2020 US Presidential Election (aka: The Trump Coronation)

Podge_irl

HDMI wrote: »

Seriously, Trump winning wasn't mind-blowing?

No

It was surprising, but surprising things happen with pretty high frequency. There was nothing statistically abnormal about him winning.

Quin_Dub

Overheal wrote: »

WOOT: Rep. Steve King is OUT. He has been primaried, according to breaking reports.

The swamp truly has drained one of its filthiest clumps of racist shower trap muck. Good riddance.

Iowa has (finally) made a clear rebuke against racism.

Except they didn't really..

The guy that ran against him never mentioned the fact that King was a rampant racist.

His position was not "Vote for me , not the Racist" it was "Vote for me , because the other guy has been kicked off all the committees so he can't do anything for you anymore".

So what did for King wasn't his disgusting racism , it was simply the fact that because he'd lost his committee seats he was no longer influential.

If King hadn't lost those roles , he'd still be the rep for his district..

So , they're still OK with racists in Iowa , but only if they can still bring home the Pork.

Podge_irl

HDMI wrote: »

Sounds like politics and seems like you accept Biden will lose just because he won't be able to keep up. I feel bad for him the Democrats really should have got a stronger candidate.

I don't think he will lose, I think by any reasonable metric he will handily have the stronger debate performance.

Trump constantly calling him creepy Joe, shouting Keep America Great and repeating how amazing he has done is not a good debate performance but for his supporters it won't matter.

Boggles

Podge_irl wrote: »

I don't think he will lose, I think by any reasonable metric he will handily have the stronger debate performance.

Trump constantly calling him creepy Joe, shouting Keep America Great and repeating how amazing he has done is not a good debate performance but for his supporters it won't matter.

Yeah, but Trump has "God"



:pac:

Sheep_shear

Boggles wrote: »

They could run shít on a stick against Trump.

The Dotard is not getting reelected.

The latest Fox News poll had Biden +8.

Well I disagree with your claim but even if we take it as truth, why risk it? Why not pick someone... who's not Biden?

Oh well, I guess we'll see in a few months. I have the day after the elction booked off, so beers ahoy on the night

HDMI

Podge_irl wrote: »

No

It was surprising, but surprising things happen with pretty high frequency. There was nothing statistically abnormal about him winning.

On that one I guess you are in the minority, every news station over here had him losing, I don't think the Republican party even thought he had a chance. The shock when the reality set in was mind blowing. NY Times had Clinton an 85% chance to win Reuters had her at 90% The Independent had her at 99% chance.

Boggles

Sheep_shear wrote: »

Well I disagree with your claim but even if we take it as truth, why risk it? Why not pick someone... who's not Biden?

What difference does it make? you could pick Bill Cosby, the Dotard is done.

Sheep_shear wrote: »

Oh well, I guess we'll see in a few months. I have the day after the elction booked off, so beers ahoy on the night

Good for you, 10s of millions of Americans will be off too, but unfortunately that will be through unemployment.

Brian?

HDMI wrote: »

Historically? You mean 30 years ago, there is no way the Democrats felt that seat was at risk. California has been Democrat a long time now, honestly I imagined Republicans losing seats, may still happen though.

Eh, that seat was held by a republican from 1994 to 2018.

There are many counties, particularly Orange County, in California that are solid GOP. They also elect a lot of GOP governors.

HDMI

Boggles wrote: »

Good for you, 10s of millions of Americans will be off too, but unfortunately that will be through unemployment.

And you think Biden has a cure for coronavirus and unemployment?

The pandemic was not Trump's fault and if there is any relief from it I reckon a lot will get back to work.

Igotadose

HDMI wrote: »

And you think Biden has a cure for coronavirus and unemployment?

The pandemic was not Trump's fault and if there is any relief from it I reckon a lot will get back to work.

There's no cure for either. However, the treatment will be better in a Biden administration.

Sheep_shear

Boggles wrote: »

What difference does it make? you could pick Bill Cosby, the Dotard is done.

Which is what I disagree with... bloody hell like.

Good for you, 10s of millions of Americans will be off too, but unfortunately that will be through unemployment.

