new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

bilston

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Yesterday’s death rate was 2.25%, today is 2.37%.

Doesn’t sound as if this is levelling off.

500 fewer confirmed cases today in Hubei Province though. Although I wonder if the range of 2000-2500 is just the maximum number that can be confirmed everyday due to restrictions on testing facilities.

Then again if there are significantly more cases than the 43,000 that have been confirmed then presumably the mortality rate is a lot lower than 2.4%

cameramonkey

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Yesterday’s death rate was 2.25%, today is 2.37%.

Doesn’t sound as if this is levelling off.

If everyone is in lock down for the last few week then I suppose the over all infection rate should start to come down fairly soon. The spread should be limited and the number testing positive should start reducing. Those who have the virus already may still be going through the critical stages when many develop pneumonia so the numbers being very ill and dying may not drop off so quickly. Dr John says this critical stage is reached at about 9 or 10 days. But as less enter the infection pipeline at the other end then these more critically sick people numbers may start to drop off maybe 10 or 15 days later. We shall see. The number of new infections is more important as a guide to see how the outbreak is progressing or not.

hmmm

cloudatlas wrote: »

I'm wondering what will close my work first snow or the coronavirus or both? How many times should you use one of those masks. For example the 3m ones?

Once only, so unless you have an infinite supply probably best to leave them for health workers or if you are coughing.

The problem (apparently) is that once you use them outside they become potentially contaminated, so when you take them off you are touching the contaminated mask, and the last thing you want to do is put it back on. For many people also a proper well-fitting mask is uncomfortable, so they end up touching their face more than they would otherwise.

laurah591

bilston wrote: »

500 fewer confirmed cases today in Hubei Province though. Although I wonder if the range of 2000-2500 is just the maximum number that can be confirmed everyday due to restrictions on testing facilities.

Then again if there are significantly more cases than the 43,000 that have been confirmed then presumably the mortality rate is a lot lower than 2.4%

Suspected cases also seem to be lower compared to yesterday 23k instead of 28k... maybe is tapering off...still seems like its got some way to run given the lenght of time from when symptoms appear to case resolution (recovery or otherwise)...

Now that extended New Year has ended... have the major cities gone back to work or are they under quarantine... this is surely going to have significant impact on global supply chains with ripple effects everywhere.

Unreg0909

Is it correct that because Dublin airport has no direct flights to China, that no one travelling into Ireland is being screened etc at the airport? How are they going to be able to trace/track this then

laurah591

Unreg0909 wrote: »

Is it correct that because Dublin airport has no direct flights to China, that no one travelling into Ireland is being screened etc at the airport? How are they going to be able to trace/track this then

Asking people to self declare ..... monkey covers eyes .... and not turn up at A&E or GPs waiting room :eek::eek::eek:

lolanacho

A school in Southampton has been closed after students were put in isolation over coronavirus fears.

St Mary’s Independent School in Bitterne Park is on lockdown, and pupils have been evacuated, according to the Bournemouth Echo.

Some of the children at the school were reportedly struck down with symptoms similar to those of the virus, and put in isolation after being assessed by medical professionals at Southampton General Hospital.

St Mary’s, which is in contact with Public Health England, will remain closed for deep cleaning.


The Echo reported a statement sent to parents from headteacher Claire Charlemagne said:

“I am sorry to inform you that a family with children at the prep and senior departments who have recently travelled to the region affected by coronavirus have developed symptoms similar to those presenting with the coronavirus, and having been checked by medical professionals at Southampton General Hospital have been placed in isolation.”

fritzelly

bilston wrote: »

500 fewer confirmed cases today in Hubei Province though. Although I wonder if the range of 2000-2500 is just the maximum number that can be confirmed everyday due to restrictions on testing facilities.

Then again if there are significantly more cases than the 43,000 that have been confirmed then presumably the mortality rate is a lot lower than 2.4%

There's less confirmed because unless you show symptoms you are not classed as confirmed anymore
This now makes a mockery of the suspected figure - what is the point unless they show symptoms
If the numbers were not fudged before they are now totally fudged

s7ryf3925pivug

hmmm wrote: »

Once only, so unless you have an infinite supply probably best to leave them for health workers or if you are coughing.

The problem (apparently) is that once you use them outside they become potentially contaminated, so when you take them off you are touching the contaminated mask, and the last thing you want to do is put it back on. For many people also a proper well-fitting mask is uncomfortable, so they end up touching their face more than they would otherwise.

