new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Mic 1972

this is the link where I get the data, it's updated a couple of times per day
(UK new cases are still not showing)



https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Mic 1972

Drumpot wrote: »

You need to also factor in information , how accurate is China’s information?

Then there is also a question of how much does governmental response , environment (weather, smog etc) and cultural (families/community’s closer) differences affect transmission. And of course medical access, how has this effected survival rates in China?

I really think every information discussed and quoted should have massive caveats. As I said, I think when we see how this affects people in comparable countries , only then can we be confident on these numbers.

As of now we have data to know that the death rate is nowhere near 2%

Unearthly

I see the people on the cruise ship will be provided a full refund + a credit to take another cruise ship in the next 12 months :pac:

CinemaGuy45

OK 20% sounds extreme however 2% seems to be downplaying things.

I don't know the real death rate but those videos coming out of China look like they come straight out of a zombie movie.

I have seen loads of people with this collapse the flu does not do this.

Time will tell.

marvin80

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

I don't know the real death rate but those videos coming out of China look like they come straight out of a zombie movie.

Please read this:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51429400

tuxy

Unearthly wrote: »

I see the people on the cruise ship will be provided a full refund + a credit to take another cruise ship in the next 12 months :pac:

The British couple on channel 4 had already said they plan to take the other cruises they have booked so they will be happy.

Drumpot

Mic 1972 wrote: »

As of now we have data to know that the death rate is nowhere near 2%

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

OK 20% sounds extreme however 2% seems to be downplaying things.

I don't know the real death rate but those videos coming out of China look like they come straight out of a zombie movie.

I have seen loads of people with this collapse the flu does not do this.

Time will tell.

The only accurate statement is that we really don’t know for sure.

I think the pictures of panic and society breaking down is exactly what I would expect. It’s not clear how much is being communicated to it’s population.

I rememeber when sept 11 happened and at the time everybody was panicking. Was it a new world war? Was it China? Wtf was going on.... The lack of information was leading to all sorts of crazy stuff.

We aren’t programmed to deal with these sort of incidents. Most of us go along thinking we’ve got everything sorted. Feel sick, goto doctor or hospital. Need money, work and get loans. Need food, goto shops. Nature is an after thought if even an thought at all. How we abuse our environment is a testament to that.,

When something unplanned happens (like a virus) I would suggest panic is one of our greatest threats. People turning on each other and not trusting one another. What’s probably upsetting about these Chinese pictures and stories is that unlike war torn countries, this could very well happen to us if we don’t manage it correctly. That’s what frightening, more so then the virus itself (at this early stage)

Scrabbles38

Mic 1972 wrote: »

you are correct about analisying a large sample, that is the correct way to calculate the death rate. The sample at the moment is still small. There are about 4500 people who either died or recovered and the break down is 1 in 5

the 2% however was calculated as below, and that's a useless stat unfortunately
Total death / Total infected = 2%

If it is 20% like you say than we should be seeing this in cases outside of China by now... it my not be 2% but it’s not 20%.. it might even be lower

fritzelly

If this turns out positive along with the doctors surgery the UK could be in serious trouble

https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/18224218.st-marys-independent-school-southampton-closed-evacuated-coronavirus-fears/?Ref=fbpg

CinemaGuy45

marvin80 wrote: »

Please read this:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51429400

I did read it and I do agree there is a lot of bull going around, however,.


We cannot trust China to be honest.

Even if death rates are about 2% this thing looks nasty more than a flu.

Mic 1972

Personally i only trust the actual data that is published, anyone can make up a % rate but i like to know how that was calculated before i take it seriously. One thing is panic, another thing is being accurate

wakka12

Drumpot wrote: »

Wouldn’t that suggest that the death rate will end up below 2% over time?

Seems to me like we are going to Have to wait a few weeks or months before we start getting an accurate picture of true mortality rates on this illness.

Not really, unless there are a lot of unrecorded cases . Even if 100% of the remaining confirmed cases recovered the mortality rate would stay at 2.2%

wakka12

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

If it is 20% like you say than we should be seeing this in cases outside of China by now... it my not be 2% but it’s not 20%.. it might even be lower

But then there are real life variables that affect that mortality rate. In chinese cities where there a lot of cases, the mortality rate is 4-5% due to hospitals being overwhelmed. Patients outside China are tiny in number, and receieve adequate care

SeaBreezes

wakka12 wrote: »

Its just not 20% though. If there were 40,000 cases of a 20% mortality rate virus going around and 8 cases in UK now, dont think youd be going to work today, or any of us, normal life worldwide would stop

Life DID stop in Many cities in China....

And mic is right, the actual time lag from infection to death or recovery is min 3 weeks. SARS when it was happening had a death rate of 2% it was only after, when actual numbers were gathered the 10% figure was realised.

