Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

Leroy42

Aegir wrote: »

Which has nothing to do with the discussion.

Yeah I know, it was slightly tongue in cheek.

But it does signal what is being lost in all of this. They have lost FoM for themselves, have to spend millions to get to a position that is worse for NI than it currently is, create a system to fine drivers for entering a part of their own country which was previously free to do.

So far from gaining freedom they are placing massive restrictions, red tape and costs on themselves.

davedanon

Taking back can't rule.

McGiver

Take back control for the unelected Westminster elite :cool:

[which they never lost, but they can still usurp extra powers at the expense of the parliament]

The UK political system is rotten to the core and they're on a good path to become a pariah state, a western clone of Russia.

So lucky I had left several years ago! I could smell trouble.

davedanon

Chris Grey yesterday...

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/the-sillier-season.html

Leroy42

Yorkshire Bylines have been running a series of, IMO, very good opinion pieces on the Bbrexit process.

Their latest, https://twitter.com/YorksBylines/status/1295730553971519488, argues that Johnson will forced, due to circumstances and the sheer position that Brexit puts the UK in, do to a deal, almost any deal, with the EU.

It also makes the point that since the need for paperwork is a given, no matter what deal is struck, then the case for divergence in standards becomes a political one as to remain the same would show up the pointlessness of the entire endevour.

I told ya

McGiver wrote: »

Take back control for the unelected Westminster elite :cool:

[which they never lost, but they can still usurp extra powers at the expense of the parliament]

The UK political system is rotten to the core and they're on a good path to become a pariah state, a western clone of Russia.

So lucky I had left several years ago! I could smell trouble.

Can I coin the phrase 'Little Russia'?

davedanon

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yorkshire Bylines have been running a series of, IMO, very good opinion pieces on the Bbrexit process.

Their latest, https://twitter.com/YorksBylines/status/1295730553971519488, argues that Johnson will forced, due to circumstances and the sheer position that Brexit puts the UK in, do to a deal, almost any deal, with the EU.

It also makes the point that since the need for paperwork is a given, no matter what deal is struck, then the case for divergence in standards becomes a political one as to remain the same would show up the pointlessness of the entire endevour.

Good piece, Leroy, cheers.

BonnieSituation

I told ya wrote: »

Can I coin the phrase 'Little Russia'?

Unfortunately not. That was actually a historical region in what is now Ukraine and Belarus [tran. White Russia]. It was also a term used as an alternative name for Ukraine.

Here ya go:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Russia

Leroy42

Seems the latest sticking point is that the UK want UK truckers to maintain current access to EU markets, and the EU don't want to (or want something in return).

Brexit trade talks set to stall again over British truckers’ EU access

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/brexit-trade-talks-set-to-stall-again-over-british-truckers-eu-access-1.4333944

I firmly believe that it is a position that will be resolved, the UK will get to maintain their access, but at what price? What are the UK willing to give in return for this? (this goes for lots of other areas as well). It seems that the UK feel that they should be able to pick and choose but have not given any indication of what they are prepared to offer the EU in return.

Leroy42

So I see David Frost has set yet another deadline, when the EU must agree a deal, because otherwise the UK are walking away. For definite. This time.

The new deadline is September, not t be confused with the July deadline by Johnson, or the August deadline by Frost.

As Peter Foster of the FT stated on radio yesterday (I think it was yesterday) one of the sticking points is the LPF, with the UK looking for an agreement that they don't need to stick to EU because of their own rules. But that so far the government has not actually agreed what those rules will actually be so in effect they are giving Frost nothing to negotiate with.

Frost - We don't need to abide by your EU rules as our rules will be roughly the same
Barnier - Great - let us see the outline of the new rules and we can compare
Front - Well, d haven't actually decided on what the rules will be but trust us they will, probably, be much the same, unless we make them different.
Barnier - See you in September

davedanon

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/

From Friday 21st.

