Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

Seth Brundle

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Let them leave. That is inevitable at this stage. Hopefully the EU is prepared for this and will give them the two fingers.

erm, they've already left?!?
The current discussions are to form a trading relationship after the end of the transition period (Jan 1st 2021)

davedanon

Chris Grey's latest blog post:

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/brexit-britain-risks-heading-to.html


A lot of stuff about the damage the UK is doing to its own reputation as a good faith operator in international trade negotiations, not just with the EU, but other countries around the world (with which it hopes to do deals) which are looking on alarmed at how untrustworthy the UK has become, and who will plan to play hardball on that basis (they're weak, they need us, and they won't keep their word).

A couple of later passages also jumped out at me. Countries will be extremely reluctant to do any deal with them, without knowing what EU/UK arrangements are in place. So the UK may find its hands tied on, much as they would love to leapfrog the pesky EU and get to those sunlit global trade deal uplands.

"But even if the government ride out the domestic economic and political consequences of no deal, the damage to Britain’s international reputation will be substantial. That will matter in relation to the EU and also in relation to other countries, who will see Britain as untrustworthy and irrational but also as desperate to do trade deals on any terms it is given.

For example, it’s already the case that Japan regards Brexit as a betrayal of the trust upon which basis its companies invested so heavily in the UK, and already the case that it is set to make tough demands in trade talks, which have just begun. Their outcome, says Michito Tsuruoka of Keio University writing in the Japan Times, is crucially bound up with the progress and outcome of the UK-EU talks. Indeed, he says, “no country wants to conclude a definitive trade deal with the UK without knowing the final shape of the EU-UK partnership”."


Also, the ERG is likely to torpedo any deal, even no deal, because they have never been satisfied with anything they have been offered thus far.


"And the thing about no deal is that that won’t be an end to the matter. That’s not simply because – as Tom Hayes, again, points out and as I did , in a different way, last week – all the unresolved issues will still be in need of resolution. It’s also because of the implications of the analysis of the ERG, above. For if it is correct that whatever they get they always want more, then what ‘more’ would they ask for having achieved the no trade deal scenario that many of them advocate?

The answer to that is already clear, even before it has happened, in what is already being said about the defects in the WA. That claim will intensify, because the Ultras have never accepted the idea of a financial settlement being made in the absence of a trade deal, and have always argued that any such settlement should be contingent upon a trade deal. Indeed Johnson, during his leadership campaign, threatened just that, whether in order to pander them or from conviction hardly matters.

So if there is no trade deal come next January they will unquestionably try to force the government to break the WA by reneging on the financial settlement and, very likely, as the signs are already there, the Northern Ireland Protocol, with all that will mean for relations with both Ireland and the US, though probably not, I think and hope, the Citizens’ Rights agreement. We will then be well beyond the current damage to trust and reputation, and headed down the road to pariahdom. We’re not quite on that road yet, but we’ve had glimpses recently of the signposts to it and if, as seems increasingly likely, there is no deal it’s the one the Ultras will be urging us down.

If so, it’s worth recalling that they haven’t, so far, failed to get their own way."

10000maniacs

davedanon wrote: »

Chris Grey's latest blog post:

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/brexit-britain-risks-heading-to.html


A lot of stuff about the damage the UK is doing to its own reputation as a good faith operator in international trade negotiations, not just with the EU, but other countries around the world (with which it hopes to do deals) which are looking on alarmed at how untrustworthy the UK has become, and who will plan to play hardball on that basis (they're weak, they need us, and they won't keep their word).

A couple of later passages also jumped out at me. Countries will be extremely reluctant to do any deal with them, without knowing what EU/UK arrangements are in place. So the UK may find its hands tied on, much as they would love to leapfrog the pesky EU and get to those sunlit global trade deal uplands.

"But even if the government ride out the domestic economic and political consequences of no deal, the damage to Britain’s international reputation will be substantial. That will matter in relation to the EU and also in relation to other countries, who will see Britain as untrustworthy and irrational but also as desperate to do trade deals on any terms it is given.

For example, it’s already the case that Japan regards Brexit as a betrayal of the trust upon which basis its companies invested so heavily in the UK, and already the case that it is set to make tough demands in trade talks, which have just begun. Their outcome, says Michito Tsuruoka of Keio University writing in the Japan Times, is crucially bound up with the progress and outcome of the UK-EU talks. Indeed, he says, “no country wants to conclude a definitive trade deal with the UK without knowing the final shape of the EU-UK partnership”."


