Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

Professor Moriarty

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

We are a net contributor now and thanks to our leprechaun economics with multinationals offshoring profits here our contribution is based on the skewed gni figure rather than the true figure.

Our contributions are expected to rise year on year and with the uk shaped hole in the eu budget even more so

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2020/1109/1177074-ireland-eu-budget-contribution/

However, it has emerged that when calculating Ireland's net contribution to the EU budget, the EU bases its calculations not on Modified GNI, but the standard GNI approach as applied to all member states by the EU's statistics agency Eurostat.

Figures compiled by the CSO show that in 2016, Ireland's Modified GNI was €174.7 billion, but the standard GNI was the higher figure of €220.7 billion.

That's a lot of extra cheddar

Aren't you American?

peasant

Fred Cryton wrote: »

Can someone remind me here, what is the downside for the UK from this deal?

They have full and free access to the EU market. Without paying the £10 billion annual fee they were paying before.

Err, no, they don't
There is the pesky issue of customs controls and Vat which makes everything that much more awkward and expensive.

There also is the issue that EU trade deals with other nations no longer apply to the UK. Which is what they wanted ...but wait and see what deals they are going to get when their future trading partner re-assess their new "importance" in relation to the EU.

But the biggest hammer blow is that their financial services sector (by far their biggest industry) has just lost most of its EU access rights. London is now the Cayman Islands in the North Sea. Tax avoidance and black accounts will be their main business ...everything less shady will slowly wander of to their newly established headquarters in the EU.

Professor Moriarty

Okay. So you are American and you're not American at the same time.

Edit: I see Ex Machina deleted their post. Strange.

Padre_Pio

Fred Cryton wrote: »

They will either have the same regulations as they did while a member, or they can choose to change them and have tariffs imposed on that sector only. Again, where's the downside for the UK.

All while not paying the £10 billion annual fee they were paying before.

EU membership is more than just tariffs on physical goods. The EU also invests money back into local and national projects, research, communities, and coordinated efforts.
Ireland did very well out of EU membership and was a net recipient for years. Now we're a contributor, but let's face it, EU membership gives plenty of benefits and the subscription fee makes it worthwhile (national, political and economic security, common agricultural, fishing, cultural policies, FDI as an English speaking EU country etc etc)

Meanwhile...

UK just lost freedom of movement.
UK citizens need to apply for visas to work in the EU.
UK qualifications will not be recognised.
There will still be customs checks and bureocracy.

UK has an internal border between NI and GB (maybe another one at Kent too)
Services are not transferrable.
UK lost financial passporting (we'll see the extent of this in the new year)
UK lost all financial investment from the EU.

In order to sell into EU, a country needs to have an "authorised representative" so UK companies will need EU offices (likewise US companies may need to relocate to EU countries).

We'll only see the extent of this in the new year, but free trade on goods is only the surface of what EU membership gives.

First Up

Padre_Pio wrote:

We'll only see the extent of this in the new year, but free trade on goods is only the surface of what EU membership gives.

The Single Market is much more than free trade.

AMKC

Well the UK made there choice and they can now live with it. I think it will cost them big time but they deserve it. Everything in there country Is going to get more expensive and the old saying goes "You never know what you had till its gone" I think the UK will regret this big time and there people too. The question now is how long before the UK goes bust and has to be bailed out and how long before they realise they were better in the EU and come back? I give it a decade on both at most.

It's bizarre to call zero quotas and tariffs a negotiating victory when more than that was on offer from the EU on day one.

fash

Padre_Pio wrote: »

EU membership is more than just tariffs on physical goods. The EU also invests money back into local and national projects, research, communities, and coordinated efforts.
Ireland did very well out of EU membership and was a net recipient for years. Now we're a contributor, but let's face it, EU membership gives plenty of benefits and the subscription fee makes it worthwhile (national, political and economic security, common agricultural, fishing, cultural policies, FDI as an English speaking EU country etc etc)

Meanwhile...

UK just lost freedom of movement.
UK citizens need to apply for visas to work in the EU.
UK qualifications will not be recognised.
There will still be customs checks and bureocracy.

UK has an internal border between NI and GB (maybe another one at Kent too)
Services are not transferrable.
UK lost financial passporting (we'll see the extent of this in the new year)
UK lost all financial investment from the EU.

In order to sell into EU, a country needs to have an "authorised representative" so UK companies will need EU offices (likewise US companies may need to relocate to EU countries).

We'll only see the extent of this in the new year, but free trade on goods is only the surface of what EU membership gives.

For all of those thinking "that's a great deal" - read up on and understand the implications of rules of origin.

um7y1h83ge06nx

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's bizarre to call zero quotas and tariffs a negotiating victory when more than that was on offer from the EU on day one.

But can you really put a price on freedom, sovereignty and removing the shackles from the nasty EU?! ;-)

With some of the Brexit rhetoric you would swear the EU had tanks and soldiers on the streets of London.

fash

Fred Cryton wrote: »

There's no actual customs or tariffs to be paid though under this agreement. There will have to be checks, but I don't see the cost of checks as being that great.

No customs/tariffs on goods (which EU mostly supplies) so long as the achieve the minimum rules of origin requirements (which is much more difficult if you are small - like the UK). Expect all integrated supply chains to be sucked out of the UK and a massive decrease in UK manufacturing.
Now let's talk about services (which is what the UK is good at) - and on which it got nothing.

