2020 Irish EV sales

ELM327

Kramer wrote: »

Model S sales being hit by Taycan though - 24 Taycans sold :eek:.

Model S sales more than likely hit by model 3 sales tbh


Porsche published an analysis suggesting that the taycan was generally a customer's first EV and anecdotally they were not customers who would have bought a Tesla.


The taycan is 2X the price of a model S so they are not the same population.

ELM327

Kramer wrote: »

With such low volumes, dealers pre registering demos could be a large percentage of sales.
I think when I looked previously, there were 40 odd registrations of the new Leaf 62 in a certain month, while there were almost the same number of Nissan dealers.

Either way, it looks like Eamon is implementing his green agenda & this is clear to see in the uptick in EV sales & the rapid improvement in the charging infrastructure.

Glad I voted green now :P.

.

Still choking in those diesel fumes from 08-10 cars though.

Kramer

ELM327 wrote: »

Still choking in those diesel fumes from 08-10 cars though.

I was coal rolling decades ago, until Eamon showed me the error of my ways. Happy to be included in these recent beepbeep EV stats now though, although there's still a fondness for an old school Cummins diesel :cool:.

Both Model S & X are down on last year, by approximately the same amount of Taycan sales. I doubt that's a coincidence or a prospective, top spec Model S purchaser, would accept the inferior Model 3 tbh.

ELM327

Kramer wrote: »

I was coal rolling decades ago, until Eamon showed me the error of my ways. Happy to be included in these recent beepbeep EV stats now though, although there's still a fondness for an old school Cummins diesel :cool:.

Both Model S & X are down on last year, by approximately the same amount of Taycan sales. I doubt that's a coincidence or a prospective, top spec Model S purchaser, would accept the inferior Model 3 tbh.

6BT Ram for the win
(I don't give a crap about the ecomentalist stuff btw.)


From anecdotal evidence there's a lot more crossover between 3 and S buyers than there would be between S and Taycan. I see the numbers line up but correlation is not always causation.

kanuseeme

ELM327 wrote: »

Still choking in those diesel fumes from 08-10 cars though.

You shouldn't hold your breath, 500 diesel electrics registered this year, looks like the good old diesel will be around for a while.

sk8board

ELM327 wrote: »

6BT Ram for the win
(I don't give a crap about the ecomentalist stuff btw.)


From anecdotal evidence there's a lot more crossover between 3 and S buyers than there would be between S and Taycan. I see the numbers line up but correlation is not always causation.

I would agree - Tesla buyers tend to only have eyes for one brand.
I can’t see anyone buying a €150k taycan 4S or €180k turbo S, a brand new model with the futuristic looks and all the attention, is going to instead pay €80-110k for a model S, with its older design, aging interior, and (desperately) in need of a refresh or replacement.
No replacement has been mooted (and would take years to arrive), so you can assume Tesla are just running it out. It’s only a few % of sales now anyway.

Tesla are now effectively a one-model company across most countries outside the US, with no sign of the Y in the short term, until new factories are up and running.

Markcheese

Have tesla swapped their new vehicle attention to the cyber truck ? Which in terms of the us market is the big ( and still growing ) fish ?
And I honestly think that its a stupidly bonkers vehicle ,and not on a good way ...

the_amazing_raisin

Markcheese wrote: »

Have tesla swapped their new vehicle attention to the cyber truck ? Which in terms of the us market is the big ( and still growing ) fish ?
And I honestly think that its a stupidly bonkers vehicle ,and not on a good way ...

Judging from the hype around battery day, they seem to be focused more on developing their own battery technology than developing newer cars at the moment.

Not necessarily a bad thing, if Tesla turned their mind to building platforms then they'd make a ton of money selling it to other automakers

sk8board

cruisey1987 wrote: »

Judging from the hype around battery day, they seem to be focused more on developing their own battery technology than developing newer cars at the moment.

Not necessarily a bad thing, if Tesla turned their mind to building platforms then they'd make a ton of money selling it to other automakers

Judging by the silence, It feels like the roadster, semi truck and cyber truck are still a LONG way off still, although I think I saw camo pics of the roadster doing mule testing.
Even battery day was a complete nonsense - ‘we’ll have a kick ass battery in about 3 years’.

They’ve done a bait n switch by instead delivering an update to the 8 year old model S - a €140k+ plaid edition. Guess how many of those they’ll sell in Europe, when you can have a Taycan 4S?

the_amazing_raisin

sk8board wrote: »

Judging by the silence, It feels like the roadster, semi truck and cyber truck are still a LONG way off still, although I think I saw camo pics of the roadster doing mule testing.
Even battery day was a complete nonsense - ‘we’ll have a kick ass battery in about 3 years’.

