cnocbui

GooglePlus wrote: »

A million people haven't died and even if that happened in such a small space of time, the hit to the work force will send the global economy right down the ****ter.

A million people have not died, however.

Agreed, thats why I was trying to convey why it was far-fetched.

Snow Garden

Someone should do a thesis on this thread when the crisis is over.

dwayneshintzy

Snow Garden wrote: »

Someone should do a thesis on this thread when the crisis is over.

Some of it is bordering on hysterical.


I'm living somewhere (HK) that is ostensibly affected by coronavirus (certainly the precautions being taken), and it's an odd one to see people back in Ireland freaking the **** out over it.

saabsaab

I don't think irish people are freaking out about this. It is still low key especially with the elections on.



If anything it's not being taken seriously enough here. We need to keep it out of this Island for as long as possible, whatever that takes.

PokeHerKing

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Some of it is bordering on hysterical.


I'm living somewhere (HK) that is ostensibly affected by coronavirus (certainly the precautions being taken), and it's an odd one to see people back in Ireland freaking the **** out over it.

Its probably because its either a non event or a pandemic. So if you view it like that the odds are a coin toss. So why wouldn't you be worried/take an interest?

s7ryf3925pivug

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Some of it is bordering on hysterical.


I'm living somewhere (HK) that is ostensibly affected by coronavirus (certainly the precautions being taken), and it's an odd one to see people back in Ireland freaking the **** out over it.

I got worried when they started assuring us how our healthcare system could handle an extra 5k people suddenly needing hospitalisation. I don't see that, they've been sweeping problems with the healthcare system under the carpet as it is.

cnocbui

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Some of it is bordering on hysterical.


I'm living somewhere (HK) that is ostensibly affected by coronavirus (certainly the precautions being taken), and it's an odd one to see people back in Ireland freaking the **** out over it.

Hong Kong is quarantining all travellers from China for 14 days.

There is panic buying and hoarding:

Almost everyone is wearing a surgical mask in the city now. Some have even resorted to donning respirator masks once used to counter the effects of police teargas.

Even Hong Kong's Chief Executive Carrie Lam wears a facial mask during her news conferences.

https://news.sky.com/story/panic-buying-in-hong-kong-amid-alarming-spread-of-coronavirus-11924399

3,600 people were quarantined on a cruise ship for days.

But your just kicking back and chillin, unlike the the rest of HK, telling us 'we're' over-reacting. Sure you are in the same Hong Kong?

Hego Damask

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Some of it is bordering on hysterical.


I'm living somewhere (HK) that is ostensibly affected by coronavirus (certainly the precautions being taken), and it's an odd one to see people back in Ireland freaking the **** out over it.

Power of the media ...

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

But your just kicking back and chillin, unlike the the rest of HK, telling us 'we're' over-reacting. Sure you are in the same Hong Kong?

Yes, actually. He probably is.

Where I am, there are a good few confirmed cases, most people are in masks, there has been some panic buying, over a thousand people have been automatically quarantined because they came back from China, there are field hospitals being built that can hold thousands of patients, schools and universities are shut
and...
life feels completely normal. I went for beers last night in a packed bar. Before that, I cooked food with meat and veg I bought in a fully-stocked shop.

This thread does not represent reality. Just like any politics thread, or a soccer thread, or a music thread. The tweets don't represent reality. The people following them are like the people in this thread who are hitting F5 every 30 seconds. If you really think Hong Kong is so bad right now that that poster is somehow wrong, you are of these people.

Stark

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Some of it is bordering on hysterical.


I'm living somewhere (HK) that is ostensibly affected by coronavirus (certainly the precautions being taken), and it's an odd one to see people back in Ireland freaking the **** out over it.

I think it's more disaster porn than hysteria tbh.

dwayneshintzy

cnocbui wrote: »

Hong Kong is quarantining all travellers from China for 14 days.

