new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Steve F

Gynoid wrote: »

So far I am not worried, because what is the point. But I have become quite conscious of just how many surfaces I touch that have probably recently been touched by many others. Unless I finally sucçumb to my living in a space suit fantasy, and everyone else joins in, I conclude we are all gonna die.

Agree...live your life one day at a time
However it's the lack of personal hygiene that gets me.:eek:

GooglePlus

I had heard that this thing is adapted for cold/dry climate and that it should hinder dramatically in China when their hot season comes in but if it's spreading in Singapore right now, that hope is fecked.

wakka12

Seventh patient in Singapore now critical out of total 45 confirmed

WrenBoy

Flying out to a ski resort in France the weekend, hearing about 4 britons who contracted the virus in a nearby resort has dampened my excitement somewhat :eek:

BanditLuke

wakka12 wrote: »

Seventh patient in Singapore now critical out of total 45 confirmed

That's worrying. Iv'e heard the official numbers coming out of China may be claptrap this would lead me to believe that to be true.

GooglePlus

GooglePlus wrote: »

I had heard that this thing is adapted for cold/dry climate and that it should hinder dramatically in China when their hot season comes in but if it's spreading in Singapore right now, that hope is fecked.

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2058047651/348/#post112488840
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-30/is-there-a-lower-incidence-of-cold-and-flu-infections-in-tropics/10381902
Probably want to be in a hot desert right now with no air conditioning

cnocbui

Gynoid wrote: »

So far I am not worried, because what is the point. But I have become quite conscious of just how many surfaces I touch that have probably recently been touched by many others. Unless I finally sucçumb to my living in a space suit fantasy, and everyone else joins in, I conclude we are all gonna die.

Presumably at least 85% of people recover, so no, we aren't all going to die. :rolleyes:

Mic 1972

wakka12 wrote: »

Seventh patient in Singapore now critical out of total 45 confirmed

the numbers make sense, 1 out of 5 on average dies. At least so far

cnocbui

Steve F wrote: »

"Hand washing is essential during this outbreak"

God help us all if that's the case...my experience of my fellow human beings...I would elaborate but its approaching lunchtime....Errrghh!!

Do people not understand what an airborne virus means? I'm not having a go at you, but unfortunately just washing hands may not cut it.

Gynoid

cnocbui wrote: »

Presumably at least 85% of people recover, so no, we aren't all going to die. :rolleyes:

It was a joke Obviously not a great one.
But now you are telling me 15% of us are all gonna die......AAaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!

Mic 1972

Gynoid wrote: »

It was a joke Obviously not a great one.
But now you are telling me 15% of us are all gonna die......AAaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!

more likely 20% so far

Gynoid

Mic 1972 wrote: »

more likely 20% so far

Oh I was so tempted to make a bold Greta joke, but look at how good I am being!

Anyways, I hope to goodness this is not the invisible foe that does for us.

Chatting about vaping at bias here and one of the guys mentioned the virus. That big cloud of vape that you all hate is actually a visual representation of what your breath is always doing. Ain't escaping that easily.

saabsaab

Unless it starts to die back soon i.e. in the next 2 months this is starting to look like the predicted 'big one' like 1918/19 flue pandemic. No good news on this really yet.

Steve F

cnocbui wrote: »

Do people not understand what an airborne virus means? I'm not having a go at you, but unfortunately just washing hands may not cut it.

I know where you are coming from and yes I also know you are not having a go but lack of hand washing will accelerate the spread also if I am not mistaken :eek:

whiskeyman

If the incubation period is longer than 14 days, it's going to be a cagey 2 weeks or so ahead of us.

Mic 1972

saabsaab wrote: »

Unless it starts to die back soon i.e. in the next 2 months this is starting to look like the predicted 'big one' like 1918/19 flue pandemic. No good news on this really yet.

the thing is, how is this going to die down? at the moment it's spreading and there is no cure

RebelButtMunch

Deleted User wrote: »

Chatting about vaping at bias here and one of the guys mentioned the virus. That big cloud of vape that you all hate is actually a visual representation of what your breath is always doing. Ain't escaping that easily.

