General Election TV debates

Plumbthedepths

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Neither will happen. Martin will first look to put together a 'soft left' coalition with the support of Greens, Labour etc. If the numbers are not there for that, and that should become clear within a matter of days, he will quickly seek the support of FG to form a minority government. No reason for "a prolonged period of political instability"...

You mean Martin despite being adamant he would not enter into a C and S with FG will do just that. Poor Eoghan will be disappointed as he claimed MM would not lie.
There might be no reason for instability, but it will be what will be the likely outcome unless differences and egos are put aside.

Plumbthedepths

quokula wrote: »

The vote hasn't happened yet. The best option for stability is for the majority of the country to vote for competent parties who don't have a track record of bringing down the government where they were voted in.

Back in the real world.......

Loafing Oaf

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

You mean Martin despite being adamant he would not enter into a C and S with FG will do just that.

No he isn't

So with that alliance not an option, would he go into confidence and supply with Fine Gael if Fine Gael were in opposition?

"I haven't ruled that out."

Borgo

Sky News Everyone

Plumbthedepths

Borgo wrote: »

Sky News Everyone

Paul Schofield is gay, so what. Hope he finds happiness can't be healthy hiding it for almost a lifetime.

Borgo

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Paul Schofield is gay, so what. Hope he finds happiness can't be healthy hiding it for almost a lifetime.

Hahaha go away outta that they have our shouting match on

Plumbthedepths

Borgo wrote: »

Hahaha go away outta that they have our shouting match on

Sky news mentioning there is an election in Ireland and referencing the issues. Have I missed something?
Although I saw that a British journalist was shocked at the behaviour during the three way debate. They were surprised the political leaders were aware of detail, polite and willing to apologise for getting it wrong.

Borgo

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Sky news mentioning there is an election in Ireland and referencing the issues. Have I missed something?
Although I saw that a British journalist was shocked at the behaviour during the three way debate. They were surprised the political leaders were aware of detail, polite and willing to apologise for getting it wrong.

Adam Boultons All Out Politics is Live from Dublin with an Irish Election Special Debate. Thats basically it.

Plumbthedepths

Borgo wrote: »

Adam Boultons All Out Politics is Live from Dublin with an Irish Election Special Debate. Thats basically it.

Ok.

Idbatterim

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

John calling it as it looks. FF and FG may have no choice but to merge or break the taboo and talk to SF.
Lots of external problems on the way, a prolonged period of political instability is the last thing the country needs.


https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/instability-beckons-as-one-election-could-well-lead-to-another-and-maybe-even-a-third-38934740.html

FFG merging isnt even a remote possiblity and I agree this country needs stable government, but its FFG who themselves have been in power for decades, that have brought us to this point.

When over the next week, we get our new confidence and supply FFG government, the waffle, talking and bull**** has to stop. They need to deliver results!

FrancieBrady

McMurphy wrote: »

Tbf blanch you've been predicting their demise since as far back as I've been interacting with you on this site, and now you're on here at the edge of your seat after witnessing their surge in the polls pleading for people not to vote for them. That's some irony.

Touch of the Jim 'Hunt with the hounds and run with the foxes' Callaghan about blanch. He's even betting on SF being in government.

Plumbthedepths

Turning on themselves before a vote is cast.


https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/a-fking-disaster-fine-gael-source-blasts-d4-boys-as-party-set-to-lose-15-seats-980300.html

realdanbreen

Just curious how this works. Lets say the quota in Limerick is 10001. Willie o dea gets 20000 and is elected with a surplus of 10k.my query is which of the 20k votes he got is distributed? How do they know which ones to select?

Idbatterim

realdanbreen wrote: »

Just curious how this works. Lets say the quota in Limerick is 10001. Willie o dea gets 20000 and is elected with a surplus of 10k.my query is which of the 20k votes he got is distributed? How do they know which ones to select?

does willie o'dea get a vote from anyone other than pensioners?

FrancieBrady

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Turning on themselves before a vote is cast.


https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/a-fking-disaster-fine-gael-source-blasts-d4-boys-as-party-set-to-lose-15-seats-980300.html

Regina was particularly vitriolic on the SO'R this AM. I think she sees the writing on the wall.
I think Jim O'Callaghan's predicament is funny rather than a serious one...but she was very impassioned trying to wring something out of it.

McMurphy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Regina was particularly vitriolic on the SO'R this AM. I think she sees the writing on the wall.
I think Jim O'Callaghan's predicament is funny rather than a serious one...but she was very impassioned trying to wring something out of it.

Can this be listened back to Francie?

Plumbthedepths

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Regina was particularly vitriolic on the SO'R this AM. I think she sees the writing on the wall.
I think Jim O'Callaghan's predicament is funny rather than a serious one...but she was very impassioned trying to wring something out of it.

