GE2020 Kildare South

aodh_rua

Remember to vote for/have an opinion on which Fiona you mean. Fiona O'Loughlin is the FF TD, and Fiona McLoughlin Healy is the independent who was bullied out of FG for trying to raise issues about KWETB, and who has been taking on a lot of local vested interests.

Calhoun

aodh_rua wrote: »

Remember to vote for/have an opinion on which Fiona you mean. Fiona O'Loughlin is the FF TD, and Fiona McLoughlin Healy is the independent who was bullied out of FG for trying to raise issues about KWETB, and who has been taking on a lot of local vested interests.

Crazy stuff.

L1011

Calhoun wrote: »

Crazy stuff.

One area of the UK elected two MEPs with the same name last year. With VERY different political stances.

sydthebeat

silver2020 wrote: »

Agree with above. Can't see Berry getting a seat. He'll get decent number, but will fall far short. I'd say the reason for the low betting odds is that there are more bookie shops in Newbridge than Costa Coffee shops in the county Many say he's decent and all that, but FG & especially FF are entrenched in the area. The new part is very much FF/Lab (Sean Fleming's vote), so it will probably be down to FF/Lab for the last seat.
I'd still keep an eye on the Greens. If the younger vote comes out and he mounts any form of campaign, he could be in with a shout. This Saturday vote could make a lot of polls look silly and you could get a 70%+ turnout

while not saying that Berry will get in, but there is a big push around the Portarlington area to present him as the Portarlington Candidate.

Theres still a bitter taste around there because of the electroy boundary change, and if we're looking at something like 8,500 votes to get in.... having a strong showing around Portarlington and its environs (with about 8000 eligible voters) would go a long way towards that.

His single issue platform isnt going to do him any favours though.

Calhoun

L1011 wrote: »

One area of the UK elected two MEPs with the same name last year. With VERY different political stances.

I meant more the bullying from FG, especially as they are quick to call it out in SF.

Tacitus Kilgore

Thoughts on the soc dem candidate Linda Hayden?

Surely a better shout than Dr. Berry>

eusap

we can argue all day about local issues and parish pumps, but if people are voting for local names/local issues not sure linda hayden will do well.

If people vote for parties (soc dems) she might do ok. The older generation are better for voting for parties no matter who the candidate is.

Calhoun

Soc Dems might do well if they can keep the likes of Gannon hidden away until after the election.

Take it with a pinch of salt but the indo ranked Shortall poorly in the debate lastnight.

WishUWereHere

Calhoun wrote: »

Soc Dems might do well if they can keep the likes of Gannon hidden away until after the election.

Take it with a pinch of salt but the indo ranked Shortall poorly in the debate lastnight.

I watched the debate last night. I just couldn’t take Mick Martin & Mary Lou checking each other any more. I would never vote fg, but thought Leo kinda stood back & let the other go for each other’s throats.I thought RBB won it, hands down. RS? I’m of the opinion that the debate kind of by passed Her. But Her forte would surely have been on health, but why not a word on that topic?
Who ever decided on Howlin being at the end of the line? I got the impression the debate ran and he was only there to make up the numbers. Ryan didn’t impress me one bit. Not convinced by any of them being honest, bar RBB. I also thought Claire Byrne didn’t have the best of nights.

On another note, I live in Roseberry Hill and still waiting for any one of the prospective candidates to knock on my door.

aodh_rua

Calhoun wrote: »

I meant more the bullying from FG, especially as they are quick to call it out in SF.

It was pretty public in the end. She called out the FG mayor at the time for not allowing debate, and was rewarded with a suspension by FG nationally. After she resigned from the party, there was an active campaign to stop her from even presenting motions for debate.

She then romped home in the locals.

On the Portarlington votes, this will be a 3 seater but will need four thirds of a quota. It'll really depend on the order of eliminations, and Berry might struggle. The Defence Forces issue is not one that necessarily resonates locally beyond serving members families. I also think the McDowell support will come with a price - people have long memories, and it's hard to run on a caring member when you choose him to launch your campaign.

Calhoun

aodh_rua wrote: »

It was pretty public in the end. She called out the FG mayor at the time for not allowing debate, and was rewarded with a suspension by FG nationally. After she resigned from the party, there was an active campaign to stop her from even presenting motions for debate.

She then romped home in the locals.

