new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

drunkmonkey

sdanseo wrote: »

I saw the video. I also saw the third reply:

Why would they all be wearing facemasks and putting the 3 kids in the one body bag if it was carbon monoxide poisoning. Any source to fact check the 3rd reply.

macapaca

sdanseo wrote: »

I saw the video. I also saw the third reply:

Quote:
#FAKENEWSWATCH: This video is not related to the #Coronavirus. The 3 children shown in the video died after carbon monoxide poisoning.
Still shocking nonetheless.

If it was CO2 poisoning then why are the staff wearing hazmat suits though?

Fr_Dougal

BloodBath wrote: »

Based on what mathematics? Impossible to determine with very limited information.

So much sensationalist fear mongering click bait stories been said and linked here as facts. Fear sells if you let it.

Google annual flu death rate yourself to make sure you’re happy with the source.

The math for this Coronavirus is number of deaths/diagnosed * 100.

Of course you won’t know the official death rate until it’s over.

BanditLuke

sdanseo wrote: »

I saw the video. I also saw the third reply:

They died of carbon monoxide poisoning in the hospital?

sdanseo

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Why would they all be wearing facemasks and putting the 3 kids in the one body bag if it was carbon monoxide poisoning. Any source to fact check the 3rd reply.

macapaca wrote: »

If it was CO2 poisoning then why are the staff wearing hazmat suits though?

They're not wearing hazmat suits. Two of the lads look like police or paramedics in black jackets. One doctor is wearing a lab coat. Everyone is wearing a mask. How remarkable. Almost everyone in the continent of Asia is wearing a mask in public at the moment!

The bodies we have thus far being seen moved have been by people in full coveralls, masks, goggles and even splash-visors.

This is not that.
Analyse the video and apply logic.
Stop sensationalising.

BanditLuke wrote: »

They died of carbon monoxide poisoning in the hospital?

They're clearly in a main lobby/ED area. Paramedics would suggest they were just brought in, and quickly it was found that nothing could be done.

car_radio19834

Number of new cases is declining, so this thing should be easily dealt with now I would guess. Might be out of the news in a week.

BloodBath

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Google annual flu death rate yourself to make sure you’re happy with the source.

The math for this Coronavirus is number of deaths/diagnosed * 100.

Of course you won’t know the official death rate until it’s over.

It's not the flu figures I have an issue with. It's the corona virus figures which don't take into account those who don't administer themselves to hospital with it and recover at home.

An example roughly 43 million people get the flu each year. 650k of these are hospitalised. 61k deaths. If you were taking figures from only those who are hospitalised you would get a near 10% death rate which is obviously ridiculous and not an accurate calculation.

The only corona virus figures you have are those who are hospitalised. There's been 45k cases and 1,100 deaths which is 2.5% even lower than the flu's rate if you're only taking hospitalised cases into account.

A load of dramatised bull****.

ceadaoin.

BloodBath wrote: »

It's not the flu figures I have an issue with. It's the corona virus figures which don't take into account those who don't administer themselves to hospital with it and recover at home.

An example roughly 43 million people get the flu each year. 650k of these are hospitalised. 61k deaths. If you were taking figures from only those who are hospitalised you would get a near 10% death rate which is obviously ridiculous and not an accurate calculation.

The only corona virus figures you have are those who are hospitalised. There's been 45k cases and 1,100 deaths which is 2.5% even lower than the flu's rate if you're only taking hospitalised cases into account.

A load of dramatised bull****.

Exactly. It seems clear from the known cases outside china that this a mild illness for most people. Otherwise we would be seeing more deaths and critical cases. If it was spreading out in the wild in the rest of the world (which is almost certainly is), and it was that dangerous, then cases of hospitalization with pneumonia and negative flu tests would be spiking. This doesn't seem to be happening. At least in the US where they report results weekly, most tests are still positive for flu.

The chinese figures only count those who have been hospitalized therefore its already only including cases with severe symptoms who are more likely to have poorer outcomes.

sdanseo

BloodBath wrote: »

It's not the flu figures I have an issue with. It's the corona virus figures which don't take into account those who don't administer themselves to hospital with it and recover at home.