Yeah there's a guide on WHO on how to use them. You're not supposed to touch the outside at all; remove it from the back.

What about sterilizing them with UV, in a pinch?

fritzelly

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

What about sterilizing them with UV, in a pinch?

Wouldn't matter as they would become clogged with dirt and other particulates

cnocbui

hmmm wrote: »

Once only, so unless you have an infinite supply probably best to leave them for health workers or if you are coughing.

The problem (apparently) is that once you use them outside they become potentially contaminated, so when you take them off you are touching the contaminated mask, and the last thing you want to do is put it back on. For many people also a proper well-fitting mask is uncomfortable, so they end up touching their face more than they would otherwise.

If 60+% ethanol and 4+% Hydrogen peroxide will disinfect hands, I would have thought you could use those to disinfect a mask, in a pinch.

Call Me Jimmy

fritzelly wrote: »

There's less confirmed because unless you show symptoms you are not classed as confirmed anymore
This now makes a mockery of the suspected figure - what is the point unless they show symptoms
If the numbers were not fudged before they are now totally fudged

Tip of the iceberg!

PhantomHat

fritzelly wrote: »

Wouldn't matter as they would become clogged with dirt and other particulates

Could you microwave?

josip

PhantomHat wrote: »

Could you microwave?

Not the ones with integrated metal nose clips

fritzelly

PhantomHat wrote: »

Could you microwave?

Would make the fibres expand - probably not ideal

s7ryf3925pivug

fritzelly wrote: »

Wouldn't matter as they would become clogged with dirt and other particulates

I've used them for DIY stuff that involves dust. They make a big difference if they fit right. The difference between a cough and phlegm and not. Reuse them a couple of times in that context and still work well. Can be hard to get ones that fit right though.

I have a couple of jobs I cant put off that will need a mask actually.

fritzelly

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

I've used them for DIY stuff that involves dust. They make a big difference if they fit right. The difference between a cough and phlegm and not. Reuse them a couple of times in that context and still work well. Can be hard to get ones that fit right though.

I have a couple of jobs I cant put off that will need a mask actually.

The dust ones are fine for things like that - not like you're gonna die if a bit gets thru
Some of the 3M ones I think are good for 2 weeks?

Seeing people walk around with surgical masks is hilarious - do they not know air comes in from the sides as well?

fritzelly

If you were following this guy

https://cpj.org/2020/02/chinese-video-journalist-chen-qiushi-who-covered-c.php

saabsaab

Some were saying that the mask would be more effective when coated with a strong saline solution as salt will kill the virus.

s7ryf3925pivug

saabsaab wrote: »

Some were saying that the mask would be more effective when coated with a strong saline solution as salt will kill the virus.

There is a new type of mask that is not on the market yet. It uses salt crystals that kill the virus instead of filtering it. I think it is probably very different to just putting salt water on a normal filtering mask.

s7ryf3925pivug

fritzelly wrote: »

The dust ones are fine for things like that - not like you're gonna die if a bit gets thru
Some of the 3M ones I think are good for 2 weeks?

Seeing people walk around with surgical masks is hilarious - do they not know air comes in from the sides as well?

Surgical masks are more to contain your own breath than filter what you inhale. If you are sick wearing one should help you avoid infecting people.

fritzelly

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Surgical masks are more to contain your own breath than filter what you inhale. If you are sick wearing one should help you avoid infecting people.

Yeah that was my point - they are pointless unless you are sick to stop infecting others. All the images coming out of China are showing the standard mask bar the odd person

lolanacho

fritzelly wrote: »

If you were following this guy

https://cpj.org/2020/02/chinese-video-journalist-chen-qiushi-who-covered-c.php

It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s found dead “by Coronavirus” and had to be cremated so no chance of an autopsy.

Akrasia

fritzelly wrote: »

The dust ones are fine for things like that - not like you're gonna die if a bit gets thru
Some of the 3M ones I think are good for 2 weeks?

Seeing people walk around with surgical masks is hilarious - do they not know air comes in from the sides as well?

It’s not actually hilarious because
A
it might not be perfect but it helps, and
B
it’s not funny that people are scared and clutching at straws... think about that phrase btw

fritzelly

Akrasia wrote: »

It’s not actually hilarious because
A
it might not be perfect but it helps, and
B
it’s not funny that people are scared and clutching at straws... think about that phrase btw

Hilarious is the wrong word - ludicrous may be better

Anyway another 5 deaths outside the epicenter in China

s7ryf3925pivug

Are you seeing people wearing them in Ireland?
You'd know that they have to wear them in public in China so I think you're talking about somewhere else?

cloudatlas

The bit that bothers me is supply lines getting cut off meaning the holiday was extended. If this becomes a pandemic what kind of supply line will uk and Ireland have?

cloudatlas

If you were an employee in a supermarket would you like to continue to work with the footfall in the door?