On the Portarlington votes, this will be a 3 seater but will need four thirds of a quota. It'll really depend on the order of eliminations, and Berry might struggle. The Defence Forces issue is not one that necessarily resonates locally beyond serving members families. I also think the McDowell support will come with a price - people have long memories, and it's hard to run on a caring member when you choose him to launch your campaign.

That is pretty bad alright and its the type of politics that they would be hanging other parties for.

What was the issue? are you able to share or is it sensitive? Sounds like she is someone with conviction.

I am not sure if many serving families in Port, it seems to be a big commuter town. My wife is from the town and he is a relative unknown.

I did one of the mass email campaign things for disabilities in Ireland and he was the only candidate that didn't have an email to contact. That is a big red flag for me.

aodh_rua

Calhoun wrote: »

That is pretty bad alright and its the type of politics that they would be hanging other parties for.

What was the issue? are you able to share or is it sensitive? Sounds like she is someone with conviction.

I am not sure if many serving families in Port, it seems to be a big commuter town. My wife is from the town and he is a relative unknown.

I did one of the mass email campaign things for disabilities in Ireland and he was the only candidate that didn't have an email to contact. That is a big red flag for me.

Do a Google search on KWETB and you'll see what the controversy was about. There was also a Prime Time Investigates. Interestingly none of the other 39 members of the new Council would second her nomination to go back on the board.

Calhoun

aodh_rua wrote: »

Do a Google search on KWETB and you'll see what the controversy was about. There was also a Prime Time Investigates. Interestingly none of the other 39 members of the new Council would second her nomination to go back in the board.

Very interesting, might just give her a vote after finding this out as seems too have some conviction.

Magilla Gorilla

aodh_rua wrote: »

It was pretty public in the end. She called out the FG mayor at the time for not allowing debate, and was rewarded with a suspension by FG nationally. After she resigned from the party, there was an active campaign to stop her from even presenting motions for debate.

She then romped home in the locals.

If you're going to tell the story, why not give a full account of her antics on the council since she first got elected. She lost all goodwill (from all sides) very early on when she attempted to drag Fiona O'Loughlin through the mud over a Mickey Mouse grant to a group her brother was involved in. She seems to think everyone everywhere is corrupt while not being exactly whiter than white herself.



When your party colleagues don't want you alongside them.....



N.B. I'm not a member of any party and have never given FG or FF a vote in my life.

aodh_rua

Magilla Gorilla wrote: »

If you're going to tell the story, why not give a full account of her antics on the council since she first got elected. She lost all goodwill (from all sides) very early on when she attempted to drag Fiona O'Loughlin through the mud over a Mickey Mouse grant to a group her brother was involved in. She seems to think everyone everywhere is corrupt while not being exactly whiter than white herself.



When your party colleagues don't want you alongside them.....



N.B. I'm not a member of any party and have never given FG or FF a vote in my life.

You probably mean the Decade of Commemorations grant debacle.

FMH highlighted that FO'L chaired a committee that allocated a public grant to an organisation that had involvement from the O'Loughlin family. It's a requirement for public reps to declare conflicts of interest, with no minimum value on the sums involved, and the test is whether a member of the public might think there's a potential conflict. That did not happen.

There was no question of the grant being improper, but it got pretty ugly.

I think that grant was a couple of hundred euro and the KWETB has a budget of tens of millions. Where should we draw the line on how ethics rules begin and end?

Orion

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Thoughts on the soc dem candidate Linda Hayden?

Surely a better shout than Dr. Berry>

First off I'm a SocDem.
Secondly I know Linda personally.
So take anything I say as biased.

She's a wonderful woman. Tireless advocate for sexual violence victims through AASVI (and a rape victim herself). Very committed to proper pay for defence forces - been active in that for a while.

That said getting her elected is a big ask in the current constituency. 3 seats up for grabs out of 4.

Fiona O'Loughlin will probably top the poll (FF got 36% between them last time. I know there's a running mate but with the Ceann Comhairle returned automatically she'll pick up his votes ahead of Doyle.

Hayden will be second. Topped last time but anti-FG sentiment and FF as above will get him over the line but not in top spot.

After that my money would be on Mark Wall with Berry as a (very) outside chance.

Orion

Calhoun wrote: »

Soc Dems might do well if they can keep the likes of Gannon hidden away until after the election.

Take it with a pinch of salt but the indo ranked Shortall poorly in the debate lastnight.

Well the Indo would in fairness. She wasn't the best at the debate but far from the worst. That title has to go to Eamon Ryan.

Calhoun

Orion wrote: »

Well the Indo would in fairness. She wasn't the best at the debate but far from the worst. That title has to go to Eamon Ryan.