Also, the ERG is likely to torpedo any deal, even no deal, because they have never been satisfied with anything they have been offered thus far.


"And the thing about no deal is that that won’t be an end to the matter. That’s not simply because – as Tom Hayes, again, points out and as I did , in a different way, last week – all the unresolved issues will still be in need of resolution. It’s also because of the implications of the analysis of the ERG, above. For if it is correct that whatever they get they always want more, then what ‘more’ would they ask for having achieved the no trade deal scenario that many of them advocate?

The answer to that is already clear, even before it has happened, in what is already being said about the defects in the WA. That claim will intensify, because the Ultras have never accepted the idea of a financial settlement being made in the absence of a trade deal, and have always argued that any such settlement should be contingent upon a trade deal. Indeed Johnson, during his leadership campaign, threatened just that, whether in order to pander them or from conviction hardly matters.

So if there is no trade deal come next January they will unquestionably try to force the government to break the WA by reneging on the financial settlement and, very likely, as the signs are already there, the Northern Ireland Protocol, with all that will mean for relations with both Ireland and the US, though probably not, I think and hope, the Citizens’ Rights agreement. We will then be well beyond the current damage to trust and reputation, and headed down the road to pariahdom. We’re not quite on that road yet, but we’ve had glimpses recently of the signposts to it and if, as seems increasingly likely, there is no deal it’s the one the Ultras will be urging us down.

If so, it’s worth recalling that they haven’t, so far, failed to get their own way."

But on a positive note, they are opening up zoos on Monday.

davedanon

Hushed tones of Sir Dave Attenborough: "Behold. A magnificent silverback...."

Seth Brundle

davedanon wrote: »

Hushed tones of Sir Dave Attenborough: "Behold. A magnificent silverback...."

I think he would be better described as a sloth that spends it's time doing very little

davedanon

Seth Brundle wrote: »

that spends it's time doing very little

Kind of like a silverback gorilla...

AMKC

Well the UK can not now seek an extension and do not want to. Sad really. They think they are better off outside the European Union but are very wrong. In the next few months or 6 months I can see both Airbus and Nissan pulling out of the UK as well as other big companies. I see them going into a very bad recession or even a depression. They will get it hard to get funding from the markets and eventually have to go to the IMF like they did in the 70s to be bailed out. They will be in austerity for years and all this will but our economy and the EU economy will be booming again. They will have fresh early election before they are supposed to. Boris and his Government will ne kicked out s new one will be formed they will have a new referendum asking if they want to rejoin the EU and the people will say yes by about 75 to 80 per cent. I see all that happening in that next 5 to 10 years.

Seth Brundle

AMKC wrote: »

I see them going into a very bad recession or even a depression. They will get it hard to get funding from the markets and eventually have to go to the IMF like they did in the 70s to be bailed out. They will be in austerity for years and all this will but our economy and the EU economy will be booming again.

But things will be better in 50 years time according to JRM!

davedanon

But still....Bye bye, EU. Bye bye, EU.

briany

Seth Brundle wrote: »

But things will be better in 50 years time according to JRM!

That's only for the great British public. They'll be better for JRM, specifically, sooner than that.

10000maniacs

What are the US and China going to say about the UK giving preferential treatment to the EU, waving their exports through while all other WTO countries goods are going to be checked to within an inch of their lives?. Trump ain't going to like it. Not one bit.
The Tories are still as clueless and rudderless as they were in 2016.

Seth Brundle

briany wrote: »

That's only for the great British public. They'll be better for JRM, specifically, sooner than that.

Is that because his business is still in the EU!

SharpshooterTom

Nigel Farage is preparing to reboot the Brexit Party just six months on from the general election.

According to sources quoted in the Sunday Express the party has already opened talks with a public relations firm and is preparing to stand a candidate in the next available by-election.

It is likely to be renamed the Reform Party, and may also set their sights on the reform of the House of Lords.

Senior figures from the Brexit Party have also been in talks with senior Tory MPs on the right of the party who are concerned about the loss of direction by Mr Johnson’s government.

There are also concerns that Mr Johnson may go “soft on Brexit” to get a quick deal with the EU and compromise on immigration rules as well as fishing waters and accepting EU rules.

One Tory MP who has spoken to both Mr Farage and Brexit Party chairman Richard Tice, said: “It will be a disaster if they relaunch. They will immediately pick up eight to 10 per cent of our vote and put us in second place behind Labour.

