The Walking Dead 2: Game Thread

Barbara WW

Wendy WW wrote: »

Barbra I cant make any sense of your logic at all so i didnt respond to it, it makes no sense to ke at least, i really cant see the logic in it,

If we had a peeked Walker would you say to ignore it and leave it to the wolfs?

Or 50% shot at one would you say to forget about it?

Like we are much more likely to lynch a villager hunting a wolf only tonight

Yes

I know it sounds mad but they are not the immediate threat to us.
They are a much bigger threat to the wolves.
We know theres a walker in that group, thats not going to change between now and tomorrow nite. What might change is the number of people in that group.

Barbara WW

@Wendy - put yourself in these two scenarios

1 - you're a wolf - whats your optimum lynch result tonite?
2 - you're a walker - whats your optimum lynch result tonite?

Phil WW

Wendy WW wrote: »

So Rick sent himself out over the wall a bold play.

I'll go out to any place if people want me to

Just stop

Abigail WW

Gertrude WW wrote: »

If we go outside those 4 would we not have a higher chance of hitting a villager?

Chances are the ratio of wolves to villagers is greater than 1:4; So I go as far as saying the odds are better outside of the golden 4.

Wendy WW

Abigail WW wrote: »

Chances are the ratio of wolves to villagers is greater than 1:4; So I go as far as saying the odds are better outside of the golden 4.

Show us your numbers on that

Abigail WW

Wendy WW wrote: »

Not a big fan of abi pushing so hard against this

I'm team village. The suggested plan means I've a 25% chance of being lynched. Why wouldn't I try stop this?

P.S. I'm not a big fan of your shady posts.

Wendy WW

Barbara WW wrote: »

@Wendy - put yourself in these two scenarios

1 - you're a wolf - whats your optimum lynch result tonite?
2 - you're a walker - whats your optimum lynch result tonite?

Wolf, villager hopefully power roled, as there are more villagers than walkers to kill to get to win conditions.

Walker, dont care not a Walker, just need to get to parity with wolfs and villager to win.

Abigail WW

Wendy WW wrote: »

Show us your numbers on that

OK no problem.

23 players to begin. The Wolf Team would have at least 4 (at a very minimum). Walkers, I don't know but lets say 3.
So from the original 23 lets say 16 are NRV.

3 NRVs are now dead. So we've 13 left.
Ratio Wolves to Villagers is therefore 4:13 or 1:3.25.


So if we vote someone from the full group chances of hitting a wolf are 1:3.25, if we stick with the 4 it'll be 1:4

Gertrude WW

Abigail WW wrote: »

Chances are the ratio of wolves to villagers is greater than 1:4; So I go as far as saying the odds are better outside of the golden 4.

Do you know how many wolves there are?

Wendy WW

Just voted for abi, I'll be back for the destination thingy

Winifred WW

Abigail WW wrote: »

OK no problem.

23 players to begin. The Wolf Team would have at least 4 (at a very minimum). Walkers, I don't know but lets say 3.
So from the original 23 lets say 16 are NRV.

3 NRVs are now dead. So we've 13 left.
Ratio Wolves to Villagers is therefore 4:13 or 1:3.25.


So if we vote someone from the full group chances of hitting a wolf are 1:3.25, if we stick with the 4 it'll be 1:4

So by choosing 4 wolves and 3 walkers your ratio just happens to come in below 1 in 4. Quite convenient.

And what if there is another walker of wolf/wolves in the 4?

Barbara WW

Wendy WW wrote: »

Wolf, villager hopefully power roled, as there are more villagers than walkers to kill to get to win conditions.

Walker, dont care not a Walker, just need to get to parity with wolfs and villager to win.

OK, I can buy that and I do think Abbi is the most likely to be a walker

BUT shes not going anywhere and shes not doing any harm

I also think a walker wants to get a wolf, badly wants to lynch a wolf

Ewan WW

Abigail WW wrote: »

OK no problem.

23 players to begin. The Wolf Team would have at least 4 (at a very minimum). Walkers, I don't know but lets say 3.
So from the original 23 lets say 16 are NRV.

3 NRVs are now dead. So we've 13 left.
Ratio Wolves to Villagers is therefore 4:13 or 1:3.25.


So if we vote someone from the full group chances of hitting a wolf are 1:3.25, if we stick with the 4 it'll be 1:4

There’s 4 dead

Riona - Walker Hunter
Patrick - NRV
Angus - App Seer
Derry - NRV

Liam WW

I'll make it easier for you all. I'm good so no need to lynch me. Build that into your calculations.

Barbara WW

Phil WW wrote: »

Just stop

@Phil - whats your opinion on going after walkers v wolves?

Gertrude WW

Liam WW wrote: »

I'll make it easier for you all. I'm good so no need to lynch me. Build that into your calculations.

Thanks for clearing that up

Liam WW

Gertrude WW wrote: »

Thanks for clearing that up

No problem, just thought I'd make it easier for you all

Clodagh WW

Wendy WW wrote: »

I had wondered about booby traps and wondered if they had to be laid by wolves out and about, Abi was ringing my suss bell yesterday a little jot being around to pick locations

Interesting comment Wendy. This is the only comment from you to abi I can see

Wendy WW wrote: »

You must be confident of being alive in the morning so

You ended up voting for me however. Apparently based on gut feeling only. Maybe you can give me a bit more on your abi thoughts for last night?