What about farts, you can smell them on the other side of the gaff!

RebelButtMunch

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the thing is, how is this going to die down? at the moment it's spreading and there is no cure

Yet

wakka12

saabsaab wrote: »

Unless it starts to die back soon i.e. in the next 2 months this is starting to look like the predicted 'big one' like 1918/19 flue pandemic. No good news on this really yet.

Yeh it really looked as though it was going to be contained by China there for a bit. But right now it appears as though it actually is a pretty nasty little bug and will become pandemic. Weird that it would be almost exactly 100 years since the last major pandemic

Dave0301

A GP practice in Brighton has been temporarily closed after a staff member tested positive for the coronavirus.

It is on BBC News now. That could very easily be passed on to any patients that have been into that practice and brought home afterwards.

s7ryf3925pivug

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

Yet

We won't find a cure because we don't generally find cures for viruses.

We probably will be able to vaccinate against it in the same sort of limited way that we can against flu.

I think there is a real possibility of profound change in society in response to this virus if it becomes as established as it looks like it might.

s7ryf3925pivug

This keeps going through my head recently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AW4nSq0hAc

I didn't get that manbearpig was about climate change the first time they did it.

Mic 1972

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

We won't find a cure because we don't generally find cures for viruses.

We probably will be able to vaccinate against it in the same sort of limited way that we can against flu.

I think there is a real possibility of profound change in society in response to this virus if it becomes as established as it looks like it might.

Sadly, that's what i'm expecting too

BanditLuke

Dave0301 wrote: »

A GP practice in Brighton has been temporarily closed after a staff member tested positive for the coronavirus.

It is on BBC News now. That could very easily be passed on to any patients that have been into that practice and brought home afterwards.

It's going to run rampant through the UK imo. Can't believe the lack of talk about it here in Ireland. It's not panic or tinfoil hat stuff when you look at the state of our health service here to be worried about it.

Drumpot

Are there any available statistics that show this is more potent or likely to lead to death then the regular flu?

What is the normal flu mortality rate v the corona virus? Since we can’t trust China’s figures I presume we don’t really know yet....

marvin80

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the thing is, how is this going to die down? at the moment it's spreading and there is no cure

People are recovering from it as well - you're making it sound like anyone that gets it dies.

This applies to some of the ridiculous stuff being spouted by idiots in this thread:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51429400

wakka12

Drumpot wrote: »

Are there any available statistics that show this is more potent or likely to lead to death then the regular flu?

What is the normal flu mortality rate v the corona virus? Since we can’t trust China’s figures I presume we don’t really know yet....

Yes, seasonal flu 0.1%, coronavirus 2%. This has been the estimate for over a month now from a wide range of sources incl WHO and CDC so I assume it it based on the outcome of a large sample of patients over a relatively long period and takes other variable factors into account. It is theorised that the mortality rate may be inflated artificially by milder cases going unrecorded but it seems unlikely now as anyone with flu symptoms in China is obliged by law now to report to a hospital, and you need an ID card to buy cold medication.

Mic 1972

Drumpot wrote: »

Are there any available statistics that show this is more potent or likely to lead to death then the regular flu?

What is the normal flu mortality rate v the corona virus? Since we can’t trust China’s figures I presume we don’t really know yet....

There is a real time update available online that reports on total people infected, deaths and recovered people
at the moment 80% of people have recovered and 20% died

wakka12

Mic 1972 wrote: »

There is a real time update available online that reports on total people infected, deaths and recovered people
at the moment 80% of people have recovered and 20% died

What? Both are wrong. Nowhere near 20% have died and nowhere near 80% have recovered.
The vast majority of cases are still 'ongoing', neither recovered nor likely to die

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
In china, 40.1k cases, 3280 have recovered = 8%
908 have died = 2.2%
6450 experiencing severe complications =16%

tuxy

Mic 1972 wrote: »

at the moment 80% of people have recovered and 20% died

Which virus is this referring to?
It sounds like MERS but the fatality rate was a bit higher.