An example roughly 43 million people get the flu each year. 650k of these are hospitalised. 61k deaths. If you were taking figures from only those who are hospitalised you would get a near 10% death rate which is obviously ridiculous and not an accurate calculation.

The only corona virus figures you have are those who are hospitalised. There's been 45k cases and 1,100 deaths which is 2.5% even lower than the flu's rate if you're only taking hospitalised cases into account.

A load of dramatised bull****.

Those figures are just the USA. More than 650,000 people die of the flu in the world annually.

Around 54 times more people have died from the flu in the last 30 days than Coronavirus, although obviously the case fatality ration is spectacularly high in comparison.

Martina1991

drunkmonkey wrote:

I thought kids were safe enough from this, I've just seen 3 of them go in the one body bag, no need to post it.

How do you even know thats from coronavirus.

You shouldn't just drop that into the thread when it could be completely unrelated.

People here are worried enough as it is.

tuxy

macapaca wrote: »

If it was CO2 poisoning then why are the staff wearing hazmat suits though?

No hazmat suits in the video, just masks.

There is currently a very serious coronavirus in many cities in China, it is illegal to not wear a mask in public.
However this will not prevent hospitals from attempting to treat both adults and children suffering from other serious conditions such as carbon monoxide poisoning.

Call Me Jimmy

BloodBath wrote: »

It's not the flu figures I have an issue with. It's the corona virus figures which don't take into account those who don't administer themselves to hospital with it and recover at home.

An example roughly 43 million people get the flu each year. 650k of these are hospitalised. 61k deaths. If you were taking figures from only those who are hospitalised you would get a near 10% death rate which is obviously ridiculous and not an accurate calculation.

The only corona virus figures you have are those who are hospitalised. There's been 45k cases and 1,100 deaths which is 2.5% even lower than the flu's rate if you're only taking hospitalised cases into account.

A load of dramatised bull****.

What's your take on the Chinese government being such drama queens about it?

givyjoe

car_radio19834 wrote: »

Number of new cases is declining, so this thing should be easily dealt with now I would guess. Might be out of the news in a week.

I'm on the mobile, so I can't stick in that roll eyes emoji.. but seriously, you cannot actually believe that?

Did you miss the WHO stating this was very grave threat to the world, in just the last day?

BorneTobyWilde

I can't imagine those little masks protect all the nurses, soldiers and police rounding up or screening the affected. Could a virus like this be stopped with military action, or is that just the stuff of movies.

ceadaoin.

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

What's your take on the Chinese government being such drama queens about it?

Because they know they dropped the ball big time at the start of this and are pulling out all the stops to get it under control to save face and because their economy depends on it. It's not like they're averse to using such extreme methods against their citizens in normal circumstances, this is just an extension of that

BanditLuke

Some real head in the sand stuff here tonight.

Fr_Dougal

BloodBath wrote: »

It's not the flu figures I have an issue with. It's the corona virus figures which don't take into account those who don't administer themselves to hospital with it and recover at home.

An example roughly 43 million people get the flu each year. 650k of these are hospitalised. 61k deaths. If you were taking figures from only those who are hospitalised you would get a near 10% death rate which is obviously ridiculous and not an accurate calculation.

The only corona virus figures you have are those who are hospitalised. There's been 45k cases and 1,100 deaths which is 2.5% even lower than the flu's rate if you're only taking hospitalised cases into account.

A load of dramatised bull****.

Your post is all over the shop, annual death rate for the flu is .01%.

I’d advise you to do your research before you come in here f-ing and blinding out of yourself.

BloodBath

sdanseo wrote: »

Those figures are just the USA. More than 650,000 people die of the flu in the world annually.

Around 54 times more people have died from the flu in the last 30 days than Coronavirus, although obviously the case fatality ration is spectacularly high in comparison.

Oh right. I missed that. Regardless the % shouldn't change much when brought worldwide.

I don't see how people are getting 20% figure from coronvirus though.

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

What's your take on the Chinese government being such drama queens about it?

In what ways? I'd imagine quarantines are mainly precautionary and they do have a large population so even with low deaths rates it could kill millions if no efforts were made to control it.

I am so glad I didn't hear about this in early January or I would have been convinced I had it!