The picture they used of him is tragic.

Orion

Calhoun wrote: »

The picture they used of him is tragic.

Much like his performance then.

Calhoun

Orion wrote: »

Much like his performance then.

Greens seem to be on a roll apparently Saoirse had a rough night on primetime.

WishUWereHere

A couple of things re the upcoming election:

A) have potential tds given up knocking on doors? I’m still waiting for any of them to knock.

having watched the debates during the past week, none of the parties instil me with confidence. I would like to know more about FMcLH, but also not sure if she is any good. I recall the last election, Vincent Browne had a debate in the Keadeen. Among the contributors were both Fiona’s and Hayden. At one point, VB turned to FMcLH and asked were her & MH from the same party. I just get the feeling with her that she is only in it for her own motives.

WishUWereHere

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Thoughts on the soc dem candidate Linda Hayden?

Surely a better shout than Dr. Berry>

Linda who?

In fact, I think ALL nominations need to up their game. The only candidates I am aware of are MH, FO’L, FMcLH, CB & MW.


Haydon & FO’L because they are sitting td’s. Wall because his Dad had a good reputation in KS, Berry because of his extensive poster campaign throughout Newbridge & FMcLH because of ..well....being herself.

However, as far as the rest go, I cannot even name the gp candidate, nor the shin fein one either. It says a lot that I had to google to find out who else is running. I was surprised to discover that we have a solidarity pop candidate as well as an Aontú one running too & also a 2nd FF candidate also..

Really makes me wonder just how committed some of these other people are to the area or want to be elected.

EDIT: Just learnt that SF are now poll toppers along with FF (https://www.thejournal.ie/sinn-fein-fianna-fail-tied-opinion-poll-4989612-Feb2020/ ) .

I wonder just how much of that can be attributed to their ( SF ) popularity, or how disgusted the electorate are with the FFG cartel?

aodh_rua

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Linda who?

In fact, I think ALL nominations need to up their game. The only candidates I am aware of are MH, FO’L, FMcLH, CB & MW.


Haydon & FO’L because they are sitting td’s. Wall because his Dad had a good reputation in KS, Berry because of his extensive poster campaign throughout Newbridge & FMcLH because of ..well....being herself.

However, as far as the rest go, I cannot even name the gp candidate, nor the shin fein one either. It says a lot that I had to google to find out who else is running. I was surprised to discover that we have a solidarity pop candidate as well as an Aontú one running too & also a 2nd FF candidate also..

Really makes me wonder just how committed some of these other people are to the area or want to be elected.

EDIT: Just learnt that SF are now poll toppers along with FF (https://www.thejournal.ie/sinn-fein-fianna-fail-tied-opinion-poll-4989612-Feb2020/ ) .

I wonder just how much of that can be attributed to their ( SF ) popularity, or how disgusted the electorate are with the FFG cartel?

Apparently the SF candidate is on holidays - there was a candidate debate in her hometown of Monasterevin on Friday, and she was a no-show.

L1011

If you had a holiday pre-booked and hadn't expected both the election date and the polling figures that have started piling up, you probably would actually take the holiday tbh.

WishUWereHere

aodh_rua wrote: »

Apparently the SF candidate is on holidays - there was a candidate debate in her hometown of Monasterevin on Friday, and she was a no-show.

And she is a member of the party co-topping the national polls? Sorry, but if I were Mary Lou, I'd have told any candidates representing the shinners to forego the holidays and plant ALL resources into this election. If ever SF had a chance, surely this is it.

Breakerz

I don't think Hayden or O'Loughlin are certainties to return but both probably will due to the profile of candidates in the area. Some of the people knocking on doors on behalf of Hayden were very poor IMO. FG seem to have a few local issues on their leaflets but FF seem very generic. I think Hayden will suffer because of the rail fares in South Kildare which has been a big issue.

My prediction is:

1. McLoughlin-Healy
2. O'Loughlin
3. Hayden

Wall would probably be a certainty if the boundary changes didn't happen. I don't think any of the candidates will be particularly strong. It will be interesting to see how the Greens do too.

I'm surprised Sinn Fein haven't put more resources into attacking South Kildare because you would think they would have a great chance.

WishUWereHere

Breakerz wrote: »

I don't think Hayden or O'Loughlin are certainties to return but both probably will due to the profile of candidates in the area. Some of the people knocking on doors on behalf of Hayden were very poor IMO. FG seem to have a few local issues on their leaflets but FF seem very generic. I think Hayden will suffer because of the rail fares in South Kildare which has been a big issue.