Clodagh WW

Barbara WW wrote: »

We will have at least a 1 in 6 shot every morning after a conversion. I do not think its a good plan to go after the walkers, if we ignore them then we will force the wolves hand in going after them.

I know its risky and that we're screwed if the walkers get too strong but realistically the walkers cannot kill us the wolves can. We are down to 18 people so it could be
3/4 wolves
2 walkers
12/13 villagers

By the time the next conversion comes that could be
3/4 wolves
2 walkers
6/7 villagers

Even if we got both walkers we're looking at
3/4 wolves
8/9 villagers


Getting walkers does nothing for us at this stage.

We really don’t. Rick getting killed ****ed up any quarantine plans I’m afraid. Best hope on the walkers is that the original walker is in the 4 and risk before conversion left some breadcrumbs. Might be in both village and wolves interests to check that out since walkers in the general population will very quickly get out of hand

Abigail WW

Ewan WW wrote: »

There’s 4 dead

Riona - Walker Hunter
Patrick - NRV
Angus - App Seer
Derry - NRV

Yeah I know but the Walker wasn't needed for the ratio.

Barbara WW

Clodagh WW wrote: »

We really don’t. Rick getting killed ****ed up any quarantine plans I’m afraid. Best hope on the walkers is that the original walker is in the 4 and risk before conversion left some breadcrumbs. Might be in both village and wolves interests to check that out since walkers in the general population will very quickly get out of hand

Theres guaranteed to be a walker in those 4, thats all we're sure of and like I say they are going nowhere. Lets not make this easy on the wolves

Clodagh WW

Mary WW wrote: »

Going on an adventure? You ok with that?

Are we ok with everyone doing sold runs without any village discussion of consensus?

Sure, what could possibly go wrong with that.....

Liam WW

So 23 at the start - guessing 4 wolves and a walker. I'm guessing four wolves because the walkers numbers need to gain parity with wolves and villagers. Only three wolves means that they'd pretty much all have to survive till the end to win (or remove the one walker early).

Anyway we're down to 19 now -

13 goodies v 4 wolves v 2 walkers

We need to get every walker to stop them converting people so we've collectively got one munch and two lynches to do it. I reckon the second munch happening at the same time as the conversion would mean the conversion happens as the original walker dies but who knows. So if we only get one (or none) of them we'll have three walkers on Thursday morning.

At that stage we may have killed one wolf, a walker and lost 3 villagers. Which would bring us to (assuming the walkers convert a villager).

10 goodies v 3 wolves v 2 walkers

I know the above has a number of assumptions in it, and we might get lucky and wipe out the walkers before they get a chance to convert but I view the walkers as the greater threat and may be the easier to identify in future as they're the only roles in the game who have nothing to gain from hiding who they are. Once a walker is converted I'm guessing they'll be telling each other who they are. That does lead me to an interesting thought that if they are mindless they may not have a backroom (but surely they'd have to to get orders in).

Abigail WW

Winifred WW wrote: »

So by choosing 4 wolves and 3 walkers your ratio just happens to come in below 1 in 4. Quite convenient.

Well how many do you think there are Wini? You think that 4 wolves outa 23 players is high? Have you played this game before?

Phil WW

Barbara WW wrote: »

@Phil - whats your opinion on going after walkers v wolves?

Who to lynch ? The walkers are more powerful than the wolves we know that one of the group from last night is a walker so I reckon we kill in that group.
How many are left ?

We lynch one there is a vig who can kill one and the wolves can eat one then we reassess tomorrow.

If the walkers take one wolf near the end the wolves to walker ratio changes by 2 so the wolves would be mad not to help us kill the walkers.

I'm at work can someone list the remaining of the six last night please.

Winifred WW

Abigail WW wrote: »

Well how many do you think there are Wini? You think that 4 wolves outa 23 players is high? Have you played this game before?

Yep have played a few.

Could be 3/4/5 wolves. 4 is a fair shout but I think its wrong to just assume that is correct. We simply do not know.

As for the walkers, and as I said yesterday, we have absolutely no idea how many there were starting out.

So my point in relation to your ratio was that the numbers of walkers and wolves you chose was essentially arbitrary although I do concede that it could be one of 3/4 different scenarios. Again we do not KNOW.

What we do know is that there is one walker (and possibly another or a wolf - a point you simply do not seem to acknowledge) in a group of 4 players. Why do all of the other wolves/walkers have to be in the larger group? Because it suits your cucumber drop?

I am going to vote on a scenario that I know to be true tonight. Not on conjecture seeing as weve had a crap start to the game.

Necro

The three scavengers decided to visit the parliament buildings.

They took a look around the deserted chambers, taking turns sitting in the centre chair.



When examining the benches for anything of use they discover a number of brown envelopes wedged under them.
Opening them they discovered large sums of cash.

Nothing else was to be found, though the vending machine had some tasty morsels within for the scavengers to treat themselves.

Barbara WW

Liam WW wrote: »

I reckon the second munch happening at the same time as the conversion would mean the conversion happens as the original walker dies but who knows. So if we only get one (or none) of them we'll have three walkers on Thursday morning.

Hah?

I think there was a conversion overnight, I expect another one on Thursday morning. I think its unrelated to other actions

Phil WW

To those in the four I suggest you make your case as once we hit a walker it would automatically be best to kill in the whole group, this means that if you can help us Id the walker you have no pesky issues like being killed.

Barbara WW