On Dec 23rd I got a sore throat. That was all, just a sore throat. Then on the evening of Christmas day I started coughing. A dry cough. Had that until 30th. Then on new years Eve I felt great. Thought I was all better but on new year's day I woke up wheezing. All of a sudden I had this soreness down in my chest, loads of crackling and wheezing and whatnot. A little shortness of breath. That went on for almost the entirety of January. The worst part was that it completely wiped me out. I was so fatigued all the time. I couldn't do anything. Even though I wasn't sick, no vomiting or anything, I felt so crap I just couldn't do anything. I know from the flu thread on here at the time that I was far from the only one feeling that way.

Without a doubt, I'd have thought I had covid-19, had I been aware of it! Can see what Gozunda is saying above about people getting the common cold and panic presenting at gps and hospitals and overwhelming the system.

fritzelly

These are the latest figures from the offical Hubei government site

There were 11,295 suspected cases, and 6,756 were excluded on the day; 4890 new clinically diagnosed cases and 10,567 existing clinically diagnosed cases were added on the same day; 15,514 suspected and clinically diagnosed cases were concentratedly isolated. A total of 152,251 close contacts have been tracked, and 77,195 people are still undergoing medical observation.

Can anyone explain why they do not match what is being reported elsewhere like BNO?

BanditLuke

Martina1991 wrote: »

How do you even know thats from coronavirus.

You shouldn't just drop that into the thread when it could be completely unrelated.

People here are worried enough as it is.

With good cause. Pretending this isn't a massive worry is just bizarre but hey maybe the world health organization are just big drama queens.

BloodBath

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Your post is all over the shop, annual death rate for the flu is .01%.

I’d advise you to do your research before you come in here f-ing and blinding out of yourself.

I'd advise you to read my post again. Where did I f-ing anything? I was talking about hospitalised cases only vs hospitalised corona virus cases. We don't have any idea of how many recovered at home from it.

People are saying 20% death rate on corona virus and 200 times higher death rate than the flu but you have no issue with those completely baseless figures.

Fr_Dougal

BloodBath wrote: »

Oh right. I missed that. Regardless the % shouldn't change much when brought worldwide.

I don't see how people are getting 20% figure from coronvirus though.



In what ways? I'd imagine quarantines are mainly precautionary and they do have a large population so even with low deaths rates it could kill millions if no efforts were made to control it.

0.01% for the flu, 2.5% for the Coronavirus.

BorneTobyWilde

Is it safe to go to Chinese restaurants? I know one, they shut down for 3 weeks for Chinese New Year, they all went back to China, will be back next week. They'll walk straight back into Ireland and open shop, surely that's dangerous?

tuxy

BanditLuke wrote: »

Some real head in the sand stuff here tonight.

Which is better, that or the guys that have a direct line to CIA Intel?

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The CIA say it's China's most advanced bio weapons facility of a far different scale to what you are referencing.

If you want balance you are in the wrong place.

Call Me Jimmy

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Because they know they dropped the ball big time at the start of this and are pulling out all the stops to get it under control to save face and because their economy depends on it. It's not like they're averse to using such extreme methods against their citizens in normal circumstances, this is just an extension of that

But what are they afraid of if more people have the flu, the death rate is low hence they are being dramatic like us here?

They've never quarantined their whole country in their home, no. Even for them that is unprecedented and risky across almost every dimension.

BanditLuke

tuxy wrote: »

Which is better, that or the guys that have a direct line to CIA Intel?



If you want balance you are in the wrong place.

Absolutely haven't a breeze what you are talking about. What have the CIA got to do with this?

BloodBath

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

0.01% for the flu, 2.5% for the Coronavirus.

Wrong!

0.01% of all flu cases result in death. It's a far higher number for hospitalised cases. The 2.5% corona virus figure is only hospitalised cases. I outlined this in my first post which you attacked.

Maybe you should learn some comprehension skills.

tuxy

BanditLuke wrote: »

Absolutely haven't a breeze what you are talking about. What have the CIA got to do with this?

Nothing official released to the public but there is a poster on here that has access to information and they have confirmed there is a biosweapons lab in Wuhan. They don't have authorisation to post the source which is understandable.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The CIA say it's the most advanced bio weapons facility in China.

