Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

ohnonotgmail

First Up wrote: »

A trade deal includes whatever the parties want. It is expected (to virtual certainty) that India will put UK visas on their list of bargaining chips.

Voting for brexit because of immigration and ending up with more immigration of the type that brexiteers really dont like. You couldn't make it up.

RobMc59

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed. However, if you are negotiating with a country many times smaller than you, rather than a bloc that is of equal size, that places you in a very advantageous position. Britain has very many big trade agreements to do in a very short time. Each of its negotiating partners will be focusing on one. And so they are in no rush. Both of these factors place Britain at a serious disadvantage.

I think the UK will be concentrating on securing equivalence regarding financial services with the EU before contemplating trade deals with other countries, although a trading alliance with other Commonwealth countries(54 including the UK) would be an exciting prospect(this might be the time for Ireland to consider rejoining!).

85603

First Up wrote: »

Well India (like everyone else) knows that the UK is desperate and in no position to argue. Besides, the UK will need someone to replace all those nasty Poles and Romanians that the Brexiteers wanted out.

This is the one that grates my balls about the whole brexit thing.

They're ok with Muslim majority, low gdp, other side of the globe immigrants from jihadi central countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Malaysia.

But they're at war in the media and among themselves about stopping European immigration lest some bad Muslims get through with the crowd.

(hello, you're running a conveyor belt direct from Osama's favorite hangout to London-istan)

Meanwhile, 1.2 million Brits living in the EU, which per capita is more than Europeans living in UK.

6 Brits live in Bangladesh, and 5 of the want to go home and the other one is the husband of the other 5.

I do wonder sometimes if they're ok with people from Kenya and Jamaica and Nigeria and these other funny places because they view non-whites as non-threats, because in the little englander mind those people can never be in the same socio-economic league as the 'real British'.

Europeans however, well they're white too, so they actually do represent a real threat.

Answer to the problem, keep the ones who might be perceived as equal out, but continue letting 'the help' in.

Akrasia

Dr Cockhound wrote: »

I'm somewhat confused Leroy, a trade deal is literally that, a trade deal.

Thus far, the UK has rolled over some of the trade agreements with third party countries, that it previously enjoyed via its membership of the EU, with no additional loss of sovereignty.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1632/idt2/idt2/d013c890-07b5-4987-ac9a-af15a3276a8c/image/816

No additional loss of sovereignty? Why would there be additional losses to roll over existing agreements? But you can be damn sure that these trading partners want the UK to honor the commitments they have already signed up to as part of the original agreement

According to Brexit logic, honoring commitments is losing sovereignty, because if I commit to a high standard of agricultural regulations to sell beef to Europe, this means I cannot unilaterally discard traceability requirements

In reality any trading relationship requires commitments to common standards from both parties. This is why the WTO and trading blocs were established.

Akrasia

Eric Cartman wrote: »

if they do that then its all been for nothing. Or relations will break down a lot.

India has 7 billion people to trade with. The UK’s population is a rounding error. Certainly they are a ‘nice to have’ but they can easily afford to let them sweat on WTO terms for a few years until they are prepared to meet India’s requirements

And then there is Pakistan

Akrasia

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Voting for brexit because of immigration and ending up with more immigration of the type that brexiteers really dont like. You couldn't make it up.

This irony was apparent from the moment the brexiteers decided they did not want freedom of movement with the EU

ancapailldorcha

Eric Cartman wrote: »

if they do that then its all been for nothing. Or relations will break down a lot.

Why? This was obvious from the get-go. Most immigration to the UK comes from outside the EU. This is a logical consequence of Brexit. If racists and xenophobes get triggered then that'll be one tiny positive of all this nonsense.

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Voting for brexit because of immigration and ending up with more immigration of the type that brexiteers really dont like. You couldn't make it up.

Exactly. Slam the door on your closest neighbours while allowing in people from Africa, Asia and the Americans and then whinging about multiculturalism. It's the sort of thing you wouldn't be allowed to make a satire of a few years ago as it'd be considered too ridiculous.

