Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

Peregrinus

Kidchameleon wrote: »

So, Ireland cannot independently make a trade agreement with the UK. That was my point.

And the UK cannot independently make a trade deal with Ireland. That's mine.

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Again, I'm not sure why you are trying to obfuscate this, we are not independent within the EU. Weather that is good or bad for us is besides the point. The UK has decided they want to make their own way in the world and more power to them.

I'm not trying to obfuscate this; I'm trying to clarify it.

We are independent within the EU. As a country, we're in the unique position of having been both dependent within the UK and independent within the EU andy, by God, we know the difference between dependence and independence.

It is our independent choice to exercise our sovereignty collectively with other countries, and thereby magnify its effect. It is the UK's choice to exercise its sovereignty in isolation from other countries, and thereby diminish its effect. If you genuinely want "more power to the UK", as you say, you should find their present course bitterly disappointing.

Salary Negotiator

conorhal wrote: »

BS, its petty spite and you know it.

Spain likes to whip up a Gibraltar crisis every time it's government is unpopular and feeling impotent so it bullies a small sovereign territory to generate popularity via nationalistic fervor.
This is nothing but rooster-pricking from a flailing, spiteful socalist government backed by a flailing spiteful EU.

Let the EU back Catalonia instead, they actually want to leave Spain, oh no wait, Catalonia they threw under the bus.

I’d agree that Spain are playing silly buggers here but the EU is being entirely consistent in backing members and over non members.

The UK only have themselves to blame for putting themselves in this position.

It is tough on the people of Gibraltar though.

Professor Moriarty

Kidchameleon wrote: »

So, Ireland cannot independently make a trade agreement with the UK. That was my point. Again, I'm not sure why you are trying to obfuscate this, we are not independent within the EU. Weather that is good or bad for us is besides the point. The UK has decided they want to make their own way in the world and more power to them.

Here's what you said:

"Britain is not in control over its own destiny because Ireland is in the EU".

Nobody has said that but you. And it is utterly wrong.

I'm not yet sure if you are incapable of understanding simple logic and facts or are deliberately ignoring simple logic and facts.

Peregrinus

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

I’d agree that Spain are playing silly buggers here but the EU is being entirely consistent in backing members and over non members.

The UK only have themselves to blame for putting themselves in this position.

It is tough on the people of Gibraltar though.

Not nearly as tough on the people of Gibraltar as Brexit is, though. Particularly the hard Brexit that the UK government decided to pursue after the people of Gibraltar voted 96% in favour of staying in the EU.

joeguevara

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

I’d agree that Spain are playing silly buggers here but the EU is being entirely consistent in backing members and over non members.

The UK only have themselves to blame for putting themselves in this position.

It is tough on the people of Gibraltar though.

Gibraltar voted 96% to remain in the EU. All Spain wants is to be able to negotiate on the future of Gibraltar.

conorhal

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

I’d agree that Spain are playing silly buggers here but the EU is being entirely consistent in backing members and over non members.

The UK only have themselves to blame for putting themselves in this position.

It is tough on the people of Gibraltar though.

This can't be characterized as realpolitik. The accession of Spain involved realpolitik as it did with Cyprus, both requiring that they sort out territorial disputes before joining the club.
This BS isn't intended to settle any territorial dispute, it's quite clearly spite intended ignite conflict rather then resolve it and $h1t on a parade the day the UK leaves, pretending it's anything else is disingenuous. It also says a lot about what kind of a club the EU has become.

Peregrinus

conorhal wrote: »

This can't be characterized as realpolitik. The accession of Spain involved realpolitik as it did with Cyprus. This isn't intended to settle any territorial dispute, it's quite clearly spite intended ignite conflict rather then resolve it and $h1t on a parade the day the UK leaves, pretending it's anything else is disingenuous.

