Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

First Up

Imreoir2 wrote:

What makes you think a 'United States of Europe' is the end goal of the EU? Where is it mentioned in the treaties?

Dr. Roast seems sure that some if not all 27 member states are just itching to have their identity and sovereignty subsumed into a yet to be described or explained "superstate".

It matters not at all that there isn't a word about that in any EU treaty, nor has any government or political party in any EU country ever campaigned or been supported in that ambition.

It matters just as little that such an outcome is impossible unless agreed to by all EU members. This nonsense is routinely raised and just as routinely laughed out of court. We have to take it as an imminent threat.

The reality of course is that having run out of anything credible to say, the advocates of this nonsense have to invent something to disguise their real reasons.

Which are - they don't like Poles and Romanians.

ohnonotgmail

Doctor Roast wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/08/gove-accuses-eu-of-indoctrinating-children-with-cartoon-booklet

well if Gove says it then it must be true.

Doctor Roast

First Up wrote: »

Dr. Roast seems sure that some if not all 27 member states are just itching to have their identity and sovereignty subsumed into a yet to be described or explained "superstate".

It matters not at all that there isn't a word about that in any EU treaty, nor has any government or political party in any EU country ever campaigned or been supported in that ambition.

It matters just as little that such an outcome is impossible unless agreed to by all EU members. This nonsense is routinely raised and just as routinely laughed out of court. We have to take it as an imminent threat.

The reality of course is that having run out of anything credible to say, the advocates of this nonsense have to invent something to disguise their real reasons.

Which are - they don't like Poles and Romanians.

Ah here...
I'll ask you the same question so.. Why does a trading bloc need its own parliament, governmental buildings, courts and laws?

First Up

Doctor Roast wrote:

Ah here... I'll ask you the same question so.. Why does a trading bloc need its own parliament, governmental buildings, courts and laws?

It's a single market. Look it up.

Seth Brundle

Doctor Roast wrote: »

Ah here...
I'll ask you the same question so.. Why does a trading bloc need its own parliament, governmental buildings, courts and laws?

Think it through please :rolleyes:

Imreoir2

Doctor Roast wrote: »

Ah here...
I'll ask you the same question so.. Why does a trading bloc need its own parliament, governmental buildings, courts and laws?

Its not just a trading block. Its a supernational union of soverign memberstates with political as well as economic objectives, like preventing conflict between the states of Europe through developing ever closer economic and political union between them. Its very different to a trade block like NAFTA, and also very different to a federal nation state like the US or Germany. While it acts like both in certain circumstances, it is not the same and is not trying to be either.

Doctor Roast

First Up wrote: »

It's a single market. Look it up.

I'll tell you what, head on over to any of the EU official facebook pages and see what it says under the title....

First Up

Doctor Roast wrote:

I'll tell you what, head on over to any of the EU official facebook pages and see what it says under the title....

There's a bit more to the EU than what you will get on Facebook but feel free to expose their evil intentions.

Seth Brundle

Just saw this over on the cycling forum...

https://twitter.com/MCRCycleSam/status/1345427951115001857

leakyboots

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/03/britons-living-in-spain-barred-from-madrid-flight-in-post-brexit-travel-row

road_high

Was in M&S Newbridge today and stock levels were very low. They had signs up on shelves apologising (saying it was due to an internal issue or something) but it struck me, was this Brexit related? Nearly all their stock is produced in England or at least distributed from there? I know post Christmas too has an effect due to people bulk buying, holidays and less deliveries

Junkyard Tom

The Sunlit Uplands look a bit cloudy.

London’s financial sector started to feel the full effects of Brexit on the first trading day of 2021 as nearly €6bn of EU share dealing shifted away from the City to facilities in European capitals.

ft.com/content

alchemist33

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Just saw this over on the cycling forum...

https://twitter.com/MCRCycleSam/status/1345427951115001857

I used to get a weekly magazine from the UK, but it always came via Sweden for some reason. And ironically the same magazine often lectured me about the environment. It's all a bit mad, but also stupid of those saddle manufacturers who for some reason didn't see it coming.

alchemist33

alchemist33 wrote: »

I used to get a weekly magazine from the UK, but it always came via Sweden for some reason. And ironically the same magazine often lectured me about the environment. It's all a bit mad, but also stupid of those saddle manufacturers who for some reason didn't see it coming.

