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A United Ireland - Ireland's Brexit?

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    #32
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,401 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    El Weirdo wrote: »
    Civil service pensions.

    For a kick off.

    public service, civil service and state pensions etc etc


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    #33
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    If you want a UI, then there is one golden contextual condition that will signficantly ease (even force) such an event, and that is Indie Scotland.

    I forsee Nicola Sturgeon (or any other leader of the SNP) as currently being the single greatest potential republican*.
    Even in an involuntary position (in relation to UI) on these Islands, *at this current moment in time

    Get your Braveheart DVD's out. [ Scotexit == UI ]
    Without an Indie Scot, it will be x10 more difficult to acheive.


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    #34
    Hamsterchops
    Registered Users Posts: 3,281 ✭✭✭Hamsterchops


    suicide_circus wrote: »
    Just something i was musing on.

    Would a border poll be Ireland's equivalent to Britain's Leave/Remain referendum?

    Obviously is an entirely different situation, what I'm getting at is the monumental nature of it, the divisiveness, the bitterness, the bad blood.

    Both are a leap into the dark, a roll of the dice economically and socially.

    Thoughts?

    Support in the North for a so called "United Ireland" is currently running at about 40% ....

    Need we say more?

    Ask the question again in about six years time, once Brexit has bedded in.


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    #35
    Jump_In_Jack
    Registered Users Posts: 3,806 ✭✭✭Jump_In_Jack


    Hamsterchops wrote: »
    Support in the North for a so called "United Ireland" is currently running at about 40% ....

    Need we say more?

    Ask the question again in about six years time, once Brexit has bedded in.

    Source for that statement?


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    #36
    NIMAN
    Registered Users Posts: 33,660 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    Its not a matter of IF but WHEN


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    #37
    facehugger99
    Registered Users Posts: 7,322 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    suicide_circus wrote: »
    are there stats on that?

    There is a Behavior and Attitudes survey from April '19 that shows only 37% of respondents say they are willing to pay more tax for a UI.

    The number who would actually be willing to put their hands in their pockets, is likely less than half of this, when push comes to shove.

    Not a hope of a referendum passing in the ROI for many, many decades regardless of NI's intentions.


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    #38
    Politelymad
    Registered Users Posts: 13 ✭Politelymad


    Hamsterchops wrote: »
    Support in the North for a so called "United Ireland" is currently running at about 40% ....

    Brexit's result was 51.9% for. Look at the social damage it's caused.
    Until you're taking of north of 67% then the answer to that is 'so what'.


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    #39
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,401 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    facehugger99 wrote: »
    There is a Behavior and Attitudes survey from April '19 that shows only 37% of respondents say they are willing to pay more tax for a UI.

    The number who would actually be willing to put their hands in their pockets, is likely less than half of this, when push comes to shove.

    Not a hope of a referendum passing in the ROI for many, many decades regardless of NI's intentions.

    Ask 100000 people are they willing to pay more tax for anything and you'll get a rather disappointing result..


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    #40
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,401 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Politelymad wrote: »
    Brexit's result was 51.9% for. Look at the social damage it's caused.
    Until you're taking of north of 67% then the answer to that is 'so what'.

    that's not actually the law though


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    #41
    facehugger99
    Registered Users Posts: 7,322 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    lawred2 wrote: »
    Ask 100000 people are they willing to pay more tax for anything and you'll get a rather disappointing result..

    Ask 100000 people are they willing to pay more tax in theory and you'll get a rather more positive result than asking them to actually cough up.


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    #42
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,401 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    facehugger99 wrote: »
    Ask 100000 people are they willing to pay more tax in theory and you'll get a rather more positive result than asking them to actually cough up.

    nobody volunteers to 'cough up' more tax (in reality or in theory)

    tax is legislated for by the government of the day

    such polls are stupid


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    #43
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    lawred2 wrote: »
    public service, civil service and state pensions etc etc

    The NI civil service pension is devolved, so I would imagine that would transfer.

    Why would state pensions be the obligation of the U.K. government? Surely that would need to be aligned with those in the south?


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    #44
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,401 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Aegir wrote: »
    The NI civil service pension is devolved, so I would imagine that would transfer.

    Why would state pensions be the obligation of the U.K. government? Surely that would need to be aligned with those in the south?

    everyone who has paid into the UK system will be entitled to their UK pension prorata..

    those already retired will get their full UK pension.

    there is no way the Irish state will pay the civil or public service pensions of another state... devolved or otherwise. Sure these could include military and security service pensions... No the obligation is the with the state the service was for. Not where you're resident.

    There might be some crossover but it won't mean that the UK ends up being quids in.


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    #45
    facehugger99
    Registered Users Posts: 7,322 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    lawred2 wrote: »
    such polls are stupid

    :rolleyes:
    Sure, when they don't give you the answer you're hoping for.

    You're quite wrong of course - a referendum on a UI will literally be a referendum on willingness to pay additional tax.


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    #46
    bappelbe
    Registered Users Posts: 283 ✭✭bappelbe


    lawred2 wrote: »

    UK government in 2018 worked out after all pluses and minuses that NI subvention was about £9bn..

    So about 4 children's hospitals.

    Or in other words a banking crisis every 4 years
    https://www-irishtimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/bank-bail-out-estimated-to-have-cost-state-41-7bn-says-comptroller-1.4035332?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&mode=amp&usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D#aoh=15804727140973&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fbank-bail-out-estimated-to-have-cost-state-41-7bn-says-comptroller-1.4035332


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    #47
    Hamsterchops
    Registered Users Posts: 3,281 ✭✭✭Hamsterchops


    Jump_In_Jack wrote: »
    Source for that statement?

    Our Taoiseach.

    ...and I presume he's well informed.


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    #48
    armaghlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,660 ✭✭✭armaghlad


    facehugger99 wrote: »
    :rolleyes:
    Sure, when they don't give you the answer you're hoping for.

    You're quite wrong of course - a referendum on a UI will literally be a referendum on willingness to pay additional tax.
    It might be a bit more complex than that.


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    #49
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,401 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    armaghlad wrote: »
    It might be a bit more complex than that.

    leave him at it


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    #50
    facehugger99
    Registered Users Posts: 7,322 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    armaghlad wrote: »
    It might be a bit more complex than that.

    Some things need to be simplified for the hard of thinking.


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    #51
    Politelymad
    Registered Users Posts: 13 ✭Politelymad


    Not much willingness to learn from the Brexit being shown.

    Here's the other lesson to be learned. Don't listen to anyone who's promising what someone else will do.


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