new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

False alarm so have deleted post.

pc7

Unreg0909 wrote: »

deleted as per op request.

deleted as per op request

false alarm so I’ve deleted post.

laurah591

Unreg0909 wrote: »

We don’t know...we haven’t been given any information... I only know this from my daughter. I am hoping they self isolated

Just contact school principal and ask the question, it will at least raise your concern with the school. It wont hurt the child's education to be out for 2 weeks especially since next week is midterm.

MadYaker

I’m surprised there hasn’t been more cases in the uk, still only 4

drunkmonkey

MadYaker wrote: »

I’m surprised there hasn’t been more cases in the uk, still only 4

Give it 24 days

car_radio19834

MadYaker wrote: »

I’m surprised there hasn’t been more cases in the uk, still only 4

There's 8!

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1226808778454118407

Drumpot

Is it because of the a-symptom period (2 weeks) that we probably have such low numbers outside of China?

Also, if it is airborne as now reported, does that not mean it’s only a matter of when, as opposed to “if” , as to when we start seeing people with it here. I mean it seems like the “don’t panic” narrative is making people complacent and not really concerned. Is the time for action not now? Prevention is better then cure so maybe a bit of organised panic (that we can control) would be better then fire fighting when the inevitable happens?

I really don’t get what’s going on. This isn’t a tin foil hat conspiracy , There is a spreading virus and probably Zero Chance of us stopping the spread, why is Nobody taking this seriously? Isn’t this the time to start widespread education on it, warn people (even if it is scary), communicate plans to people. What am I missing?

ThePopehimself

The Guardian London UK
Health editor
Tue 11 Feb 2020 08.30 GMT

Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked'

MAIN POINTS

Interview with Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University

Professor Leung – one of the world’s experts on coronavirus epidemics, who played a major role in the Sars outbreak in 2002-03 – works closely with other leading scientists such as counterparts at Imperial College London and Oxford University.

En route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva.Professor Leung told The Guardian that most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to about 2.5 other people. That gave an “attack rate” of 60-80%.

* "The coronavirus epidemic could spread to about two-thirds of the world’s population if it cannot be controlled."

* "Even if the general fatality rate is as low as 1%," which Leung thinks is possible once milder cases are taken into account," the death toll would be massive."

* He will tell the WHO expert meeting today that the main issue is the scale of the growing worldwide epidemic and the second priority is to find out whether the drastic measures taken by China to prevent the spread have worked – because if so, other countries should think about adopting them."

* He has warned in a paper in the Lancet that outbreaks were likely to be “growing exponentially” in cities in China, lagging just one to two weeks behind Wuhan. Elsewhere, “independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable” because of the substantial movement of people who were infected but had not yet developed symptoms, and the absence of public health measures to stop the spread.

* Experts also need to know “Have these massive public health interventions, social distancing, and mobility restrictions worked in China?” he asked. “If so, how can we roll them out, or is it not possible?”

* If China’s lockdown has not worked, there is another unpalatable truth to face: that the coronavirus might not be possible to contain.

* For now, containment measures are essential.

* Leung said the period of time when people were infected but showed no symptoms remained a huge problem.

* Quarantine was necessary.If anyone within a quarantine camp or on a stricken cruise ship tested positive, the clock should be reset to 14 days more for all the others.

* Leung talked to the health minister and deputy prime minister of Thailand, and advised the setting up of quarantine camps, which the government has done.

* "Scientists still do not know for sure whether transmission is through droplets from coughs or possibly airborne particles.

*People needed to have faith and trust in their government while the uncertainties of the new outbreak were worked out by the scientific community."

***Avoid Fake news.

Read the Full interview below:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population

gozunda

Hector Savage wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population
60% of Global Pop. could be infected ? ! never expected such alarmist headlines from the Guardian...

Not saying the expert they mention is wrong however I would take all of that newspapers content with a large bucket of salt these days. It regularly comes out with ludicrous headlines and inaccurate reporting.