They’ve done a bait n switch by instead delivering an update to the 8 year old model S - a €140k+ plaid edition. Guess how many of those they’ll sell in Europe, when you can have a Taycan 4S?

I think there were a few gems, although realistically how they'll compare to the competitors in a few years is up for debate. It's interesting how Tesla are insisting on sticking with cylindrical cells when everyone else is moving to pouch or prismatic cells.


In terms of cars, Tesla definitely seem focused on the high end market for the moment. They seems to be pushing ahead with the Roadster and Cybertruck, which can likely be sold at a very high profit margin


I suspect the Plaid Model S will sell a few in Europe, there's a lot of folks who will never buy anything other than Tesla. It really seems designed for the US market though where driving range is a lot more in focus.


I found the Model 2 'announcement' quite amusing personally. It seemed to amount to someone pointing out to Tesla that the other automakers are starting to sell a lot of mid-range EVs for cheaper and the Model 3 and Tesla responding "uh...yeah we're gonna make a Model 2 which will be cheaper...." :pac:

innrain

From the same source the manufacturers table
Rank Make 2020 Units 2019 Units % Change 2020 % Share 2019 % Share
1 TESLA 724 113 540.71 18.72 3.51
2 HYUNDAI 690 1180 -41.53 17.84 36.65
3 NISSAN 615 1071 -42.58 15.9 33.26
4 KIA 612 134 356.72 15.83 4.16
5 VOLKSWAGEN 502 240 109.17 12.98 7.45
6 RENAULT 222 263 -15.59 5.74 8.17
7 MINI 112 0 - 2.9 0
8 AUDI 105 42 150 2.72 1.3
9 PEUGEOT 90 0 - 2.33 0
10 BMW 74 134 -44.78 1.91 4.16
11 OPEL 71 0 - 1.84 0
12 PORSCHE 24 0 - 0.62 0
13 JAGUAR 12 39 -69.23 0.31 1.21
14 MERCEDES-BENZ 11 4 175 0.28 0.12
15 HONDA 3 0 - 0.08 0


Hyundai lost the first position to Tesla which accounts for nearly one fifth of the new EVs registered in 2020. Nissan kept it position on the podium but barely, while VW comes running. I don't think it is going to get it this year but next year it will probably be in the first place.
As a direct comparison the Model3 vs 3Series in October the ratio is 3/2; 3series sales decreased by 59% compared with October 2019. From the 25 units sold by BMW, 13 are diesels and 9 PHEVs, with the remaining 3 petrol.
Close to 1/3 of the cars sold by VW are electric but October is not really a reference month to draw a strong argument.
Toyota sold 4 diesels in October, 96 from the beginning of the year (0.96% of the total units sold). 70 of these are at CO2 band F 191 - 225/km. In the same 10 months sold 0 PHEVs down from 24 in 2019

the_amazing_raisin

innrain wrote: »

Toyota sold 4 diesels in October, 96 from the beginning of the year (0.96% of the total units sold). 70 of these are at CO2 band F 191 - 225/km. In the same 10 months sold 0 PHEVs down from 24 in 2019

Not terribly surprised Toyota's PHEV sales are down, they seemed very overpriced to begin with

ted1

sk8board wrote: »

Judging by the silence, It feels like the roadster, semi truck and cyber truck are still a LONG way off still, although I think I saw camo pics of the roadster doing mule testing.

They are building the factories for these. I wouldn’t say a long way off

fricatus

The new car sales stats are very interesting, but another thing I'd be very interested to know is the overall composition of the Irish "car park", i.e. all the vehicles currently registered, of whatever age.

I tried to find this on the CSO website some time ago, but without success. Does anyone happen to know a source?

sk8board

fricatus wrote: »

The new car sales stats are very interesting, but another thing I'd be very interested to know is the overall composition of the Irish "car park", i.e. all the vehicles currently registered, of whatever age.

I tried to find this on the CSO website some time ago, but without success. Does anyone happen to know a source?

That data was definitely reported in the last few months related to the slow rollout of EVs, but I can’t fully remember - there were 2.4m registered vehicles in the national fleet with an average age of something like 8 years.
In other words, if EVs account for 4% of new car sales currently, that means just about 0.15% of the national fleet was moved to electric - i.e even if EVs were 50% of sales, it would still take about 10-15 years for just half the national fleet to be electric.

