GE2020 Kildare South

Damien360

aodh_rua wrote: »

Looks like turnout across the constituency is around 30% already.

There's a national exit poll at 10 tonight, but I still expect that Kildare South is going to be a marathon count, with a few quick eliminations and then a gaggle of candidates bunched together.

Surprised it would be just 30%. I voted at 10am and I never seen so many people going in to vote. When my name was checked, quite a few were crossed out already.

aodh_rua

Kfm's Ciara Plunkett is posting sample figures on Twitter. Turnout getting closer to 40% at 3:40pm.

WishUWereHere

Just seen MH on RTE & being challenged by Miriam O’Callaghan. She challenged him asking did fg get it wrong on putting their emphasis too much on Brexit. Am sure he’s only following orders from fg hq, but to see him trying to justify the emphasis on brexit. He then said something odd mentioning about Ryan going on holidays during the campaign and then he says rumour has it Ryan might get elected. I sincerely hope that turn out to be crap.

In fai4ness to Hayden, mo also mentioned about the disappointing results for the greens to cuffe. He also tried to justify their stance.

Note: All above is purely based on exit polls.

Damien360

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Just seen MH on RTE & being challenged by Miriam O’Callaghan. She challenged him asking did fg get it wrong on putting their emphasis too much on Brexit. Am sure he’s only following orders from fg hq, but to see him trying to justify the emphasis on brexit. He then said something odd mentioning about Ryan going on holidays during the campaign and then he says rumour has it Ryan might get elected. I sincerely hope that turn out to be crap.

In fai4ness to Hayden, mo also mentioned about the disappointing results for the greens to cuffe. He also tried to justify their stance.

Note: All above is purely based on exit polls.

The piece about Ryan getting a seat is based on early tallies as boxes are opened that SF are likely to get 2 seats in Kildare. So it would appear that despite Ryan not bothering to turn up, the party name will carry their candidates.

I honestly think this will be a very short government and we will be back voting within a year due to infighting. Rainbow coalition with Dick Spring comes to mind.

Roadtoad

Any goss, hunches or semi-informed opinion from Punchestown?

yaboya1

Sinn Fein predicted to top poll.
The stellar campaigning in Kildare South obviously worked......

long_b

https://mobile.twitter.com/RTEkildareSOUTH

SF topping poll with 50% tallied

Ken.

So based on this election alone it seems that by fücking off and not bothering people knocking on their doors is the way to get elected. Can only be a matter of time before a candidate gets elected purely from campaigning on the likes of facebook,twitter etc exclusively.

Breakerz

45% of ballots... The story so far:

SF Ryan, P 21.7%
FG Heyden, M 17.1%
LAB Wall, M 15.5%
FF O'loughlin, F 11.7%
IND Berry, C 9.4%
FF Doyle, S 9.1%
IND McLoughlin-Healty 6.6%
GP Maher, R 3.3%
SD Hayden, L 2.7%
AON Mhic Gib, A 1.5%
RI UiBhroin, R 1.4%

Looks very tight. PR almost a certainty on those numbers. As I predicted FF have massively overestimated their vote but FOL should still get in on transfers.

Almost a certainty to be PR, MH and FOL if there isn't a massive divergence from those trends. Although I suspect there is a large bias from certain stations in those numbers. SD and FOL are very close which could spell disaster for FF... Interesting hours ahead.

WishUWereHere

Damien360 wrote: »

The piece about Ryan getting a seat is based on early tallies as boxes are opened that SF are likely to get 2 seats in Kildare. So it would appear that despite Ryan not bothering to turn up, the party name will carry their candidates.

I honestly think this will be a very short government and we will be back voting within a year due to infighting. Rainbow coalition with Dick Spring comes to mind.

I think you are being generous Damien - I think we will be back voting by summer.

Just seen on RTE that Ryan is topping the poll, albeit being early. Really wonder what goes on in people’s thinking? A candidate who didn’t bother their butts to show up and canvass? Nor rock up at hustings? Crazy thinking!!!

silver2020

Big number for FOL to get on transfers and she mightn't get them.

Wall has had a very good day. He'll get a lot of transfer from Berry and from the smaller left candidates.

Might be the first time no FF candidate is elected in Kildare south leaving O'Feraghail on his own

Calhoun

Don't underestimate the protest vote, concern should be with SF as they have to turn that protest vote into something real

Breakerz

SF Ryan, P 21.8%
FG Heyden, M 17.1%
LAB Wall, M 12.4%
FF O’Loughlin, F 12.2%
IND Berry, C 910.6%
FF Doyle, S 8.3%
IND McLoughlin-Healy 8.0%
GP Maher, R 3.5%
SD Hayden, L 3.0%
AON Mhic Gib, A 1.6%
RI UiBhroin, S PBP 1.4%

93 out of 131. Could still be big changes but it's Wall v FOL for the past seat.

StupidLikeAFox

Suzanne Doyle's transfers to push FOL out in front I'd say

Eric Cartman

Nosnon wrote: »

So based on this election alone it seems that by fücking off and not bothering people knocking on their doors is the way to get elected. Can only be a matter of time before a candidate gets elected purely from campaigning on the likes of facebook,twitter etc exclusively.

Its a great way to get the left vote alright, too afraid to answer the door incase its debt collectors, to pissed to go outside during the day and see posters, but 18 hours a day glued to a screen. Should put ads on sky sports racing too, get them all in.

Ken.

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Its a great way to get the left vote alright, too afraid to answer the door incase its debt collectors, to pissed to go outside during the day and see posters, but 18 hours a day glued to a screen. Should put ads on sky sports racing too, get them all in.

Candidate pictures on the cheap cans of beer from Lidl/Aldi.

aodh_rua

Final tally....