Akrasia

RobMc59 wrote: »

I think the UK will be concentrating on securing equivalence regarding financial services with the EU before contemplating trade deals with other countries, although a trading alliance with other Commonwealth countries(54 including the UK) would be an exciting prospect(this might be the time for Ireland to consider rejoining!).

Certain brexiteers wanted to leave the EU to avoid financial services regulations that were on their way, and others want to avoid existing banking regulations that they feel are holding them back

British banks are planning on diverging from EU banking regulations almost immediately. This is going to make a deal on financial services with the EU impossible and a withdrawal of financial passporting inevitable

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-to-relax-regulation-after-brexit-s9kzs836x

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

I think the UK will be concentrating on securing equivalence regarding financial services with the EU before contemplating trade deals with other countries, although a trading alliance with other Commonwealth countries(54 including the UK) would be an exciting prospect(this might be the time for Ireland to consider rejoining!).

Why would this be exciting? The Commonwealth are mostly poor countries and to suggest Ireland joining is a bit silly.

Part of the reason Commonwealth leaders supported remain in 1975 was so that Britain could agitate for reduced tariffs or eliminated tariffs in the then-EEC. Now they have no voice in Europe because cod.

MadYaker

Yeah it’s a great deal. Almost as good as the deal they had as full members.

I hope the Brexiteers are happy when all these Middle Eastern countries they are supposedly going to trade with demand hundreds of thousands of visas for their people in return for a trade deal. Geniuses all round.

conorhal

MadYaker wrote: »

Yeah it’s a great deal. Almost as good as the deal they had as full members.

I hope the Brexiteers are happy when all these Middle Eastern countries they are supposedly going to trade with demand hundreds of thousands of visas for their people in return for a trade deal. Geniuses all round.

Ya'll sound like bitter ex wives hoping your ex gets an STD from their younger hotter new girlfriend.


It's only the EU that seems to think that a divorce settlement should include the right to diddle the ex after a seperation.

Asian countries will be subject to the same visa requirements as EU nations post brexit. Eastern Europeans will still pick strawberries for fat farmers unwilling to pay a living wage to workers, they'll just aquire them through agencies that will then probably charge the workers a premium for processing a visa for them. Brexit just means they'll have to go home at the end of the job instead of putting their name on the housing list.

VinLieger

conorhal wrote: »

It's only the EU that seems to think that a divorce settlement should include the right to diddle the ex after a seperation.

I think you will find it was the UK who were demanding access to the single market and customs union while at the same time refusing to abide by its rules and regulations which is far more apt use for your crude analogy.

It's absolutely absurd. The UK is the one wanting to fúck while the EU is the one saying use a condom.

Mental this stuff has to be broken down to such basics.

Akrasia

The UK is like the fat balding man who leaves his wife and kids to try his luck on tinder

conorhal

VinLieger wrote: »

I think you will find it was the UK who were demanding access to the single market and customs union while at the same time refusing to abide by its rules and regulations which is far more apt use for your crude analogy.

Actually that's more like quibbling over the alimony, the EU seems baffled that their ex has changed the locks, doesn't want to see them without an invitation and doesn't want them in her fishy box any more.

conorhal

Akrasia wrote: »

The UK is like the fat balding man who leaves his wife and kids to try his luck on tinder

While the EU sits around drinking box wine in the afternoon and staking the UK's social media to see who he's talking to.

VinLieger

conorhal wrote: »

Actually that's more like quibbling over the alimony, the EU seems baffled that their ex has changed the locks, doesn't want to see them without an invitation and doesn't want them in her fishy box any more.

Again your analogy is reversed..... the exact same could be said for the UKs demands regarding the CU and SM which were far more pivotal and critical parts of the negotiations.


I still fail to understand the Uks obsession with fishing beyond rabid nationalistic idiocy.

Thinking about the tariff free deal and it really seems like it's only gonna end up helping large enterprises. Eg Amazon or Asos. Both registered for vat in Ireland and revenue compliant etc. Any small companies will have the EU market effectively shut off to them as there's simply too much work to do. So it's not much of a victory for most companies.