Dave0301

gozunda wrote: »

Not saying the expert they mention is wrong however I would take all of that newspapers content with a large bucket of salt these days. It regularly comes out with ludicrous headlines and inaccurate reporting.

I am not saying he is wrong but he is wrong :pac:

wakka12

Its really not alarmist though, ncov does look impossible to contain, and has a higher transmission rate than for example swine flu which infected 1 in 3 people worldwide in 2009. Long asymptomatic infectious incubation period, survives tropical weather, stays on surfaces for a long time, a pandemic is pretty much inevitable.

Drumpot

wakka12 wrote: »

Its really not alarmist though, ncov does look impossible to contain, and has a higher transmission rate than for example swine flu which infected 1 in 3 people worldwide in 2009.

Why do you think countries like Ireland are doing nothing to warn and prepare its population? I mean if it’s inevitable then our health system is gonna struggle badly when we hit peak numbers.

ThePopehimself

gozunda wrote: »

Not saying the expert they mention is wrong however I would take all of that newspapers content with a large bucket of salt these days. It regularly comes out with ludicrous headlines and inaccurate reporting.

No.

This is Professor Leung – one of the world’s experts on coronavirus epidemics.The chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University on his way to meet with the other world leading experts at a meeting convened by the World Health Organisation in Geneva.

It is an Interview which would be held to the Strictest standards that mark The Guardian.

josip

Interesting what he is saying about resetting the 14 clock on the cruise ship because I was wondering about that also.
It would make more sense to relocate them to a quarantine facility where they can be individually isolated or at least into smaller groups so that 3,000+ aren't affected each time a new case emerges.


It's probably not easy to find such a 3,000 bed facility, even in Japan.
Makes you realise just how massive these cruise ships are.

Tipperary animal lover

Heading to vietnam in a few weeks, have vietnamese friends over asking me to bring face masks(approved ones), anyway have checked pharmacies all over the place and everyone seems to be out of them and waiting for orders to come in but can't tell me when they'll get them, the one thing recurring when talking over the phone or in person to the staff at the pharmacies is that it was Chinese people coming in buying in bulk the masks, seemingly their shipping them back to China, anyway after two weeks of searching have found a few boxes that weren't over priced.

wakka12

Drumpot wrote: »

Why do you think countries like Ireland are doing nothing to warn and prepare its population? I mean if it’s inevitable then our health system is gonna struggle badly when we hit peak numbers.

Maybe they dont want to panic people. Maybe it is just felt to be inevitable, theres not a lot you can do to prepare . Look at China, life has stopped and the economy grinded to a halt for several weeks now and it didn't even stop the spread. I'm not worried about my own health but I'm worried about how my older relatives will get through this.

s7ryf3925pivug

Drumpot wrote: »

Is it because of the a-symptom period (2 weeks) that we probably have such low numbers outside of China?

Also, if it is airborne as now reported, does that not mean it’s only a matter of when, as opposed to “if” , as to when we start seeing people with it here. I mean it seems like the “don’t panic” narrative is making people complacent and not really concerned. Is the time for action not now? Prevention is better then cure so maybe a bit of organised panic (that we can control) would be better then fire fighting when the inevitable happens?

I really don’t get what’s going on. This isn’t a tin foil hat conspiracy , There is a spreading virus and probably Zero Chance of us stopping the spread, why is Nobody taking this seriously? Isn’t this the time to start widespread education on it, warn people (even if it is scary), communicate plans to people. What am I missing?

People would demand all sorts of things that would cost money. Investment in healthcare, border screening, enforced quarantine, restrictions on travel, work from home or time off... It's all about the money, people are secondary.

gozunda

ThePopehimself wrote: »

No.

This is Professor Leung – one of the world’s experts on coronavirus epidemics.The chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University on his way to meet with the other world leading experts at a meeting convened by the World Health Organisation in Geneva.It is an Interview which would be held to the Strictest standards that mark The Guardian.

