Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

fash

theological wrote: »

All the more reason why Ireland should be encouraging the EU to take a reasonable position in these talks and to conduct a good trade deal for both sides.

Do we really care if it is good for the UK? Surely it would be in Ireland's interests that a deal crippled the UK? There was a reason that "Nuair a bhíonn deacracht ag Sasana, bíonn deis ag Éirinn" became a thing.
A bad deal for the UK would discredit brexit, brexiters and Euroscepticism. It could bring around the end of the UK and result in NI and Scotland joining the EU.
It would allow Ireland to steal UK financial, IT and media companies.
What's so bad about that? That would be a great deal for Ireland

theological

fash wrote: »

As context, I think we can all agree that Ireland owes the EU more than the EU owes Ireland. The EU is responsible for bringing down the border in NI and in face of British underhandedness and threats, keeping it down.
Ireland is finally independent of the UK and Ireland is now a wealthy country - because of its membership.
Back when no deal in the WA was on the table because of NI, do you think it appropriate that if there was a no deal, then all other EU States ought to have been able to recoup their costs from Ireland?

At what point does this grovelling stop? After how many years?

fash wrote: »

Do we really care if it is good for the UK? Surely it would be in Ireland's interests that a deal crippled the UK? There was a reason that "Nuair a bhíonn deacracht ag Sasana, bíonn deis ag Éirinn" became a thing.
A bad deal for the UK would discredit brexit, brexiters and Euroscepticism. It could bring around the end of the UK and result in NI and Scotland joining the EU.
It would allow Ireland to steal UK financial, IT and media companies.
What's so bad about that? That would be a great deal for Ireland

You were just speaking to another poster about not having much business sense. Having good customers and good access into their market is hugely important.

A bad deal for the UK would be a bad deal for Irish business. Any sensible person know this.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

If, for example, the UK can lower food standards to import cheap GMO feed from the US, but still sell unhindered into the EU, they Ireland will lose out.

That is simply not going to happen. Some in the UK believed for years that the EU would agree to "mutual recognition" of standards but they seem to have finally realised this is a non-runner. Mind you they had to hear it from a lot of people, including their own officials before it sank in.

Leroy42 wrote:

If a company can locate in the UK, have full access to their market and unlimited and unhindered access to the EU, whilst an Irish based company must meet higher standards then the advantage is to the UK.

Another of the Brexit "best of all worlds" pipe dreams. No EU country - least of all Ireland - would tolerate that and watch precious FDI migrate. In fact Ireland will be in the mix competing for a healthy chunk of the FDI that will move out of the UK if they don't stay at least in a Customs Union.

VinLieger

theological wrote: »

At what point does this grovelling stop? After how many years?

What grovelling? We benefit from EU membership, acknowledging that its been and continues to be a positive to be a member isnt grovelling its just a fact.

First Up

theological wrote:

A bad deal for the UK would be a bad deal for Irish business. Any sensible person know this.

Yes and no. Some Irish industry/exports aimed at the UK would suffer, although the EU has already loaded its pockets to offset damage from that for Ireland and elsewhere.

On the plus side, Ireland stands to pick up a respectable share of the business the UK will lose in the EU and we could make quite a killing in pulling EU focused foreign investment out of the UK.

The messiest problem would be the land bridge if UK ports become inoperable. Some new direct routes are in place but probably not enough or as quick.

Holding Ireland hostage was a predictable part of the UK's negotiating strategy. (It was being discussed in Brussels within 12 hours of the Brexit vote.) It didn't work.

fash

theological wrote: »

At what point does this grovelling stop? After how many years?

Literally in December last year the EU forced the UK to divide its state in 2 to prevent the UK reneging on its GFA obligations (the natural consequence of which would involve bringing back the British military to go back to murdering Irish people). The UK tried everything it could to prevent that and issued a vast number of threats against Ireland to allow it to renege on its obligations. Do you think 5 months is enough time? If we left tomorrow, do you think the UK would say "sorry about the way we treated you before, we didn't mean it - we'll be nice to you in future"? In the, admittedly plausible scenario that they said something like that, do you think they'd keep their promises? (Hint: no, no they wouldn't).

You were just speaking to another poster about not having much business sense. Having good customers and good access into their market is hugely important.

The UK is not a "good" customer - it has just threatened to destroy our economy because Ireland was unhappy having to sign an agreement which would result in British soldiers murdering Irish people.
Furthermore allowing our good market (the EU and all of the markets tied to it) to be damaged by allowing a third party access to it for a marginal cost is bad business.

No freeloaders.

A bad deal for the UK would be a bad deal for Irish business. Any sensible person know this.