This has been the Spanish and EU position for about two years now, and has been much reported on and discussed. If the publication of a new report on this story at the present time is an attempt to rain on the Brexity parade, then I think you are pointing the finger not at Spain or at the EU but at the Observer.

spaceHopper

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/01/johnson-to-impose-full-customs-checks-on-goods-from-eu-report

Looks like if Borris doesn't het his way we'll have a had border and a resurgence of terrorism

daheff

A border does not necessarily mean a return to violence. Constant talk that a border will mean violence could end up being a self fulfilling prophecy.

road_high

Brexiteers need to chill out and realise no one isthat bothered either way. Yes a good free trade deal would be ideal for Ireland but probably even more important for us is that high standards are maintained and there isn’t dumping of cheap imports particularly on the food side of things. the UK element of our exports has been dropping dropping as a% of Ireland’s overall trade now for quite a while and especially with currency fluctuations something business has been keen to reduce the exposure to.

road_high

retalivity wrote: »

It begins - EU to back Spanish claims over Gibraltar

I think Gibraltar is a bit of an emotive hot potato especially for Spain. My feeling is it’s up the people of Gibraltar to decide their destiny and far as I know they’re overwhelmingly pro British. Are they Spanish people that have become British over the centuries or did a lot of migrants from the U.K. move down there?
If they don’t want to be part of Spain then what is the point of forcing them to be?

theological

The day after Brexit and Johnson is signalling that he will only accept a Canada or Australia style FTA with the EU. No alignment, no automatic rights to fishing waters and no role for the ECJ in deciding British affairs.

This year will be an interesting one. I suspect he's going for this sort of arrangement to signal to the US that he is open for business.

I think coming more into the US sphere of influence is good for the UK. I'm going to be interested to see if Johnson can do that and secure an FTA with the EU.

joeguevara

theological wrote: »

The day after Brexit and Johnson is signalling that he will only accept a Canada or Australia style FTA with the EU. No alignment, no automatic rights to fishing waters and no role for the ECJ in deciding British affairs.

This year will be an interesting one. I suspect he's going for this sort of arrangement to signal to the US that he is open for business.

I think coming more into the US sphere of influence is good for the UK. I'm going to be interested to see if Johnson can do that and secure an FTA with the EU.

UK are in for a wake up call if they think they can demand what they want. They have no experience of negotiating international deals without the support of the EU. Boris is banking on the fact that they are a defence ally of the US as collateral for his support but Trump has already started bullying the UK. I posted this earlier. Trump smells blood. https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-trade-war-uk-brexit-huawei-iran-boris-johnson-2020-1?r=US&IR=T

road_high

joeguevara wrote: »

UK are in for a wake up call if they think they can demand what they want. They have no experience of negotiating international deals without the support of the EU. Boris is banking on the fact that they are a defence ally of the US as collateral for his support but Trump has already started bullying the UK. I posted this earlier. Trump smells blood. https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-trade-war-uk-brexit-huawei-iran-boris-johnson-2020-1?r=US&IR=T

Things not all as rosy as they are made out to be so, I wasn’t aware the US side was so negative. We seem to only hear the BoJo chest beating over here.
It’s great for them no doubt to dream “big” with the USA but it brushes over the existing reality of where their economy is now at and the potential pain of an upheaval to that. Little ole irrelevant ireland after all is one of the UKs top trading partners. Way above all these seemingly more important places like Australia or Asian economies. In trade it’s a lot easier hold onto what you actually have than to grow new ones. A bird in the hand and all that.
Bit like the business I’m in abandoning our steady, reliable clients who sure as the seasons come and go will buy X amount of product off us. And junking them for completely new untested ones who may not even pay us!!!

Infini

To paraphrase a great quote in that the EU will get its way in any negotiation including ourselves,

"But you see you forgot one thing, Boris, our numbers are BIGGER than yours"

Don't play ball, get locked out of EU markets, made uncompetitive, economy goes tits up and ultimately they're in a very dark and stinking place facing the abyss, the transition agreement is the only reason they havent tanked in the last 24 hours and if they dont agree quickly itll be like dumping their economy in an acid vat and the damage will corrode their economy further, their currency already collapsed in the space of a few weeks after the referendum the question now is will it collapse AGAIN when they fail to actually comprehend reality in front of them.

As for the US? They'll utterly tear them apart I mean look at what happened after WW2 they utterly cleaned them out. Some people never learn but sure flegs and all more important than actually improving their country...