SF Ryan, P 21.4%
FG Heydon, M 17.3%
LAB Wall, M 12.8%
FF O’Loughlin, F 12.7%
IND Berry, C 11.2%
IND McLoughlin-Healy 7.8%
FF Doyle, S 7.6%
GP Maher, R 3.5%
SD Hayden, L 2.9%
AON Mhic Gib, A 1.5%
RI UiBhroin, S PBP 1.3%

WishUWereHere

aodh_rua wrote: »

Final tally....

SF Ryan, P 21.4%
FG Heydon, M 17.3%
LAB Wall, M 12.8%
FF O’Loughlin, F 12.7%
IND Berry, C 11.2%
IND McLoughlin-Healy 7.8%
FF Doyle, S 7.6%
GP Maher, R 3.5%
SD Hayden, L 2.9%
AON Mhic Gib, A 1.5%
RI UiBhroin, S PBP 1.3%

Aodh_Rua, what's Your interpretation of this? For me, it beggars belief that a prospective TD Does a bunk & goes on holiday ( no matter how much/little support she has) and tops the polls? What happens when DE is up & running, and it clashes with some pre-arranged holiday? I am amazed the people still voted for her after the respect she showed by her non appearance at any meetings.

Looks like her, MH & ( guessing on transfers ) FOL.

Damien360

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Its a great way to get the left vote alright, too afraid to answer the door incase its debt collectors, to pissed to go outside during the day and see posters, but 18 hours a day glued to a screen. Should put ads on sky sports racing too, get them all in.

I think you are being a little unfair. Yes the SF core is in the pyjamas people but based on the national level of almost 20% of votes achieved, they obviously picked up more than those people.

This is a protest vote. It’s our Trump moment, looking for anyone but the usuals. A national feeling that putting back in the same gang changes nothing. What people want changed is a different matter because all of the SF manifesto comes with big costs. I’m not sure workers have an appetite for more taxes. Pyjama gang don’t care.

In my line of work, I visit a great deal of state and semi-state sites. There is a very strong SF vote in many of these places and even a very republican hardline outlook. By and large the people in there I meet are middle of the road, not struggling by any stretch and comfortable in knowing they have jobs for life and a handy pension when it’s all over. Not people I would think SF would see as their core.

fergus1001

WishUWereHere wrote:

Looks like her, MH & ( guessing on transfers ) FOL.

dont be so sure alot of left votes to be distributed could pull Mark Wall up

Ash.J.Williams

Calhoun wrote: »

Don't underestimate the protest vote, concern should be with SF as they have to turn that protest vote into something real

There was no protest vote

Eric Cartman

Nosnon wrote: »

Candidate pictures on the cheap cans of beer from Lidl/Aldi.

"8 cans of gallahad for the price of 6, brought to you by sinn fein" Athy would be alight singing RA tunes for weeks.

Eric Cartman

Damien360 wrote: »

I think you are being a little unfair. Yes the SF core is in the pyjamas people but based on the national level of almost 20% of votes achieved, they obviously picked up more than those people.

This is a protest vote. It’s our Trump moment, looking for anyone but the usuals. A national feeling that putting back in the same gang changes nothing. What people want changed is a different matter because all of the SF manifesto comes with big costs. I’m not sure workers have an appetite for more taxes. Pyjama gang don’t care.

In my line of work, I visit a great deal of state and semi-state sites. There is a very strong SF vote in many of these places and even a very republican hardline outlook. By and large the people in there I meet are middle of the road, not struggling by any stretch and comfortable in knowing they have jobs for life and a handy pension when it’s all over. Not people I would think SF would see as their core.

free houses and pension ages sold a pipe dream to the public sector workers and their kids who are now 25-35 years of age and cant afford to live in dublin with the aul pair.

Roadtoad

How long will Punchestown stay open tonight? I've family stuff until about midnight but would like to attend then.

aodh_rua

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Aodh_Rua, what's Your interpretation of this? For me, it beggars belief that a prospective TD Does a bunk & goes on holiday ( no matter how much/little support she has) and tops the polls? What happens when DE is up & running, and it clashes with some pre-arranged holiday? I am amazed the people still voted for her after the respect she showed by her non appearance at any meetings.

Looks like her, MH & ( guessing on transfers ) FOL.

I spoke to some of the FF tally people. Apparently people were complaining at the polling stations because they thought they could vote for Mary Lou. I congratulate Patricia Ryan, but this a party vote, so she could have stayed on her holiday and still romped home.

aodh_rua

Roadtoad wrote: »

How long will Punchestown stay open tonight? I've family stuff until about midnight but would like to attend then.

Looks like they're going to stop by 11, and restart in the morning.

jasonb

Stupid question, but I see the Green Party candidate was 'excluded' from the count and his votes won't be transferred. Elsewhere I've seen candidates eliminated and their votes transferred. What's the difference between Excluded and Eliminated and what circumstances cause one or the other? Thanks!

L1011

jasonb wrote: »

Stupid question, but I see the Green Party candidate was 'excluded' from the count and his votes won't be transferred. Elsewhere I've seen candidates eliminated and their votes transferred. What's the difference between Excluded and Eliminated and what circumstances cause one or the other? Thanks!

There is no difference

Surpluses and elimination totals are transferred when they can make a difference to the results, which is not always immediately.

However, I can only assume that is RTE making a mistake as nobody else has been eliminated, there is no surplus and his are the only votes to transfer? I am quite tired at this stage having been up at at a godawful hour to get to Punchestown through the storm though!

L1011

His votes were transferred, so RTE - who seem to have been the only ones saying that - were wrong.

Doyle out, you would assume will transfer mostly to FiFF with probably nobody elected and Findo (going to use those names from up-thread) out next - but that's tomorrow morning.

Ken.

Hey L1011. Can you try answer a question for me about distributing votes?