Maybe they don't have sovereignty, but that is a choice on their part. If they are smart then they can simply follow along with similar regulations to the EU and have full access, without paying the £10 billion.
Basically my point is this is a superior situation now than before for the UK, because they had to follow along with EU regulation while a member and pay the membership fee.

For a member state's annual subscription to the EU, the member state gets a massive reduction in bureaucracy (a reduction of tens upon tens of thousands of civil servants - not to mention the 50 thousand customs officials in UK plus all of their private sector counterparts), world standard setting regulations, most advantageous free trade agreements in the world (given size of single market), structural funds (Cornwall funding reduced to 5% of what it was getting), security databases, Galileo satellite system, Erasmus, Horizon, international health care, free roaming on mobile phones -and the safety of knowing you won't be bullied by another state (see Ireland v UK in withdrawal agreement, UK v US on internet tax), the ability to send undocumented migrants back to other European countries - and on and on - really this could go on all day.
Economically, there is a reason why sterling is down to € 1.11 with this deal compared to 1.44 prior to the referendum - and why international economists think the UK has just "punched itself in the face" or given its an "unnecessary amputation" .

Also, the EU is no longer sovereign after this either, as it will face tariffs into its biggest market if it decides to make regulatory changes.

Interesting use of the word "sovereign" - actually the EU is large enough that it is the dog and the UK is the tail.

Richard Hillman

So the Blueprint for leaving the EU is finished. You get all of the benefits and you get to leave behind all of the drawbacks. This is the end.

irelandrover

Richard Hillman wrote: »

So the Blueprint for leaving the EU is finished. You get all of the benefits and you get to leave behind all of the drawbacks. This is the end.

This is hardly a great deal for Britain. They lose financial services. If they don't follow EU rules in future then tariffs are introduced. They have lost free movement of goods so all the just in time dependent companies are screwed.

First Up

Richard Hillman wrote:

So the Blueprint for leaving the EU is finished. You get all of the benefits and you get to leave behind all of the drawbacks. This is the end.

It will be the end of business with customers in the EU for UK companies that can't compete anymore because they have lost the benefits of being in the single market.

fash

Richard Hillman wrote: »

So the Blueprint for leaving the EU is finished. You get all of the benefits and you get to leave behind all of the drawbacks. This is the end.

... Or as JP Morgan see it:
.
Aka the break up of the UK, the rejoining of the EU by some of its constituent parts, the impoverishment of the rump state and its eventual settlement into low EU orbit.

ancapailldorcha

Anyway, happy holidays!



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EqEuckvXAAAsrx9?format=jpg&name=large

Dyr

Good piece by Matthew Goodwin on Johnsons deal, giving both barrels to the twitterati:

https://unherd.com/2020/12/boris-has-succeeded-where-all-others-failed/

"A cross-class coalition came together to ask for things that even today are routinely absent in our everyday conversation about Brexit: a more directly accountable democracy, a political system in which serious and meaningful opposition is allowed and a country in which people can seriously influence the decisions that are affecting their daily lives. None of these things were even mentioned as I sat through much of the media coverage of Johnson’s Brexit trade deal this week. Even today, more than four years on from the referendum, our ‘conversation’ about Brexit continues to reduce it simply and crudely to economic self-interest — as if the only interest the people of this country have in politics is to extract financial benefit."

Hopefully the EU now figures out that making economic benefits of the single market contingent on the ever closer political union agenda has run its course.

spurious

Will they be applying to get back by the end of the decade?

ExMachina1000

spurious wrote: »

Will they be applying to get back by the end of the decade?

Will more countries leave by the end of the decade?

ExMachina1000

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Will more countries leave by the end of the decade?

Does it matter. If they sign deals like the UK did, the remaining EU will be fine.

Choosehowevr.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Does it matter. If they sign deals like the UK did, the remaining EU will be fine.

And if they sign new, maybe better deals among themselves

That could start to get messy

timetogo1

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

And if they sign new, maybe better deals among themselves

That could start to get messy

Why would they do that? The UK s gotten rid of the best deal they had for a much inferior one. Most countries don't have the same complex as the UK so wouldn't do that.

Choosehowevr.

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

And if they sign new, maybe better deals among themselves

That could start to get messy

What in your opinion would be better than what exists now?
In simple trade matters we have a single market.
What is better than that?

ExMachina1000

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What in your opinion would be better than what exists now?
In simple trade matters we have a single market.
What is better than that?

Trade yes.

EU jurisdiction over national laws and systems no

Choosehowevr.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What in your opinion would be better than what exists now?
In simple trade matters we have a single market.
What is better than that?

In theory

An alternative EU , free market with different set of rules

Choosehowevr.

Won't happen though

lawred2

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

In theory

An alternative EU , free market with different set of rules

Why?

Choosehowevr.

lawred2 wrote: »

Why?

Cost

I'm happy to let the UK and other countries that might leave try create something better. If it happens, everyone will go for it and it'll be the new EU.

lawred2

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

Cost

Elaborate please

ExMachina1000

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm happy to let the UK and other countries that might leave try create something better. If it happens, everyone will go for it and it'll be the new EU.

Trade only. No over reaching unelected bureaucratic trough fest.

As slippery Farage once said in the EU parliament " who are you"

"The primacy of EU law

EU law is superior to national law. This means that Ireland (along with other member states) cannot pass national laws that contradict EU laws. It also means that an EU law can over-rule an Irish law, even if that Irish law was enacted before the EU law came into effect"