GE2020 Kildare South

aodh_rua

Huge crowd in the Town Hall tonight for the debate, minus Patricia Ryan again. It looks like the Indo have discovered she's on holidays.

Calhoun

aodh_rua wrote: »

Huge crowd in the Town Hall tonight for the debate, minus Patricia Ryan again. It looks like the Indo have discovered she's on holidays.

Nice how would you rate the candidates?

The article your talking about.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/sinn-fein-election-candidate-missing-on-campaign-trail-due-to-holiday-38923800.html

WishUWereHere

Calhoun wrote: »

Nice how would you rate the candidates?

The article your talking about.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/sinn-fein-election-candidate-missing-on-campaign-trail-due-to-holiday-38923800.html

Assuming this is fact, this just shows how serious SF are about wanting to make an impact in KS. I was never going to vote for them, this just endorses my decision.

I couldn’tmake the town hall last night, mind me asking for feedback? TIA

aodh_rua

If you're on Facebook, you can watch the whole thing back on the Newbridge Tidy Towns page.

My thoughts....

Martin Heydon - clearly under a lot of pressure, made a very ill-considered snipe back on the Defence Forces, lots of anger in the room

Fiona O'Loughlin - she's pretty bulletproof at this; nothing new but solid

Suzanne Doyle - better evening than she was on Friday in Monasterevin; she managed not get to get drawn into the AHB controversy

Mark Wall - spoke well, but not a lot of substance

Fiona McLoughlin-Healy - scored a couple of good hits, and finally started challenging/fact-checking Berry

Cathal Berry - spoke well on the Defence Forces, but was pretty limited on anything else

Linda Hayden - spoke well, but really gave an SD platform rather than specifics for Newbridge

Anita Mhic Ghib - spent a lot of time attacking things, presented a pretty conservative social view

Róisín Uí Bhroin - didn't fully engage over the whole evening; as a singer, she can hold a crowd, but a lot of the PBP mantra is economic fantasy with no base locally

Ronan Maher - very authentic and un-politician

And for what it's worth

Patricia Ryan - she should have postponed her holiday, and SF could afford to reimburse her; the line for over a week now to Kfm listeners and two public meetings that she was unavoidably unable to attend is pretty underhanded from SF; people know she's away for most of the campaign

silver2020

aodh_rua wrote: »

Patricia Ryan - she should have postponed her holiday, and SF could afford to reimburse her; the line for over a week now to Kfm listeners and two public meetings that she was unavoidably unable to attend is pretty underhanded from SF; people know she's away for most of the campaign

And this is my big problem with SF. They simply cannot give a straight-forward answer to a straight-forward question - even one as simple as this.

Calhoun

aodh_rua thank you for that you are a font of knowledge and really helps consider each candidate before Saturday.

I will definitely have a look at the recording of the meeting.

Scoundrel

aodh_rua wrote: »

And for what it's worth

Patricia Ryan - she should have postponed her holiday, and SF could afford to reimburse her; the line for over a week now to Kfm listeners and two public meetings that she was unavoidably unable to attend is pretty underhanded from SF; people know she's away for most of the campaign

It's funny the levels of dedication Sinn Féin used to inspire Bobby Sands starved to death for his ideals and this one wouldn't give up a piss up in Lanzarote

WishUWereHere

Aodh_rua, I would also like to thank you for the feedback from last night. I don’t do FB so am relying on any feedback.yours is priceless.

On another note, I had my first visit tonight from a canvasser for MH. I gave the poor person grief, saying we are not south enough for him. She gave me literature stating (quote) Delivering for Newbridge.

One of its is: Government funding was secured to develop plans for a new public realm space and cultural quarter in Newbridge. I wish I had seen this while she was at the door. Anyone know what is a public realm space?

But it’s his point 2 which really galled:me. (Quote) Government investment of E30 million in the construction of the Newbridge interceptor, started last May, will link Newbridge to Osberstown wastewater treatment plant and allow further housing development in the town. So more houses, but no roads?

I also brought up the travelers in the field bySexes Bridge ( they moved on last week, but of course left a skip full of rubbish, and the mobile home is still there with one door lying on the ground ). I mentioned that they had a post box. The canvasser said they were aware of this. Also asked were they paying LPT? Didn’t get an answer.