Chris_Heilong

The UK dont care but at the same time the EU could change their rules so there does not need to be a border but I dont think they will be doing that.

Lmklad

spaceHopper wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/01/johnson-to-impose-full-customs-checks-on-goods-from-eu-report

Looks like if Borris doesn't het his way we'll have a had border and a resurgence of terrorism

The UK have already voted for no border between IRL and NI. The border is now the Irish Sea. This was in the agreement the parliament voted for last week.

Lmklad

spaceHopper wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/01/johnson-to-impose-full-customs-checks-on-goods-from-eu-report

Looks like if Borris doesn't het his way we'll have a had border and a resurgence of terrorism

The UK have already voted for no border between IRL and NI. The border is now the Irish Sea. This was in the agreement the parliament voted for last week.

Atlantic Dawn

There will have to be a proper border with NIRL to stop our market being distorted by inferior products imported through it.

Seth Brundle

spaceHopper wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/01/johnson-to-impose-full-customs-checks-on-goods-from-eu-report

Looks like if Borris doesn't het his way we'll have a had border and a resurgence of terrorism

The UK leaving the EU and their insistence on not following regulatory alignment always meant that there would be a form of trade border somewhere between Britain and the EU. Everyone involved agreed to have it down the Irish sea.
Did you really think there would be no border at all? Did you trust Johnson's lies?
Anyhow it has nothing to do with Leo in fairness.

Beasty

Threads merged

road_high

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

There will have to be a proper border with NIRL to stop our market being distorted by inferior products imported through it.

That border will be in the Irish Sea though. That’s why the unionists were having such a meltdown but BoJo threw them under the bus regardless. He’s definitely not flavour of the month with them anymore

road_high

Chris_Heilong wrote: »

The UK dont care but at the same time the EU could change their rules so there does not need to be a border but I dont think they will be doing that.

Why would the EU change it’s agreed rules just to suit a third party? The U.K. once had a part in changing those rules. Now they have no such influence and if they want to trade must comply

theological

Infini wrote: »

To paraphrase a great quote in that the EU will get its way in any negotiation including ourselves,

"But you see you forgot one thing, Boris, our numbers are BIGGER than yours"

Don't play ball, get locked out of EU markets, made uncompetitive, economy goes tits up and ultimately they're in a very dark and stinking place facing the abyss, the transition agreement is the only reason they havent tanked in the last 24 hours and if they dont agree quickly itll be like dumping their economy in an acid vat and the damage will corrode their economy further, their currency already collapsed in the space of a few weeks after the referendum the question now is will it collapse AGAIN when they fail to actually comprehend reality in front of them.

As for the US? They'll utterly tear them apart I mean look at what happened after WW2 they utterly cleaned them out. Some people never learn but sure flegs and all more important than actually improving their country...

Not as simple as this. The EU definitely needs access to London's financial services markets. Being locked out without an alternative would be terrible for the EU.

The idea that the UK has nothing to offer the EU or the US is stupid frankly. As is the bravado about this on Boards.

The UK has a trade surplus with the EU which is worth maintaining.

The US is already one of the biggest trading partners with the UK. Liberalising trade is in everyone's interest. It's definitely in the UK's interest to situate itself closer to the US.

The currency argument is also off. The IMF in 2015 said sterling was overvalued. An adjustment was probably helpful for exports. Also the strength of currency is not indicative of economic performance. If it was that would mean Britain is a better performing economy than America because sterling is stronger which is obviously false.

listermint

theological wrote: »

Not as simple as this. The EU definitely needs access to London's financial services markets.

Specifically what markets and why. Details please. What market and for what purpose something they can't replicate internally or obtain elsewhere.

Be more specific since it's your central thesis.

Jizique

listermint wrote: »

Specifically what markets and why. Details please. What market and for what purpose something they can't replicate internally or obtain elsewhere.

Be more specific since it's your central thesis.

I would also love an answer to this question.
Do German corporates need access to London if they want to borrow from investors?
Traders will trade whatever traders want to trade, but do corporates and govts need access to London? What specifically does London provide that can’t be found in Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin or elsewhere

threeball

theological wrote: »

Not as simple as this. The EU definitely needs access to London's financial services markets. Being locked out without an alternative would be terrible for the EU.

