GE2020 Kildare South

WishUWereHere

aodh_rua wrote: »

I might an immediate second election - longer term will be more interesting with four seats, and with FOL odds on to be in the Seanad in the meantime.

A snap second election would probably mean SOF remaining CC, and being returned automatically. He may choose to go again on Thursday if it looks like no government will be formed - FF wouldn't have much leverage to stop him.

How does that work AR? Have FF any leverage over Seán in this matter?

Edit: I firmly believe there will be another election before the end of May. Reading this onlyconvinces me more:

https://www.thejournal.ie/government-formation-5008584-Feb2020/

Orion

aodh_rua wrote: »

I might an immediate second election - longer term will be more interesting with four seats, and with FOL odds on to be in the Seanad in the meantime.

A snap second election would probably mean SOF remaining CC, and being returned automatically. He may choose to go again on Thursday if it looks like no government will be formed - FF wouldn't have much leverage to stop him.

CC is elected next Thursday regardless of Govt. Has to be a chair before anyone can even be nominated for Taoiseach. And there can't be an election until at least then.

SOF is looking for the position again but no guarantee. In fact with only 38 seats FF may not want him to have it. Put them on equal footing with SF.

aodh_rua

WishUWereHere wrote: »

How does that work AR? Have FF any leverage over Seán in this matter?

Edit: I firmly believe there will be another election before the end of May. Reading this onlyconvinces me more:

https://www.thejournal.ie/government-formation-5008584-Feb2020/

I think the rules on CC elections changed last time to be more like Westminster. It used to be a whipped vote, so the incoming government got a final say - it went to secret ballot last time.

FF need him back, but it's pretty clear he wants to stay and would probably get re-elected on Thursday, thus keeping us to 3 seats.

The boundary and seats won't get reviewed until after next year's census.

Calhoun

aodh_rua wrote: »

I think the rules on CC elections changed last time to be more like Westminster. It used to be a whipped vote, so the incoming government got a final say - it went to secret ballot last time.

FF need him back, but it's pretty clear he wants to stay and would probably get re-elected on Thursday, thus keeping us to 3 seats.

The boundary and seats won't get reviewed until after next year's census.

Boundary needs to go back to what it was before for the likes of Port ect, pain in the arse been caught between two areas.

L1011

Won't be any boundary changes until mid 2022 at the earliest. Census will come out and show the country is short 4-6 seats under the constitution and the bulk of that growth is GDA so there could be a 5th seat for an expanded KN and a return to the county boundaries for a 4 seat KS.

Calhoun

L1011 wrote: »

Won't be any boundary changes until mid 2022 at the earliest. Census will come out and show the country is short 4-6 seats under the constitution and the bulk of that growth is GDA so there could be a 5th seat for an expanded KN and a return to the county boundaries for a 4 seat KS.

Awwww , the only advantage i suppose is it forced me to do alllot more digging into who i was voting for now than i ever have before.

I suppose its the stupidity of the Irish system, TD's are supposed to be more national but as we suck allot of power from the local Councillors they are more local. If i want anything done it has to happen in Laois.

ELM327

Delighted to see FOL out, I voted her #1 last time and didnt at all this time. Her facebook posts in the leadup to the GE were criticizing the government on issues her and her party were enabling!

I voted FG #1 giving transfers to Berry and to the other FF candidate.

aodh_rua

Cathal Berry seems to have disappeared. No social media or web updates since the count.

He should be everywhere pushing for Defence Forces pay while he has leverage. Once a Taoiseach is elected, he's just another back bencher. Maybe he's working away in the background, or maybe he saw a chance to get elected, but hadn't really thought about what he would do afterwards.

I also think his new constituents are entitled to know his thoughts on government formation.

a very cool kid

aodh_rua wrote: »

Cathal Berry seems to have disappeared. No social media or web updates since the count.

He should be everywhere pushing for Defence Forces pay while he has leverage. Once a Taoiseach is elected, he's just another back bencher. Maybe he's working away in the background, or maybe he saw a chance to get elected, but hadn't really thought about what he would do afterwards.

I also think his new constituents are entitled to know his thoughts on government formation.

Well he got his ego boost, what did you think would happen?