There is panic buying and hoarding:

https://news.sky.com/story/panic-buying-in-hong-kong-amid-alarming-spread-of-coronavirus-11924399

3,600 people were quarantined on a cruise ship for days.

But your just kicking back and chillin, unlike the the rest of HK, telling us 'we're' over-reacting. Sure you are in the same Hong Kong?

Some people are being very silly and going mad buying toilet roll, yes. Are you in HK or Ireland? I went for a hike in Ma on Shan yesterday and then spent most of today at a dog park in Admiralty.

I didn't say Irish people are overreacting, I said some people in this thread (who are in Ireland) are overreacting.

s7ryf3925pivug

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Some people are being very silly and going mad buying toilet roll, yes. Are you in HK or Ireland? I went for a hike in Ma on Shan yesterday and then spent most of today at a dog park in Admiralty.

I didn't say Irish people are overreacting, I said some people in this thread (who are in Ireland) are overreacting.

I played in UL with my kid. Then I went to pick up extra toilet roll. I wanted to go to UL again with him today but it was stormy so we played in the garden instead.

Not sure what you're imagining. Nobody is locking themselves into bunkers. Some people are stocking up a few things so they can skip a few shopping trips if there is an outbreak.

dwayneshintzy

Eh? I was responding to someone who'd asked if I was really in the same HK as he was describing. The "stockpiling" by people in HK he'd referenced was mostly people going mad buying toilet roll due to false info that was being spread on WhatsApp and WeChat.

I'm not imagining anything, I know well people in Ireland aren't generally freaking out about coronavirus. Same can't be said about some people in this thread though, which was what I was originally commenting on.

saabsaab

Well, a lot isn't known about this new coronavirus but in no particular order these are the facts


1. It is highly infectious as shown by the rate of spread in Wuhan and the cruise ship case.
2. There is no cure or vaccine as of now.
3. It is fatal for a certain percentage that are infected.
4. The Chinese Government is taking it very seriously and have great difficulty controlling the spread in spite of the actions taken.
5. We would be better off not having it arrive here.



All the above is plenty good reason to be anxious about this arriving here even 'freak out' about it.

RebelButtMunch

saabsaab wrote: »

Well, a lot isn't known about this new coronavirus but in no particular order these are the facts


1. It is highly infectious as shown by the rate of spread in Wuhan and the cruise ship case.
2. There is no cure or vaccine as of now.
3. It is fatal for a certain percentage that are infected.
4. The Chinese Government is taking it very seriously and have great difficulty controlling the spread in spite of the actions taken.
5. We would be better off not having it arrive here.



All the above is plenty good reason to be anxious about this arriving here even 'freak out' about it.

No it's not.

saabsaab

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

No it's not.

'Oh Yes it is!'

Panto answer

sondagefaux

saabsaab wrote: »

Well, a lot isn't known about this new coronavirus but in no particular order these are the facts


1. It is highly infectious as shown by the rate of spread in Wuhan and the cruise ship case.
2. There is no cure or vaccine as of now.
3. It is fatal for a certain percentage that are infected.
4. The Chinese Government is taking it very seriously and have great difficulty controlling the spread in spite of the actions taken.
5. We would be better off not having it arrive here.



All the above is plenty good reason to be anxious about this arriving here even 'freak out' about it.

The mortality rate is about 2%, although it could be far less as a lot of people who get it are asymptomatic or have such mild symptoms they don't even know they have it, and it's usually people who are already vulnerable through other illness or underlying health problems.

s7ryf3925pivug

WHO situation report for today still says Global risk: High.

CinemaGuy45

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

No it's not.

saabsaab wrote: »

'Oh Yes it is!'

Glad I kept away from the silly sites online and came here to stay informed.:D

Timberrrrrrrr

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Glad I kept away from the silly sites online and came here to stay informed.:D

It's like an xmas panto!!


