General Election

Squidvicious

Surprised there's no thread on this yet. Dunmoreroader has a post in the Cardiac care thread on the election so I thought that it's about time for the GE/Carlow Kilkenny constituency to have its own thread.

According to Paddy Power betting odds https://www.paddypower.com/politics?tab=irish-constituencies, it looks fairly likely that there will be no change in the constituency - the only doubt is for the last seat with a battle between Funchion and Murnane-O'Connor.

What does everyone else think? Do we need change in Carlow Kilkenny or are we happy with who we have representing us?

road_high

Squidvicious wrote: »

Surprised there's no thread on this yet. Dunmoreroader has a post in the Cardiac care thread on the election so I thought that it's about time for the GE/Carlow Kilkenny constituency to have its own thread.

According to Paddy Power betting odds https://www.paddypower.com/politics?tab=irish-constituencies, it looks fairly likely that there will be no change in the constituency - the only doubt is for the last seat with a battle between Funchion and Murnane-O'Connor.

What does everyone else think? Do we need change in Carlow Kilkenny or are we happy with who we have representing us?

I think they're all pretty dire tbh with zero vision or grand plans for the constituency. I would love to see that Shinner gone, she's atrocious. Very very little going on upstairs and a complete waste of time voting for someone like that.

Squidvicious

road_high wrote: »

I think they're all pretty dire tbh with zero vision or grand plans for the constituency. I would love to see that Shinner gone, she's atrocious. Very very little going on upstairs and a complete waste of time voting for someone like that.

I've heard that about Funchion alright. I suspect, though, that she'll squeeze in. The FF and FG candidates are restricted to campaigning in certain areas of the constituency but the SF candidate will get No.1 votes all over the constituency.
Surprised to see Deering at 1/7. I thought that he might be a bit vulnerable this time out, especially with the FG support down according to the national polls.

road_high

Squidvicious wrote: »

I've heard that about Funchion alright. I suspect, though, that she'll squeeze in. The FF and FG candidates are restricted to campaigning in certain areas of the constituency but the SF candidate will get No.1 votes all over the constituency.
Surprised to see Deering at 1/7. I thought that he might be a bit vulnerable this time out, especially with the FG support down according to the national polls.

The good thing is there are now 0 SF Co cllrs in Carlow or Kilkenny- a total clear out last summer which was a very good thing indeed and won't help her cause very much. And is a further reflection of her ineptidude really.
I can't stand the Murnane one either but would take her any day over Funchion.
What about Denis Hynes? He was a surprise success in the local elections and got a very good good vote on the day.

Mankbag

Yes, dreadful field. JP Phelan has some substance, McGuinness clearly has a brain and Malcolm Noonan has actual policies (agree with them or not), but the rest are almost uniformly awful.

Deering surely vulnerable alright. I reckon there's a third seat here for FF and Murnane O'Connor will take it - but at the expense of Funcheon rather than Deering.

Noonan has too many votes to make up outside of Kilkenny city, even if there is a Green wave. That's an interesting point about Hynes. Hadn't considered it. Maybe Labour still haven't been forgiven by the electorate?

By the way, from a betting point of view the odds are all terrible. Nobody with any sense will go near them.

Squidvicious

road_high wrote: »

The good thing is there are now 0 SF Co cllrs in Carlow or Kilkenny- a total clear out last summer which was a very good thing indeed and won't help her cause very much. And is a further reflection of her ineptidude really.
I can't stand the Murnane one either but would take her any day over Funchion.
What about Denis Hynes? He was a surprise success in the local elections and got a very good good vote on the day.

Well, I hope you're right about Funchion and she doesn't get in!