So I'm not sure how the brexiteers think this amounts to a victory for the average british company or person. A bit of a pain in the ass for both Irish consumers and companies too but not so vast as the EU market is still there to retarget towards.

RobMc59

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Thinking about the tariff free deal and it really seems like it's only gonna end up helping large enterprises. Eg Amazon or Asos. Both registered for vat in Ireland and revenue compliant etc. Any small companies will have the EU market effectively shut off to them as there's simply too much work to do. So it's not much of a victory for most companies.

So I'm not sure how the brexiteers think this amounts to a victory for the average british company or person. A bit of a pain in the ass for both Irish consumers and companies too but not so vast as the EU market is still there to retarget towards.

No disrespect but other countries using UK online shopping platforms isn't a hot topic here in the UK.As Rishi Sunak has reiterated,the UK aiming to secure access to the EU market for financial services is a top priority now.

RobMc59

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Why would this be exciting? The Commonwealth are mostly poor countries and to suggest Ireland joining is a bit silly.

Part of the reason Commonwealth leaders supported remain in 1975 was so that Britain could agitate for reduced tariffs or eliminated tariffs in the then-EEC. Now they have no voice in Europe because cod.

If you're looking at it from a British point of view the potential to expand the Commonwealth into a trading alliance could be an exciting prospect.
Since when does being a poor country bar you from being in a trade alliance?
Regarding having a voice in Europe,yes,I'd agree not an ideal situation but that ship has sailed so no point dwelling on it .
There would probably be advantages for Ireland being in the Commonwealth but realistically its probably never going to happen.

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

If you're looking at it from a British point of view the potential to expand the Commonwealth into a trading alliance could be an exciting prospect.
Since when does being a poor country bar you from being in a trade alliance?
Regarding having a voice in Europe,yes,I'd agree not an ideal situation but that ship has sailed so no point dwelling on it .
There would probably be advantages for Ireland being in the Commonwealth but realistically its probably never going to happen.

This is a tautology. Can you please answer the question? What specifically about the Commonwealth should I as a resident of the UK be excited about and what advantages would membership offer Ireland?

RobMc59

RobMc59 wrote: »

No disrespect but other countries using UK online shopping platforms isn't a hot topic here in the UK.As Rishi Sunak has reiterated,the UK aiming to secure access to the EU market for financial services is a top priority now.

No disrespect but I imagine companies that previously sold to the EU be it via online sales or on a grander scale are going to be less profitable and still potentially lose out on trade with the EU are not gonna be the most impressed. So far, not seeing any benefit for the UK of exiting the EU.... Vague claims of freedom and the likes of India and US being on far better footing when it comes to trade negotiations...

RobMc59

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No disrespect but I imagine companies that previously sold to the EU be it via online sales or on a grander scale are going to be less profitable and still potentially lose out on trade with the EU are not gonna be the most impressed. So far, not seeing any benefit for the UK of exiting the EU.... Vague claims of freedom and the likes of India and US being on far better footing when it comes to trade negotiations...

Amazon UK don't appear to be pulling their horns in with massive expansion and investment .
Any advantages to leaving the EU aren't going to be apparent immediately, the increase of paperwork is going to be a headache but not insurmountable imo.

RobMc59

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is a tautology. Can you please answer the question? What specifically about the Commonwealth should I as a resident of the UK be excited about and what advantages would membership offer Ireland?

Some of the potential advantages to Ireland are within the link I've provided here I believe.
The Commonwealth is a ready made 'starter kit' for a trade alliance but you'd have to buy into the concept.I also believe there is strength in unity(which is one reason I wanted the UK to remain).
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/why-the-republic-must-consider-rejoining-the-commonwealth-1.3605886

RobMc59

RobMc59 wrote: »

Amazon UK don't appear to be pulling their horns in with massive expansion and investment .
Any advantages to leaving the EU aren't going to be apparent immediately, the increase of paperwork is going to be a headache but not insurmountable imo.

