Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

Leroy42

ambro25 wrote: »

There is a difference?

Exactly. No deal would have been considered a complete no runner prior to the ref. Nobody ran on it. Nobody ran on WTO rules, every deal being subject tot he whims of the EU.

To say that No deal is anything other than a complete disaster in terms of what Brexit was supposed to be is nonsense.

In terms of trade, the UK has already spent 6bn on preparations, how much more will it cost and what will be the cost of running with a no deal, not in terms of lost trade, just money spent on extra customs staff, extra bureaucracy?

The EU is an enemy because it won't grant the UK the easiest deal in history.

What's the point in the EU even trying when Brexiteers are like this.. It was never about the UK or its sovereignty. It was about a hatred for the EU and its people. Downcow famously wanted the US to destroy the EU in a war after Brexit. I'd say a few of the other ones on here would also like to see that. How about it crypto?

CelticRambler

cryptocurrency wrote: »

British eurosceptics had always felt uncomfortable with the European imposition of a new order as opposed to the UK’s evolution over a millennium.

Someone needs to read up on their history of Europe. I'm pretty sure (but open to correction) that the "evolution" of Britain over two millennia included the imposition of successive new orders, starting with the Romans and continuing with the Normans. They were Europeans weren't they?

What about King Billy - a good Dutchman from the house of Orange. He imposed a new order too, didn't he?

And of course, the current head of state in the UK has intricate relationships with several unelected, undemocratic royal families across Europe.

Yeah, Britain is so different to the rest of Europe ... :rolleyes:

theological

Deleted User wrote: »

The EU is an enemy because it won't grant the UK the easiest deal in history.

What's the point in the EU even trying when Brexiteers are like this.. It was never about the UK or its sovereignty. It was about a hatred for the EU and its people. Downcow famously wanted the US to destroy the EU in a war after Brexit. I'd say a few of the other ones on here would also like to see that. How about it crypto?

This thread is too full of up and down jitters both from the hard-remainers and the hard-leavers.

There is a lot that can still happen before the end of the year.

I think Johnson is right to take the strategy that there should be no direct copying of EU rules into UK law. The political statement that Barnier is moaning about right now doesn't suggest that there should be any auto-copying of EU rules either.

There are other mechanisms that can be used and that can be explored.

I would be in agreement with other posters of a Leave persuasion that a no deal WTO exit would be preferable to agreeing to autocopy EU rules indefinitely but there is still time to see what unfolds.

CelticRambler

theological wrote: »

I would be in agreement with other posters of a Leave persuasion that a no deal WTO exit would be preferable to agreeing to autocopy EU rules indefinitely but there is still time to see what unfolds.

They could always agree to a Swiss-style refusal to auto-copy EU rules indefinitely and exercise their sovereign right to so refuse every so often, suffer the loss of funds and market access for a while, and then reluctantly but definitively copy-and-paste the original rules into the statute books.

theological

CelticRambler wrote: »

They could always agree to a Swiss-style refusal to auto-copy EU rules indefinitely and exercise their sovereign right to so refuse every so often, suffer the loss of funds and market access for a while, and then reluctantly but definitively copy-and-paste the original rules into the statute books.

The UK is not interested in a Swiss style arrangement with the EU. That's been pretty clearly stated by the current government. As as a result, it seems to be willing to accept more friction. The Canada model would be better but Barnier is insisting that the UK auto-copy EU law for that which is obviously absurd.

If Canada doesn't do it, the UK definitely shouldn't do it.

First Up

theological wrote:

I would be in agreement with other posters of a Leave persuasion that a no deal WTO exit would be preferable to agreeing to autocopy EU rules indefinitely but there is still time to see what unfolds.

It isn't either/or. If goods coming from the. UK don't meet EU standards, they don't get in - deal, no deal, WTO or anything else.

Spanish Eyes

No deal will be decided by 1 July anyway. That is the cut off date for uk to apply for yet another extension. If they don't it looks like a No Deal for me anyway.

EU are cool and keeping it cool. They cannot and will not give UK anything better than current membership has.

It could be ramping up again though. Interesting times ahead. EU will keep a cool head hopefully. They have plenty of very intelligent people in their court now.

Dominic Cummings is a sinister individual to me. But I see him as the mudguard to BJ who is as lazy as FK and will blame it all on DC anyway.

theological

First Up wrote: »

It isn't either/or. If goods coming from the. UK don't meet EU standards, they don't get in - deal, no deal, WTO or anything else.

Goodness you have a habit of claiming things I never claimed.

Of course if the UK is going to sell to the EU those products need to conform to EU standards, in the same way as if the UK sells to the US these goods will need to conform to US standards and so on for other markets.

However, the US doesn't insist that the UK changes its laws in order to change with it automatically in step with what they decide in Congress. Likewise the UK shouldn't do this for the EU.

The EU can decide what it wants for the citizens of its members, but the EU should not be able to determine UK law and UK domestic standards.