Where do they say they didn't see it coming?
They might have seen it well in advance but decided to wait and see, or not to bother.

alchemist33

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Where do they say they didn't see it coming?
They might have seen it well in advance but decided to wait and see, or not to bother.

That would even be worse

Leroy42

alchemist33 wrote: »

It's all a bit mad, but also stupid of those saddle manufacturers who for some reason didn't see it coming.

It depends. They may have looked at alternatives and found none of them to make economic sense.

Sure they may have thought about moving production back to the UK, but that implies that 1, there are the available skillset and materials, and 2 that creating a UK only production run is economic in itself.

Also very much depends on the size of their UK market. Europe has a much bigger, traditionally, market for cycling. So given a choice they may have opted for the time being to concentrate on their larger market and await for things to work themselves out in the UK.

J Mysterio

https://twitter.com/g_gosden/status/1348525274867126272?s=20

Seth Brundle

oh please don't let him move here (although I know that he would spin it that it is neither a failure nor a disaster).

https://twitter.com/RoadTaxWhypay/status/1351513544806772738

ambro25

Seth Brundle wrote: »

oh please don't let him move here (although I know that he would spin it that it is neither a failure nor a disaster).

https://twitter.com/RoadTaxWhypay/status/1351513544806772738

He should be made to face a lifetime residence visa & nationality-applying ban in any EU member state that he applies for.

Same for Cameron, May, Johnson, Gove, Patel, Baker, Francois, Banks, Dyson, (etc, etc, etc: any Brexit-pushing figurehead since 2015).

And their entire families, including extended.

They should not be able to escape the binfire that they turned the UK into. At least not anywhere in the EU.

ancapailldorcha

ambro25 wrote: »

He should be made to face a lifetime residence visa & nationality-applying ban in any EU member state that he applies for.

Same for Cameron, May, Johnson, Gove, Patel, Baker, Francois, Banks, Dyson, (etc, etc, etc: any Brexit-pushing figurehead since 2015).

And their entire families, including extended.

They should not be able to escape the binfire that they turned the UK into. At least not anywhere in the EU.

The devil tends to look after his own so I wouldn't get your hopes up.

ambro25

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The devil tends to look after his own so I wouldn't get your hopes up.

Rest assured that they're not...

...I just lapsed momentarily into respectability, wishing for some equitable and proportional retribution on them (instead of the usual and stronger wish to run into one of them at night in some dark alley :evil smiley: )

joeguevara

joeguevara wrote: »

Dublin and Luxembourg are world round fund financial centres. The reason why London dominated was that it was English speaking and had highly skilled personnel but mainly because it was in the EU. If it’s not it loses its advantage for EU business. Yes of course it services Asia etc. But lose EU which will cause a brain drain other markets may follow. If it loses its tie to Switzerland because Swiss Banks can’t passport into EU from London then you will have lost two major markets in quick succession. I’m not saying London will be no more. But it will have lost its dominance and commercial advantage, the article that you quoted was an opinion piece by a British analyst which is mainly hit and hope but no tangible evidence to base the opinion on.

joeguevara wrote: »

To get a bank authorised in Ireland by the Cemtral Bank of Ireland takes close to a year. A Funds Management Company 7-9 months. MiFID Investment Company 6-9 months. insurance Undertaking g about a year. Not only the time the cash resources and people resources to prepare the application, the underlying business plan, programme of operations, policies, processes, systems and controls is huge. The reasonS why you haven’t the large scale moving of financial entities is numerous. Firstly even with all the warnings of the possibility of Brexit, nobody took the threat that serious. New AML required large scale implementation, same as GDPR, same as cyber security, Consumer Protection updates, esma guidelines (list goes in). Business Units, Compliance! Risk, IT, internal audit Legal,were at breaking point trying to get things that were definite done. Not only didn’t they believe that Brexit wasn’t going to happen, they didn’t have the resources to set about getting a new EU entity authorised. In Risk Appetite Statements Brexit Risk was low, and notwithstanding that to mitigate it even further, all the guidance coming from the U.K. was that the U.K. would be treated as third country with passporting rights.