A bad deal for the UK will discredit brexit, discredit Euroscepticism, potentially return the UK to the EU or to a closer relationship with the EU, potentially break up the UK and bring Scotland and NI into the EU - and potentially bring a huge number of UK businesses into Ireland. That would be great not only for Ireland's business but for Ireland's interests. Northern Ireland alone under Irish jurisdiction could potentially triple its economy plus synergetically add significantly to the overall economy in Ireland. That would be a great deal for Irish business. Discrediting brexitism such that the Tories collapse and Labour brings the UK into the EEA would be fantastic for Irish business.
Giving the UK what it wants such that they can say "see we got a good deal" - especially if it was actually a good deal would damage the EU - and potentially tempt other countries to leave the EU. That would be catastrophic for Irish business.
Hence, no a good deal for the UK (or at least as seen by brexiters) will by definition be a terrible terrible deal for Ireland. It's them or us - and which is for us to decide.

eagle eye

It's unbelievable the crap people post. A guy there is giving the EU the credit for the GFA.
There's a bunch who hate the Brits, you can feel it in their posts.
Then you have those talking about us getting more financial jobs with the UK out. Those jobs won't help the truck drivers, warehouse workers, small businesses, supplying the UK, scattered throughout rural Ireland.

eagle eye

fash wrote:

No freeloaders.

So let's be consistent then and be kick outcall the freeloaders like those African countries. Hell let's go further and kick out Switzerland, what do they do for the EU?

theological

eagle eye wrote: »

It's unbelievable the crap people post. A guy there is giving the EU the credit for the GFA.
There's a bunch who hate the Brits, you can feel it in their posts.
Then you have those talking about us getting more financial jobs with the UK out. Those jobs won't help the truck drivers, warehouse workers, small businesses, supplying the UK, scattered throughout rural Ireland.

You're right, and it isn't just jobs like truck drivers and warehouse workers. A lot of service jobs particularly in sales often sell from Dublin into the UK market as well as Ireland. A lot of jobs are based around the proximity of the UK market.

So claiming that the UK is a poor customer when it is actually quite an important customer is just empty bravado.

This is why the UK proposal of a mutually beneficial FTA is pretty reasonable from an Irish perspective.

fash

eagle eye wrote: »

It's unbelievable the crap people post. A guy there is giving the EU the credit for the GFA.

You do understand the the single market ended borders, borders got rid of the need for checks, meant that the British military defending those could leave and that within 6 months of that happening there was a ceasefire which was formalised in the GFA?
seriously read up about it.

There's a bunch who hate the Brits, you can feel it in their posts.

Some British people are wonderful. Some are awful. The British state is Jekyll and Hyde like - rising to signing the GFA and down to the recent threats. Anyone who doesn't recognise the UK Hyde is at best naive.

Then you have those talking about us getting more financial jobs with the UK out. Those jobs won't help the truck drivers, warehouse workers, small businesses, supplying the UK, scattered throughout rural Ireland.

Nor would having the troubles starting again in NI, nor would crippling 66% of the exporting economy.

fash

theological wrote: »

This is why the UK proposal of a mutually beneficial FTA is pretty reasonable from an Irish perspective.

Interesting that you do not engage in any of the points.

fash

eagle eye wrote: »

So let's be consistent then and be kick outcall the freeloaders like those African countries. Hell let's go further and kick out Switzerland, what do they do for the EU?

Switzerland actually not only pays quite a lot into the EU for access, it also is more or less part of single market. So actually they do a lot.

Sure let's squash those African countries - but I hope you don't then complain if a couple of million Africans come into the EU - or China and middle Eastern countries take control of Africa - or the African economy doesn't grow - which means more scope for pandemics, more famines, human misery, wars and fewer wealthy economies to sell our services.
Let's not forget: African countries aren't trying to destroy the EU. The UK is : it is specifically looking for a "good deal" which will destroy the EU. They've literally sold their project on that basis. Why on earth should we give them what they want?

Seth Brundle

theological wrote: »

You're right, and it isn't just jobs like truck drivers and warehouse workers. A lot of service jobs particularly in sales often sell from Dublin into the UK market as well as Ireland. A lot of jobs are based around the proximity of the UK market.

So claiming that the UK is a poor customer when it is actually quite an important customer is just empty bravado.

This is why the UK proposal of a mutually beneficial FTA is pretty reasonable from an Irish perspective.

Aah Christ Almighty! How can Ireland have a FTA with the Uk when it is a member of the EU?
Also, do you think that the existing trade with the UK will completely dry up come 2021 and if so where do you think the Uk will source those goods and services?

Seth Brundle

fash wrote: »

Interesting that you do not engage in any of the points.

Theo will be along shortly to tell you that he does engage and you should read back over his posts (but still not answering the question presumably)!

theological

fash wrote: »

Interesting that you do not engage in any of the points.

There's not much to engage with.