Don't know a whole lot about Hynes - he's Carlow based while I'm in the far South. I suppose that's one of the issues in this constituency - many of us tend to vote for local candidates as we effectively have 3 or 4 mini-constituencies all in one: Carlow, Sth KK, Nth KK and possibly KK City itself.

road_high

JP phelan has a big presence in Kilkenny and vote despite being south Kilkenny. He has such potential
But is far too lazy and safe. I don’t think there’s the quota for three FF TDs and they certainly don’t deserve three. Murnane was squeezed that way last time as the last FF td has no transfers to get them elected. Yes she was ahead of Deering on no 1s but had no transfers so wasn’t elected. Her campaign team and herself were clearly very dim that they couldn’t see that coming. David Fitzgerald FG had thousands of FG transfers that were never going to her and went en masse to elect Pat Deering

Nokia6230i

There's already a thread on the GE in Carlow forum (but this thread shows how split the constituency is) > https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058045387

Carlow Chamber of Commerce & their other vehicle Love Carlow is pushing for 2 TDs; I'd rather 5 decent ones & I don't mind which side of constituency they come from; I'd happily vote Malcolm Noonan 1.

Sen. Murnane O'Connor isn't that well got outside of the town; indeed her popularity within the town is questionable too, her "achievements" ("She got me a house...") are over-exaggerated & often a load of b******s.

Our other candidates; Angela Ray (Ind.), Pat Deering (FG TD) and & Cllr. Wallace (PBP)

Denis Hynes (Lab.) is South Carlow effectively albeit Goresbridge; his returns from that area & Castlecomer will be worth scrutinising.

Can see it being 3 FF & 2 FG; Pat mightn't be 2nd FG're though.......

Would rather see it as a GP Vote; after that I'm out; I can't vote Wallace as her behaviour on "housing/homeless protests" in Summer 2017 & 2018 was despicable; she'd nothing lined up in 2019 presumably because campaiging kept her busy; I do agree with some of her issues socially but majority of us do; it's just how PB4P go about it that sticks in my craw & also PBFP've jumped on the Green Partys coat-taiils in last few years to make themselves more relevant to electorate.

road_high

I think Hynes is one to watch. No one is talking about him and it was the same in the locals. He polled over 1000 no 1s as a first timer. He’s heavily involved in local soccer clubs- Mick Wallace in Wexford got a lot of his votes this way.
A hell of a lot better than Ms Funchion who presumably took a lot of the traditional Labour voter last time especially in Carlow. Was a desperate mistake electing her and I sincerely hope voters don’t repeat the error this time.

As for Angela Ray? Where does one even start

Squidvicious

https://www.paddypower.com/politics?tab=irish-constituencies
Interesting to see that Funchion is now a firm favourite to take the last seat in the constituency having been behind Murnane O'Connor in the betting when I started this thread. Probably more a factor of SF doing well in the polls than any local news.

road_high

Squidvicious wrote: »

https://www.paddypower.com/politics?tab=irish-constituencies
Interesting to see that Funchion is now a firm favourite to take the last seat in the constituency having been behind Murnane O'Connor in the betting when I started this thread. Probably more a factor of SF doing well in the polls than any local news.

Yes defo the alleged SF factor in the polls rising a sinking ship. She’s an atrocious TD and still will be atrocious if re elected.

lausp

Squidvicious wrote: »

https://www.paddypower.com/politics?tab=irish-constituencies
Interesting to see that Funchion is now a firm favourite to take the last seat in the constituency having been behind Murnane O'Connor in the betting when I started this thread. Probably more a factor of SF doing well in the polls than any local news.

I'd be shocked if Bobby is first elected. McGuiness mops up the votes.

Also interesting to see Deering favourite for the 4th seat, he only just got over the line on transfers last time.

Personally, I think McGuiness, Bobby, JP are all dead certs.

After that I would have it wide open on the last 2 to any of the 4 of Deering, O'Connor, Funchion or Noonan.

It will be interesting to see how Noonan gets on in Carlow, he has good support in Kilkenny.

It will also be interesting to see if transfers help out O'Neill, last time it was pretty obvious that the FG vote was 1-2-3 FG, which doesn't seem to apply as much to FF.