Orion

aodh_rua wrote: »

Cathal Berry seems to have disappeared. No social media or web updates since the count.

He should be everywhere pushing for Defence Forces pay while he has leverage. Once a Taoiseach is elected, he's just another back bencher. Maybe he's working away in the background, or maybe he saw a chance to get elected, but hadn't really thought about what he would do afterwards.

I also think his new constituents are entitled to know his thoughts on government formation.

The Dail doesn't meet until tomorrow. What exactly do you expect him to do before then?

aodh_rua

The most valuable and influential period for an independent TD is the period up to the election of a Taoiseach. The Dáil's first meeting is an endpoint on that phase (although there's little chance of a successful nomination today), and not the beginning.

I see he is back on Twitter this morning, and has been focused on opening offices and meeting local groups - but in this crucial phase, I think his campaign promises would be better served by trying to extract concessions for government formation.

A more experienced politician would have been focussed on that, and would have already had knowledge on local groups.

a very cool kid

aodh_rua wrote: »

The most valuable and influential period for an independent TD is the period up to the election of a Taoiseach. The Dáil's first meeting is an endpoint on that phase (although there's little chance of a successful nomination today), and not the beginning.

I see he is back on Twitter this morning, and has been focused on opening offices and meeting local groups - but in this crucial phase, I think his campaign promises would be better served by trying to extract concessions for government formation.

A more experienced politician would have been focussed on that, and would have already had knowledge on local groups.

Well this just goes to show what a waste of time most independent TDs are. In the vast majority of cases these unaligned guys are as big a waste of a vote as the People before Profit etc.

L1011

SOF back as Ceann Comhairle, so still 3 seats for any predictions for a potential second go this year

ELM327

Handy aul gig that CC spot, elected once as TD and you stay elected!

aodh_rua

Berry tipped his hand at the very first opportunity and gave his vote for Taoiseach to Michéal Martin. Perhaps he wants to be the new Stephen Donnelly and end up in FF.

aodh_rua

According to Gavin Reilly from Virgin Media News, he has also helped to form a technical group in the Dáil with among others Verona Murphy (kicked from FG for racist dog whistle tactics during the Wexford by-election), Peadar Toibin (kicked out of SF for his pro-life views) and Michael Lowry (no intro needed). All of the returning TDs in the group voted against repealing the 8th.

As someone posted on Twitter earlier, if Kildare South wanted an FF Taoiseach, they had two candidates to choose from and rejected both. Add to that the caucus he has enabled that gives platform and committee chair opportunities to the likes of the above and you'd have to question if this is what the public voted for.

WishUWereHere

Just watching TWIP. Heydon is on it. Louise O'Reilly has just wiped the floor with him.

Somebody PLEASE explain to me just how we re-elected MH? He is an embarrassment to Kildare South.

a very cool kid

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Just watching TWIP. Heydon is on it. Louise O'Reilly has just wiped the floor with him.

Somebody PLEASE explain to me just how we re-elected MH? He is an embarrassment to Kildare South.

Louise needs to get her act together, she's in "the biggest party that won the election" not good enough to just attack Martin Heydon. Taking cheap shots won't take people off trollies.

WishUWereHere

a very cool kid wrote: »

Louise needs to get her act together, she's in "the biggest party that won the election" not good enough to just attack Martin Heydon. Taking cheap shots won't take people off trollies.

True, and what you say about LO'R goes for most of the elected shinners too.

But I also think she did wipe the floor with MH. He also tried throwing accusations around, when they ALL ought to be united in fighting theis bloody virus, which seems to becoming more and more prevalent.

L1011

FiFF and Mark Wall now both elected to the Seanad, may cancel out any potential boost it gives either of them individually but ensures both can work full time on trying to get elected next time out.

WishUWereHere

L1011 wrote: »

FiFF and Mark Wall now both elected to the Seanad, may cancel out any potential boost it gives either of them individually but ensures both can work full time on trying to get elected next time out.

Well, I'm a labour supporter all my adult life ( am in my 60's) and after they just elected kelly as their new leader, it just ( for me ) puts the final nail in the coffin about EVER returning to the labour fold.

So, not sure what, if any, benefit MW will bring to South Kildare, that's my interpretation anyhow.