Drumpot

Mic 1972 wrote: »

There is a real time update available online that reports on total people infected, deaths and recovered people
at the moment 80% of people have recovered and 20% died

20%? That sounds innacurate or at least a statistic that’s missing a lot of information.

Does anybody have a link to a website with general information like statistics on infected and deaths outside of China? I think it’s fair to say that the statistics from China are very likely not accurate.

wakka12

Drumpot wrote: »

20%? That sounds innacurate or at least a statistic that’s missing a lot of information.

Does anybody have a link to a website with general information like statistics on infected and deaths outside of China? I think it’s fair to say that the statistics from China are very likely not accurate.

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
Tracks Chinese and international
The sample size outside China is small with the majority of the cases being on a boat in Japan and confirmed within the last 48 hours

s7ryf3925pivug

Can an ultraviolet disinfection lamp kill the new coronavirus?
UV lamps should not be used to sterilize hands or other areas of skin as UV radiation can cause skin irritation.
[I guess UV does kill it though or at least is not known not to or they would have phrased this differently.]

Is it safe to receive a letter or a package from China?
Yes, it is safe. People receiving packages from China are not at risk of contracting the new coronavirus. From previous analysis, we know coronaviruses do not survive long on objects, such as letters or packages.

Can pets at home spread the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV)?
At present, there is no evidence that companion animals/pets such as dogs or cats can be infected with the new coronavirus

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters

Mic 1972

wakka12 wrote: »

What? Both are wrong. Nowhere near 20% have died and nowhere near 80% have recovered.
The vast majority of cases are still 'ongoing', neither recovered nor likely to die

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
In china, 40.1k cases, 3280 have recovered = 8%
908 have died = 2.2%
6450 experiencing severe complications =16%

death rate = total death / (total death + recover)
you can't include to the calculation the "ongoing" people as we dont know if they are going to die or recover
So, the correct death rate so far is 20%

wakka12

Mic 1972 wrote: »

death rate = total death / (total death + recover)
you can't include to the calculation the "ongoing" people as we dont know if they are going to die or recover
So, the correct death rate so far is 20%

But it is never actually calculated that way because death and recovery take different amounts of time. Of course the best wya to assess it is to take a large sample of early infections and calculate the outcome of all of them. I'm sure that is how the figure of around 2% has been arrived at

Mic 1972

Drumpot wrote: »

20%? That sounds innacurate or at least a statistic that’s missing a lot of information.

Does anybody have a link to a website with general information like statistics on infected and deaths outside of China? I think it’s fair to say that the statistics from China are very likely not accurate.

That's far from inaccurate. The data is pulled from the daily update on Death, Recoveries and total infected. The stat was pulled today

Drumpot

wakka12 wrote: »

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
Tracks Chinese and international
The sample size outside China is small with the majority of the cases being on a boat in Japan and confirmed within the last 48 hours

Only 1 death in 390 cases outside of China? Now wonder it’s not getting the kind of attention or concern a 2% virus would get. If or when those death rates increase, then we might see some real response. I guess it might be possibly if disease mutates or if death rates increase due to high numbers of infected and services being unable to look after them. That would explain why so few early infected have died (so far). Suppose time will tell.

CinemaGuy45

Mic 1972 wrote: »

death rate = total death / (total death + recover)
you can't include to the calculation the "ongoing" people as we dont know if they are going to die or recover
So, the correct death rate so far is 20%

Be quiet will you nobody wants your common sense.

All we want is everybody is doomed or sure it will be all grand.:D:P


On a serious note 20% death rate sounds bloody nasty and the UK has 8 or 9 confirmed cases now it is on our doorstep.:(

Drumpot

Mic 1972 wrote: »

That's far from inaccurate. The data is pulled from the daily update on Death, Recoveries and total infected. The stat was pulled today

But it’s clearly not accurate, it doesn’t have all available information and as I said, China is an unreliable source. If that virus had a 20% kill rate the whole world would be shut down.

Stark

Takes longer to declare someone "recovered" than "dead" so the recovery rate is rising more slowly than the death rate. If you look at deaths vs confirmed cases, it's around 2%.