He said

She said

SeaBreezes

Snow Garden wrote: »

Someone should do a thesis on this thread when the crisis is over.

sondagefaux wrote: »

The mortality rate is about 2%, although it could be far less as a lot of people who get it are asymptomatic or have such mild symptoms they don't even know they have it, and it's usually people who are already vulnerable through other illness or underlying health problems.

It's my understanding from WHO that 80% infected get a mild flu. Approx 15% are critical ( needing medical assistance to breathe) and 2-3% fatal regardless of ICU and medical intervention.
So, if your lucky it's mild. If you get severe symptoms and there is medical assistance, then you have a 1 in 4 chance of surviving.

But if hospitals are overwhelmed (as this spreads so fast that is an possibility) then the mortality rate will spike as the 15% of severe cases will not get the assistance they need to breathe long enough to fight off the disease.

So, our best bet is to slow down the spread of the disease. And forewarned is a good thing. But I can't see how any of us can avoid rolling the dice
With this bug eventually it's more infectious than flu with Ro of 3
To 4, if I understand it correctly.

Hysteria helps no one, but it's just the flu is equally unhelpful.

Does anyone have any updates on the Wirral or the Germans?

fritzelly

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1226630840077160448

Fr_Dougal

cnocbui wrote: »

A bit more on those amazing official numbers out of China.

https://twitter.com/Charlie_Box/status/1226203341086175233

There are currently 40,134 confirmed cases worldwide, including 904 fatalities.

2.2%

fritzelly

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

There are currently 40,134 confirmed cases worldwide, including 904 fatalities.

2.2%

The reported cases do not make sense - the QQ site always reports higher numbers than BNO News does at the same time
Maybe QQ have duplicates

edit actually BNO have a slightly higher confirmed today

ardinn

Todays updates

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTGEf1u-wVc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjTpd8KzUn0

BBC News - Coronavirus: Thousands on cruise ship allowed to disembark after tests
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51433079

Am I missing something or are we giving up on quarantine now?

silverharp

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Hysteria helps no one, but it's just the flu is equally unhelpful.

Does anyone have any updates on the Wirral or the Germans?

still curious if this might be worse for Asians for genetic reasons? if it ended up being only generally fatal for Asians and mostly sniffles for everyone else, then that would give it a particular framing.
the severe cases sound awful that means other people die because of a clogged health service, staff sick etc.

hmmm

silverharp wrote: »

still curious if this might be worse for Asians for genetic reasons?

There was an early study based on a sample size of 8, and in the 8 was 1 Asian person who got infected. Ever since that (ridiculous imo) study, there has been this persistent rumour that it would only affect Asian people - I think it's largely people grasping for straws at this moment.

It also looks to me that the strategy worldwide has now shifted to slowing it down, as containment largely looks impossible owing to the size of the initial outbreak. There's not going to be much point in the media breathlessly reporting every inidividual case, we're just going to have to get used to being a bit more careful about washing our hands, and if feeling sick or feverish employers are going to have to encourage people to stay at home for a week or two just in case. Hopefully the greatest victim of all this is the open office.

We should have faster testing in the near future, hopefully Summer reduces the spread, and there should hopefully be a vaccine available early next year.

Fr_Dougal

Deleted User wrote: »

BBC News - Coronavirus: Thousands on cruise ship allowed to disembark after tests
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51433079

Am I missing something or are we giving up on quarantine now?

That’s not the cruise ship with the 80~ confirmed cased, different vessel.

This one was quarantined because they thought the staff might be infected.

SeaBreezes

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

There are currently 40,134 confirmed cases worldwide, including 904 fatalities.

2.2%

So we know the progression of the disease is 7-14 days asymptomatic but infectious.
Week1 symptoms of a flu. If lucky recover.
Week2 severe symptoms, need hospital assistance.
Week3-4 recover or pass away.

So, the mortality rate of today should be compared with #of infected 3-4 weeks ago? What does that work out as?