BanditLuke

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0211/1114493-coronavirus/

Situation is grave.

khalessi

My biggest fear is not being able to.stop kids getting it.

tuxy

khalessi wrote: »

My biggest fear is not being able to.stop kids getting it.

If initial reports are correct children's bodies respond far better the virus.

Hector Savage

We're f*cked

Hector Savage

According to this - https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

There is no cases in Africa yet, but for sure this is wrong, I can't imagine they will be well equipped to deal with it ...

GooglePlus

Hector Savage wrote: »

According to this - https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

There is no cases in Africa yet, but for sure this is wrong, I can't imagine they will be well equipped to deal with it ...

It's definitely in countries within Africa.

China has huge interests in Africa and so there is a lot of back and forth travel.

Hector Savage

tuxy wrote: »

If initial reports are correct children's bodies respond far better the virus.

This is good to hear, it's the main thing that worries me is my kids getting it, they don't have a clue at school how to protect themselves, I'm not too worried about myself....

VinLieger

cloudatlas wrote: »

The bit that bothers me is supply lines getting cut off meaning the holiday was extended. If this becomes a pandemic what kind of supply line will uk and Ireland have?

Ireland is rated as being one of the most food secure nations in the world, we produce 3 to 4 times more food than we need so we can get by if we need to, the UK not so much.

odyssey06

VinLieger wrote: »

Ireland is rated as being one of the most food secure nations in the world, we produce 3 to 4 times more food than we need so we can get by if we need to, the UK not so much.

Let's hope suppliers and supermarkets have stockpiles of packaging leftover from no deal Brexit planning though as getting the stuff onto shelves could be an issue...

marvin80

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

It seems people are panicking about people panicking without evidence. It's a discussion thread, posting stuff (even some of the bat-**** crazy stuff that I'm not interested in) doesn't equate to panicking. I think we're all roughly of similar intelligence and can use our noggins.

Does the below equate to panicking or is it more hysteria?

BanditLuke wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0211/1114493-coronavirus/

Situation is grave.

Hector Savage wrote: »

We're f*cked

Hector Savage

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population

60% of Global Pop. could be infected ? ! never expected such alarmist headlines from the Guardian...

RebelButtMunch

What's the craic with this 'super spreader'? For all we know the 4 of them in the chalet were kissing the face off each other or playing drinking games from the one glass etc.

Hector Savage

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

What's the craic with this 'super spreader'? For all we know the 4 of them in the chalet were kissing the face off each other or playing drinking games from the one glass etc.

Seems some people shed a lot of the virus, we don't even know what % of people will be superspreaders, we have to assume everyone is .... very worrying, I am thinking of getting haz mat suits for myself and the family ..

tabby aspreme

Hyundai and Fiat Chrysler, reducing car production due to difficulty in getting parts from China

givyjoe

VinLieger wrote: »

Ireland is rated as being one of the most food secure nations in the world, we produce 3 to 4 times more food than we need so we can get by if we need to, the UK not so much.

Thats the key word though, production will be shut down if we get a repeat of the China situation. Even if food production still takes place, what about the rest of the supply chain? You reckon staff in Lidl and Aldi etc will still be coming into work?

Hector Savage

tabby aspreme wrote: »

Hyundai and Fiat Chrysler, reducing car production due to difficulty in getting parts from China

Well thats a good thing, f*cking cars are a disgrace to the world ..

Wibbs

marvin80 wrote: »

Does the below equate to panicking or is it more hysteria?

Problem IMHO is M, we still don't know. Earlier in the thread I referenced a reddit thread where people looked into the maths of the official Chinese figures and found a extremely suspicious regularity to their reported numbers. Essentially they look made up to a mathematical formula.

Me. Earlier. wrote:

Funny enough some are wondering why China's official figures are just a tad too clean... https://twitter.com/Charlie_Box/status/1226203341086175233

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ez13dv/oc_quadratic_coronavirus_epidemic_growth_model

As one chap notes:

Reddit guy wrote:

If I'm right, this near perfect "Chinese Propaganda" quadratic model will provide the world press and the WHO with the following numbers over the next few days:
05/02/2020 23435 cases 489 fatalities
06/02/2020 26885 cases 561 fatalities
07/02/2020 30576 cases 639 fatalities
08/02/2020 34506 cases 721 fatalities
09/02/2020 38675 cases 808 fatalities
10/02/2020 43084 cases 900 fatalities
11/02/2020 47733 cases 997 fatalities
Quite sad, considering all the commendations for transparency bestowed upon China by the WHO!