Missed it, she's gone Helen will be elected ahead of her but even that's not guaranteed

FrancieBrady

McMurphy wrote: »

Can this be listened back to Francie?

I have two radios going here. I think it was on S0'R.

Yes it was. Because I was marveling at the fact that he obviously spoke to O'Rourke on the phone from the Newstalk studio. He was on Pat Kenny with Eoin O'Broin immediately after.

Suckit

McMurphy wrote: »

Can this be listened back to Francie?

It will be available later in the archives - https://www.rte.ie/radio1/today-with-sean-o-rourke/

realdanbreen

realdanbreen wrote: »

Just curious how this works. Lets say the quota in Limerick is 10001. Willie o dea gets 20000 and is elected with a surplus of 10k.my query is which of the 20k votes he got is distributed? How do they know which ones to select?

I guess nobody here has a clue ?

nkl12xtw5goz70

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Jeez, Ruth Coppinger is on a different planet. I’d never seen her on an election debate before.

I enjoyed her deer-in-headlights reaction when asked whether People Before Profit's plans to nationalize the construction industry would involve taking every small building firm into state ownership.

Joe_ Public

realdanbreen wrote: »

I guess nobody here has a clue ?

In that example, all of O'Deas 20k votes would be reexamined and a % of his 10k surplus redistributed to each candidate on the basis of second preference indicated. Thats my understanding of it anyway.

KAMG

realdanbreen wrote: »

Just curious how this works. Lets say the quota in Limerick is 10001. Willie o dea gets 20000 and is elected with a surplus of 10k.my query is which of the 20k votes he got is distributed? How do they know which ones to select?

Its works as follows:

All Willie's 20,000 votes are gone through after he gets elected on first count. Any votes which only have number 1 for Willie are non transferrable. Number 2s then are taken into account and they are then put into different bundles based on this. So say candidate A gets 5,000 of the number 2s from Willie, in count 2, this candidate picks up another 2,500 votes. (5,000/20,000) multiply by the surplus of 10,000.

Hope this helps.

Ricky Warm Purse

Ricky Warm Purse wrote: »

I enjoyed her deer-in-headlights reaction when asked whether People Before Profit's plans to nationalize the construction industry would involve taking every small building firm into state ownership.

Chip shops will be ok

FrancieBrady

realdanbreen wrote: »

I guess nobody here has a clue ?

Google is your friend Dan

If a candidate receives more than the quota, their surplus ballot papers are transferred to the remaining candidates.

The surplus is transferred in proportion to how many second (or lower) preferences the other candidates received in the elected candidate’s vote. If the second preference candidate on any ballot is either already elected or has been eliminated, then the third preference is used, and so on.

If a candidate is elected at the first count, then all of their votes are used to calculate the proportion of surplus that will be given to each candidate.

For example:

Candidate A receives 6000 first preference votes at the first count. The quota is 5000. A is elected with a surplus of 1000 votes.

Out of A’s 6000 total votes, 30% gave their second preference to B, and 20% gave their second preference to C.

B receives 300 votes (30% of 1000) and C receives 200 votes (20% of 1000)

Where a candidate reaches the quota after the first count, only the ballot papers that brought them over the quota are examined (the votes that were transferred from the previous count).

If 2 or more candidates are elected at the same time, then the surplus of the candidate with the largest vote is distributed first.

nkl12xtw5goz70

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Chip shops will be ok

I'm just imagining An Chip Shop Náisiúnta.

— "Can I have a fish supper with a side of curry sauce and a can of Fanta?"

— "That'll be €47, payable in advance. Of course, there's a six-week waiting list. You can collect your order on March 20th, unless of course the fish-batterers union goes on strike, in which case it might be sometime in May."

charlie14

Joe_ Public wrote: »

In that example, all of O'Deas 20k votes would be reexamined and a % of his 10k surplus redistributed to each candidate on the basis of second preference indicated. Thats my understanding of it anyway.

I don`t think they would re-examine all of O`Deas 20K votes.

Just the last bundle counted, and from that determine the %,of his 10K surplus to be redistributed to each candidate.

Other than that, my understanding is the same

Water John

May do that if a candidate goes over the quota on the first count but say you go 70 votes over the quota in Count 4, they do not go back through all your votes to get a % they simply pick random 70 and redistribute.

Joe_ Public

Water John wrote: »

May do that if a candidate goes over the quota on the first count but say you go 70 votes over the quota in Count 4, they do not go back through all your votes to get a % they simply pick random 70 and redistribute.

Yeah, in the ODea example given, it was obviously on the basis of first count and second count was distribution of his surplus.

If a candidate went over the quota on a subsequent count and had a surplus to be distributed, only the votes that exceeded that quota would be rechecked. In your example, it would be the 70 the candidate picked up on the previous count.

Sir Oxman

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058050935

Interesting thread on our system here.