Yes

As stated professor young fine. That newspaper not so. At one time I would have agreed - however the paper is now little better than some tabloids with sensationalist headlines and often poor standard of journalism. Notably the newspaper now recieves funding for paid opinion pieces. Anyway not going to drag the thread off on a discussion purely about that.

False alarm so I’ve deleted post.

Drumpot

wakka12 wrote: »

Maybe they dont want to panic people. Maybe it is just felt to be inevitable, theres not a lot you can do to prepare . Look at China, life has stopped and the economy grinded to a halt for several weeks now and it didn't even stop the spread. I'm not worried about my own health but I'm worried about how my older relatives will get through this.

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

People would demand all sorts of things that would cost money. Investment in healthcare, border screening, enforced quarantine, restrictions on travel, work from home or time off... It's all about the money, people are secondary.

Yeh, I sort of guessed that but it’s such a bad stance to take. It’s like playing Russian roulette when we know a strong weather front is coming in the hope it’s not as bad as it looks.

If it’s inevitable then there’s nothing to be lost by preparing the nation. I don’t get this “it will be grand” logic, it’s like there’s an ice berg dead ahead and we won’t steer the ship cause it might upset the passengers!

laurah591

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

What you going to do, unreg?


Edit: after clicking send on this post. The most probable answer to any query by a parent will be.....

GDPR!!!

Even if the answer is GDPR... the fact that the question is raised with the school.... will flag concern. The principal at least has a duty of care to discuss the matter with the child's parents. In addition i would expect other parents to also contact school.

Given the contagious nature of this one.... once in the schools will be very difficult to contain.

s7ryf3925pivug

gozunda wrote: »

Yes

As stated professor young fine. That newspaper not so. At one time I would have agreed - however the paper is now little better than some tabloids with sensationalist headlines and often poor standard of journalism. Notably the newspaper now recieves funding for paid opinion pieces. Anyway not going to drag the thread off on a discussion purely about that.

Paid content in The Guardian is clearly marked as such.

Opinion pieces are also clearly indicated. The linked article is neither paid content nor an opinion piece.

You disagree with ithe paper's position regarding vegetarianism and have stated they receive funding from a plant food group (or whatever the term is). You view the paper as pushing an agenda in that regard - which it does quite openly. It's normal for a paper to have political positions, and it does not undermine its quality of journalism. I would say that its stance on vegetarianism is of no relevance to the article.

Anyway you're right that we shouldn't drag the thread off topic. I just wanted to give context to your assertion that the paper is not reliable as a source of information. (I completely disagree.)

SeaBreezes

wakka12 wrote: »

Maybe they dont want to panic people. Maybe it is just felt to be inevitable, theres not a lot you can do to prepare . Look at China, life has stopped and the economy grinded to a halt for several weeks now and it didn't even stop the spread. I'm not worried about my own health but I'm worried about how my older relatives will get through this.

I think so too, you cant stop this its going to burn through us.
If you knew you were going to roll the dice like this, would you go to work?
Would you jump on a plane? Get on a bus?

Dont spook the cattle.. the economy above all. Fricking WHO should be disbanded. Useless organisation. They had ONE JOB... and choose not to 'panic people' and allow the spread. Too late now the genie is out of the box.

What worries me, is the actual stats.
The Chinese completely over-reacted for a 2.1% fatality rate..
You do not put 400 million people into forced quarantine, for a 2.1% fatality rate. The Chinese will never forgive the CCP for this.

We maybe lucky, the virus is mutating all the time, it may mutate into a gentler form. Fingers crossed.

Super spreader in UK names and has made a statement

https://news.sky.com/story/identity-of-man-linked-to-11-british-coronavirus-cases-revealed-11931336

In a statement from St Thomas' hospital in London, where he is in quarantine, Mr Walsh said: "I would like to thank the NHS for their help and care - whilst I have fully recovered, my thoughts are with others who have contracted coronavirus.