ELM327

sk8board wrote: »

I would agree - Tesla buyers tend to only have eyes for one brand.
I can’t see anyone buying a €150k taycan 4S or €180k turbo S, a brand new model with the futuristic looks and all the attention, is going to instead pay €80-110k for a model S, with its older design, aging interior, and (desperately) in need of a refresh or replacement.
No replacement has been mooted (and would take years to arrive), so you can assume Tesla are just running it out. It’s only a few % of sales now anyway.

Tesla are now effectively a one-model company across most countries outside the US, with no sign of the Y in the short term, until new factories are up and running.

Half the range, no Suc, less performance, less practical and double the price.
I call them the deranged. You were so close to getting the right car but you passed the Tesla on the way to porsche instead.
You can have this million dollars or you can swap it for the mystery box!

kanuseeme wrote: »

You shouldn't hold your breath, 500 diesel electrics registered this year, looks like the good old diesel will be around for a while.

That's great. I've been ogling 7.3 IDI ford f250 pickups online to replace the one I sold. I'm not an EVangelist and my next car if it's not the cybertruck will likely have 8+ cylinders and be diesel (notable exception for the 6 cylinder 6BT rams)

Kramer

ELM327 wrote: »

I've been ogling 7.3 IDI ford f250 pickups online to replace the one I sold.

Oh dear Gawd - the penguins & polar bears though!
Greta will have an aneurysm .

sk8board

ELM327 wrote: »

Half the range, no Suc, less performance, less practical and double the price.
I call them the deranged. You were so close to getting the right car but you passed the Tesla on the way to porsche instead.
You can have this million dollars or you can swap it for the mystery box!

It’s not just the car and the specs - the fanboys and the associations of owning a Tesla are a massive turnoff for many people, who value their own free will when spending that much on a car.

Free will. Hard to imagine, I know.

sk8board

The final numbers for EV’s in 2020 were 4.5% of sales, 4,000 sales v 3,500 (3%) in 2019, in a year that total car sales dropped 25%.
Those 4,000 represent 0.15% of our national fleet, reinforcing the problems facing moving to electric.

Gone be a loooong time before battery cars are the majority.

If ever.

mp3guy

Deleted User wrote: »

Gone be a loooong time before battery cars are the majority.

If ever.

I say 4 years.

ELM327

sk8board wrote: »

It’s not just the car and the specs - the fanboys and the associations of owning a Tesla are a massive turnoff for many people, who value their own free will when spending that much on a car.

Free will. Hard to imagine, I know.

I'm not a tesla koolaid consumer. I actually don't like Tesla as a company. The cars and the SuC network and the integration is great. But the customer service is awful, seriously downgraded since the heady early days of 2008-2016


But there's not much out there that is better.
Maybe in a few years, when theres a Taycan that's faster than an S and has comparable range, and Ionity is a viable SuC competitor then maybe. But at the moment theres really only one option.

sk8board wrote: »

The final numbers for EV’s in 2020 were 4.5% of sales, 4,000 sales v 3,500 (3%) in 2019, in a year that total car sales dropped 25%.
Those 4,000 represent 0.15% of our national fleet, reinforcing the problems facing moving to electric.

For a country considering outlawing fossil fuel car sales in 10 -15 years, those numbers show why that simply wont happen.
EVs are still very much a niche product.

ELM327

mp3guy wrote: »

I say 4 years.

Good luck with that one


As a percentage of the national fleet it is more likely to be 40 than 4 years before EVs are in the majority

mp3guy

ELM327 wrote: »

Good luck with that one


As a percentage of the national fleet it is more likely to be 40 than 4 years before EVs are in the majority

I mean new car sales.

ELM327

mp3guy wrote: »

I mean new car sales.

The prior discussion was about the national fleet number


If you're talking solely on numbers of new cars sold and exclude hybrids and phevs, then I still think you are off by an order of magnitude on the 4 year number.


I think we get past 2030 without having >50% of new car sales as full EVs

PaulRyan97

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lrBzvPGDAdxlDjV7ATNCCUASakuI8DGiHEqcBpINbBQ/edit?usp=drivesdk

My spreadsheet updated with the final 2020 figures.

sk8board

ELM327 wrote: »

The prior discussion was about the national fleet number


If you're talking solely on numbers of new cars sold and exclude hybrids and phevs, then I still think you are off by an order of magnitude on the 4 year number.