Leroy42

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2020/aug/26/germany-scraps-plans-for-brexit-talks-at-eu-ambassadors-summit?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true&s=09

So little has happened over the last few months that Germany, what with all these car manufacturers beating down Merkels door to arrange a deal, have taken Brexit discussion off the agenda for the next summit.

mick087

Leroy42 wrote: »

So I see David Frost has set yet another deadline, when the EU must agree a deal, because otherwise the UK are walking away. For definite. This time.

The new deadline is September, not t be confused with the July deadline by Johnson, or the August deadline by Frost.

As Peter Foster of the FT stated on radio yesterday (I think it was yesterday) one of the sticking points is the LPF, with the UK looking for an agreement that they don't need to stick to EU because of their own rules. But that so far the government has not actually agreed what those rules will actually be so in effect they are giving Frost nothing to negotiate with.

Frost - We don't need to abide by your EU rules as our rules will be roughly the same
Barnier - Great - let us see the outline of the new rules and we can compare
Front - Well, d haven't actually decided on what the rules will be but trust us they will, probably, be much the same, unless we make them different.
Barnier - See you in September

The Brits don't seem to worried about to things to be fair to them
The EU is to me is trying the bullying tactics

Both sides need to kop on.

My fear is the EU will try to punish the UK for standing up to them which will not be great for us in Ireland.

ancapailldorcha

mick087 wrote: »

The Brits don't seem to worried about to things to be fair to them
The EU is to me is trying the bullying tactics

Both sides need to kop on.

My fear is the EU will try to punish the UK for standing up to them which will not be great for us in Ireland.

What evidence do you have that the EU are using bullying tactics?

Leroy42

mick087 wrote: »

The Brits don't seem to worried about to things to be fair to them
The EU is to me is trying the bullying tactics

Both sides need to kop on.

My fear is the EU will try to punish the UK for standing up to them which will not be great for us in Ireland.

So hold on. Brexit was all about taking back control, getting away from having to pool together, that the UK was so important, the 5th largest eonomy in the world that other would be beating down its door.

But now it is all not working because the EU is a bully?

Not worried? Did you see the Operation Yellowhammer report? Did you read the leaked 'worst case scenario' planning doc recently published? Did you miss the calls from government prior to March last year for stockpiles to be built up?

Peregrinus

mick087 wrote: »

The Brits don't seem to worried about to things to be fair to them

You're accusing them of an astonishing degree of stupidity. They should be worried about things. They have made poor choices which are not working out the way they fondly imagined, and they seem to be denial about the fact.

(Of course, perhaps it's fair in the circumstances accuse the Brits of astonishing stupidity. Maybe that's what you meant?)

mick087 wrote: »

The EU is to me is trying the bullying tactics

Both sides need to kop on.

My fear is the EU will try to punish the UK for standing up to them which will not be great for us in Ireland.

If 1 Jan 2021 comes without a trade deal, that will certainly not be good for us in Ireland. But this will hardly be the result of the EU punishing the UK; it will be the resut of the UK unilaterally deciding to terminate the existing arrangements and then failing to agree to any replacement arrangements.

mick087

Leroy42 wrote: »

So hold on. Brexit was all about taking back control, getting away from having to pool together, that the UK was so important, the 5th largest eonomy in the world that other would be beating down its door.

But now it is all not working because the EU is a bully?

Not worried? Did you see the Operation Yellowhammer report? Did you read the leaked 'worst case scenario' planning doc recently published? Did you miss the calls from government prior to March last year for stockpiles to be built up?

Id say your correct to some of the UK citizens it was indeed about taking about control.

Its to early to say about beating down doors we have no idea what the fall out will be only opinions and speculation. Yes your correct the UK does hae a very big economy.


I have not seen that worst case scenario report or for that matter i have not see the best case scenario report.
With out doubt there are going to be massive problems and i agree with have no idea of what the fall out will be again we can only speculate.
Hence i worry the EU might will not want the UK to succeed in making brexit a success.

mick087

Peregrinus wrote: »

You're accusing them of an astonishing degree of stupidity. They should be worried about things. They have made poor choices which are not working out the way they fondly imagined, and they seem to be denial about the fact.

