new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

drunkmonkey

Anyone want to nerd out in Excel https://www.andology.com/coronavirus-prediction-tool

tara73

so Beijing is on lockdown now too, is that right? with the same measures as in Wuhan? So Shanghai will follow suit very soon I guess..

That's pretty bad. I mean, we can say whole China is on lockdown at this stage. Will be interesting how that will effect the world economy. Could be pretty bad, kind of every country in the world is doing im-/export with china more or less...maybe more a subject for the economy forum.

pc7

Indeed tells 1000 staff to work from home
https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/indeed-staff-in-dublin-told-to-work-from-home-amid-fears-of-possible-coronavirus-exposure-38941936.html

Quantum Erasure

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It all started with 1 case look where we are a few weeks later...

ThePopehimself

pc7 wrote: »

Indeed tells 1000 staff to work from home
https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/indeed-staff-in-dublin-told-to-work-from-home-amid-fears-of-possible-coronavirus-exposure-38941936.html

That's a very sensible move. Very prudent.

wakka12

cnocbui wrote: »

The Chinese now say the virus is subject to airborne transmission.



https://amp.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-is-airborne-chinese-official-confirms/news-story/201218c04deb601b1b144f4cbbc4d807?__twitter_impression=true

15.7% of cases end up in serious/critical condition. Anyone know how that compares to influenza?

1% hospitalisation rate for flu.
New report by international WHO officials have confirmed a mortality rate of over 4% in Wuhan. It is has actually become the city with the second highest mortality rate, Tianeman has recorded a mortality rate of over 5%.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/coronavirus-hubei-province-reveals-fatality-rate-for-first-time-wuhan-comes-in-second


4 new cases in England with a total of 8 now as UK declares 'major and imminent threat to public health'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/coronavirus-uk-declares-outbreak-serious-threat-to-health?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

ThePopehimself

wakka12 wrote:

4 new cases in England
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/coronavirus-uk-declares-outbreak-serious-threat-to-health?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

...and it's reassuring to see they are taking it seriously with the announcements this morning. They are not taking any chances.

s7ryf3925pivug

So when do you guys think it will get here - or do you think it will?
I reckon it will be announced this week.

givyjoe

odyssey06 wrote: »

You don't do that for the flu. This is not business as usual.

Because it ISNT the flu and has a much higher mortality rate.

Quantum Erasure

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

So when do you guys think it will get here - or do you think it will?
I reckon it will be announced this week.

I'd say we might hear news today

radiotrickster

In the Irish Times:

Employees at the Irish offices of online recruiter Indeed have been told to work from home this week amid concerns that a staff member has been exposed to the coronavirus.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/irish-employees-at-indeed-work-from-home-amid-coronavirus-concerns-1.4168113

An employee from Singapore visited the Dublin site and “may have been exposed to the virus.”

wakka12

66 more cases on Japanese ship, total 136

RebelButtMunch

pc7 wrote: »

Indeed tells 1000 staff to work from home
https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/indeed-staff-in-dublin-told-to-work-from-home-amid-fears-of-possible-coronavirus-exposure-38941936.html

Covering there arses there. I guess most people's contracts would stipulate a safe working environment, and at the moment they cant 100% guarantee it.

s7ryf3925pivug

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

I'd say we might hear news today

Yeah me too

car_radio19834

Can someone explain to me how China is going back to work when they extended their new year at a stage when the virus was much less spread? Doesn't make sense to me.

If the extension was valid a few weeks ago, it's more valid now.

car_radio19834

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https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1226808778454118407

Ubbquittious

car_radio19834 wrote: »

Can someone explain to me how China is going back to work when they extended their new year at a stage when the virus was much less spread? Doesn't make sense to me.

If the extension was valid a few weeks ago, it's more valid now.

Greed. Wheels of commerce

wakka12

car_radio19834 wrote: »

Can someone explain to me how China is going back to work when they extended their new year at a stage when the virus was much less spread? Doesn't make sense to me.

If the extension was valid a few weeks ago, it's more valid now.

Because you can't just stop an economy forever . Even though there is that danger you still need to work to afford food /heat

B.A._Baracus

I would hate to be on that Japanese cruise ship. You would feel like you are just waiting around to catch the virus and die as they won't let you leave.