I think we get past 2030 without having >50% of new car sales as full EVs

Funny, I was thinking the same as I typed the earlier message - could we get to 50% of new car cars being EV in 10years time? but even then that’s just 2% of the national fleet - and by then there will be some 10 year old EVs nearing end-of-life

Zenith74

sk8board wrote: »

The final numbers for EV’s in 2020 were 4.5% of sales, 4,000 sales v 3,500 (3%) in 2019, in a year that total car sales dropped 25%.
Those 4,000 represent 0.15% of our national fleet, reinforcing the problems facing moving to electric.

Just one other way to look at those numbers (to factor in the drop in car sales): the EV market share of new sales is up 55% over 2019. Which is good news certainly, but as you say a long long way from where it needs to be!

the_amazing_raisin

PaulRyan97 wrote: »

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lrBzvPGDAdxlDjV7ATNCCUASakuI8DGiHEqcBpINbBQ/edit?usp=drivesdk

My spreadsheet updated with the final 2020 figures.

Looks like sales of pure electrics went up even when the rest of the market is down ~30%


Nice to see electrics on the rise but still lagging way behind other EU countries

mp3guy

ELM327 wrote: »

The prior discussion was about the national fleet number


If you're talking solely on numbers of new cars sold and exclude hybrids and phevs, then I still think you are off by an order of magnitude on the 4 year number.


I think we get past 2030 without having >50% of new car sales as full EVs

I'm being very optimistic

Old diesel

sk8board wrote: »

It’s not just the car and the specs - the fanboys and the associations of owning a Tesla are a massive turnoff for many people, who value their own free will when spending that much on a car.

Free will. Hard to imagine, I know.

It's possible to buy a Tesla and have nothing to do with Fanboys.

What associations - it's a CAR - I suspect most oddball reactions to buying a Tesla are re things that aren't Tesla specific.

Examples.....

Model S is a very expensive car so that attracts comments from begrudgers. Edit you can buy 2nd hand Model S at say 40 k but most people just think it's really expensive in general. Which it is to be fair

People being anti EV - Why didn't you buy a diesel

If you want a Tesla - buy one.

If not dont

EV sales won't improve until costs come down, range and recharge times improve, 30 mins to 1hr is just never going to be acceptable for the majority, neither is a sub standard Public charging network and charging queues.

Choice in EV models needs to improve a lot too.

liamog

ELM327 wrote: »

For a country considering outlawing fossil fuel car sales in 10 -15 years, those numbers show why that simply wont happen.
EVs are still very much a niche product.

The sales ban in 2030 is for new ICE vechicles, 2035 is a ban on non zero emission vehicles. The nature of S curves means we'll likely be well on the way to 100% of new sales being electrified by 2030. EU emissions targets means the the ban is likely to be academic anyway.

For 2019, Diesel and Petrol accounted for 87.21% of new sales, 2020 that number is down to 83.2%. We're going to see a lot of mild hybrids and PHEVs sold between now an 2025. They're all allowed between the '30 and '35 bans.

Deleted User wrote: »

EV sales won't improve until costs come down, range and recharge times improve, 30 mins to 1hr is just never going to be acceptable for the majority, neither is a sub standard Public charging network and charging queues.

Your hypothesis doesn't hold, pure EV sales are improving year on year, both as an overall percentage and as unit sales.

fricatus

So new BEV sales are now 4.5% of the market, which is growth of 55% over last year. I know we can't assume that this will continue in linear fashion, but a few more years of that sort of growth, even from the current low base, will mean that we'll achieve 100% BEV easily by 2030.

Purely for illustration:
2020 - 4.5%
2021 - 7%
2022 - 10.8%
2023 - 16.8%
2024 - 26%
2025 - 40%
2026 - 62.4%
2027 - 96.7%

Personally I would say we'll have no problem hitting 26% in 2024 as long as there are no more Covid-style black swan events!

ELM327

I think I may have found the most inward looking outboard of the internet here lads
It's simply not going to happen.

liamog

Between fleet targets and Euro 7 regulations, do you think any manufacturer will be selling non electrified (or other non zero emission fuelled) vehicles in 2030?

the_amazing_raisin

ELM327 wrote: »

I think I may have found the most inward looking outboard of the internet here lads
It's simply not going to happen.

Said nokia to apple

ELM327

Fleet targets can be met by "mild hybridizing" the vast majority of your fleet. The likes of Ford are doing this already.
We'll see a move to everything being 48v MHEV at least.

But to say that 100% of new car sales in 2030 will be EV (or other "zev") is, quite frankly, bordering on the ludicrous.
For that to happen, the likes of taxi drivers, sales reps, car rental companies, etc would have to buy EVs. Thats not going to happen.