“A split in the centre right will mean we are always playing catch up.”

The MP added: “We should have given Nigel a knighthood and thanked him but instead Boris and Downing Street just wanted to humiliate him.”

Another Conservative MP added: “The problem is that Boris has left an open goal for the Brexit Party by pandering to the left.

“We have gone over the top with lockdown and we have allowed the streets to be taken over by rioters.

“The one thing we are getting right is Brexit but we are in danger of losing public confidence on that too.”

According to the latest polls public discontent at the Government’s handling of the crisis reached its highest level to date this week.

Nearly half (48 per cent) of the UK population disapprove of the Government’s handling of coronavirus, with only 3-in-10 approving.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/nigel-farage-to-relaunch-brexit-party-saying-government-is-going-soft-on-brexit/15/06/

More headaches for Johnson as Farage doesn't appear to be going away. I think the sole comment to the article below sums up the mindset of some brexiteers and how they perceive the government going far too soft on BLM and statues and think the Tories are too weak in defending British heritage/culture (whatever that is).

Not sure how Johnson is going too soft on Brexit, think Ian Dunt's tweet sums it up:

https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1272175516926324736

Spanish Eyes

He has to find relevance since being booted out of LBC.

Brexit has happened, I don't see what his point is anymore. Oh well the pubs are closed and his cigs might be in short supply. Bored man.

davedanon

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Is that because his business is still in the EU!

Specifically, in Dublin.

Chris Grey's latest: https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/nothingtosee-here_19.html

It’s this which makes the present political situation truly alarming. We’re not in sway to some set of manipulative geniuses pursuing a well-thought out, if malign, agenda, but the captives of a coterie of utterly deluded simpletons who have stumbled into power by a series of accidents. The plane hasn’t been hijacked by steely-eyed terrorists so much as it has fallen into the inadvertent hands of a group of smirking school bullies and debating society geeks, led by a priapic layabout and advised by those for whom the term Incel inadequates is not so much an insult as an unattainable aspiration. Thus as Rafael Behr writes, convincingly, “incompetence is a built-in feature, not a bug of Boris Johnson’s government”.

ancapailldorcha

A former Australian PM explaining how a trade deal with Australia is not going to count for much compared to leaving the EU single market:

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1273921915040792576

Beasty

Threads merged

davedanon

Beasty wrote: »

Threads merged

Sorry, merged with which thread?

J Mysterio

Beasty wrote: »

Threads merged

It would be great to know which threads are merged...

joeguevara

Not sure if posted already but I saw a tweet today that encapsulates the U.K. approach to trade negotiations perfectly. It was a summary of the U.K. deciding to do their own Covid Tracing App and how they thought they could bully Apple and google.

Here it is

davedanon

Chris Grey...

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/four-years-on-we-need-whole-new-brexit.html

Seth Brundle

After four years, some people still don't seem to get it (read the follow up tweets in the twitter thread also)...

https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1277505330885386240

davedanon

Seth Brundle wrote: »

After four years, some people still don't seem to get it (read the follow up tweets in the twitter thread also)...

https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1277505330885386240

OMG, that is just priceless. It would take a heart of stone not to......laugh.

ancapailldorcha

davedanon wrote: »

OMG, that is just priceless. It would take a heart of stone not to......laugh.

Go for it. They voted for it after all.

Experience_day

Seth Brundle wrote: »

After four years, some people still don't seem to get it (read the follow up tweets in the twitter thread also)...

https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1277505330885386240

And then everyone clapped.


:rolleyes:

ancapailldorcha

The last paragraph. Christ.

https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1277613712292155393

Irishmale0399

The sad part of it all is that they all believe what they are writing and being told. Dec. and Jan. will be some fun if they dont ask for an extension once again.

ancapailldorcha

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

The sad part of it all is that they all believe what they are writing and being told. Dec. and Jan. will be some fun if they dont ask for an extension once again.

Problem there is that the ability for them to even do so is far from certain. The window closes in June and lawyers seem divided on what can happen after the window closes after tomorrow.

Irishmale0399

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Problem there is that the ability for them to even do so is far from certain. The window closes in June and lawyers seem divided on what can happen after the window closes after tomorrow.

If I had my way I would give them what they really really want!!!! Goodbye and make a statement as the whole EU. Lets see how they cope alone with Covid recovery, closed borders........

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The last paragraph. Christ.

https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1277613712292155393

The comments underneath are just depressing.