Sorry,but fg won’t be getting anything from me. Also AR’s feedback on MH also convinced me.

Sorry for the rant, but once again Go raibh mhíle mhaith agat Aodh_Rua.

Calhoun

We have a strange scenario where people in laois will be voting for candidates in south kildare but all our support and services are still in laois.

As such there was a mini hustings focused on special needs in Laois, putting this up so people can look at how the party performed rather than the individual.

Special needs support is something dear to my heart as my eldest is on the spectrum and for me how we treat our most vulnerable is a good indication of how decent a candidate is.


Ranked in order of performance:

Deputy Brian Stanley (Sinn Féin), - Understood the subject matter very well and could go into detail on problem areas, was supportive and i left the meeting feeling like he got what people were saying.
Deputy Sean Fleming (Fianna Fáil), - Understood the subject matter well, had a few opinions on the state of where Laois is from an education perspective that i didn't like but his overall solution for how to move forward with special education was best of the lot.
Deputy Carol Nolan (Independent), - Understood the subject matter well due to her background in teach but the problem i would forsee is her ability to get stuff done as she is on her own.
Deputy Charlie Flanagan (Fine Gael), - Bad performance from Charlie, similar to how the party is in the media, not really listening to the problems and providing canned answers. Came across as very disinterested.
Stephen Tynan (People Before Profit), - Definitely a newer candidate, was a bit all over the place but he would know the subject matter as he has kids who are in need of support but was not able to articulate very well.
Pauline Flanagan (Fianna Fáil), - I honestly don't know why she was there as she did not do her homework and was a little bit embarrassing at times. I don't want someone going into power who can nod and a wink get my what i need


No Show:
Cllr. John Leahy (Independent)
Brendan Galvin (Renua),
Noel O’Rourke (Renua),
Cllr. Ken Smollen (Irish Democratic Party),
John Daly (National Party),
Cllr. Peter Ormond (Fianna Fáil),
Deputy Barry Cowen (Fianna Fáil),
Deputy Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy (Fine Gael),
Cllr. Pippa Hackett (Green Party),

its kind of stupid as im now in south kildare but i am posting as we get all our support from laois offaly.

WishUWereHere

I didn’t watch the debate last night ( cannot take Michael Martins voice anymore, it’s grating).

But at this stage of the show, I was just wondering who I will vote for. And have to say none of them instill any confidence in me.

Must be one of the worst selection of candidates in the last 20 years at least.

Calhoun

The debate I thought was very fair all of them got a hard time and was moderated well so they didn't talk over each other.

Mary Lou was definitely the worst performer and resorted to a mainsplaining jab at Martin. In fact she probably helped Martin and Leo out with the performance. Two questions asked by Dobbo early in the week which were asked again she had no answer to and one of them on a killing up the North seen to shake her allot.

The other two were about the same and it really comes down to who do you believe more. If you were voting for one of the three of them it's hard to decide.

In South Kildare the SF front is easier, a candidate not taking part doesn't deserve a vote. For the rest I am also struggling , I keep changing my mind and opinion.

GavMan

As I see it the rest of the left and SF wont have numbers to form a government. None of the centre parties will support them. FG will not coalesce with SF and I don't see FF doing so either (although some one the fringe would).

For me there is only 2 outcomes nationally and that is FF return as the single largest party and there is a role reversal in the Confidence and Supply agreement as Brexit Round 2 kicks off. Or the 2nd and probably equally likely outcome is no government can be formed and there is a 2nd election.

I think a second election would see FF/FG punished for not forming a government.

My own local preferences locally will be for FG FF candidates and FMCLH. You're likely to see MH or FOL in cabinet next time around and Kildare Souths best chance of Govt capital investment IMO. I know that is so parish pump but I am so sick of paying so much tax for so little service. I want some pork from this next government

aodh_rua

GavMan wrote: »

As I see it the rest of the left and SF wont have numbers to form a government. None of the centre parties will support them. FG will not coalesce with SF and I don't see FF doing so either (although some one the fringe would).