Amazon uk are a large corporation with a huge technological backbone that allows for easy handling of vat and even have customs declarations filled at this point. They are also vat registered in Ireland which is pretty much only place they ship to outside of the UK. Compare that to other companies shipping to multiple EU locations and having to be revenue compliant in each plus filling all those customs declarations etc. So Amazon uk isn't comparable.

Anyway, wondering how long it'll take for Scotland to pursue a referendum.

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

Some of the potential advantages to Ireland are within the link I've provided here I believe.
The Commonwealth is a ready made 'starter kit' for a trade alliance but you'd have to buy into the concept.I also believe there is strength in unity(which is one reason I wanted the UK to remain).
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/why-the-republic-must-consider-rejoining-the-commonwealth-1.3605886

Paywalled and I fail to see how the Commonwealth helps with trade. It sounds more like a Brexity buzzword to be honest.

Dr Cockhound

Deleted User wrote: »

Amazon uk are a large corporation with a huge technological backbone that allows for easy handling of vat and even have customs declarations filled at this point. They are also vat registered in Ireland which is pretty much only place they ship to outside of the UK. Compare that to other companies shipping to multiple EU locations and having to be revenue compliant in each plus filling all those customs declarations etc. So Amazon uk isn't comparable.

Anyway, wondering how long it'll take for Scotland to pursue a referendum.

In a lot of cases, problems are great drivers for solutions and thus great opportunities.
There's a gap here that will most probably be covered by an AI solution and also for a small service business, handling compliance on behalf of other small businesses.

Donald Trump

RobMc59 wrote: »

Amazon UK don't appear to be pulling their horns in with massive expansion and investment .
Any advantages to leaving the EU aren't going to be apparent immediately, the increase of paperwork is going to be a headache but not insurmountable imo.

The UK were supposed to be hiring 50k additional customs workers during 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/28/extra-50000-border-staff-needed-for-post-brexit-trade-says-gove


The overall minimum threshold wage for an EU person to get a Visa post Brexit was eventually lowered to 25,600

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/28/extra-50000-border-staff-needed-for-post-brexit-trade-says-gove


Lets suppose that the UK finds local workers to do it at wages of 25,000.


That's on-going costs of 1.25bn a year. Processing paperwork that didn't need to be processed previously. That is money that could have been spent doing actual productive things for the UK rather than damage limitation on a self-inflicted wound.



Obviously this is the lower end of the scale in terms of ongoing costs. It ignores that fact that the average wage is probably going to be over 25k. And it ignores the additional expenses in providing other benefits and also in infrastructure.



Your surmountable headache is large enough to spend that sort of money on! Would get ya nearly a month's worth of big red bus NHS money

RobMc59

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Paywalled and I fail to see how the Commonwealth helps with trade. It sounds more like a Brexity buzzword to be honest.

Brexit is done and dusted and even those who voted remain of which I was one,have to get on with it.
Britain is going to be looking for trade deals in the future but isn't desperate as some here have suggested.Despite you living in Britain I wouldn't expect you to be upbeat about the possibility of the UK's potential trade deals elsewhere.Nothing 'brexity'about me ACD,I'm as concerned about my prospects in the future as you.Will I be able to live in Ireland?(wife ok as she's Irish)Will my qualifications be recognised?-it works both ways!

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

Brexit is done and dusted and even those who voted remain of which I was one,have to get on with it.
Britain is going to be looking for trade deals in the future but isn't desperate as some here have suggested.Despite you living in Britain I wouldn't expect you to be upbeat about the possibility of the UK's potential trade deals elsewhere.Nothing 'brexity'about me ACD,I'm as concerned about my prospects in the future as you.Will I be able to live in Ireland?(wife ok as she's Irish)Will my qualifications be recognised?-it works both ways!

This is now my second response after my initial question and you have yet to highlight anything "exciting" about the Commonwealth or any reason why Ireland should join.

It will of course be easier for the UK to ratify trade deals. The problem is that they're negotiating with a vastly weaker hand with a department that isn't even five years old. All the deals that have been rolled over are just fragments of the status quo.

If you can point to any tangible positives, please feel free to do so but given that I've asked twice about the Commonwealth and got no answer means my hopes aren't high.