My prediction is:

1. McLoughlin-Healy
2. O'Loughlin
3. Hayden

Wall would probably be a certainty if the boundary changes didn't happen. I don't think any of the candidates will be particularly strong. It will be interesting to see how the Greens do too.

I'm surprised Sinn Fein haven't put more resources into attacking South Kildare because you would think they would have a great chance.

Aside from Your predictions, I find it hard to disagree with anything You say above OP.

McL H 1st past the post? Now that is a brave forecast. I would tend to agree with your #'s2 & 3, but not in that order.

For me, I think;
1 F O'L
2 Berry &
3.Haydon.

Calhoun

Anyone know much about the Aontu candidate ? Havent really heard much about her in the area other than she possibly is a principal of a local school.

aodh_rua

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Aside from Your predictions, I find it hard to disagree with anything You say above OP.

McL H 1st past the post? Now that is a brave forecast. I would tend to agree with your #'s2 & 3, but not in that order.

For me, I think;
1 F O'L
2 Berry &
3.Haydon.

I think the constituency is going to be a lot more interesting than the national press are suggesting.

Here's my tuppence, and don't forget - election here will require a super quota of 4/3's the normal because the population is that of a four-seater, but only three seats to be filled.

Fiona O'Loughlin - probably sees herself in Cabinet if FF get in (junior minister at the least); probably the candidate with the best profile into the far north of Kildare South, as well as a base in Newbridge; she's a bit like marmite to those who don't like her style of appearing at everything

Suzanne Doyle - generally seen as a very hard worker on the Council, and will get the residual Sean O Fearghail vote; the Approved Housing Bodies issue could really bite her and became a heated exchange at the Monasterevin hustings last week

FF - overall they could get up to 40%, and possibility of two seats; Kildare South is a strong FF constituency and they probably have the strongest councillors in the constituency which will pay off

Martin Heydon - his 21% last time might be hard to repeat; he has no running mate, a credible challenger in his Athy backyard, and as one of the few FG TDs who is not a minister or committee chair, he has not been a strong Dáil performer; FG will get punished for quality of life issues (especially in Newbridge), and his seat is really a barometer for FG rather than personal support - could be in serious trouble

FG - no more than 20%, and struggling for transfers

Mark Wall - huge personal support for the Wall family in Athy, but Labour have no public reps in the bigger population areas; he is a good vote-getter, but Labour nationally won't be adding anything to his support. He will survive or fall based on where he comes on the first count - he needs to outlive a few independents and pick up transfers, but given so many are around Newbridge, he cannot bank on those votes heading south

Labour - will definitely poll higher than the national average, but getting beyond 12% will be a challenge.

Patricia Ryan - the sole SF councillor in a county that before 2014 never had one. Her absence from the campaign, and the lack of a strong local organsiation will make it hard to translate SF's national success locally. However, there is a strong SF councillor in Portarlington, which could give her a lift past 10%.

SF - 10% but really needing a strong showing in Portarlington

Linda Hayden - on a personal level she seems a strong and credible candidate, however the Soc Dems are really depending on some of Catherine Murphy's profile carrying to the south of the county.

SocDems - less than 5%

Ronan Maher - seems like a very earnest candidate, and the only one under-30. Kildare North is probably more of a prospect than the south, but his transfers could influence the downstream eliminations.

Greens - less than 5%

Róisín Uí Bhroin - has a particular debating style that seems to work well with a crowd, but Kildare is not a natural home for the hard left.

PBP - less than 5%

Anita Mhic Ghib - hard to see much impact from Aountú. KS was pretty emphatically pro-choice in the referendum, and republicans will probably go for Ryan.

Aountú - less than 2%

Fiona McLoughlin-Healy - good ground campaign underway, and will have strong name recognition from her work on the KWETB; she has done a lot of work with community groups, and particularly the Approved Housing Bodies which will probably be a big issue in Newbridge on Monday night. The established parties, particularly FF and FG really don't like her, but she will get a good first preference and will be transfer friendly.

Cathal Berry - running an incredibly well-funded campaign, with a lot of ex-military backers. Not sure the choice of Michael McDowell for his launch aligns with the caring image, and the army angle is not as clear cut as some commentators expect. Traditionally the Defence Forces are an FF constituency, and they're unlikely to go 100% for an independent. There's also some resentment in Newbridge and elsewhere of soldiers' ability to pick up casual work to top up their salaries, and making it hard for people in the service industry to get work. He will do well out of Portarlington, but his ability to pick up transfers from eliminated Greens and SocDems is unlikely.