With each day his predictions are holding based on the Chinese "statistics". They're not even bothering to add some variability.

And if you look at the doctor's video above where he references the official figures for yesterday, sure enough on the 10/2/20 lo and behold they show 909 deaths. What are the odds that today's figures will be 1000....

Whatever about the above, this is the scary part. We simply can't trust the Chinese authorities. Openness and transparency is not in their philosophical and cultural tool kit. Fudging figures, saving their arse on a local and party level and enforced social compliance is.

This goes double if this turns out to be China's "Chernobyl". Look how the Soviets initially dealt with that disaster and how long it took for them to admit how truly bloody awful a disaster it was(and remains). Even today their "official" figures for causalities is tiny and at odds with every outside and even internal figures. And this could well be China's "Chernobyl", the event that rocks their very foundation. Only this could be much much worse for the wider world than even that disaster.

Hector Savage

Wibbs wrote: »

Problem IMHO is M, we still don't know. Earlier in the thread I referenced a reddit thread where people looked into the maths of the official Chinese figures and found a extremely suspicious regularity to their reported numbers. Essentially they look made up to a mathematical formula.



And if you look at the doctor's video above where he references the official figures for yesterday, sure enough on the 10/2/20 lo and behold they show 909 deaths. What are the odds that today's figures will be 1000....

Whatever about the above, this is the scary part. We simply can't trust the Chinese authorities. Openness and transparency is not in their philosophical and cultural tool kit. Fudging figures, saving their arse on a local and party level and enforced social compliance is.

This goes double if this turns out to be China's "Chernobyl". Look how the Soviets initially dealt with that disaster and how long it took for them to admit how truly bloody awful a disaster it was(and remains). Even today their "official" figures for causalities is tiny and at odds with every outside and even internal figures. And this could well be China's "Chernobyl", the event that rocks their very foundation. Only this could be much much worse for the wider world than even that disaster.

OK now I'm panicking, when Wibbs is worried you know sh*ts getting real!!

Wibbs

Wibbs wrote: »

And if you look at the doctor's video above where he references the official figures for yesterday, sure enough on the 10/2/20 lo and behold they show 909 deaths. What are the odds that today's figures will be 1000....

And lo and behold, from the Guardian current updates page "Coronavirus live updates: two senior Hubei officials sacked as deaths pass 1,000 – latest news"
Coincidence or Chinese gov ballsology? Hmmmm, I know which I'd lay down my hard earned as a bet....

Ann22

Hector Savage wrote: »

Seems some people shed a lot of the virus, we don't even know what % of people will be superspreaders, we have to assume everyone is .... very worrying, I am thinking of getting haz mat suits for myself and the family ..

Perhaps it's someone who coughs and sneezes rings around him without covering his nose and mouth

Wibbs

From that above Reddit thread, what the mathematical model suggests China's figures will be and what figures they release over the next week...

05/02/2020 24553 (23435) cases 492 (489) fatalities

06/02/2020 28278 (26885) cases 565 (561) fatalities

07/02/2020 31349 (30576) cases 638 (639) fatalities

08/02/2020 34876 (34506) cases 724 (721) fatalities

09/02/2020 37552 (38675) cases 813 (808) fatalities

10/02/2020 40553 (43084) cases 910 (900) fatalities

11/02/2020 43099 (47733) cases 1018 (997) fatalities

12/02/2020 ? (52621) cases ? (1099) fatalities

13/02/2020 ? (57749) cases ? (1206) fatalities

14/02/2020 ? (63116) cases ? (1319) fatalities

15/02/2020 ? (68723) cases ? (1436) fatalities

16/02/2020 ? (74570) cases ? (1558) fatalities

17/02/2020 ? (80656) cases ? (1685) fatalities

18/02/2020 ? (86982) cases ? (1817) fatalities

19/02/2020 ? (93548) cases ? (1955) fatalities

20/02/2020 ? (100353) cases ? (2097) fatalities

I think it’s time the HSE got an ad campaign going with regards to hand washing and coughing into a tissue/inside part of your elbow.

They should have been doing it years ago tbh at the start of every winter season but gotta start sometime and now is that time.