Padre_Pio

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

No deal will be decided by 1 July anyway. That is the cut off date for uk to apply for yet another extension. If they don't it looks like a No Deal for me anyway.

EU are cool and keeping it cool. They cannot and will not give UK anything better than current membership has.

It could be ramping up again though. Interesting times ahead. EU will keep a cool head hopefully. They have plenty of very intelligent people in their court now.

Dominic Cummings is a sinister individual to me. But I see him as the mudguard to BJ who is as lazy as FK and will blame it all on DC anyway.

Paddy Power offering 5 to 1 that Britain will be back in the EU by 2026

CelticRambler

theological wrote: »

The UK is not interested in a Swiss style arrangement with the EU. That's been pretty clearly stated by the current government. As as a result, it seems to be willing to accept more friction.

Perhaps - and yet there were many Brexiters who cited Switzerland as an example of "frictionless" border controls in the debate about what would be appropriate and practical for NI.

Furthermore, the EU has a fairly simple process for reducing the friction between the bloc and the independent sovereign state whenever the people of the latter express their lack of interest in regulatory alignment: slam the gates. Brexiters would do well to pay heed to the recent examples.

theological

CelticRambler wrote: »

Perhaps - and yet there were many Brexiters who cited Switzerland as an example of "frictionless" border controls in the debate about what would be appropriate and practical for NI.

Furthermore, the EU has a fairly simple process for reducing the friction between the bloc and the independent sovereign state whenever the people of the latter express their lack of interest in regulatory alignment: slam the gates. Brexiters would do well to pay heed to the recent examples.

Northern Ireland is now resolved thanks to the withdrawal agreement.

We're onto trade matters which is what we're talking about. We're discussing about how close the UK should stick to the EU. My answer, not as close as Switzerland and probably about as close as Canada is.

And if the UK is going to have a trading relationship with Canada's. Then it logically follows that the UK should have the same level of commitment in respect to regulatory alignment, and should have an arbitration mechanism similar to Canada's.

There are other better options to be considered than copying the rulebook. For example an independent arbitration mechanism. Definitely there can be no ECJ jurisdiction over the UK.

First Up

theological wrote:

However, the US doesn't insist that the UK changes its laws in order to change with it automatically in step with what they decide in Congress.

Nor will the EU, unless the laws in question affect how goods are produced in or coming from the UK.

Every EU country makes its own laws.

Spanish Eyes

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Paddy Power offering 5 to 1 that Britain will be back in the EU by 2026

If I was a betting person I'd go for it, might get a proxy to do it for me

CelticRambler

theological wrote: »

Northern Ireland is now resolved thanks to the withdrawal agreement.

We're onto trade matters which is what we're talking about.

For all intents and purposes, the English Channel is no more of a barrier to trade than the line between the Republic and the Six Counties.

I'm inclined to think that people who haven't lived in SE England have an exaggerated idea of how remote France and "the Continent" is. From first-hand experience, though, I can tell you that that stretch of water is of almost no consequence to the people who live in Kent. I was one of them for ten years, and we - as a family - used to do our shopping in Boulogne once a month because it was easier to get there than over and back across the Dartford Bridge. Similarly, I'll be working in the North of France in April and will definitely whizz across the Channel to do some shopping in the English supermarkets during one of my weekends there.

Until now, that kind of private travel has been no different to commercial/trade, and there are many thousands of people who shuttled over and back across the water every week (mostly man-and-van courrier/delivery services). Without a frictionless FTA, a delay of several hours while those vans (and boots) are opened, checked and occasionally sidelined for further processsing will decimate that traffic and the businesses that depend on it. Just like in Ireland. There are precious few man-and-van courriers making the Canada-EU round trip five times a week.

Spanish Eyes

UK is off their trolley thinking that a Trade Deal with anyone other than EU will provide dividends.

EU needs to play hard ball here. IMO.

But I doubt Johnson cares. Either way he beleives he is quids in.

Is he though? I'm not sure.

RobMc59

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

UK is off their trolley thinking that a Trade Deal with anyone other than EU will provide dividends.

EU needs to play hard ball here. IMO.

But I doubt Johnson cares. Either way he beleives he is quids in.

Is he though? I'm not sure.

Who knows what he has agreed with trump?He`s hardly likely to reveal anything now until he goes through the motions of `trying` to negotiate a deal with the EU-a cynical person might say if he has some kind of agreement with the US(remember,although johnson has renounced his US citizenship he does appear close to trump,a fellow New Yorker) he may say the EU is being unreasonable,he comes out smelling of roses being the british `hero`with a pat on the head from trump.

cryptocurrency

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

No deal will be decided by 1 July anyway. That is the cut off date for uk to apply for yet another extension. If they don't it looks like a No Deal for me anyway.

EU are cool and keeping it cool. They cannot and will not give UK anything better than current membership has.

It could be ramping up again though. Interesting times ahead. EU will keep a cool head hopefully. They have plenty of very intelligent people in their court now.