That said there may be many many mild cases not presenting at hospital at all.
It's the cases that get to hospital (and are tested) have a 20% fatality rate.

So, watching the cases in Singapore, Germany and UK with interest as we will get more accurate idea of stats. And hoping it is just a flu for all concerned

Mic 1972

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

If it is 20% like you say than we should be seeing this in cases outside of China by now... it my not be 2% but it’s not 20%.. it might even be lower

Ok, for the 2% to become even lower the assumption to make is for more people to get infected and no one out of the total currently infected are going to die. That's the most unrealistic scenario


For the 20% to become a more accurate stat we would need to analyses a specific sample of people who all got infected at the same time and have now either died or survived, This % may or may not be lower than 20%

ceadaoin.

Today a student from china is spending 2 weeks in my daughters class. The school have implemented a policy that anyone who has been in China within the past 2 weeks can not come to school. Am I being a dick if I double check that this is actually the case with this child? I mean, I know the chances that this one person from a population of a billion is infected but I cant help but worry.

Unearthly

tuxy wrote: »

The British couple on channel 4 had already said they plan to take the other cruises they have booked so they will be happy.

Fair play but to me it would be like John McClane being offered a free tour of a different Nakatomi plaza

saabsaab

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Today a student from china is spending 2 weeks in my daughters class. The school have implemented a policy that anyone who has been in China within the past 2 weeks can not come to school. Am I being a dick if I double check that this is actually the case with this child? I mean, I know the chances that this one person from a population of a billion is infected but I cant help but worry.

You could ask the school just to have peace of mind.

CinemaGuy45

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Today a student from china is spending 2 weeks in my daughters class. The school have implemented a policy that anyone who has been in China within the past 2 weeks can not come to school. Am I being a dick if I double check that this is actually the case with this child? I mean, I know the chances that this one person from a population of a billion is infected but I cant help but worry.

It depends do you care more about your daughter and your family or a load of libtards calling you a racist?

Drumpot

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Today a student from china is spending 2 weeks in my daughters class. The school have implemented a policy that anyone who has been in China within the past 2 weeks can not come to school. Am I being a dick if I double check that this is actually the case with this child? I mean, I know the chances that this one person from a population of a billion is infected but I cant help but worry.

What? They’ve allowed a student from China to come and stay in the class? Is this a student that just flew over in the last few days or have they been hear for weeks? Unless there is a reasonable explanation it Seems very irresponsible considering our concerns regarding China’s initial response (protect mother land reputation) and most likely innacurate information on the amount infected. Also the fact it may take up to 2 weeks to show symptoms.

Tacitus Kilgore

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

It depends do you care more about your daughter and your family or a load of libtards calling you a racist?

I'd be more inclined to quarantine myself away from anyone in Ireland who uses the word libtard.

saabsaab

Unearthly wrote: »

Fair play but to me it would be like John McClane being offered a free tour of a different Nakatomi plaza

'You can walk out of here or be carried out.' Hans Gruber

CinemaGuy45

Drumpot wrote: »

What? They’ve allowed a student from China to come and stay in the class? Is this a student that just flew over in the last few days or have they been hear for weeks? Unless there is a reasonable explanation it Seems very irresponsible considering our concerns regarding China’s initial response (protect mother land reputation) and most likely innacurate information on the amount infected. Also the fact it may take up to 2 weeks to show symptoms.

:D:D:D

marvin80

fritzelly wrote: »

If this turns out positive along with the doctors surgery the UK could be in serious trouble

https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/18224218.st-marys-independent-school-southampton-closed-evacuated-coronavirus-fears/?Ref=fbpg

Also, reported today that cases in the UK have DOUBLED from 4 to 8

tuxy

Unearthly wrote: »

Fair play but to me it would be like John McClane being offered a free tour of a different Nakatomi plaza

The Irish land quarantined in the Wirral is really chilled too, the only thing he is anxious about is that he may not be able to return to China as soon as he would like to.
While another person at the same quarantine centre has just made everything much more strict and uncomfortable by panicking and threatening to escape

Drumpot

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

It depends do you care more about your daughter and your family or a load of libtards calling you a racist?

Agreed.

This is not “I don’t like Chinese people because I don’t like Chinese people”. This isn’t a racist issue, this is just common sense, a virus doesn’t care about borders. I don’t want to get the virus and I don’t want to see lazy attitudes more focused on not appearing to be racist as a reason why the virus spreads.

I hope there is some background to this students story that we just aren’t getting here.

Hector Savage

Shame on those here trying to say it's about racism - no it's not !
It's a stats / probability issue, if someone is just over from China I would have concerns - whether they are Chinese, French, Antarctic..... we have a Chinese guy working with us, and he was home for the Chinese new year, hes back a week now, but still has not been to the office, they told him to work from home for 2 weeks - and rightly so!!