On a bad day for Fine Gael, it could be FOL, Doyle and take your pick from FMH, Berry and Wall. I think location, track record and transfer-friendliness will shade it for Fiona McLoughlin-Healy, which could mean three female TDs elected.

aodh_rua

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Aside from Your predictions, I find it hard to disagree with anything You say above OP.

McL H 1st past the post? Now that is a brave forecast. I would tend to agree with your #'s2 & 3, but not in that order.

For me, I think;
1 F O'L
2 Berry &
3.Haydon.

I think the constituency is going to be a lot more interesting than the national press are suggesting.

Here's my tuppence, and don't forget - election here will require a super quota of 4/3's the normal because the population is that of a four-seater, but only three seats to be filled.

Fiona O'Loughlin - probably sees herself in Cabinet if FF get in (junior minister at the least); probably the candidate with the best profile into the far north of Kildare South, as well as a base in Newbridge; she's a bit like marmite to those who don't like her style of appearing at everything

Suzanne Doyle - generally seen as a very hard worker on the Council, and will get the residual Sean O Fearghail vote; the Approved Housing Bodies issue could really bite her and became a heated exchange at the Monasterevin hustings last week

FF - overall they could get up to 40%, and possibility of two seats; Kildare South is a strong FF constituency and they probably have the strongest councillors in the constituency which will pay off

Martin Heydon - his 21% last time might be hard to repeat; he has no running mate, a credible challenger in his Athy backyard, and as one of the few FG TDs who is not a minister or committee chair, he has not been a strong Dáil performer; FG will get punished for quality of life issues (especially in Newbridge), and his seat is really a barometer for FG rather than personal support - could be in serious trouble

FG - no more than 20%, and struggling for transfers

Mark Wall - huge personal support for the Wall family in Athy, but Labour have no public reps in the bigger population areas; he is a good vote-getter, but Labour nationally won't be adding anything to his support. He will survive or fall based on where he comes on the first count - he needs to outlive a few eliminations and pick up transfers, but given so many are around Newbridge, he cannot bank on those votes heading south

Labour - will definitely poll higher than the national average, but getting beyond 12% will be a challenge.

Patricia Ryan - the sole SF councillor in a county that before 2014 never had one. Her absence from the campaign, and the lack of a strong local organsiation will make it hard to translate SF's national success locally. However, there is a strong SF councillor in Portarlington, which could give her a lift past 10%.

SF - 10% but really needing a strong showing in Portarlington

Linda Hayden - on a personal level she seems a strong and credible candidate, however the Soc Dems are really depending on some of Catherine Murphy's profile carrying to the south of the county.

SocDems - less than 5%

Ronan Maher - seems like a very earnest candidate, and the only one under-30. Kildare North is probably more of a prospect than the south, but his transfers could influence the downstream eliminations.

Greens - less than 5%

Róisín Uí Bhroin - has a particular debating style that seems to work well with a crowd, but Kildare is not a natural home for the hard left.

PBP - less than 5%

Anita Mhic Ghib - hard to see much impact from Aountú. KS was pretty emphatically pro-choice in the referendum, and republicans will probably go for Ryan.

Aountú - less than 2%

Fiona McLoughlin-Healy - good ground campaign underway, and will have strong name recognition from her work on the KWETB; she has done a lot of work with community groups, and particularly the Approved Housing Bodies which will probably be a big issue in Newbridge on Monday night. The established parties, particularly FF and FG really don't like her, but she will get a good first preference and will be transfer friendly.

Cathal Berry - running an incredibly well-funded campaign, with a lot of ex-military backers. Not sure the choice of Michael McDowell for his launch aligns with the caring image, and the army angle is not as clear cut as some commentators expect. Traditionally the Defence Forces are an FF constituency, and they're unlikely to go 100% for an independent. There's also some resentment in Newbridge and elsewhere of soldiers' ability to pick up casual work to top up their salaries, and making it hard for people in the service industry to get work. He will do well out of Portarlington, but his ability to pick up transfers from eliminated Greens and SocDems is unlikely.

On a bad day for Fine Gael, it could be FOL, Doyle and take your pick from FMH, Berry and Wall. I think location, track record and transfer-friendliness will shade it for Fiona McLoughlin-Healy, which could mean three female TDs elected.