It's messed up as they don't want to let anyone off out of fear someone may have it, but that they don't care about everyone getting it at the same time by keeping them on.

odyssey06

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

I would hate to be on that Japanese cruise ship. You would feel like you are just waiting around to catch the virus and they won't let you leave.
It's messed up as it's like they don't want to let anyone off out of fear someone may have it, that they don't care about everyone getting it.

Unfortunately that's the nature of quarantine and always has been.

You're exposing a small number to high risk in the hope of preventing risk spreading to everyone else.

If they let them off the ship, and the virus spreads to the general population, they'd be exposed regardless.
It's a case of least worst option.

ohnonotgmail

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

I would hate to be on that Japanese cruise ship. You would feel like you are just waiting around to catch the virus and die as they won't let you leave.

It's messed up as they don't want to let anyone off out of fear someone may have it, but that they don't care about everyone getting it at the same time by keeping them on.

Given the number on the ship that have already tested positive that fear is not ungrounded. They are confining passengers to their cabin so if they dont already have it their risk of contracting it from an already infected passenger is non-existent to low. Their actions are entirely justified.

circadian

ThePopehimself wrote: »

...and it's reassuring to see they are taking it seriously with the announcements this morning. They are not taking any chances.

The changes in regulations in the UK are a result of one of the people quarantined in The Wirral threatening to abscond. Cabin fever is setting in it seems.

wakka12

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

I would hate to be on that Japanese cruise ship. You would feel like you are just waiting around to catch the virus and die as they won't let you leave.

It's messed up as they don't want to let anyone off out of fear someone may have it, but that they don't care about everyone getting it at the same time by keeping them on.

They do, it's why you are confined to your room. So you don't catch it off others
But based off the ferry rooms I've stayed in , the Ines without natural air or light, being locked there for 14 days is not far off torture. Not joking

ThePopehimself

circadian wrote: »

The changes in regulations in the UK are a result of one of the people quarantined in The Wirral threatening to abscond. Cabin fever is setting in it seems.

That's impressive. The authorities aren't taking even the slightest chance.

zell12

DailyMail image sez Ireland has virus cases :eek: or we have rejoined UK :eek:

https://focustaiwan.tw/sci-tech/202002090008
Experts have blamed a form of systemic inflammatory response syndrome called "cytokine storm" for killing some novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-infected patients who were not very sick in the early stage of infection but eventually died of multiple organ failure, according to Chinese media reports.

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

   https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/more-than-1000-isolated-in-queensland-as-part-of-coronavirus-response-20200210-p53zft.html ;

1,000 people in isolation in Queensland

Earlier in this thread, someone asked what did we want to see from the HSE.

How about more like this:

"There is no hiding of any of this. I will be standing up immediately when we have any confirmed cases, and I know every single confirmed case in the state, because the government very, very, very rapidly made this a notifiable disease," she said.

I wish I was in Australia or NZ right now, for several reasons, mostly nothing to do with this. Australia actually has a functional health system.

Wibbs

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The number of people infected went from 20k to 40k in just 1 week

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Funny enough sme are wondering why China's official figures are just a tad too clean... https://twitter.com/Charlie_Box/status/1226203341086175233

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ez13dv/oc_quadratic_coronavirus_epidemic_growth_model

As one chap notes:

If I'm right, this near perfect "Chinese Propaganda" quadratic model will provide the world press and the WHO with the following numbers over the next few days:
05/02/2020 23435 cases 489 fatalities
06/02/2020 26885 cases 561 fatalities
07/02/2020 30576 cases 639 fatalities
08/02/2020 34506 cases 721 fatalities
09/02/2020 38675 cases 808 fatalities
10/02/2020 43084 cases 900 fatalities
11/02/2020 47733 cases 997 fatalities
Quite sad, considering all the commendations for transparency bestowed upon China by the WHO!

With each day his predictions are holding based on the Chinese "statistics". They're not even bothering to add some variability.

Their government has previous with this. https://bmcmedethics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12910-019-0406-6#citeas That was their stats regarding organ donation. From that paper:

COTRS data conforms almost precisely to a mathematical formula (which first appeared to be a general quadratic, but with further confirmatory data was discovered to be a simpler one-parameter quadratic) while Central Red Cross data mirrors it, albeit imperfectly. The analysis of both datasets suggests human-directed data manufacture and manipulation. Contradictory, implausible, or anomalous data artefacts were found in five provincial datasets, suggesting that these data may have been manipulated to enforce conformity with central quotas. A number of the distinctive features of China’s current organ procurement and allocation system are discussed, including apparent misclassification of nonvoluntary donors as voluntary.