Now if they had just said that to him based on him being Chinese and he hadn't been home for CNY ... then fair enough, you could have a point about racism.

4068ac1elhodqr

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Can an ultraviolet disinfection lamp kill the new coronavirus?
UV lamps should not be used to sterilize hands or other areas of skin as UV radiation can cause skin irritation.
[I guess UV does kill it though or at least is not known not to or they would have phrased this differently.]

The (5-10secs or so) use of UV-C may actually be very useful to kill surface viruses. Very unlikely to feel any skin irritation in that time, unless a vampire.
Many hand driers in bathrooms include a UV lamp for this reason. Some air filter sytems might use it (along with ozone) and small steralisation kits use UV bulbs.

Other cheap hacks for non-toxic/irritant cleaning methods include plain table salt & lemons for uneven surfaces such as chopping boards, and vinegar mixed with hotwater for floors.[/QUOTE]

CinemaGuy45

Drumpot wrote: »

Agreed.

This is not “I don’t like Chinese people because I don’t like Chinese people”. This isn’t a racist issue, this is just common sense, a virus doesn’t care about borders. I don’t want to get the virus and I don’t want to see lazy attitudes more focused on not appearing to be racist as a reason why the virus spreads.

I hope there is some background to this students story that we just aren’t getting here.

The thing started in China and anybody travelling from China would be at higher risk.
Also being stuck on a long flight if even one person is infected the way air is recycled on a plane good luck.

Look at that cruse ship and how quickly the numbers of infected are going up.

Steve F

saabsaab wrote: »

Unless it starts to die back soon i.e. in the next 2 months this is starting to look like the predicted 'big one' like 1918/19 flue pandemic. No good news on this really yet.

Well.....every so often something comes along to thin out the population. I'm not saying this is it but at over 7 billion the earth needs a breather maybe?

CinemaGuy45

Hector Savage wrote: »

Shame on those here trying to say it's about racism - no it's not !
It's a stats / probability issue, if someone is just over from China I would have concerns - whether they are Chinese, French, Antarctic..... we have a Chinese guy working with us, and he was home for the Chinese new year, hes back a week now, but still has not been to the office, they told him to work from home for 2 weeks - and rightly so!!

Now if they had just said that to him based on him being Chinese and he hadn't been home for CNY ... then fair enough, you could have a point about racism.

Nobody here is trying to say that I am pointing out the way things play out in this crazy society we live in.:)

ceadaoin.

Drumpot wrote: »

Agreed.

This is not “I don’t like Chinese people because I don’t like Chinese people”. This isn’t a racist issue, this is just common sense, a virus doesn’t care about borders. I don’t want to get the virus and I don’t want to see lazy attitudes more focused on not appearing to be racist as a reason why the virus spreads.

I hope there is some background to this students story that we just aren’t getting here.

Yeah it's not about race, they may not even be chinese but they live in China. The only reason I know is because my daughter told me, there has been no communication from the school at all. We are in the US where travel restrictions from China have been in place for a couple of weeks now anyway. So I'm hoping that it means that this family have arrived several weeks ago.

timmyntc

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

The (5-10secs or so) use of UV-C may actually be very useful to kill surface viruses. Very unlikely to feel any skin irritation in that time, unless a vampire.
Many hand driers in bathrooms include a UV lamp for this reason. Some air filter sytems might use it (along with ozone) and small steralisation kits use UV bulbs.

Other cheap hacks for non-toxic/irritant cleaning methods include plain table salt & lemons for uneven surfaces such as chopping boards, and vinegar mixed with hotwater for floors.

[/QUOTE]

The thing started in China and anybody travelling from China would be at higher risk.
Also being stuck on a long flight if even one person is infected the way air is recycled on a plane good luck.

Luck at that cruse ship and how quickly the numbers of infected are going up.

Begs the question, why don't airplanes filter the recycled air with UV bulbs? Surely sterilising the air shared by all in the plane is a good idea in general for prevention of illness (nCov aside)

tuxy

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

The (5-10secs or so) use of UV-C may actually be very useful to kill surface viruses. Very unlikely to feel any skin irritation in that time, unless a vampire.
Many hand driers in bathrooms include a UV lamp for this reason. Some air filter sytems might use it (along with ozone) and small steralisation kits use UV bulbs.

Is the ozone generated a health issue?
I'd also be reluctant to look at them close up with the naked eye.

Steve F

"China's ambassador to Britain described the newly identified virus as "the enemy of mankind" in an interview with the BBC yesterday, but added it "is controllable, is preventable, is curable".

I would add to that...if people heed the warnings yeah?

khalessi

For handwashing use the Ayliffe Technique,its what they teach med staff, does front and back of hands, thumbs, between fingers, repeat a couple of times.