For me there is only 2 outcomes nationally and that is FF return as the single largest party and there is a role reversal in the Confidence and Supply agreement as Brexit Round 2 kicks off. Or the 2nd and probably equally likely outcome is no government can be formed and there is a 2nd election.

I think a second election would see FF/FG punished for not forming a government.

My own local preferences locally will be for FG FF candidates and FMCLH. You're likely to see MH or FOL in cabinet next time around and Kildare Souths best chance of Govt capital investment IMO. I know that is so parish pump but I am so sick of paying so much tax for so little service. I want some pork from this next government

MH is one of the very few Fine Gael TDs without a cabinet or junior department or a committee chair, his best route for promotion is seat losses for Fine Gael, and that would mean opposition.

The most likely next government is FF, with a lot of help. FOL is well-placed for that, and if Independents are needed FMH could have leverage.

Berry's folks were at the train station in Newbridge yesterday. I didn't see a single person take a leaflet. I'm starting to wonder if his story of an officer's ability to get three third level qualifications and spend time in Brussels, while exiting the army into a lucrative career is looking a little Marie Antoinette compared to soldiers needing welfare to feed their families.

aodh_rua

For what it's worth, here are my predictions for tomorrow in Kildare South....

* FF to get the most votes
* Fiona O'Loughlin to get elected
* One of Martin Heydon or Suzanne Doyle to be the last candidate standing and not elected
* SF candidate to go back on holidays; not a natural constituency for them, and she put her hols ahead of canvassing
* The final seat to be between Fiona McLoughlin Healy, Mark Wall and Cathal Berry - order of eliminations crucial
* Wall to get the most first preferences of those three, but will struggle for transfers (geography only helps him on number 1's)
* Berry has overstated the DF vote and Portarlington won't elect a TD on their own
* Fiona Mc has run a really strong ground campaign, and has name recognition - this will be crucial; the smaller parties have anti-FF/FG candidates in Newbridge (GP/SD) who will transfer to FMH and take her ahead of Berry if she's not already there; his transfers to push her past Wall

Damien360

aodh_rua wrote: »

For what it's worth, here are my predictions for tomorrow in Kildare South....

* FF to get the most votes
* Fiona O'Loughlin to get elected
* One of Martin Heydon or Suzanne Doyle to be the last candidate standing and not elected
* SF candidate to go back on holidays; not a natural constituency for them, and she put her hols ahead of canvassing
* The final seat to be between Fiona McLoughlin Healy, Mark Wall and Cathal Berry - order of eliminations crucial
* Wall to get the most first preferences of those three, but will struggle for transfers (geography only helps him on number 1's)
* Berry has overstated the DF vote and Portarlington won't elect a TD on their own
* Fiona Mc has run a really strong ground campaign, and has name recognition - this will be crucial; the smaller parties have anti-FF/FG candidates in Newbridge (GP/SD) who will transfer to FMH and take her ahead of Berry if she's not already there; his transfers to push her past Wall

Agree Fiona Mc is a shoe in.

Heydon and Doyle haven’t been as public in their profile. Even thinking back to Kildare Post and Leinster Leader of recent weeks and I can’t remember either sticking their faces in. Particularly Heydon who has been anonymous in Kildare/Newbridge pretty much throughout this government.

Fiona Healy is very strong in Newbridge and I think she will get in ahead of Heydon and Doyle. She hasn’t made enough of the KWETB stance which is a pity. See her FB and she is personally covering a lot of ground into Kildare and Monasterevin.

Fight out for last seat between Doyle, Wall and Heydon. Likely Doyle as Wall doesn’t have enough outside his home area.

Breakerz

I saw two polls from a political party on the KS constituency. Average was:

15.4% FOL
13.1% MH
12.3% PR
12.2% MW
12.2% SD
11.6% FMcLH
9.6% RM
8.5% LH
4.5% CB
.6% Others

Can't see it turning out like the above but everything is suggesting the margins will be very tight. Would be very surprised if PR improved her numbers on 2016 considering she's gone on holidays when she should be campaigning. Massive own goal by SF.

Calhoun

I was going to give a preference to Ryan but not after being a no show I don't think I will.