When Brexit did happen the Sh1t hit the fan. They were basically starting from scratch on how to move International Head Offices to within the EU ensuring business continuity for customers and assurances to regulators that the new entity would be adequately resourced with fit and proper people. Now it’s as not as simple as banging an application form to a regulator and job done. They would firstly have to have chosen an appropriate location. Then find a building. Then start the legal process and map out each person who will take over the new role. People who didn’t want to move would probably be suitable for redundancy. Then relocating entire workforce’s would have to be planned, schools, homes etc. This is not something that just takes place overnight. Also the European Head Quarters of Insurance Company’s and Banks are a systemic risk for the entire EU financial system and therefore probably would double the length of an authorisation.

modelling, stress testing, solvency testing, liquidity testing would have to go about three stages with the local regulators and then same again with ECB. Central Bank is processing 100 banks insurers and asset managers.

Even Brexit did come there was uncertainty especially as Theresa May floundered. firms didn’t want to push the relocation which would eat in considerably to the bottom line if it was going to be a wasted exercise. Therefore the time taken to get authorised, the sheer project management of moving, as well as additional regulatory requirements makes things move at a snails pace.

Also, we have a years transition and a lot of firms are still hedging that they will be allowed to move.

Let’s face it any EU business that the U.K. had will be gone in 11 months. The sheer loss of that revenue as well every tax revenue that employees had, car tax, property tax, council tax, everything would dwarf any saving that U.K. will make because of ceasing to be a net contributor.

Politicians who are usually so far removed from the operations of a regulated entity are chuckling to themselves that there is minimal interest and it’s Round 1 to the U.K. wil some shock when the tsunami of revenue, people, jobs and it everything that it creates will rip through the City and bring it all over the EU.

Have not been on the thread in ages for personal and work reasons. I had posted a number of times 11 months 3 weeks ago about the possible effects of a hard brexit on the UK financial industry. I was met with hostility and even my expertise and knowledge called into question. I am very close to this area. Neither here nor there.

But I am interested in the response from the posters who were saying that the city of London would have no adverse effect from brexit.

21 days in and this is the impact https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/brexodus-of-jobs-from-city-of-london-to-continue-says-eu-commissioner-1.4462606%3fmode=amp and its only going to get worse.

Ardent

Financial Times wrote:

Johnson’s attempts to break the deadlock over a menu of scallops and turbot — supposedly a humorous nod by von der Leyen to stalled talks on fishing quotas — were greeted with icy silence. “At one point, the whole EU side were sitting with their arms folded, saying nothing,” says one. The encounter started with von der Leyen telling Johnson to put on his Covid-19 mask and deteriorated from there. One UK negotiator said: “We all got back to the ambassador’s residence afterwards and looked at each thinking: ‘Oh my god.’”


Shortly afterwards, the prime minister called von der Leyen to try to patch things up. “We need to defibrillate the talks,” he said. “A bit like that scene in Pulp Fiction with Uma Thurman.” The commission president was nonplussed by the reference to Thurman’s character getting an adrenaline shot. “Be careful Boris,” she replied. “You’re talking to a medical doctor.”

https://amp.ft.com/content/cc6b0d9a-d8cc-4ddb-8c57-726df018c10e

That's an excellent article.

Seth Brundle

I really don't know what to say to this...

https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1353471490348474369

Professor Moriarty

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I really don't know what to say to this...

https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1353471490348474369

Evans Pritchard's articles are always full of provocative sh1te. The headlines on his articles are pathetic click baits. His elitist rantings are some of the most bizarre and ridiculous in The Telegraph - and he has plenty of competition. I stopped reading his articles on principle.

Donald Trump

Here is a headline on the BBC. "Brexit: Five surprising consequences"

https://www.bbc.com/news/55633632

I'm not sure what their definition of "surprising" is? They only needed to look at what current third countries have to do. For the NI issue, that was well flagged by businesses in advance.

Ardent

EU citizens offered financial incentives to leave UK

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/26/eu-citizens-offered-financial-incentives-to-leave-uk

Knew the Tories were xenophobic but that's quite something..

Qiaonasen

Brexit appears to be a titanic success so far...

Leroy42

Throughout the debate and process of Brexit, fishing was held up as the clearest and easiest to understand example of where the Brexit dividend lay. That it was so immaterial was passed off as an example of the great rewards awaiting Brexit Britain.


It is thus ironic that fishing should be the first and most public casualty of Brexit and among the first sectors to be calling it out as a failure.