(Of course, perhaps it's fair in the circumstances accuse the Brits of astonishing stupidity. Maybe that's what you meant?)

If 1 Jan 2021 comes without a trade deal, that will certainly not be good for us in Ireland. But this will hardly be the result of the EU punishing the UK; it will be the resut of the UK unilaterally deciding to terminate the existing arrangements and then failing to agree to any replacement arrangements.

I agree they should be worried then again maybe im wrong and they are correct we simply do don't know.

I would never call a race of people stupid because they did not agree with me id call that being self righteous and arrogant.

None of this is going to be good for Ireland that is for certainty. We are bang in the middle of this hence i say both sides need to kop on.

Leroy42

mick087 wrote: »

Id say your correct to some of the UK citizens it was indeed about taking about control.

Its to early to say about beating down doors we have no idea what the fall out will be only opinions and speculation. Yes your correct the UK does hae a very big economy.


I have not seen that worst case scenario report or for that matter i have not see the best case scenario report.
With out doubt there are going to be massive problems and i agree with have no idea of what the fall out will be again we can only speculate.
Hence i worry the EU might will not want the UK to succeed in making brexit a success.

Right, so you think they are not worried but openly admit that you haven't read the reports that show all the things they are worried about.

Too early? When then? Is there a point that you expect it to happen.

No idea what the problems will be? Read the yellowhammer report. Read the governments own economics forecasts? It seems monumentality irresponsible to continue on with a course of action when nothing is known, or even expected, as an outcome. This isn't even win or bust. This is a jump into the unknown, but for 65m people. It is a staggering gamble for any government to undertake.

Why do you worry about the EU feelings on UK? They have set themselves up as a direct competitor to the EU. They will outcompete them by getting rid of regulations etc. It isn't about punishing them, it is about allowing the member states to gain from the rules and not just anyone.

If you are a member of a club do you think it ok that anyone can simply get the same entitlements as you? Why would you bother being a member if that was the case?

If the EU are able to punish the UK, don't you see that in reality that proves how advantageous being the in the EU was in the first place? By admitting that you think the EU was bullying, the UK are accepting that being in the EU is better than being outside?

Yet at the same time are hell bent on leaving, some unknown thing, and some unknow time in the future.

Leroy42

mick087 wrote: »

None of this is going to be good for Ireland that is for certainty. We are bang in the middle of this hence i say both sides need to kop on.

When you say both sides need to kop on what do you mean?

Do you mean the UK should cancel Brexit? Do you mean the EU should give the UK what they want?

Do you think Ireland should agree to let the UK gain a competitive advantage and thus put all current and future FDI in doubt?

Peregrinus

mick087 wrote: »

I agree they should be worried then again maybe im wrong and they are correct we simply do don't know.

We have a pretty good idea. The British government's own analysis and projections are that it will be a torrid time. And the people who are saying "Don't worry! She'll be grand!" are not offering coherent reasons as to why this might be correct, and have a track record of getting all their predictions wrong so far - the easiest deal in history, holding all the cards, the German car manufacturers, the EU will cave, "technological solutions" to the hard border. So we're not exactly in a state of perfect ignorance here; we are quite well positioned to evaluate the rival claims that (a) it'll be grand, and (b) it'll be horrible.

mick087 wrote: »

I would never call a race of people stupid because they did not agree with me id call that being self righteous and arrogant.

Fair enough. We cannot call the entire British people stupid; just the ones who assert that no deal will be grand and the ones who choose to believe that when common sense and evidence point the other way.

mick087 wrote: »

None of this is going to be good for Ireland that is for certainty.

If we can say with certainty that it will be bad for Ireland (and, I agree, we can) I don't see how you can possibly think that we "simply don't know" whether it will be bad for the UK.

mick087 wrote: »

We are bang in the middle of this hence i say both sides need to kop on.