CinemaGuy45

Steve F wrote: »

Well.....every so often something comes along to thin out the population. I'm not saying this is it but at over 7 billion the earth needs a breather maybe?

Be that change you want to see.:D

As in you first buddy.

4068ac1elhodqr

tuxy wrote: »

Begs the question, why don't airplanes filter the recycled air with UV bulbs? Surely sterilising the air shared by all in the plane is a good idea in general for prevention of illness (nCov aside)

Would have to ask an airplane air systems engineer. Likely they use a series of passive filters ranging in type including carbon filters. Guess expense would be a factor also, when blowing so much dynamic and variable pressurised air for extended periods of time it would need some sort of chamber to hold for upto 10secs and treat.

tuxy wrote: »

Is the ozone generated a health issue?
I'd also be reluctant to look at them close up with the naked eye.

Don't frequent them, but are widely used in chippers to kill flies, and keep surfaces clean. Anyone eating fast food would have more to worry about than a 10w UV lamp up on the roof.

Ozone is good for steralisation, but not in confined spaces. A UV lamp system would be useful for doorway/entry areas where there is natural air movement anyway. Again less of a health concern, than those large trucks spraying out tonnes of gas across Chinese streets.

tuxy

timmyntc wrote: »

Begs the question, why don't airplanes filter the recycled air with UV bulbs? Surely sterilising the air shared by all in the plane is a good idea in general for prevention of illness (nCov aside)

Wouldn't that be bulky and heavy.
They have to cool the air from the extreme temperate it enters at from the engine to make it safe to breath. Using massive amounts of UV light to cool all that air would heat the air needing a much lager air con system on top of the large UV system.

Steve F

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Be that change you want to see.:D

As in you first buddy.

But...but...but I'm too young to die...I'm "only" 56

Mr.Wemmick

khalessi wrote: »

For handwashing use the Ayliffe Technique,its what they teach med staff, does front and back of hands, thumbs, between fingers, repeat a couple of times.

People often forget to wash their thumbs properly. It is usually where the germs are found.

tuxy

I also forgot about all the ozone created by that process, could that kill passengers? It would at least make many very ill

I know,miles off topic(sorry)

Panrich

tuxy wrote: »

I also forgot about all the ozone created by that process, could that kill passengers? It would at least make many very ill

I know,miles off topic(sorry)

At least they’d be virus free though.

tuxy

Panrich wrote: »

At least they’d be virus free though.

I shouldn't be giving the CPC ideas.

notobtuse

A student attending a college just down the road from where I work has been taken to a hospital with suspicions of coronavirus, due to symptoms exhibited, after she returned from a trip to China. Students and people here are not worried even though she might have interacted with hundreds of people at the large local grocery store the students frequent. The government is doing a good propaganda job of making sure the attitude is the virus is not something to worry about.

4068ac1elhodqr

You'd be suspicious of the WHO, saying not to avail of (5-10secs) UV light in hand dryers
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters
'Skin irritation' from a very quick blast of low wattage UV light?

Most theories and studies show that even low-power (LED) UV-C may be 'useful' in lowering the presence of any virus.

Even after someone discovered salt infused N95's will kill the virus on contact,
they'd still have to wait 18mths for patent processing before actual sales and release.

Guessing BGates(vax) has too much money already invested for any other (cheap or free) non-trademarked 'novel' solution(s).
Get ready for the jab(s) at end of the year, beware of the side-effects.

ThePopehimself

notobtuse wrote: »

A student attending a college just down the road from where I work has been taken to a hospital with suspicions of coronavirus, due to symptoms exhibited, after she returned from a trip to China. Students and people here are not worried even though she might have interacted with hundreds of people at the large local grocery store the students frequent. The government is doing a good propaganda job of making sure the attitude is the virus is not something to worry about.

What county are you in, if it's okay to ask? If you are not comfortable answering, that's okay.

notobtuse

ThePopehimself wrote: »

What county are you in, if it's okay to ask? If you are not comfortable answering, that's okay.

On the east coast of USA. Right on the border of New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

ThePopehimself

notobtuse wrote: »

On the east coast of USA. Right on the border of New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Oh! I had just assumed you were in Ireland, but thank you for the reply.

I hope the student gets a negative test result.

Scrabbles38

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Ok, for the 2% to become even lower the assumption to make is for more people to get infected and no one out of the total currently infected are going to die. That's the most unrealistic scenario


For the 20% to become a more accurate stat we would need to analyses a specific sample of people who all got infected at the same time and have now either died or survived, This % may or may not be lower than 20%

We don’t know how many people are at home in China with mild symptoms that won’t get tested... or have been tested and are not in hospital... China’s figures are **** ... but that’s how it could be lower...

Only be watching what happens outside China will we know... and at the moment it’s not 20% .