The idea that the UK has nothing to offer the EU or the US is stupid frankly. As is the bravado about this on Boards.

The UK has a trade surplus with the EU which is worth maintaining.

The US is already one of the biggest trading partners with the UK. Liberalising trade is in everyone's interest. It's definitely in the UK's interest to situate itself closer to the US.

The currency argument is also off. The IMF in 2015 said sterling was overvalued. An adjustment was probably helpful for exports. Also the strength of currency is not indicative of economic performance. If it was that would mean Britain is a better performing economy than America because sterling is stronger which is obviously false.

If the EU withdraw passporting rights then there is no London financial services market. They'll be scurrying out of there as fast as their Maybach and Bentley can carry them. If that happens it's all over for the UK.

The Brits are bringing a knife to a gunfight and like WW2 they're in over their head unless the yanks come to the rescue. Unfortunately for them Trump has being tickling their genitals to hide the fact he's just about to bend them over. He won't like the Huawei deal either and has a history of being spiteful.

CelticRambler

theological wrote: »

The EU definitely needs access to London's financial services markets. Being locked out without an alternative would be terrible for the EU.

Why? What specifically does the EU need from a non-EU London that it can't get from Zurich, Singapore or New York?

theological wrote: »

The idea that the UK has nothing to offer the EU or the US is stupid frankly.

Maybe ... but again I ask the question: what, specifically, has the UK to offer the EU or the US that can't be sourced or replicated elsewhere ... other than 60 million British consumers and long-stay-in-Britain visas?

joeguevara

Brexit Horse walks into a Bar.

Barman says: why the long farce?

joeguevara

threeball wrote: »

If the EU withdraw passporting rights then there is no London financial services market. They'll be scurrying out of there as fast as their Maybach and Bentley can carry them. If that happens it's all over for the UK.

The Brits are bringing a knife to a gunfight and like WW2 they're in over their head unless the yanks come to the rescue. Unfortunately for them Trump has being tickling their genitals to hide the fact he's just about to bend them over. He won't like the Huawei deal either and has a history of being spiteful.

All EU countries and EEA entities have passporting rights for financial services. This means that let’s say a Lichtenstein insurance company can open a branch in Ireland and provide services. If they didn’t want to open a branch they can do so over the internet. No other country have these rights. The U.K. has ceased to be a contracting party to the EEA so unless the U.K. Rejoins which they say won’t, no financially regulated entity such as a Bank, Investment Firm, Insurance Firm, Fund, Fund Management Company or insurance intermediary will be able to provide any services in the EU. If a U.K. entity wants to provide services, they will Be required to move the heart and mind of the financial entity to an EU country. Heart and Mind are the Senior Management, Executive Directors and Heads of Key Business Units. EU Regulators have completely tightened up firms setting up letterbox entities and still have the Heart and Mind elsewhere. They would also be subject to EU liquify and/or Solvency requirements which would require ring fenced capital to be held in specific EU jurisdictions.All charges and taxes related to the financial services will be collected in the EU State and contributed to the Economy.

Boris may be bullish and say that the EU will not withdraw passporting rights but if we look at a real life Example I.e, Switzerland they have no passporting rights.

So any U.K. entity with an EU customer base will have to redomiciled from U.K. to an EU state. Not only will the U.K. lose the tax take from the corporate but also from PAYE workers and the huge taxes on bonuses. it gets worse, there will be a brain drain in that all the highly qualified personnel will probably move to the redomiciled country which will leave a vaccum of skilled financial professionals.

If that isn’t bad enough, it gets worse. As Switzerland has no passporting rights to the EU, the vast majority of Swiss International firms have their EU head office in the U.K. in order to passport around Europe. So these will have to be relocated to an EU State.

In one fail swoop London will have probably lost all of its EU business as well as all of the key Swiss business.

All of this is going to be an absolute nightmare. Why would the EU grant the U.K. passporting rights when if they did so, they would not get to inherit a financial services industry and all the revenue that it generates.