Basically China's official figures for the progress of coronavirus seem to be following exactly the formula for quadratic growth. To the degree that you can predict what they're going to release as figures ahead of time. Which seems very bloody suspicious. Then again the Chinese government are police state ****, so not a shock.

Which means of course we've no real clue how bad or not so bad this is turning out to be.

cnocbui

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Given the number on the ship that have already tested positive that fear is not ungrounded. They are confining passengers to their cabin so if they dont already have it their risk of contracting it from an already infected passenger is non-existent to low. Their actions are entirely justified.

I disagree. The virus is airborne transmissible. They would have a ventilation system on the ship. Depending on it's configuration, it might be spreading it, not to mention the prospect of crew involved in food preparation who are asymptomatic spreading it to everyone via that route.

They should clear one of their many islands and offload the passengers there. Keeping them bottled up and concentrated with an airborne pathogen may be tantamount to murder, for some.

ohnonotgmail

cnocbui wrote: »

I disagree. The virus is airborne transmissible. They would have a ventilation system on the ship. Depending on it's configuration, it might be spreading it, not to mention the prospect of crew involved in food preparation who are asymptomatic spreading it to everyone via that route.

They should clear one of their many islands and offload the passengers there. Keeping them bottled up and concentrated with an airborne pathogen may be tantamount to murder, for some.

Is it airborne in the way you describe? My understanding is that close contact is required for transmission. The CDC agrees with me.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://focustaiwan.tw/sci-tech/202002090008
Experts have blamed a form of systemic inflammatory response syndrome called "cytokine storm" for killing some novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-infected patients who were not very sick in the early stage of infection but eventually died of multiple organ failure, according to Chinese media reports.

I believe the Videos by the medical doctor have highlighted that as a possibility already. Affects younger people especially afaik

The cytokine storm (hypercytokinemia) is the systemic expression of a healthy and vigorous immune system resulting in the release of more than 150 known inflammatory mediators ..

Cytokine storms have potential to do significant damage to body tissues and organs. If a cytokine storm occurs in the lungs, for example, fluids and immune cells such as macrophages may accumulate and eventually block off the airways, potentially resulting in death...

The occurrence of a “cytokine storm” has been suggested as an explanation for the devastating nature of the 1918 influenza pandemic and perhaps H5N1 influenza. Influenza is thought to be one of the rare conditions able to cause a cytokine storm. [

https://www.sinobiological.com/cytokine-storm-cytokine-storms-a-5800.html

gozunda

circadian wrote: »

The changes in regulations in the UK are a result of one of the people quarantined in The Wirral threatening to abscond. Cabin fever is setting in it seems.

What are the new regulations - if you dont mind me asking?

cnocbui

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Is it airborne in the way you describe? My understanding is that close contact is required for transmission. The CDC agrees with me.

Yes it is, CDC are out of date and slow. I provided a link two or three pages back.

ThePopehimself

gozunda wrote: »

What are the new regulations - if you dont mind me asking?

As of this morning, people in the UK can be quarantined /isolated without their consent as a result of a passenger on the first UK flight from Wuhan - (who is currently being held in quarantine on the Wirral) - threatened to abscond.

It is in the interest of public safety.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

I believe the Videos by the medical doctor have highlighted that as a possibility already. Affects younger people especially afaik

Yeah he did. Like your link, he explained thats why the Spanish Flu, rather than killing middle aged and very elderly people, actually killed young people (20s) and very elderly. The young, fit and healthy bodies produce the cytokine storm. Very concerning if that's happening here also.

Wibbs

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Is it airborne in the way you describe? My understanding is that close contact is required for transmission. The CDC agrees with me.

Apparently the CDC are behind the curve on this. https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/china-confirms-coronavirus-is-airborne/ar-BBZOXg2

The deadly coronavirus is airborne, a Shanghai official has confirmed.

On Saturday it was announced the virus can now spread via aerosol transmission - meaning it can drift through the air for an extended period of time and cause infection if breathed in.

"Aerosol transmission refers to the mixing of the virus with droplets in the air to form aerosols which causes infection after inhalation," Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau deputy head Zeng Qun is quoted as saying by China Daily.

Stark

Cytokine storm was also implicated in SARS and bird flu I believe.

