2020 US Presidential Election (aka: The Trump Coronation)

ohnonotgmail

Billy Mays wrote: »

Guess who?

Priti patel?

Igotadose

Fivethirtyeight discusses Biden's lead. Basically, he leads by more earlier than Nixon did in 1972 and Reagan did in 1984, both of whom went on to win easily and in Reagan's case by a landslide. And, it's 4 months before the election and Biden can still lose. So, polls can be fun, and not mean anything in either direction.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-has-a-historically-large-lead-over-trump-but-it-could-disappear/

2u2me

Igotadose wrote: »

Fivethirtyeight discusses Biden's lead. Basically, he leads by more earlier than Nixon did in 1972 and Reagan did in 1984, both of whom went on to win easily and in Reagan's case by a landslide. And, it's 4 months before the election and Biden can still lose. So, polls can be fun, and not mean anything in either direction.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-has-a-historically-large-lead-over-trump-but-it-could-disappear/

Aren't a lot of these polls done through a cold-call?

I'd say a lot of people wouldn't be happy to admit that they intend to vote for Trump, especially to a stranger in this current climate.

duploelabs

2u2me wrote: »

Aren't a lot of these polls done through a cold-call?

I'd say a lot of people wouldn't be happy to admit that they intend to vote for Trump, especially to a stranger in this current climate.

So are you saying that's why Trump is failing and on a downward trajectory on every single poll?

ELM327

How were the polls 4 months out in 2016 again?

duploelabs

ELM327 wrote: »

How were the polls 4 months out in 2016 again?

Disfavouring a candidate that the electorate didn't know what they'd be like in government, this is four years later

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

How were the polls 4 months out in 2016 again?

He's got a bigger lead. The big thing is trump is a politician now and he's failing miserably. The Coronavirus deaths are going to end up being viewed as his legacy at current rate.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-has-a-historically-large-lead-over-trump-but-it-could-disappear/

Igotadose

2u2me wrote: »

Aren't a lot of these polls done through a cold-call?

Fivethirtyeight goes into great detail about how they choose and rank polls. It's pretty sophisticated, and worth reading. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

ChikiChiki

Trump has made some disaster of the Covid situation. Trumps ignorance of medical advice and listening to his buddies instead will have many states back in lockdown soon.

2u2me

Igotadose wrote: »

Fivethirtyeight goes into great detail about how they choose and rank polls. It's pretty sophisticated, and worth reading. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

So I was right, the best polls are still live phone calls.

Although it also says

So far, it hasn’t been a great year for pollsters. The 2020 presidential primary polls had a weighted average error — i.e., the absolute difference between a poll’s margin (between the top two candidates) and the actual vote share margin — of 10.2 percentage points. That’s roughly tied with the 2016 presidential primaries for the biggest error in primary polling this century.

Perhaps this could be explained by the stimatization attached to voting for Trump and people not wanting to admit that to a stranger.

It also shows statistical bias twice so far this year in the direction of the democrats, once in the governor elections and more profoundly in the house elections.
This echos the bias in favour of the democrats seen in 2016.

weisses

ELM327 wrote: »

How were the polls 4 months out in 2016 again?

5 points ?

Forty-six percent of registered voters back Clinton, versus 41 percent who support Trump — slightly up from Clinton's three-point lead in May, 46 percent to 43 percent.]

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/nbc-wsj-poll-clinton-leads-trump-5-points-n598716?cid=sm_tw&hootPostID=f1bc2ae86e0f1f07a0afb55a7cdbdf67

2u2me

Igotadose wrote: »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

These findings: Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling.

Hilarious, over the long term!

Igotadose

2u2me wrote: »

Hilarious, over the long term!

Eh? Less than 1% in one direction for 30+ years seems pretty statistically insignificant. What do you think it means?

2u2me

Igotadose wrote: »

Eh? Less than 1% in one direction for 30+ years seems pretty statistically insignificant. What do you think it means?

There is growing trend you could plot on a graph since 2014

Brian?

ELM327 wrote: »

How were the polls 4 months out in 2016 again?

Within the margin for error. A toss up.


This has been said a thousand times by now. The polls were statistically a toss up. How people interpreted was wrong.

ohnonotgmail

The latest Lincoln Project ad is bound to really cheer trump up.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1276112782187003904

Cody montana

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

The latest Lincoln Project ad is bound to really cheer trump up.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1276112782187003904

Watched it a few times since yesterday.
Very emotional video.
Real presidents with real compassion and dignity.

How low America has fallen with Trump.

Quin_Dub

2u2me wrote: »

There is growing trend you could plot on a graph since 2014

Where??

I'm not seeing what you are seeing?

Quin_Dub

ELM327 wrote: »

How were the polls 4 months out in 2016 again?

Here's an article that goes into details around what is different now vs. 2016

So although it’s still early (and the race can still change), we thought it would be good to set a marker for what the state of the race is at this point. So here are a few takeaways from our polling averages:

First, Biden’s lead has clearly widened in the past month. He now leads by more than 9 points, but on May 25, Biden led by an average of only 5.8 points (48.9 percent to 43.1 percent). On that day, though, police officers killed George Floyd in Minneapolis, touching off weeks of protests nationwide. Americans gave Trump poor marks for his heavy-handed response, such as his administration’s use of the military to clear protesters from in front of the White House so he could pose for a photo. In addition, voter approval of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic continues to sink, and the president has faced several other controversies in the past week or so. So while we can’t say for sure how much these events might be driving Biden’s increasing advantage in the polls, it seems probable that recent events have hurt Trump’s reelection chances.