Nokia6230i

Working during GE 2020 link here > https://carlowkilkennyreturningofficer.com/ (Unsure if too late but for future reference; polling station clerks, count staff etc.)

KCLR Live in IT Carlow in morning from 10am-12 Noon; currently 13 out of 14 candidates confirmed to be present; an audience will be in attendance with questions permitted.

KCLR The Farm Show; Matt O'Keeffe will be in the college too asking questions for his show of those who stick around; those who leave or don't answer will surely be noted in this constituency given how the "rurality" is so often referred to.?

KCLRs The Way It Is with Sue Nunn from 6:15-7:15pm is doing 2nd of 3 Thursday Constituency Debates; last week it was Bobby, Helena, Melissa & Patk.; this one & Thursday the 6th will have 5 candidates but who will be on when hasn't been confirmed yet.

robwen

Is Adrienne Wallace a niece of Mick Wallace?

Mankbag

lausp wrote: »

I'd be shocked if Bobby is first elected. McGuiness mops up the votes.

Also interesting to see Deering favourite for the 4th seat, he only just got over the line on transfers last time.

Personally, I think McGuiness, Bobby, JP are all dead certs.

After that I would have it wide open on the last 2 to any of the 4 of Deering, O'Connor, Funchion or Noonan.

It will be interesting to see how Noonan gets on in Carlow, he has good support in Kilkenny.

It will also be interesting to see if transfers help out O'Neill, last time it was pretty obvious that the FG vote was 1-2-3 FG, which doesn't seem to apply as much to FF.

Deering has about 1,500 voters in his area coming back to him who weren't in the constituency last time.

Transfers won't help out O'Neill because he'll be eliminated before Deering.

fits

robwen wrote: »

Is Adrienne Wallace a niece of Mick Wallace?

No.

Mankbag

Funcheon now unbackable. A week is a long time... https://www.paddypower.com/politics?tab=irish-constituencies

PaulKK

Looking at that purely on odds you'd have to say Noonan could even cause an upset and take JPs seat.

I doubt this is how it will play out in reality though.

Not sure if anyone listens to Ivan Yates on newstalk but paddy powers odds are exactly what Yates suggested on his "calling it" podcast for Carlow-Kilkenny.

Squidvicious

PaulKK wrote: »

Looking at that purely on odds you'd have to say Noonan could even cause an upset and take JPs seat.

I doubt this is how it will play out in reality though.

Not sure if anyone listens to Ivan Yates on newstalk but paddy powers odds are exactly what Yates suggested on his "calling it" podcast for Carlow-Kilkenny.

Possibly not a complete coincidence, that:)

The risk for FG is that having 3 candidates will split their now diminished share of the vote. However, you would have to think that their will be at least one seat for them in Kilkenny and that's unlikely to be O'Neill. He's not a certainty, though, by any means.
Carlow will be interesting too. Deering is 7th favourite for a seat, behind Noonan. I reckon it will be a close run thing, though, and Deering will be there or thereabouts.

Mankbag

PaulKK wrote: »

Looking at that purely on odds you'd have to say Noonan could even cause an upset and take JPs seat.

I doubt this is how it will play out in reality though.

Not sure if anyone listens to Ivan Yates on newstalk but paddy powers odds are exactly what Yates suggested on his "calling it" podcast for Carlow-Kilkenny.

Dude: there is NO chance in the wide earthly world that Noonan will take Phelan's seat!

PaulKK

Mankbag wrote: »

Dude: there is NO chance in the wide earthly world that Noonan will take Phelan's seat!

That's why I said it won't happen! I was talking about paddy powers odds.

Will be interesting to see the results nonetheless.

Deskjockey

Mankbag wrote: »

Dude: there is NO chance in the wide earthly world that Noonan will take Phelan's seat!

Delighted to see Malcolm Noonan getting the last seat today.