"As soon as I knew I had been exposed to a confirmed case of coronavirus I contacted my GP, NHS 111 and Public Health England.


"I was advised to attend an isolated room at hospital, despite showing no symptoms, and subsequently self-isolated at home as instructed.

"When the diagnosis was confirmed I was sent to an isolation unit in hospital, where I remain, and, as a precaution, my family was also asked to isolate themselves.

"I also thank friends, family and colleagues for their support during recent weeks and I ask the media to respect our privacy."

So he’s now Coronavirus free?

wakka12

CDC Director - ' Obviously in China they're in mitigation stages..they're really now beyond containment.'

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f1wuim/obviously_in_china_theyre_in_mitigation_stages/

tuxy

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Super spreader in UK names and has made a statement

https://news.sky.com/story/identity-of-man-linked-to-11-british-coronavirus-cases-revealed-11931336




So he’s now Coronavirus free?

Recovered and now symptom free.
He will probably be kept in quarantine for some time and tested again to be safe.

s7ryf3925pivug

wakka12 wrote: »

CDC Director - ' Obviously in China they're in mitigation stages..they're really now beyond containment.'

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f1wuim/obviously_in_china_theyre_in_mitigation_stages/

They are still attempting containment though. Mitigation as I understand it means directing resources to treating the most unwell as opposed to quarantining all the infected. At least that what they say they mean by it in Ireland.

tuxy

tuxy wrote: »

Recovered and now symptom free.
He will probably be kept in quarantine for some time and tested again to be safe.

But he never showed any symptoms according to himself. He contacted the NHS because he found out he was exposed to virus by someone else. So what exactly has he recovered from?

If the virus has now left his system, he’s a brilliant case study to have.

BanditLuke

I do wish people would stop using the word "panic". Pointing out what's going on and being prepared isn't panic. We are on the crust of something very very serious and we all should be rightfully worried given the state of our health service. It's not the virus that will kill in large numbers it's the fact we will be over run and not be able to help and treat patients thus resulting in deaths.

odyssey06

We shall fight them in the bathrooms.
We shall fight them at the deli counter.
We shall fight them on rush hour buses.
et certa et cetera

(I mean the virus not the Chinese!)

ThePopehimself

BanditLuke wrote: »

I do wish people would stop using the word "panic". Pointing out what's going on and being prepared isn't panic. We are on the crust of something very very serious and we all should be rightfully worried given the state of our health service. It's not the virus that will kill in large numbers it's the fact we will be over run and not be able to help and treat patients thus resulting in deaths.

Agreed.
We should be careful not to confuse sensible informed measures with what is too glibly being labelled as ‘Panic’. We tend to do that, we’re mortified to wear the reflective jacket until we realize the rest of the world is wearing one.

ohnonotgmail

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

But he never showed any symptoms according to himself. He contacted the NHS because he found out he was exposed to virus by someone else. So what exactly has he recovered from?

If the virus has now left his system, he’s a brilliant case study to have.

Maybe he is only a carrier. a modern day typhoid mary.

s7ryf3925pivug

I might get a funnel, tube, 5l bottle and a towel for my car - with a view to avoiding trips to public toilets in the event of an outbreak.

They should really change the flush mechanism of toilets to one that doesn't create a mist of poo particles. (Coronavirus outbreak or otherwise.)

Hector Savage

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

I might get a funnel, tube, 5l bottle and a towel for my car - with a view to avoiding trips to public toilets in the event of an outbreak.

They should really change the flush mechanism of toilets to one that doesn't create a mist of poo particles. (Coronavirus outbreak or otherwise.)

What good would that do ? most cases are spread by coughing/sneezing in public ...

Wibbs

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Maybe he is only a carrier. a modern day typhoid mary.