You say the UK isn't a good customer. The facts say that this isn't true at least in terms of economics.

Your point about basically burning the house down because you don't like democratic decisions in other countries just sounds a bit childish.

A more mature approach would be, I recognise that you've made a political decision that I disagree with but let's work to ensure that our mutually beneficial commercial ties continue.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Aah Christ Almighty! How can Ireland have a FTA with the Uk when it is a member of the EU?
Also, do you think that the existing trade with the UK will completely dry up come 2021 and if so where do you think the Uk will source those goods and services?

I didn't say this.

I'm saying that it is in Ireland's interests for the EU to negotiate a good FTA with the UK. How did you imagine I was saying something else?

eagle eye

fash wrote:

Why on earth should we give them what they want?

To save the Republic of Ireland.

I didn't say give then carte blanche. Give them the same as Norway with control of their borders. What's wrong with that?

Padre_Pio

theological wrote: »

I'm saying that it is in Ireland's interests for the EU to negotiate a good FTA with the UK. How did you imagine I was saying something else?

That's true, but it's not going to happen.

Brexit is not going to benefit Ireland, but we still have the continental market on our doorstep.

eagle eye wrote: »

To save the Republic of Ireland.

I didn't say give then carte blanche. Give them the same as Norway with control of their borders. What's wrong with that?

Sure half the Brits don't want that. They want to leave with WTO rules.
That's the problem with Brexit. Brits are so divided over what they want they can barely put a cohesive response together.

eagle eye

Padre_Pio wrote:

Brexit is not going to benefit Ireland, but we still have the continental market on our doorstep.

That doesn't help much.

J Mysterio

eagle eye wrote: »

To save the Republic of Ireland.

I didn't say give then carte blanche. Give them the same as Norway with control of their borders. What's wrong with that?

This is painfully simplistic.

Firstly, Ireland is the EU.

The EU have given the UK a range of options. With those options are weighted responsibilities. The UK are free to choose from those options, or none.

Everyone hopes we will have a good deal, but the UK persists in asking for what it cannot have. They are wasting time and endangering the livelihoods and wellbeing of all in the UK with their naive, wreckless, and frankly insulting approach.

As per previous advice, I don't know why I'm engaging with you tbh, there is nothing to be gained.

J Mysterio

eagle eye wrote: »

That doesn't help much.

Better to be aligned to the EU then the basket case that is the UK. The UK is a sinking ship. It's ironic that the UK thought their leaving will break up the EU whereas it has actually strengthened its member commitment, while it looks like it is the UK which will soon dissipate. What a shame.

eagle eye

J Mysterio wrote:

I don't know why I'm engaging with you tbh, there is nothing to be gained.

That's a two way street. Goodbye.

Nate--IRL--

eagle eye wrote: »

To save the Republic of Ireland.

I didn't say give then carte blanche. Give them the same as Norway with control of their borders. What's wrong with that?

That's not the same as Norway then is it?

EDIT:- Also, they haven't asked for that.

Nate

eagle eye

Nate--IRL-- wrote:

That not the same as Norway then is it?

Where's the rolly eyes?

VinLieger

eagle eye wrote: »

To save the Republic of Ireland.

I didn't say give then carte blanche. Give them the same as Norway with control of their borders. What's wrong with that?

That would mean them being accepted as a member of Efta and they have basically been told to **** off by the members of Efta due the perfidious albion tactics theyve engaged in for the last 5 years.

Also you seem to be conveniently forgetting even with border control and no free movement it still breaches 3 of the other original red lines..... Or do they magically not matter anymore?

fash

theological wrote: »

There's not much to engage with.