He got a serious amount of votes transferred from Wallace.. fairly blows a hole in the theory that votes don't transfer between the two counties !! (Although Greens always transfer friendly. )

Bobby Aylward must have been one of the most anonymous politicians in the Dail.

Mankbag

Not a lot of post-election chat here, which is surprising, so I'll have a go.

A really poor showing by JP Phelan considering his profile, even if he was always going to be elected. Deering actually polled quite well considering his party were on 20 per cent nationally.

If Alan Hayes had announced he was running much earlier he might have been in with a shout.

Funchion's surplus elected Noonan via Adrienne Wallace.

A terrible outcome for FF.

Will we be back here in 18 months time?

1984baby

Can’t believe Fuchion got so many 1st preferences. No SF candidates made it through the local elections in KK-CW. She was way down the list on PaddyPower about a week before the election.

robwen

1984baby wrote: »

Can’t believe Fuchion got so many 1st preferences. No SF candidates made it through the local elections in KK-CW. She was way down the list on PaddyPower about a week before the election.

The vote wasn't a personal one for her at all she was dead and buried 2 weeks ago & rightly so she's useless, the Sinn Fein storm swept her in they could have run anyone under the SF banner & got the same result

robwen

Mankbag wrote: »

Not a lot of post-election chat here, which is surprising, so I'll have a go.

A really poor showing by JP Phelan considering his profile, even if he was always going to be elected. Deering actually polled quite well considering his party were on 20 per cent nationally.

If Alan Hayes had announced he was running much earlier he might have been in with a shout.

Funchion's surplus elected Noonan via Adrienne Wallace.

A terrible outcome for FF.

Will we be back here in 18 months time?

FF as they were with 2 seats in the constituency is not exactly a terrible result, FG down from 2 to 1 were the losers. Hayes performed well interesting to see what happens with him now, McGuiness won't be happy with his emergence after just getting shot of Patrick McKee, may try do a deal with him to come under the McG banner for the council elections but there a long way off odds on we see another general election before a local

Cabaal

One thing thats clear is this was a protest vote, it wasn't down to the local candidate or even how much they went out canvassing....as seen in Kildare
https://www.laoistoday.ie/2020/02/03/sinn-fein-candidate-on-holidays-during-closing-week-of-election-campaign/

Sinn Féin candidate on holidays during closing week of election campaign

A Sinn Féin candidate in the Kildare South constituency, which now takes in Portarlington, Killenard and Ballybrittas, has gone overseas on holidays at a critical stage in the 2020 General Election campaign.

Cllr Patricia Ryan is contesting her second General Election for Sinn Féin, following a strong performance in 2016 when she got over 4,200 first preference votes and finished fifth, a hugely impressive performance given that the town of Monasterevin where she lives was then in the Laois constituency, as was her native Ballybrittas.

She was only elected to Kildare County Council for the first time in last May’s local elections.

The Monasterevin-based candidate is understood to have gone on vacation due to a long standing holiday which had been booked before the election date was called.

If this wasn't a protest vote then we should have seen a steady increase in support in the local and EU elections, instead SF got crushed in those.

Interesting times ahead but musy say I'm glad to hear Bobby didn't get elected.

finlma

Is today the last day for posters to come down before candidates can be fined? There are still large SF posters on the ring road and probably elsewhere.

They're mad for change. Maybe they can use the change to pay these fines.

road_high

robwen wrote: »

The vote wasn't a personal one for her at all she was dead and buried 2 weeks ago & rightly so she's useless, the Sinn Fein storm swept her in they could have run anyone under the SF banner & got the same result

You can sing that- it's woeful that we have a such dim TD here, hasn't a clue about business or driving the local economy forward. She reads (badly) off a script handed to her from SF HQ about "childcare"- and naturally has never implemented or overseen one policy or action to even improve that area. Just points out the bloody obvious from the ditch.