Yeah. I think the point to grasp, though, is that one side is already copped on. Nobody on the EU side is going around saying that no deal will be grand, or complaining that the UK is "bullying" them.

mick087

Leroy42 wrote: »

Right, so you think they are not worried but openly admit that you haven't read the reports that show all the things they are worried about.

Too early? When then? Is there a point that you expect it to happen.

No idea what the problems will be? Read the yellowhammer report. Read the governments own economics forecasts? It seems monumentality irresponsible to continue on with a course of action when nothing is known, or even expected, as an outcome. This isn't even win or bust. This is a jump into the unknown, but for 65m people. It is a staggering gamble for any government to undertake.

Why do you worry about the EU feelings on UK? They have set themselves up as a direct competitor to the EU. They will outcompete them by getting rid of regulations etc. It isn't about punishing them, it is about allowing the member states to gain from the rules and not just anyone.

If you are a member of a club do you think it ok that anyone can simply get the same entitlements as you? Why would you bother being a member if that was the case?

If the EU are able to punish the UK, don't you see that in reality that proves how advantageous being the in the EU was in the first place? By admitting that you think the EU was bullying, the UK are accepting that being in the EU is better than being outside?

Yet at the same time are hell bent on leaving, some unknown thing, and some unknow time in the future.

I would not be able to give to a date we will have to see how things pan out

A report on on worst case Scenario is that just a report of the worst that could happen? This dont mean it would happen but a possibility one of many possibilities.

No the UK should not get the same entitlements as a club member but lets not make things difficult for a x club member who also happens to be our neighbour.

If they are able to punish the UK then i hope that don't happen. That would not be a good idea at all.

I agree with have no idea of when they will leave and like you the sooner they go the better. But leaving on good terms, both are guilty at the moment of being difficult.

Leroy42

But a worse case is still a possibility, why would any sane government even put the country at risk like that? One of the main governments jobs, any government, is to mitigate risks. be that environmental, societal, economic. And of course it is right that governments plan for worst cases whilst hoping that they don't happen - case in point being the lack of PPE when the pandemic struck.

But Brexit is very different. Brexit is actually being actively pursued. So any measures taken to mitigate the risk are required as a direct result to the decisions taken. It is clearly not the same.

But no report, anywhere, is saying there is an upside to any of this. None. So on one hand we have varying degrees of disaster, ranging from hardly any impact to severe and lasting negative impact. Now the easiest mitigation to the risks is to cancel BRexit, yet the UK government has consistently ruled that out and even this year refused to extend a transition period whilst at the same time saying they couldn't possibly be ready in time.

So you agree that they shouldn't get the same benefits. Great. So what particular benefits should they not get?

You mention punish again. That is an emotional term and yet the line above you agree that benefits should be lost. So what do you consider to be a punishment.

Good terms? Sounds great. The problem is that good terms for the UK seems to be that they retain all the access but none of the rules. Do you think that is fair? Is that the 'kop-om' that you speak of? That Ireland should simply allow the UK to undercut it, take all FDI?

Why would a US company come to Ireland, with all the EU regulations, when it can go to a dereguated UK and have all the same access?

CelticRambler

mick087 wrote: »

I agree with have no idea of when they will leave and like you the sooner they go the better. But leaving on good terms, both are guilty at the moment of being difficult.

They're already gone. 31st January 2020 - it's in the past. Next key date is 31st December 2021 when their period of grace runs out and all their entitlements to carry on as if nothing's changed come to an end. If you don't know what that means for British citizens and businesses, you've got a lot of catching up to do. The EU has published dozens and dozens of documents explaining what the British will not be able to do on the 1st January.

So we all have a very good idea of what's coming in just over four months. The EU saying you must have an EU-equivalent drivers' licence and an EU standard vehicle to drive on EU roads is not "being difficult" - it's a reasonable position that the English negotiators don't want to accept.

mick087

CelticRambler wrote: »

They're already gone. 31st January 2020 - it's in the past. Next key date is 31st December 2021 when their period of grace runs out and all their entitlements to carry on as if nothing's changed come to an end. If you don't know what that means for British citizens and businesses, you've got a lot of catching up to do. The EU has published dozens and dozens of documents explaining what the British will not be able to do on the 1st January.