Mic 1972

The 2% death rate looks like a very inaccurate calculation
The rate should be based on the total people who either died or recovered, we should not include the total people infected and not yet dead/recovered

Total Infected = 40000
Total death = 900
Total recovered = 3500

Death + Recovered = 4400
Death rate = 900 / 4400 = 20%

the vast majority of infected people are still sick and we dont know at this point if they are going to die or survive. Once we do those number should be added to the calculation

drunkmonkey

24 day incubation period https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-incubation-period-symptoms-china-sars-length-days-time-a9326591.html

dominatinMC

ThePopehimself wrote: »

As of this morning, people in the UK can be quarantined /isolated without their consent as a result of a passenger on the first UK flight from Wuhan - (who is currently being held in quarantine on the Wirral) - threatened to abscond.

It is in the interest of public safety.

Proper order too. A heavy-handed approach could be needed to keep this in check

Spudmonkey

What's the procedure or is there any for people returning from Asia. I'm supposed to be coming home from Vietnam in a weeks time and I haven't seen anything regarding getting tested once I'm back/isolating myself or anything.

Saw some mention of not travelling to China but little else!

josip

If the spread of coronavirus can be kept to a minimum now, will it stop spreading and disappear in late spring/summer like a normal flu?

givyjoe

Wibbs wrote: »

Apparently the CDC are behind the curve on this. https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/china-confirms-coronavirus-is-airborne/ar-BBZOXg2

So does this mean I need one of those masks, or a Dunnes bag over my head.

Fr_Dougal

givyjoe wrote: »

So does this mean I need one of those masks, or a Dunnes bag over my head.

A ‘bag for life’!

ThePopehimself

Spudmonkey wrote: »

What's the procedure or is there any for people returning from Asia. I'm supposed to be coming home from Vietnam in a weeks time and I haven't seen anything regarding getting tested once I'm back/isolating myself or anything.

Saw some mention of not travelling to China but little else!

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus.html

'You do not need to follow any specific advice in relation to coronavirus if you have not been to mainland China'.

Other than that, you only need to follow advice if you feel you have been exposed.

That's about it really. And sure once you arrive at an Irish Airport, you'll see that you can just walk on through, no temp check, no mask. Safe as houses!;) We're all grand here.

So.....mulling this over.......

Can catch it from breathing it in, touching eyes or nose with contaminated hands etc
It can take 24 days to incubate and show symptoms
You may need to be tested again and again and again etc before testing positive**
Pre symtoms you can be contagious
After feeling better you are still contagious for a while
Antibodies likely do not last like a regular corona virus and you can relapse/be reinfected
It can cause cytokine storms in young people and cause organ failure
It can wipe out the immune system of old people and cause organ failure
Pneumonia can permanently damage lungs (and your risk is higher next time you get it)
If not contained it becomes part of the cold and flu season (and therefore reduce life expectancy rates across the world - who is going to make it to 90 if that thing is on the loose??)

** This could be because the tests are testing for our antibodies for it, likely we dont make many then - have a think about that.

Therefore I conclude that once this kind of knowledge sinks in at government level (sounds like its happening in the UK and elsewhere atm) the only solution will be shutdowns. I`d get stocking up on food & disinfectants now. Worst case scenario this could be a long ride - better prepared than not. Best case scenario and the info coming to us in drips and drabs over the past few weeks has all been highly exaggerated. Heres hoping thats the case but it shouldnt stop you being prepared.

Steve F

"Hand washing is essential during this outbreak"

God help us all if that's the case...my experience of my fellow human beings...I would elaborate but its approaching lunchtime....Errrghh!!

circadian

Steve F wrote: »

"Hand washing is essential during this outbreak"

God help us all if that's the case...my experience of my fellow human beings...I would elaborate but its approaching lunchtime....Errrghh!!

I've often seen our deskside support guy not wash his hands in the toilets.

Think about that.

Steve F

circadian wrote: »

I've often seen our deskside support guy not wash his hands in the toilets.

Think about that.

I'd rather not....:o

Gynoid

Steve F wrote: »

"Hand washing is essential during this outbreak"

God help us all if that's the case...my experience of my fellow human beings...I would elaborate but its approaching lunchtime....Errrghh!!

So far I am not worried, because what is the point. But I have become quite conscious of just how many surfaces I touch that have probably recently been touched by many others. Unless I finally sucçumb to my living in a space suit fantasy, and everyone else joins in, I conclude we are all gonna die.