2020 US Presidential Election (aka: The Trump Coronation)

timsey tiger

duploelabs wrote: »

The world has gone mad when you side with Piers Morgan, but here we are

a-holes always fall out eventually.


(just in-case there is any confusion, the a-holes are the two on the video)

Quin_Dub

Overheal wrote: »

Trump takes a 15 point nosedive with evangelicals after his teargassing the clergy stunt

https://www.mediaite.com/news/days-after-bible-photo-op-new-poll-shows-trump-has-tanked-15-points-with-white-evangelicals-since-march/

kilns wrote: »

They'll be back, they have zero morals

Well , they either don't vote or they vote for Trump.

He actually had similar support levels at the same point last cycle with Evangelicals and ended up capturing ~80% of the vote from them.

But he's clearly worried, hence the Photo Ops this week - The now infamous one and a later one in front of a Papal statue in Washington.

ohnonotgmail

Overheal wrote: »

For all I know her parents are MAGA and posted the photo as a joke

speaking of which

https://twitter.com/brokenbottleboy/status/1268801828143194112

MeMen2_MoRi_

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Interesting elements of the ruling though here





So it may come down to county level clerks making a decision , so you might have some a city like Austin and surrounding counties like Williamson accepting requests for mail-in ballots but the more rural ones denying them.

There's still another counter-suit going through the courts as well , so it's not the final word on this.

I think it's a bit of a mess of a ruling they're in some way passing the buck, it's the supreme court of Texas some clarity for everyone would go a long way, yeah see how the rest of it plays out.

eagle eye

I think you'll see a lot of churches stay out of this one. One guy has rumours and more about rape of a child and sexual assault, other guy has multiple complaints concerning inappropriate touching of women, a sexual assault allegation and stuff about inappropriate touching or cupping of a minor.

The Churches would be best advised to not support either as it could come back to haunt them.

The Nal

JOBS JOBS JOBS

US unemployment rate unexpectedly falls to 13.3% in May

Carfacemandog

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

speaking of which

https://twitter.com/brokenbottleboy/status/1268801828143194112

"America First", a good old timey phrase with wholesome Nazi roots from the German American Bund Party, and later the pro fascist America First Committee. The slogan even got the attention of Dr. Seuss at the time.

ELM327

eagle eye wrote: »

I think you'll see a lot of churches stay out of this one. One guy has rumours and more about rape of a child and sexual assault, other guy has multiple complaints concerning inappropriate touching of women, a sexual assault allegation and stuff about inappropriate touching or cupping of a minor.

The Churches would be best advised to not support either as it could come back to haunt them.

Agree

The Nal wrote: »

JOBS JOBS JOBS

US unemployment rate unexpectedly falls to 13.3% in May

If there's a quick recovery in the economy that will play to Trumps reelection

Quin_Dub

eagle eye wrote: »

I think you'll see a lot of churches stay out of this one. One guy has rumours and more about rape of a child and sexual assault, other guy has multiple complaints concerning inappropriate touching of women, a sexual assault allegation and stuff about inappropriate touching or cupping of a minor.

The Churches would be best advised to not support either as it could come back to haunt them.

If the last 3 or 4 years has told us anything it's that what might have previously been considered as "immoral" or "unacceptable to polite/religious society" behaviour simply no longer matters.

It's Your Guy vs. My Guy and an extremely limited subset of people are open to persuasion.

The Nal

ELM327 wrote: »

Agree
If there's a quick recovery in the economy that will play to Trumps reelection

Absolutely. Massively so. And it appears to be going that way.

Overheal

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

speaking of which

https://twitter.com/brokenbottleboy/status/1268801828143194112

Gross I JUST ate

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

Agree





If there's a quick recovery in the economy that will play to Trumps reelection

It's unlikely to see a quick recovery, they were due a recession as is so covid sped it up..

Quin_Dub

The Nal wrote: »

JOBS JOBS JOBS

US unemployment rate unexpectedly falls to 13.3% in May

ELM327 wrote: »

If there's a quick recovery in the economy that will play to Trumps reelection

That's certainly the case,as I've said before potentially even a relatively small recovery could on the surface give Trump some "Historic" "Never seen before" job creation numbers.

If unemployment recovers to even 10% or so , the monthly total jobs figures would likely be at or above all time single month records..10% is still absolutely awful and as bad or slightly worse than 2008/2009 but taking 5% points off the unemployment rate is still something like 8M jobs.

It's definitely a positive good news story for him - However if it stalls at that kind of level , the electoral benefit to Trump reduces dramatically.

ELM327

Deleted User wrote: »

It's unlikely to see a quick recovery, they were due a recession as is so covid sped it up..

Stock performance recently in most not TTE sectors (travel, tickets ,events) would disagree

Quin_Dub wrote: »

That's certainly the case,as I've said before potentially even a relatively small recovery could on the surface give Trump some "Historic" "Never seen before" job creation numbers.

If unemployment recovers to even 10% or so , the monthly total jobs figures would likely be at or above all time single month records..10% is still absolutely awful and as bad or slightly worse than 2008/2009 but taking 5% points off the unemployment rate is still something like 8M jobs.

It's definitely a positive good news story for him - However if it stalls at that kind of level , the electoral benefit to Trump reduces dramatically.

Absolutely. For Trump to use this positively it needs to return to pre covid levels before the election in November. Otherwise it's his main drawing point gone.


A lot of people hated Trump but voted for him to sort out the economy

kilns

ELM327 wrote: »

Stock performance recently in most not TTE sectors (travel, tickets ,events) would disagree



Absolutely. For Trump to use this positively it needs to return to pre covid levels before the election in November. Otherwise it's his main drawing point gone.