Maybe, but I'd like to understand the mechanism and hard science of this "super spreader" idea. To be such a case a person would be pumping out a much higher viral cloud than average. Which would also mean more of their cells have been hijacked by the virus and replicating same at a higher rate than average. So more of his cells would be compromised and dying or dead.

I can see how a bacterial "super spreader" can exist. In that case their bodies have I suppose declared a truce of sorts, at a level where they're not obviously sick, but the bacteria are still being produced and passed to others(Typhoid Mary a good example), but since a virus hijacks and usually kills or majorly disables the host cells I'm not seeing how in the case of viral infections?

So the obvious question remains; how would someone like that be asymptomatic yet produce more viral particles to infect others?

s7ryf3925pivug

Hector Savage wrote: »

What good would that do ? most cases are spread by coughing/sneezing in public ...

There's evidence that you can catch it by getting other people's poo in your mouth. When you flush a toilet with the lid up, aerosolized poo particles go into the air. So when you go into a public toilet you breathe in tiny amounts of public poo.

Definitely a good place to put hepa air purifiers. Ones with charcoal filters would eliminate odour as well.

s7ryf3925pivug

Wibbs wrote: »

Maybe, but I'd like to understand the mechanism and hard science of this "super spreader" idea. To be such a case a person would be pumping out a much higher viral cloud than average. Which would also mean more of their cells have been hijacked by the virus and replicating same at a higher rate than average. So more of his cells would be compromised and dying or dead.

I can see how a bacterial "super spreader" can exist. In that case their bodies have I suppose declared a truce of sorts, at a level where they're not obviously sick, but the bacteria are still being produced and passed to others(Typhoid Mary a good example), but since a virus hijacks and usually kills or majorly disables the host cells I'm not seeing how in the case of viral infections?

So the obvious question remains; how would someone like that be asymptomatic yet produce more viral particles to infect others?

Farts. Wet farts.

ThePopehimself

Hector Savage wrote: »

What good would that do ? most cases are spread by coughing/sneezing in public ...

“Scientists still do not know for sure whether transmission is through droplets from coughs or possibly airborne particles.”
Professor Gabriel Leung, Chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University
– one of the world’s experts on coronavirus epidemics. (Yesterday on his way to a meeting with international experts in Geneva )

ohnonotgmail

Wibbs wrote: »

Maybe, but I'd like to understand the mechanism and hard science of this "super spreader" idea. To be such a case a person would be pumping out a much higher viral cloud than average. Which would also mean more of their cells have been hijacked by the virus and replicating same at a higher rate than average. So more of his cells would be compromised and dying or dead.

I can see how a bacterial "super spreader" can exist. In that case their bodies have I suppose declared a truce of sorts, at a level where they're not obviously sick, but the bacteria are still being produced and passed to others(Typhoid Mary a good example), but since a virus hijacks and usually kills or majorly disables the host cells I'm not seeing how in the case of viral infections?

So the obvious question remains; how would someone like that be asymptomatic yet produce more viral particles to infect others?

According to the BBC this morning there are two types of super spreader. The first , like you say above, who just transmit more of the virus than others. The second are those who come into closer contact with large groups of people so have more chances to spread. Children are supposedly a good example of the second group. In the case of the english guy he could fall into the second group as well. He was in a ski chalet with a group of people for a week if i am remembering correctly so he had more opportunity to transmit the virus.

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

I'm not worried about my own health but I'm worried about how my older relatives will get through this.

And if you catch it a few times , each time your lungs get damaged? Or cytokine storm sometime,maybe you survive but with organ damage.

Draconian measures might be what we need. At all costs

timmyntc

Wibbs wrote: »

Maybe, but I'd like to understand the mechanism and hard science of this "super spreader" idea. To be such a case a person would be pumping out a much higher viral cloud than average. Which would also mean more of their cells have been hijacked by the virus and replicating same at a higher rate than average. So more of his cells would be compromised and dying or dead.