There will be a higher proportion of pure BEVs than now, sure. But ALL cars? No.

Your question is quite vague. "do you think any manufacturer will be selling non electrified (or other non zero emission fuelled) vehicles in 2030? "

Using electrified, as opposed to electric, would indicate that you'd consider a MHEV as electrified? If so then yes that's conceivable. If it's just pure BEVs then I doubt even >50% of sales would be BEV in 2030

ELM327

cruisey1987 wrote: »

Said nokia to apple

Apple products (and android products) are superior compared to the aul 3210.
BEVs do not offer the same convenience that ICE cars do. So it's not even feature parity let alone superior.

liamog

It wasn't a vague question, the question re 2030 is targeted at the nature of our 2030 ban. We're not banning the sale of vehicles that use combustible fuels (in 2030), we're banning the sales of vehicles that are not zero emission capable.
I don't quiet think a mild hybrid can manage it, but maybe Toyota can create a hybrid that self charges itself enough to be capable of running in zero emission mode for long enough.

fricatus

fricatus wrote: »

So new BEV sales are now 4.5% of the market, which is growth of 55% over last year. I know we can't assume that this will continue in linear fashion, but a few more years of that sort of growth, even from the current low base, will mean that we'll achieve 100% BEV easily by 2030.

Purely for illustration:
2020 - 4.5%
2021 - 7%
2022 - 10.8%
2023 - 16.8%
2024 - 26%
2025 - 40%
2026 - 62.4%
2027 - 96.7%

Personally I would say we'll have no problem hitting 26% in 2024 as long as there are no more Covid-style black swan events!

And they'll still only account for 30% of cars

Old diesel

Old diesel wrote: »

Edit you can buy 2nd hand Model S at say 40 k but most people just think it's really expensive- buy one.

If not dont

One of the mods reckons he has had 20k in warranty work on his tesla in one year. Why would anyone buy one not nearly new?

JohnC.

Deleted User wrote: »

And they'll still only account for 30% of cars

It's about new car sales, not how many cars exist in total.

rodge123

Interesting read here:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/05/electric-cars-record-market-share-norway

Over 50% of all new cars sold last year were BEVs, crikey!

And even more amazing was that the Audi etron was the biggest selling car in country, a wealthy country I know but jaysus there must be money growing on trees over there!
Unless they have massive tax breaks that make them very affordable.

Ironically paid for with fossil fuel sales

JohnC.

JohnC. wrote: »

It's about new car sales, not how many cars exist in total.

GG! Don't know how to explain the post so you'd understand.

liamog

Deleted User wrote: »

GG! Don't know how to explain the post so you'd understand.

Poster A predicts BEV sales should hit 26% of new sales by 2024
Poster B claims that accounts for less than 30%?

Are you two having a major agreement when it comes to maths?

sk8board

Looking at those Norway numbers in terms of national fleet, BEV was 9.3% of the national fleet in Dec 2019. Allowing for 50% of sales in 2020 (similar size national fleet to Ireland’s @ 2.5m vehicles), then they are at around 11% of the national fleet today, and that’s the best performing country in the world by a country mile.
Progress here is going to be very very slow, considering how Norway incentivises EVs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway

jusmeig

Deleted User wrote: »

Ironically paid for with fossil fuel sales

The Norwegians are acutely aware of this...don't mention it to them
We cannot use Norwegian EV adoption as a boiler plate for anywhere else, this is a country that got to vote to decide what to spend surplus cash on at a national level. When the Audi e-tron is the most popular car in the country, that says it all. Cash rich!

I think the plan we have is ambitious, but our most popular cars are not Audi e-trons...however we have a love affair with SUV's big and small, and there are a lot of electric models inbound in good numbers. Id say the adoption of the ID4 will be critical, as its a brand that is well known and might hoover up people who would go for Tiguan, Tucson etc (loads of them about)

beauf

sk8board wrote: »

Funny, I was thinking the same as I typed the earlier message - could we get to 50% of new car cars being EV in 10years time? but even then that’s just 2% of the national fleet - and by then there will be some 10 year old EVs nearing end-of-life

Leaf is 10yrs old. I think the main cause of obsolescence is the cost of the battery. Not the rest of the car. In another10 yrs time will the battery be cheaper and will it not have degraded as much as current 10yr old leafs.

As tech improves older cars will be more useful for longer.

In 2020 a 10yr old ice car is still very decent. Go back to 1970-80 they definitely weren't as long lasting.