Totally confused...

"I had a nice sandwich for lunch!"
"But what about starving people in the third world?"

I'm out. I try to avoid internet Trump stuff as much as possible, should have known better.

HDMI

Brian? wrote: »

Eh, that seat was held by a republican from 1994 to 2018.

There are many counties, particularly Orange County, in California that are solid GOP. They also elect a lot of GOP governors.

I know but it's the first time since 1998 that Republicans have taken a seat from a Democrat, she may not have had it long but I think they expected to keep it.

Podge_irl

HDMI wrote: »

On that one I guess you are in the minority, every news station over here had him losing, I don't think the Republican party even thought he had a chance. The shock when the reality set in was mind blowing. NY Times had Clinton an 85% chance to win Reuters had her at 90% The Independent had her at 99% chance.

The majority of outlets were basing their predictions on the national vote, and in that sense they called it correctly as Clinton did indeed win that. The state-by-state predictions were far less clear-cut and gave Trump closer to a 30% chance. If you had to "pick" a winner you would still go with Clinton as Trump was a sizeable underdog but nothing happened outside the margin of error of the polls.

The last minute intervention by Comey was something that would have been difficult to track in the polls due to the timing and obviously could possibly have had an outsized impact also.

ELM327

Boggles wrote: »

They could run shít on a stick against Trump.

The Dotard is not getting reelected.

The latest Fox News poll had Biden +8.

Is that on % vote share (largely irrelevant) or projected electoral seats.
Biden may win the first (like hillary and gore) but will likely not get enough seats.

Quin_Dub

ELM327 wrote: »

Is that on % vote share (largely irrelevant) or projected electoral seats.
Biden may win the first (like hillary and gore) but will likely not get enough seats.

He's up in most of the swing States as well , which as you correctly point out is what matters. Winning California by an even larger margin doesn't matter.

Biden has leads greater than the margin of error in quite a number of swings States and he's also currently "in-play" in a number of traditionally solid Red States.

Still lots of time for things to change of course , but right now , Trump is behind any way you care to slice the numbers.

And it's getting worse in recent days - Latest IPSOS polls show a sharp dip in Trump approval ratings over the last few days , people are not happy with his handling of the current situation

Boggles

HDMI wrote: »

And you think Biden has a cure for coronavirus and unemployment?

Did I suggest that? Absolutely moot to the tone of the thread.

I would say though that Biden was part of an administration that pulled America out of a severe recession.

Boggles

Sheep_shear wrote: »

Totally confused...


I'm out.

Apt, have a good one.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

Did I suggest that? Absolutely moot to the tone of the thread.

I would say though that Biden was part of an administration that pulled America out of a severe recession.

Also likely wouldn't use a pandemic as an excuse to rant about all his enemies and how mean the press are.

Honestly, I think November is very much so against trump atm. He was an unknown quantity in terms of what he'd do in office back in 2016. Granted plenty saw him for what he was. Now he has a political career and it's been disastrous with no real work done outside of a supreme Court judge, some executive orders and destroying the US on the international stage.

ELM327

Quin_Dub wrote: »

He's up in most of the swing States as well , which as you correctly point out is what matters. Winning California by an even larger margin doesn't matter.

Biden has leads greater than the margin of error in quite a number of swings States and he's also currently "in-play" in a number of traditionally solid Red States.

Still lots of time for things to change of course , but right now , Trump is behind any way you care to slice the numbers.

And it's getting worse in recent days - Latest IPSOS polls show a sharp dip in Trump approval ratings over the last few days , people are not happy with his handling of the current situation

There's only one way to slice the numbers, and thats on projected electoral college votes based on % vote share in each state.


I think there's bound to be a reactionary bias at the moment for both parties core groups (blue going more blue as they don't like Trumps handling of the current pandemic and the floyd issue, red going more red as they see the democrat governors at fault).... I don't think either will hold till November.

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

Also likely wouldn't use a pandemic as an excuse to rant about all his enemies and how mean the press are.