Why do you think China put such extreme measures in place so quick?

BanditLuke

tuxy wrote: »

Nothing official released to the public but there is a poster on here that has access to information and they have confirmed there is a biosweapons lab in Wuhan. They don't have authorisation to post the source which is understandable.

Have the tin foil hats sold out as well as the masks?

tuxy

BanditLuke wrote: »

Have the tin foil hats sold out as well as the masks?

They actually converted the hats into tinfoil masks and shipped them to family in China, global shortage so it means the lizard people will be unstoppable.

sdanseo

BloodBath wrote: »

Wrong!

0.01% of all flu cases result in death. It's a far higher number for hospitalised cases. The 2.5% corona virus figure is only hospitalised cases. I outlined this in my first post which you attacked.

Maybe you should learn some comprehension skills.

That's actually not the case. Around 2.5 to 3% of lab-confirmed cases appear to be fatal.
In Wuhan it was 4.3% of hospitalised lab-confirmed cases.

You are probably right to say there are many times more unconfirmed cases but there is no science to back that up. With flu, there are centuries of epidemiology.

Coronavirus:
Approx. 17% of confirmed cases hospitalised.
Approx. 1/3 of those ICU (5.5% of confirmed)
Approx. 6/36 of those died, but more than half of the total are still in hospital, so that part is a large variable.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

Fr_Dougal

BloodBath wrote: »

Wrong!

0.01% of all flu cases result in death. It's a far higher number for hospitalised cases. The 2.5% corona virus figure is only hospitalised cases. I outlined this in my first post which you attacked.

Maybe you should learn some comprehension skills.

No, you’re wrong.

The 2.5% is not of hospitalised cases, it’s of confirmed cases.

Death rate among patients admitted to hospital
A study on 138 hospitalized patients with 2019-nCoV infection, published on February 7 on JAMA, found that 26% of patients required admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and 4.3% died, but a number of patients were still hospitalized at the time. [9]

A previous study had found that, out of 41 admitted hospital patients, 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.[5]

Days from first symptom to death
The Wang et al. February 7 study published on JAMA found that the median time from first symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to ARDS was 8.0 days.[9]

Previously. the China National Health Commission reported the details of the first 17 deaths up to 24 pm 22 Jan 2020. A study of these cases found that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those with ages below 70 year old (20 [range 10-41] days.[6]

Median Hospital Stay

The JANA study found that, among those discharged alive, the median hospital stay was 10 days.[9]

BloodBath

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

No, you’re wrong.

The 2.5% is not of hospitalised cases, it’s of confirmed cases.

They still aren't accurate figures for comparison against flu. You have no idea of the actual number of unconfirmed cases.

The numbers to reach these % figures are also extremely low. Taking total % figures based on 138 and 41 cases is not going to give an accurate result.

Fr_Dougal

BloodBath wrote: »

They still aren't accurate figures for comparison against flu. You have no idea of the actual number of unconfirmed cases.

I did caveat the death rate by saying we wouldn’t know the exact figures until it was over.

Of course you won’t know the official death rate until it’s over.

The numbers to reach these % figures are also extremely low. Taking total % figures based on 138 and 41 cases is not going to give an accurate result.

The 2.5% is based on all confirmed cases, again not an exact science at the moment as it’s ongoing.

Panrich

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

No, you’re wrong.

The 2.5% is not of hospitalised cases, it’s of confirmed cases.

The oft quoted 138 cases were not just normal hospital corona virus patients. They all had pneumonia which is a severe complication.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

laurah591

fritzelly wrote: »

These are the latest figures from the offical Hubei government site



Can anyone explain why they do not match what is being reported elsewhere like BNO?

What is the link for this source information? Im just looking to track back... but since China changed reporting format - finding this difficult

sdanseo

Panrich wrote: »

The oft quoted 136 cases were not just normal hospital corona virus patients. They all had pneumonia which is a severe complication.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

I had noticed that, and yesterday I quoted it with an explanation that Dr. Campbell seems to be very sure of the 17% admission figure. He seems to have made a very educated assumption that they only admit those with pneumonia, therefore the figures would be one and the same.

