What TDs will lose their seat?

Muahahaha · 31-01-2020 7:07pm #1

What causalities might we see from this election? And what old faces might return to the Dail?

So far Im thinking Labours Jan o'Sullivan and Joan Burton are both in big battles. They might have enough to just stagger over the line but its going to be tight. Gino Kenny is going to struggle to retain his seat too. Noel Rock also in a spot of trouble against FFs Paul McAliffe.

Regards the return of previously elected TDs I think Aodhan o'Riordain in Dublin Bay North is certain to make a comeback after the Catherine Noone debacle. Also a good shout for the return of the international recording artist formerly known as Paul Gogarty TD.

blanch152 · 31-01-2020 7:08pm

Both Joan Burton and Ruth Coppinger are in trouble in Dublin West, with their seats looking like they are going to Sinn Fein (Paul Donnelly) and the Greens (Roderick O'Gorman).

Because of the large number of retirements, there may not be as many high-profile casualties as usual.

kerosene · 31-01-2020 7:16pm

I think Regina Doherty could lose her seat to sf.

It's a 3 seater and both her and Helen McEntee are in the same constituency. They both got in last time around narrowly.

If fg are to lose a seat here, I think it is more likely Regina Doherty than Helen McEntee.

Muahahaha · 31-01-2020 7:18pm

Sinn Feins Imelda Munster in Louth was another I read might be in trouble. Though Im not sure how as there is always a big SF vote in Louth and Gerry Adams is retiring.

Plumbthedepths · 31-01-2020 7:18pm

Noel Rock (FG)
Alan Farrell (FG)
Paul Murphy ( who is his party this week?)
Paul Kehoe (FG)

is_that_so · 31-01-2020 7:22pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Sinn Feins Imelda Munster in Louth was another I read might be in trouble. Though Im not sure how as there is always a big SF vote in Louth and Gerry Adams is retiring.

She might but it remains to be seen how much of a personal vote Adams had. On a bad day for them it could be 2 FF 2 FG 1 Lab but I reckon 1 FF 1 SF(Munster) 1 FG and 2 from FG/SF/Lab for the final seats.

mikemac2 · 31-01-2020 7:22pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Both Joan Burton and Ruth Coppinger are in trouble in Dublin West, with their seats looking like they are going to Sinn Fein (Paul Donnelly) and the Greens (Roderick O'Gorman).

+1

I see Dublin West going exactly like this

Donnelly very narrowly missed out on a seat last time, it won't happen again

kerosene · 31-01-2020 7:25pm

Peadar Toibin in meath west will have a big battle on his hand with sf, though I'd expect he will have enough support to get over the line.

is_that_so · 31-01-2020 7:25pm

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Noel Rock (FG)
Alan Farrell (FG)
Paul Murphy ( who is his party this week?)
Paul Kehoe (FG)

Rock is in most marginal seat so could be under pressure. Murphy will be at risk and Kehoe too. Doubt Farrell will lose out unless there is a newly discovered love for Reilly again!

emo72 · 31-01-2020 7:28pm

Joan Burton and Regina Doherty would be a massive present for us all. I'm sure they don't mean it but they come across as the most odious individuals ever.

Suckit · 31-01-2020 7:29pm

kerosene wrote: »

I think Regina Doherty could lose her seat to sf.

It's a 3 seater and both her and Helen McEntee are in the same constituency. They both got in last time around narrowly.

If fg are to lose a seat here, I think it is more likely Regina Doherty than Helen McEntee.

I could never vote for Helen McEntee (or Regina), despite hearing she's doing a good job, I've not seen any evidence of her doing anything except attending gigs with Leo. She showed no interest in politics before the death of her father, and when Enda Kenny promised her a seat in the Seanad if she didn't get her fathers seat in the by-election, that just sickened me.