Let's see:
1.Brexit was sold on the basis that the UK could get a "good deal" where " good deal" is a euphemism for what you and brexiters want. A " cake and eat it" deal based on deep hatred and hostility towards the EU and looking to destroy the EU and its aims.
2. Ireland is doing and has done really well out of the EU membership going from one of the poorest countries in Europe to one of the wealthiest in the world.
3. The EU's single market enabled the GFA and the EU has given significant support to the peace process.
4. The EU has even been willing to incur significant financial cost through a no WA deal to ensure that the UK did not renege on its GFA obligations.
5. The EU's power is effectively all that continues to ensure that they remains the case.
6. Aside from the inevitable dead Irish people if a border were brought back, the troubles would be bad for business and make Ireland a less attractive place to invest in.
7.as a corollary of the above, if the single market were to be weakened or eliminated, Ireland would suffer.
8. The basis of brexit is not only "might means right"-but also assumes the UK is mighty. It is based heavily on the rejection of the rule of law and the international order.
9. Hence one of the UK's beliefs in destroying the EU- they believe they can then bully the small states- as they tried to do to Ireland during the WA negotiation.
10. An overly generous deal for a non member brings into question the benefits of membership. Who will pay for a Spotify account if free Spotify is actually really good?
11. The UK wants the equivalent of a free Spotify account without or almost without ads - aka "a good deal"
12. Giving free Spotify accounts without or almost without ads is a bad idea because it makes people paying for the full Spotify package question the economics of that.
13. The UK would be happy with this because either they get Spotify without ads or gets the opportunity to go back to bullying small countries.
14. Ireland is a small country with a history of being bullied by the UK.
15. That history extends right up until about a week ago when the UK issued veiled threats in its NI protocol proposal.
16. Being bullied by the UK is bad for the Irish economy and society - we should try to avoid it.
17. Given that only 44% of the UK voted for the Tories, and almost nobody in Scotland or NI, a no deal with the EU and its economic impact discredits brexit and brexiters.
18. This is likely to result in non Tories being unhappy.
19.This is likely to result in the Tories losing power - since brexit is now all that defines them. Everyone else is dead.
20. This is likely to result in a UK government more amenable to negotiating with the EU- and seeking a closer relationship.
21. Even if it does not, the economic damage and discrediting effect will increase dissatisfaction in those areas that wanted to remain in the EU - Scotland and NI. Likely resulting in the breakup of the UK.
22. Both of these scenarios will increase support within the EU for the EU: small countries will see how bullies are dealt with (e.g. Turkey it Russia got countries close to those) and Eurosceptics will be further discredited : a " free and ad free Spotify account" doesn't exist.

There you go: I've taken the trouble and shown you the respect to write each of my points, please reciprocate by explaining how or where you disagree.

fash

eagle eye wrote: »

To save the Republic of Ireland.

I didn't say give then carte blanche. Give them the same as Norway with control of their borders. What's wrong with that?

It's the "free almost as free Spotify account" issue. Why would anyone pay for Spotify if they can get a free ad free version?

Leroy42

theological wrote: »

You say the UK isn't a good customer. The facts say that this isn't true at least in terms of economics.

They have been a very good customer, mainly because of our joint membership of the EU. It very much appears that Britain now wants to realign that relationship away from equal footing to the UK having the bigger stick and making the rules.

theological wrote: »

Your point about basically burning the house down because you don't like democratic decisions in other countries just sounds a bit childish.

A more mature approach would be, I recognise that you've made a political decision that I disagree with but let's work to ensure that our mutually beneficial commercial ties continue.

I can't speak for the other poster, but throughout this that is exactly what the EU have tried to do. These are the rules, but we are prepared to make exceptions because of the already close ties and mutual beneficial commercial ties. But the UK continually turned that down, instead asking that they choose which rules they want, and don't want, whilst at the same time continually speaking about how being outside the EU will set them free and set them up to be more competitive and able to outdo the EU.

theological wrote: »

I'm saying that it is in Ireland's interests for the EU to negotiate a good FTA with the UK. How did you imagine I was saying something else?

I used to think that, but not any more. The longer this has gone on the more it became clear that the Uk have no intention of working with the EU. For Brexit to be seen as a success, the UK needs to do better than the EU. Thus there is clear competition.

Irelands best interests are served by having the UK back in the EU. The best way to achieve that is to make being outside the EU as difficult as possible. One of the calls about not delaying brexit is that things aren't that bad. A No ideal will have the worst consequences, and whilst of course you'll have plenty of hard brexiteers ready to balem the EU, I believe that the vast majority will see that the lies of the Brexiteers were just that.

Whilst the EU is far from perfect, it must be seen to be worth it. Even from a border point of view, the esiest way to keep any sort of border from NI is for the UK to reenter the EU.

So I would argue that it is in Irelands best interests, long term, to actually not give a good FTA agreement to the UK.

There is also the very real prospect that if the UK gets good FTA, it quickens the likes of Italy and others from leaving and thus hasten to demise of the EU itself, which is certainly not in Irelands interests.

fash

Exactly correct. Plus imagine what a a 2021 election will look like in remain voting Scotland following a no deal 2 brexit.

eagle eye

fash wrote:

It's the "free almost as free Spotify account" issue. Why would anyone pay for Spotify if they can get a free ad free version?

How do you compare people and their livelyhoods to Spotify?

fash

eagle eye wrote: »

How do you compare people and their livelyhoods to Spotify?

As the guy who doesn't care if others (e.g. in Africa or elsewhere) live or die- I'm honestly surprised you care.
But as for the reason: this is a rather apt analogy: People and their livelihoods rely on the EU, people and their livelihoods rely on Spotify.
In what way do you disagree?

Edit I should probably add that I do think your post is amusing- is it meant to be a feigned outrage? " Life is like a box of chocolates..."
"How dare you compare the joys and disappointments of lives to chocolately caramel filled goodness presented in a box - have you no shame". Etc