A lot of people hated Trump but voted for him to sort out the economy

Stock performance does not reflect the strength of any ecomony period

People didnt vote for Trump to sort the ecomony out, if they did they were very very dumb and uneducated as if you could read a simple graph you could see the economy was consistently improving month on month for years before even the election cycle of 2016 started

Overheal

Quin_Dub wrote: »

That's certainly the case,as I've said before potentially even a relatively small recovery could on the surface give Trump some "Historic" "Never seen before" job creation numbers.

If unemployment recovers to even 10% or so , the monthly total jobs figures would likely be at or above all time single month records..10% is still absolutely awful and as bad or slightly worse than 2008/2009 but taking 5% points off the unemployment rate is still something like 8M jobs.

It's definitely a positive good news story for him - However if it stalls at that kind of level , the electoral benefit to Trump reduces dramatically.

Trump already rushed out of bed this morning to give a press conference about the numbers. He was desperate for a shred of data he could boast about to jingle in front of his base

Quin_Dub

ELM327 wrote: »

Stock performance recently in most not TTE sectors (travel, tickets ,events) would disagree



Absolutely. For Trump to use this positively it needs to return to pre covid levels before the election in November. Otherwise it's his main drawing point gone.


A lot of people hated Trump but voted for him to sort out the economy

Definitely - The economy is , I think the only Polling question where Trump currently has a lead over Biden.

The key question about the current Unemployment is, of the jobs lost how many are "in Hibernation" vs. "Gone"

The ones in hibernation will come back fairly quickly over the next few months as the various lockdowns are lifted.

So , like I say , we'll likely see some large jumps in "new" jobs over the next 2-3 months , but it's what happens after that is the key question/challenge

kilns

The Nal wrote: »

JOBS JOBS JOBS

US unemployment rate unexpectedly falls to 13.3% in May

The devil is in the detail, part time unemployment which was the big number dropped dramatically but the actual figure for permament unemployed has risen.

But they are entitled to spin it for their benefit as the headlines look good

Professor Moriarty

When you borrow 3 trillion dollars, then you will create jobs. *cough* deficit *cough.

kilns

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

When you borrow 3 trillion dollars, then you will create jobs. *cough* deficit *cough.

Obama borrowed his way out of the recession which was fair enough but did increase the national debt.

Trump has no excuse for his borrowing except its all he knows from his own business life

Igotadose

kilns wrote: »

Obama borrowed his way out of the recession which was fair enough but did increase the national debt.

Trump has no excuse for his borrowing except its all he knows from his own business life

Just one nit: *before* the Covid-19 rescue packages were passed, Trump's Tax cut caused the deficit to soar by about $1.5tn. Obama did indeed grow the deficit - though chunks of that, were paid back (bailouts of auto companies come to mind.)

What the Trump Tax cut did was completely annihilate any claim whatsoever that the GOP cares about a deficit. They don't. None in politics in the US does. About the only thing they pay attention to is whether they can pay the interest on the debt.

kilns

Igotadose wrote: »

Just one nit: *before* the Covid-19 rescue packages were passed, Trump's Tax cut caused the deficit to soar by about $1.5tn. Obama did indeed grow the deficit - though chunks of that, were paid back (bailouts of auto companies come to mind.)

What the Trump Tax cut did was completely annihilate any claim whatsoever that the GOP cares about a deficit. They don't. None in politics in the US does. About the only thing they pay attention to is whether they can pay the interest on the debt.

It is the usual merry go round in US politics, the Republicans when in office run up huge debts but when out of office they are the very concerned fiscal watchdogs and democrats have to clean up their mess and look like the mean ones raising taxes to pay for the mess and then get voted out because of it and the whole cycle begins again

Quin_Dub

kilns wrote: »

It is the usual merry go round in US politics, the Republicans when in office run up huge debts but when out of office they are the very concerned fiscal watchdogs and democrats have to clean up their mess and look like the mean ones raising taxes to pay for the mess and then get voted out because of it and the whole cycle begins again

In a lot of ways , not dissimilar to our own historical scenario with FF and FG.

FF did the Boomy Boom and FG picked up the pieces - it's been a bit upended over the last decade though.

kilns

In his live press conference going on right now Trump just said This is a great day for George Floyd.

The guy is the absolute pits

kilns

Quin_Dub wrote: »

In a lot of ways , not dissimilar to our own historical scenario with FF and FG.

FF did the Boomy Boom and FG picked up the pieces - it's been a bit upended over the last decade though.

correct happens the world over

Quin_Dub

kilns wrote: »

In his live press conference going on right now Trump just said This is a great day for George Floyd.

The guy is the absolute pits

At a Press conference about the improving Job numbers - He comes out with this..

Hopefully George is looking down and saying this is a great thing that’s happening for our country. (It’s) a great day for him. It’s a great day for everybody.

Utterly repugnant..

dark crystal

kilns wrote: »

In his live press conference going on right now Trump just said This is a great day for George Floyd.

The guy is the absolute pits

Sociapathic.

hetuzozaho

Actually looks like it's taken out of context IMO

https://twitter.com/vplus/status/1268938124656291843

Quin_Dub

hetuzozaho wrote: »

Actually looks like it's taken out of context IMO

https://twitter.com/vplus/status/1268938124656291843

What exactly is happening today that makes it a great day for George Floyd??

It just looks like yet another example of where Trump says something incredibly insensitive and self-centered and others have to come out and say "Actually what he meant was...."

Rjd2

hetuzozaho wrote: »

Actually looks like it's taken out of context IMO

https://twitter.com/vplus/status/1268938124656291843

It was taken out of context for sure, but that sadly is how social media operates. The people who spread it wanted the retweets and they know well that majority of the base live in echo chambers so won't go find the full clip.

Trump is abysmal, but doesn't mean the media should sink low just to get some rage retweets.