I can see how a bacterial "super spreader" can exist. In that case their bodies have I suppose declared a truce of sorts, at a level where they're not obviously sick, but the bacteria are still being produced and passed to others(Typhoid Mary a good example), but since a virus hijacks and usually kills or majorly disables the host cells I'm not seeing how in the case of viral infections?

So the obvious question remains; how would someone like that be asymptomatic yet produce more viral particles to infect others?

Likely depends on where the virus is concentrated in the body.
In bats, there is increased viral shedding when viruses are concentrated in kidneys/intestines (corona viruses affect both of these).
Maybe yer man peed on his hands/didn't wash them well and then just touched at load of stuff?

ThePopehimself

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

There's evidence that you can catch it by getting other people's poo in your mouth. When you flush a toilet with the lid up, aerosolized poo particles go into the air. So when you go into a public toilet you breathe in tiny amounts of public poo.

Definitely a good place to put hepa air purifiers. Ones with charcoal filters would eliminate odour as well.

I'd send that straight into the Lancet for Peer-Review, you've a way with words! :pac:;):D

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Farts. Wet farts.

Your username suits you so well

BanditLuke

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0211/1114493-coronavirus/

Grave threat to the world.

Drumpot

Wibbs wrote: »

Maybe, but I'd like to understand the mechanism and hard science of this "super spreader" idea. To be such a case a person would be pumping out a much higher viral cloud than average. Which would also mean more of their cells have been hijacked by the virus and replicating same at a higher rate than average. So more of his cells would be compromised and dying or dead.

I can see how a bacterial "super spreader" can exist. In that case their bodies have I suppose declared a truce of sorts, at a level where they're not obviously sick, but the bacteria are still being produced and passed to others(Typhoid Mary a good example), but since a virus hijacks and usually kills or majorly disables the host cells I'm not seeing how in the case of viral infections?

So the obvious question remains; how would someone like that be asymptomatic yet produce more viral particles to infect others?

I know this sounds silly but it makes me think of the child in 28 weeks later who has the virus but he can only pass it on (he doesnt actually suffer from the virus personally).

ThePopehimself

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Farts. Wet farts.

There you go again! So much in so few words

Stark

Wibbs wrote: »

Maybe, but I'd like to understand the mechanism and hard science of this "super spreader" idea. To be such a case a person would be pumping out a much higher viral cloud than average. Which would also mean more of their cells have been hijacked by the virus and replicating same at a higher rate than average. So more of his cells would be compromised and dying or dead.

I can see how a bacterial "super spreader" can exist. In that case their bodies have I suppose declared a truce of sorts, at a level where they're not obviously sick, but the bacteria are still being produced and passed to others(Typhoid Mary a good example), but since a virus hijacks and usually kills or majorly disables the host cells I'm not seeing how in the case of viral infections?

So the obvious question remains; how would someone like that be asymptomatic yet produce more viral particles to infect others?

In the case of the common cold, the virus itself doesn't actually damage cells in the process of replication. It's the effect of the immune system detecting the virus and destroying cells in the process that causes the symptoms. So it's possible to have the virus and be asymptomatic if it flies under the immune system's radar.

Drumpot

BanditLuke wrote: »

I do wish people would stop using the word "panic". Pointing out what's going on and being prepared isn't panic. We are on the crust of something very very serious and we all should be rightfully worried given the state of our health service. It's not the virus that will kill in large numbers it's the fact we will be over run and not be able to help and treat patients thus resulting in deaths.

Its funny cause I have started to discuss this with my wife and tried to send on the links of that Doctor to some friends and I feel like a Lune.

This is a virus, its spreading around the world, its killing some people and we dont yet know the full extent of how it will impact us all. These are just facts, yet I feel silly for discussing it with people . .

wakka12

Whats up with media personally naming the british 'super spreader', youd think he was doing it on purpose the way its being reported. Pictures of the guy up all over skynews..wtf?