But some people have dismissed Biden’s lead by pointing out that Hillary Clinton also led in most polls of the 2016 election (Clinton, obviously, ended up losing to Trump). While this is true, Clinton’s lead was much smaller. Applying our current polling-average methodology to 2016 polls, Clinton led national polls by an average of about 4.0 points four months before the 2016 election, and 3.8 points on Election Day itself. So while a normal-sized polling error was enough to throw the 2016 election to Trump, it would take a much bigger — and much unlikelier — polling error for Trump to be ahead right now.

It's still a good way out and ~125 or so days out there's plenty of things that could change.

But right here right now , the Biden lead is stronger and far more wide spread than the Clinton scenario. There are also far less "undecided" voters this time out , which makes it harder but not necessarily impossible for Trump to shift them over to him.

Foxtrol

HDMI wrote: »

Another Joe blunder, I just can't see how he survives the debates.

Link not embedding correctly.

I don't see why Trump supporters keep pushing this narrative. There is a never ending list of Trump making similar mistakes.

Here's Trump last weekend asking his voters to go back in time to vote. Though it probably is a time where he and his supporters opinions would fit in better.

https://twitter.com/malarkeyfree/status/1274510203329949696?s=20

ohnonotgmail

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Here's an article that goes into details around what is different now vs. 2016



It's still a good way out and ~125 or so days out there's plenty of things that could change.

But right here right now , the Biden lead is stronger and far more wide spread than the Clinton scenario. There are also far less "undecided" voters this time out , which makes it harder but not necessarily impossible for Trump to shift them over to him.

Plus Trump doesn't have the advantage of being an unknown that undecideds are willing to take a chance on. America knows exactly what he has to offer and they aint buying.

Quin_Dub

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Plus Trump doesn't have the advantage of being an unknown that undecideds are willing to take a chance on. America knows exactly what he has to offer and they aint buying.

Exactly - Which is part of the reason why there are so few people yet to make their mind up.

Both Candidates are extremely well known and clearly defined - At this point there are very few people that don't have a firm opinion about either Candidate.

All the really changes now will be the level of desire to vote - Hence Biden coming out yesterday saying "ignore the polls , register and get out and vote"

eagle eye

Brian? wrote:

Hey Kevin, no one asked what your biggest concern was. You were asked if calling it the Kung-flu was appropriate.

What's wrong with Kung-flu? Please explain it. I'm not looking for a position going off on a tangent.
I want you to specifically explain what's wrong with Kung-flu and what it refers to that makes it wrong.

duploelabs

eagle eye wrote: »

What's wrong with Kung-flu? Please explain it. I'm not looking for a position going off on a tangent.
I want you to specifically explain what's wrong with Kung-flu and what it refers to that makes it wrong.

I thought you'd quit this thread, not a person of your convictions?

Quin_Dub

eagle eye wrote: »

What's wrong with Kung-flu? Please explain it. I'm not looking for a position going off on a tangent.
I want you to specifically explain what's wrong with Kung-flu and what it refers to that makes it wrong.

It's infantile, childish and a little xenophobic.

It's not truly heinous or anything , but it's a classic example of passive aggressive racism/xenophobia.

Akin to people who refer to Chinese restaurants as "The Chinky" and the like.

Igotadose

Trump2020 app: risk your privacy for The Cult

https://www.alternet.org/2020/06/mit-report-exposes-trump-campaign-app-as-a-deceptive-surveillance-tool/

Brian?

eagle eye wrote: »

What's wrong with Kung-flu? Please explain it. I'm not looking for a position going off on a tangent.
I want you to specifically explain what's wrong with Kung-flu and what it refers to that makes it wrong.

I don’t give a flying **** what he calls it. It’s no skin off my nose at all. I never said I did.

My comment was about the manner in which the Congressman responded. Mock outrage because he hadn’t the stones to actually answer it. I find it incredibly annoying. It’s a cowards way out.

Carfacemandog

eagle eye wrote: »

What's wrong with Kung-flu? Please explain it. I'm not looking for a position going off on a tangent.
I want you to specifically explain what's wrong with Kung-flu and what it refers to that makes it wrong.

Hold on, haven't you complained repeatedly about people acting 'becoming' of their office/position while decrying the increasing lack of decorum in politics?

Foxtrol

Brian? wrote: »

I don’t give a flying **** what he calls it. It’s no skin off my nose at all. I never said I did.

My comment was about the manner in which the Congressman responded. Mock outrage because he hadn’t the stones to actually answer it. I find it incredibly annoying. It’s a cowards way out.

Asian Americans have historically been a decent support base for the GOP.

The more support Trump and the GOP burn the better.

PropJoe10

Cody montana wrote: »

Watched it a few times since yesterday.
Very emotional video.
Real presidents with real compassion and dignity.

How low America has fallen with Trump.

Indeed. Trump's Presidency has demonstrated how much more there is to being President than just economic policies. As a human being, he's totally unfit. No compassion, soul or feeling for what people are going through. He is totally incapable.