So we all have a very good idea of what's coming in just over four months. The EU saying you must have an EU-equivalent drivers' licence and an EU standard vehicle to drive on EU roads is not "being difficult" - it's a reasonable position that the English negotiators don't want to accept.

Yes your correct they have already gone i apologise for my confusion i was meaning the period of grace was over.

Yes im very familiar with what we are being told will happen to British citizens and businesses and what we are being told don,t sound good.

Yes the documents do indeed makes the UK situation sound grim. I hope this is not the case and i hope the situation is not so grim as we are being told.

My guess is euro citizens and goverments will be watching the UK very closely over the next few years.

Leroy42

CelticRambler wrote: »

So we all have a very good idea of what's coming in just over four months. The EU saying you must have an EU-equivalent drivers' licence and an EU standard vehicle to drive on EU roads is not "being difficult" - it's a reasonable position that the English negotiators don't want to accept.

This is exactly the problem. The UK do not think that they should have to do anything different. They are leaving, but hey we are still the UK and so everything remains the same for us in the EU, but not the other way around.

It is why so many have got EU passports (Ireland numbers have shot up for example). Those are the people that do get that something valuable from the the EU, FoM, and although they want to stop it for others they want to maintain for themselves.

Hence the feeling that losing something is seen as punishment.

mick087

Leroy42 wrote: »

When you say both sides need to kop on what do you mean?

Do you mean the UK should cancel Brexit? Do you mean the EU should give the UK what they want?

Do you think Ireland should agree to let the UK gain a competitive advantage and thus put all current and future FDI in doubt?

I mean both sides should stop playing hardball and actually come up with an agreement both can lie with. negotiations big or small are always the same people playing hardball.


No it would not be a good idea to cancel brexit



No the EU should not give the UK want it wants both sides want is best both sides must compromise.


Absolutely not we should allow no country competitive advantage.

ancapailldorcha

mick087 wrote: »

No the EU should not give the UK want it wants both sides want is best both sides must compromise.

Absolutely not we should allow no country competitive advantage.

You're contradicting yourself. What the UK wants is full EU market access with none of the responsibilities or trade offs. Allowing that to happen would undermine the single market and ultimately trash the economies of most European countries.

swampgas

mick087 wrote: »

I mean both sides should stop playing hardball and actually come up with an agreement both can lie with. negotiations big or small are always the same people playing hardball.


No it would not be a good idea to cancel brexit



No the EU should not give the UK want it wants both sides want is best both sides must compromise.


Absolutely not we should allow no country competitive advantage.

There is no middle ground to be found, IMO. The UK has chosen an extreme position and there is no way that the other EU countries can give them what they want without fatally undermining the fundamentals of the EU itself.

For the EU (and I include Ireland in that) no deal is better than a bad deal with the UK.

Leroy42

mick087 wrote: »

I mean both sides should stop playing hardball and actually come up with an agreement both can lie with. negotiations big or small are always the same people playing hardball.


No it would not be a good idea to cancel brexit



No the EU should not give the UK want it wants both sides want is best both sides must compromise.


Absolutely not we should allow no country competitive advantage.

So what is the middle ground?

The most logical outcome is no deal. the UK leaves and becomes like any other 3rd country and then starts the process of closer trade.

It was assumed, due to the relationship, that this could be avoided and that a deal could be made based on the current situation. But the UK seems to want to be treated as a member, except for the bits it doesn't like.

So the question basically boils down to what areas should the Uk compromise and what areas should the EU compromise, as I agree that both sides need to compromise.

But even at this late stage the UK have shown no willingness to compromise, and are even discussing getting rid of the legally binding WA. How can the EU compromise based on that?