I stand to be corrected

bodhrandude

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

I did caveat the death rate by saying we wouldn’t know the exact figures until it was over.

We know nothing really if you take in the Chinese figures, I mean is that the truth anyway that they are telling. Watching this thread with bemusement, mordid curiosity and at times, horror. Some posts can be uplifting with hopeful news only to be destroyed by the next post's facts and figures bringing you back to reality.

fritzelly

laurah591 wrote: »

What is the link for this source information? Im just looking to track back... but since China changed reporting format - finding this difficult

http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202002/t20200212_2024650.shtml

bodhrandude

First American evacuees released from quarantine, isn't that a little too soon, I thought they would be detained longer and tested that they weren't contagious.

https://www.ft.com/content/5b6b6130-e8d1-3601-8fd1-48b758635735

fritzelly

bodhrandude wrote: »

First American evacuees released from quarantine, isn't that a little too soon, I thought they would be detained longer and tested that they weren't contagious.

https://www.ft.com/content/5b6b6130-e8d1-3601-8fd1-48b758635735

I guess if none are showing symptoms then fairly safe - even tho the incubation can be longer it's highly unlikely no one would come down with symptoms earlier if the infection existed

Need better online sources - FT is behind a paywall

tuxy

fritzelly wrote: »

I guess if none are showing symptoms then fairly safe - even tho the incubation can be longer it's highly unlikely no one would come down with symptoms earlier if the infection existed

Need better online sources - FT is behind a paywall

Non paywall source

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/11/804915231/195-americans-are-released-from-coronavirus-quarantine-at-california-air-base

Standard 14 days quarantine, unless something changes that's what it will be in most countries.

fritzelly

They're all screwed

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227379549127761920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1227379549127761920&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Ff2hlpf%3Fresponsive%3Dtrue%26is_nightmode%3Dfalse

tuxy

fritzelly wrote: »

They're all screwed

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227379549127761920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1227379549127761920&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Ff2hlpf%3Fresponsive%3Dtrue%26is_nightmode%3Dfalse

10 days since the first case on that ship, what's the fatality rate on that ship so far?

fritzelly

tuxy wrote: »

10 days since the first case on that ship, what's the fatality rate on that ship so far?

Zero - but that doesn't make the news as terrifying
One American woman saying she's recovered but still in hospital

BloodBath

sdanseo wrote: »

That's actually not the case. Around 2.5 to 3% of lab-confirmed cases appear to be fatal.
In Wuhan it was 4.3% of hospitalised lab-confirmed cases.

You are probably right to say there are many times more unconfirmed cases but there is no science to back that up. With flu, there are centuries of epidemiology.

Coronavirus:
Approx. 17% of confirmed cases hospitalised.
Approx. 1/3 of those ICU (5.5% of confirmed)
Approx. 6/36 of those died, but more than half of the total are still in hospital, so that part is a large variable.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

I'm still a lot more right than those throwing around a 20% death rate and 200 times deadlier than the flu comments.

Those hospitalised figures are still lower than those that die from flu after being hospitalised. Yet nobody challenges outrageous false statements like 200 times deadlier than the flu.

wakka12

BloodBath wrote: »

Based on what mathematics? Impossible to determine with very limited information.

So much sensationalist fear mongering click bait stories been said and linked here as facts. Fear sells if you let it.

Its not scare mongering, it is widely believed to have a mortality rate of around 2%, as stated by WHO, CDC, and multiple other experts in the field, I have not seen any high profile spokesperson in the field claim it to be only as dangerous as the flu.

josip

They've really f***ed up with their handling of the cruise ship.
How long before the passengers revolt and try to escape the experiment.
Are they locked in their cabins or simply 'confined' ?

BloodBath

wakka12 wrote: »

Its not scare mongering, it is widely believed to have a mortality rate of around 2%, as stated by WHO, CDC, and multiple other experts in the field, I have not seen any high profile spokesperson in the field claim it to be only as dangerous as the flu.

Based on completely flawed mathmatics as I have already pointed out.

They have no idea of the number of unconfirmed cases which is always going to be a lot higher than the confirmed ones.

How about comparing 2 numbers we do have access to. Mortality rate for those hospitalised with flu vs corona virus.