Drumpot

Stark wrote: »

Takes longer to declare someone "recovered" than "dead" so the recovery rate is rising more slowly than the death rate. If you look at deaths vs confirmed cases, it's around 2%.

Wouldn’t that suggest that the death rate will end up below 2% over time?

Seems to me like we are going to Have to wait a few weeks or months before we start getting an accurate picture of true mortality rates on this illness.

CinemaGuy45

Stark wrote: »

Takes longer to declare someone "recovered" than "dead" so the recovery rate is rising more slowly than the death rate. If you look at deaths vs confirmed cases, it's around 2%.

To be honest I think it is way above 2% the Chinese Government is not known for its openness and honesty.

Nor is ours for that matter.

wakka12

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Be quiet will you nobody wants your common sense.

All we want is everybody is doomed or sure it will be all grand.:D:P


On a serious note 20% death rate sounds bloody nasty and the UK has 8 or 9 confirmed cases now it is on our doorstep.:(

Its just not 20% though. If there were 40,000 cases of a 20% mortality rate virus going around and 8 cases in UK now, dont think youd be going to work today, or any of us, normal life worldwide would stop

tuxy

Look at how many people have a mild version compared to how many are critical.
Unless this is unlike any other virus that we have ever encountered the majority of the people will be on their way to recovery.

The people that die often do so within 10 days of being diagnosed, the people that will recover will take 3 - 4 weeks.
The recovery numbers are lagging way behind the death numbers.

This virus is barely even 2 months old yet.

Mic 1972

wakka12 wrote: »

But it is never actually calculated that way because death and recovery take different amounts of time. Of course the best wya to assess it is to take a large sample of early infections and calculate the outcome of all of them. I'm sure that is how the figure of around 2% has been arrived at

you are correct about analisying a large sample, that is the correct way to calculate the death rate. The sample at the moment is still small. There are about 4500 people who either died or recovered and the break down is 1 in 5

the 2% however was calculated as below, and that's a useless stat unfortunately
Total death / Total infected = 2%

givyjoe

tuxy wrote: »

Look at how many people have a mild version compared to how many are critical.
Unless this is unlike any other virus that we have ever encountered the majority of the people will be on their way to recovery.

The people that die often do so within 10 days of being diagnosed, the people that will recover will take 3 - 4 weeks.
The recovery numbers are lagging way behind the death numbers.

This virus is note even 1 month old yet.

It's over 2 months since the outbreak started. The wide scale tracking is lagging behind though.

tuxy

givyjoe wrote: »

It's over 2 months since the outbreak started. The wide scale tracking is lagging behind though.

Yes edited, that was a mistake but I think the point still holds.

wakka12

tuxy wrote: »

Look at how many people have a mild version compared to how many are critical.
Unless this is unlike any other virus that we have ever encountered the majority of the people will be on their way to recovery.

The people that die often do so within 10 days of being diagnosed, the people that will recover will take 3 - 4 weeks.
The recovery numbers are lagging way behind the death numbers.

This virus is barely even 2 months old yet.

It was never in question whether 'we will all survive', it is how does worldwide health infrastructure potentially deal with a large percentage of it's population being hospitalised simultaneously in a pandemic scenario. The answer is not good, as you see in Wuhan. The scenario is unlike anything in encountered for a long time, hence the reactions worldwide from governements. There are way more recovered than seriously ill but up to 15% of patients experiencing severely compromised health is extremely significant

Drumpot

Mic 1972 wrote: »

you are correct about analisying a large sample, that is the correct way to calculate the death rate. The sample at the moment is still small. There are about 4500 people who either died or recovered and the break down is 1 in 5

the 2% however was calculated as below, and that's a useless stat unfortunately
Total death / Total infected = 2%

You need to also factor in information , how accurate is China’s information?

Then there is also a question of how much does governmental response , environment (weather, smog etc) and cultural (families/community’s closer) differences affect transmission. And of course medical access, how has this effected survival rates in China?

I really think every information discussed and quoted should have massive caveats. As I said, I think when we see how this affects people in comparable countries , only then can we be confident on these numbers. Mass numbers being infected is possibly a bigger issue then catching the virus itself.