Dominic Cummings is a sinister individual to me. But I see him as the mudguard to BJ who is as lazy as FK and will blame it all on DC anyway.

The EU have to not offer better terms then none membership, well, better terms in europhiles eyes, or the project is toast.

It’s toast anyway as the U.K. will prosper and all will see. The EU is in the death throes now with their desperate rhetoric to hold on.

cryptocurrency

Leroy42 wrote: »

No deal is bust.

No deal means that essentially Brexit, as it was offered, is a complete failure. No easiest trade deal, no they need us more.

The the whole exercise is to prove that life outside the regressive group is better. That’s what it is all about.

cryptocurrency

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Perhaps you need to read the withdrawal agreement.

https://twitter.com/StefaanDeRynck/status/1228994527156940801

I don’t think anyone in Britain cares about NI

cryptocurrency

Just listening to the break down on the speech last night and the Tory vision. No deal looks odds on now and it looks like something the U.K. won’t waver from.

The explanation is vey exciting. The EU are some stupid eejits.

Padre_Pio

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Just listening to the break down on the speech last night and the Tory vision. No deal looks odds on now and it looks like something the U.K. won’t waver from.

The explanation is vey exciting. The EU are some stupid eejits.

Many people are secretly delighted there's a no deal. Every projection shows the UK will suffer.

Care to post any evidence to the contrary? No? Didn't think so.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I don’t think anyone in Britain cares about NI

Says a lot about the people in your country when they don't care about 1/4 of it.

RobMc59

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I don’t think anyone in Britain cares about NI

That's not true.

cryptocurrency

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Many people are secretly delighted there's a no deal. Every projection shows the UK will suffer.

Care to post any evidence to the contrary? No? Didn't think so.



Says a lot about the people in your country when they don't care about 1/4 of it.

NI is about 2 million.

As for evidence on life being better outside the EU...it’s Economics 101.

Leroy42

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Just listening to the break down on the speech last night and the Tory vision. No deal looks odds on now and it looks like something the U.K. won’t waver from.

The explanation is vey exciting. The EU are some stupid eejits.

The explanation based on what? Did they provide any evidence at all for this explanation? How are they going to replace lost trade? How will they compensate companies for the extra red tape costs? How will they cover the losses of companies like auto makers for additional costs due to loss of JIT?

Who is going to pay for all the extra costs associated with the increased customs? Where will the money for the agri payments come from?

Was all that in the explanation?

Or was this vision, that everything will be grand just believe?

An how are the EU eejits? What should they do to stop being eejits?

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

That's not true.

Let's be honest, while it is not technically true it is correct in a political sense. Not nearly enough people care about NI for it to be an issue once the WA was signed. The UK is effectively being carved up and Brexiters are happy with that if they think Brexit gets done as a result.

Padre_Pio

cryptocurrency wrote: »

NI is about 2 million.

As for evidence on life being better outside the EU...it’s Economics 101.

What does that even mean?

Where is life better outside the EU?
By what metric?

Kermit.de.frog

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Let's be honest, while it is not technically true it is correct in a political sense. Not nearly enough people care about NI for it to be an issue once the WA was signed. The UK is effectively being carved up and Brexiters are happy with that if they think Brexit gets done as a result.

They have a serious identity crisis over there.

Padre_Pio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They have a serious identity crisis over there.

Yep. Today it's NI, tomorrow it's Scotland.

ancapailldorcha

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They have a serious identity crisis over there.

It's like a bag of cats to be honest. You have two sets of ideologues of varying degrees of zeal screaming at each other about the future of NI despite the fact that the only thing keeping it in the UK is the perceived prestige hit of the Conservative and Unionist party presiding over its loss.

Then you have the Scottish Nationalists constantly agitating for separation and not unfairly given the special deal that NI has got. If they're denied what they want then the Tories risk handing them ammunition and nobody knows what the future has in store.

Then there's England. Both main parties accurately surmise the divisions plaguing England. They're present of course in NI, Scotland and Wales as well but to a lesser degree with the former two having their separatist movements to provide a unifying aegis for these factions.

The Conservatives are currently governing based on mandates from the sort of communities which voted for Brexit because they think it might improve their fortunes as well as those which long for the past. They now have to deliver something that can satisfy both camps. I think Johnson can pulls this off if he can keep the press on side which is likely.

Then there's Labour. The strain of trying to satisfy working class leave voters concerned about immigration and sovereignty while being run by elitist, diversity loving Socialists has finally exposed how weak they are to say nothing of their dismal failure to placate even one of these demographics.

And then there's the generational divide whereby anyone young and career minded ships themselves off to big cities where they can't afford housing. Meanwhile, the NHS struggles to cater to an ageing population which voted to destabilise it via Brexit along with adding the loss of EU rights of free movement for those who already struggle to pay to live in said big cities.

I could go on. The educated versus the uneducated, the wealthy versus the working classes, the US culture war BS....

At least cats exist.