StupidLikeAFox

Paddy Power has Heydon and FOL as shoo ins with the last seat a toss up between Suzanne Doyle and Mark Wall.

Fiona McL Healy is way down at 5/1 so would be a good punt if ye think she can pull it off

Calhoun

When you say FMCl do you mean Fiona O'Loughlin ?

StupidLikeAFox

Calhoun wrote: »

When you say FMCl do you mean Fiona O'Loughlin ?

Yes, edited now, think I'll stick with FiFF and Findo in future!

aodh_rua

Fiona Mc is amazing value at 5/1.

WishUWereHere

Breakerz wrote: »

I saw two polls from a political party on the KS constituency. Average was:

15.4% FOL
13.1% MH
12.3% PR
12.2% MW
12.2% SD
11.6% FMcLH
9.6% RM
8.5% LH
4.5% CB
.6% Others

Can't see it turning out like the above but everything is suggesting the margins will be very tight. Would be very surprised if PR improved her numbers on 2016 considering she's gone on holidays when she should be campaigning. Massive own goal by SF.

Have to agree with you. How MHis 2nd top is unbelievable as is #3. Am also amazed none of the Rte folk never challenged Mary Lou on this.

Also says a lot about the state of politics in Ireland when FF are tops, just 11 years after almost destroying the country.

Calhoun

StupidLikeAFox wrote: »

Yes, edited now, think I'll stick with FiFF and Findo in future!

Lol it's a pain in the ass .

Calhoun

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Have to agree with you. How MHis 2nd top is unbelievable as is #3. Am also amazed none of the Rte folk never challenged Mary Lou on this.

Also says a lot about the state of politics in Ireland when FF are tops, just 11 years after almost destroying the country.

A big part of this has to do with the opposition not putting up a decent enough showing. There is also the whole if we took all parties to task for past discretions we would vote for no one.

SF with the rise in the past few weeks should have been guaranteed a seat but Ryan's holiday sends a strong message on how serious she takes the public.

raven136

I think Heydons vote will lose a lot but he will get elected
SF will get big numbers and if she wasnt on holidays may possibly have pushed for a seat
FFMCL will push for a seat imo

WishUWereHere

Calhoun wrote: »

A big part of this has to do with the opposition not putting up a decent enough showing. There is also the whole if we took all parties to task for past discretions we would vote for no one.

True, but for me, what FF did 11/12 years ago is unforgivable. Also, I supported Labour all my life, but after what gilmore & burton in the name of power finished me with them.

SF with the rise in the past few weeks should have been guaranteed a seat but Ryan's holiday sends a strong message on how serious she takes the public.

Shinners really blew it in KS.

My 1,2,3:

LH
FMcLH
CB

WishUWereHere

Damien360 wrote: »

Agree Fiona Mc is a shoe in.

Heydon and Doyle haven’t been as public in their profile. Even thinking back to Kildare Post and Leinster Leader of recent weeks and I can’t remember either sticking their faces in. Particularly Heydon who has been anonymous in Kildare/Newbridge pretty much throughout this government.

Fiona Healy is very strong in Newbridge and I think she will get in ahead of Heydon and Doyle. She hasn’t made enough of the KWETB stance which is a pity. See her FB and she is personally covering a lot of ground into Kildare and Monasterevin.

Fight out for last seat between Doyle, Wall and Heydon. Likely Doyle as Wall doesn’t have enough outside his home area.

I actually mentioned this to the canvasser the other night. She replied, 'but he has an office here'. duh!!!

raven136

My prediction:

1. FOL
2. Heydon
3. Wall

Honestly feel SF would have had a chance

NewbridgeIR

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Shinners really blew it in KS.

My 1,2,3:

LH
FMcLH
CB

Definitely
Mine were

1/ Linda Hayden
2/ Fiona O'Loughlin
3/ Cathal Berry

Gave the Sinn Fein candidate 10th preference (she would have been much higher if she bothered to campaign) with Martin Heydon last.

Big enough crowd in the Patrician primary at 9.00am

aodh_rua

Looks like turnout across the constituency is around 30% already.

There's a national exit poll at 10 tonight, but I still expect that Kildare South is going to be a marathon count, with a few quick eliminations and then a gaggle of candidates bunched together.