Honestly, I think November is very much so against trump atm. He was an unknown quantity in terms of what he'd do in office back in 2016. Granted plenty saw him for what he was. Now he has a political career and it's been disastrous with no real work done outside of a supreme Court judge, some executive orders and destroying the US on the international stage.

There isn't on tangible reason offered by the Trump Cheerleaders as to how he will win the election, Ahhh 2016, Ahhh Biden has dementia.

What Trump had is gone. It's lots of things now, but ultimately it's boring.

He is completely and utterly finished, the Senators up for reelection were staying with him because he was good for poll numbers. Also because they are cretinous hypocrites. You'll start to see those creepy fúckers turn too.

The only thing up for debate at this moment in time IMO is can the Democrats flip the Senate.

Carfacemandog

ELM327 wrote: »

There's only one way to slice the numbers, and thats on projected electoral college votes based on % vote share in each state.


I think there's bound to be a reactionary bias at the moment for both parties core groups (blue going more blue as they don't like Trumps handling of the current pandemic and the floyd issue, red going more red as they see the democrat governors at fault).... I don't think either will hold till November.

The problem with that logic is that many of the hot spots have Republican governors, such as Tennessee, Texas, Missouri, Indianapolis, including some very important swing states - Florida, Georgia, Ohio and North Carolina (the latter of which might be surprising, but Trump only won there by 3%).

eagle eye

Boggles wrote:

He is done, and I would suspect clambering for reasons to drop out.

Are you blaming Trump for covid-19? The reason for the unemployment is covid-19 is it not?
Now criticising Trump's handling of the pandemic is one thing but blaming him for the job losses is wrong. Most countries worldwide have their highest unemployment levels ever.

notobtuse

dark crystal wrote: »

If this is what dementia looks like...I dunno what to tell you. Great, unifying speech from Biden here. Sounds like a president should.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2aWDG87nJo

By all means let's ignore all the many concerns and vote for Biden based on one well read speech?

lawrencesummers

It’s a pity the there couldn’t be a stronger Democratic candidate, someone that would have been a genuine challenger to Trump before the issues of Covid and BLM. Someone that could have won the election on his/her own merit, because I don’t think Biden had a chance before these issue came to the fore.

Every election is fought on issues, and it looks like Biden is going to be the beneficiary in the two big issues coming up to the election.

It’s just that nothing will convince me that biden will make a good president, just a less worse one than is currently there and that’s a pity.

Before you look at their political points of view, their attitude and personality, their beliefs and values I don’t think either Trump or Biden are actually physically capable Of doing the job (properly).

The physical toll a job like that should take on somebody, endless hours, meetings, flights, time zones, speeches, dinners, award ceremonies is something that only a younger and fit person would be capable of doing justice to.

Before anyone decides to throw the ageist card at me I think Michael D is well suited to his role, because it’s less demanding or vital and His can be carried out in full at his age and ability.

A US president is akin to the role of CEO of a massive company, and both Donald and Biden are past the retirement age for such a role.

Boggles

eagle eye wrote: »

Are you blaming Trump for covid-19? The reason for the unemployment is covid-19 is it not?

No, but to quote a orange dotard.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/398887965302091776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E398887965302091776&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffpost.com%2Fentry%2Ftrump-responsibility_n_596ee1a1e4b00db3d0f3f5ae

notobtuse

Sheep_shear wrote: »

Well I disagree with your claim but even if we take it as truth, why risk it? Why not pick someone... who's not Biden?

Oh well, I guess we'll see in a few months. I have the day after the elction booked off, so beers ahoy on the night

if they expand mail in voting you may need to take weeks or months off until a winner is declared.

eagle eye

Boggles wrote:

Apt, have a good one.

This type of post is so insulting. You quote a couple of words out of his post to make a childish comment.
Why not quote his full post?
Why do you need to comment when he says he is out?

eagle eye

Boggles wrote:

No, but to quote a orange dotard.

No to what?

Boggles

eagle eye wrote: »

This type of post is so insulting.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm. :rolleyes:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113622651&postcount=1667

eagle eye wrote: »

No to what?

No to the question you asked, obviously.

eagle eye

Boggles wrote:

No to the question you asked, obviously.

So you are saying he is not responsible for the unemployment level?