In Fingal, FG are surely running the two weakest candidates in their entire party?
Alan Farrell and James Reilly. Neither are likely to get in on the merit of their own votes, but when one of them gives their votes to the other, then it may be possible. Hard to know if Farrell will keep his seat or will Reilly take it though.

Plumbthedepths · 31-01-2020 7:31pm

emo72 wrote: »

Joan Burton and Regina Doherty would be a massive present for us all. I'm sure they don't mean it but they come across as the most odious individuals ever.

+1 neither would be a loss, both gone would be a bonus.

is_that_so · 31-01-2020 7:32pm

kerosene wrote: »

Peadar Toibin in meath west will have a big battle on his hand with sf, though I'd expect he will have enough support to get over the line.

I think this one seat SF are likely to drop because of him.
The outcome for him depends how much the vote is split. If holds 60-70% or more of it he should be OK although he will probably be helped anyway by the lack of real opposition for that third seat.

gmisk · 31-01-2020 7:34pm

I would be surprised if Brid Smith lost her seat she has a fairly high profile.

Katherine zappone is bound to be at risk? She has been such a disappointment

Mortelaro · 31-01-2020 7:36pm

Soc dems Jenifer Whitmore will gain a seat in Wicklow at the expense of Andrew Doyle FG
I'll be giving her a useful transfer
I think the top 8 in the 1st count there will be
1 casey FF
2.Harris FG
3 Brady SF
4 Donnelly FF
5 Whitmore SD
6 Timmins FG
7 valerie Cox IND
8 Doyle FG

TheValeyard · 31-01-2020 7:40pm

gmisk wrote: »

I would be surprised if Brid Smith lost her seat she has a fairly high profile.

Katherine zappone is bound to be at risk? She has been such a disappointment

One can only both of these are gone.

McMurphy · 31-01-2020 7:43pm

is_that_so wrote: »

She might but it remains to be seen how much of a personal vote Adams had. On a bad day for them it could be 2 FF 2 FG 1 Lab but I reckon 1 FF 1 SF(Munster) 1 FG and 2 from FG/SF/Lab for the final seats.

She's second favourite @ 1 to 7 on after Declan Breathnacb from FF.

I would have thought she was s shoe in.

TheValeyard · 31-01-2020 7:44pm

And Mary Mitchell O Connor! She's some dose!

kerosene · 31-01-2020 8:14pm

McMurphy wrote: »

She's second favourite @ 1 to 7 on after Declan Breathnacb from FF.

I would have thought she was s shoe in.

I was reading that the local radio station lmfm are giving sf a chance of taking 2 seats, so you would have to imagine Imelda Munster is fairly secure.

is_that_so · 31-01-2020 8:18pm

McMurphy wrote: »

She's second favourite @ 1 to 7 on after Declan Breathnacb from FF.

I would have thought she was s shoe in.

As someone said on a thread, even very small amounts of money can skew odds, especially on small markets. Not the expression I'd use, that would be for Breathnach who will probably top the poll again, but yeah I expect her to get reelected. I am curious about how the vote might hold up. They lost 3/10 seats in the locals last year.

Edgware · 31-01-2020 8:20pm

gmisk wrote: »

I would be surprised if Brid Smith lost her seat she has a fairly high profile.

Katherine zappone is bound to be at risk? She has been such a disappointment

1. Ardagh is likely to win a seat leaving Smith or Collins at risk. Collins is a good constituency rep whereas Smith has been too busy fighting the class war.

2. Zappone is only a disappointment if you actually expected her to be of any use. Another one who thinks she knows what's best for the great unwashed

ChikiChiki · 31-01-2020 8:22pm

kerosene wrote: »

I think Regina Doherty could lose her seat to sf.

It's a 3 seater and both her and Helen McEntee are in the same constituency. They both got in last time around narrowly.

If fg are to lose a seat here, I think it is more likely Regina Doherty than Helen McEntee.

Hopefully. An arrogant entitled clown.

31-01-2020 8:23pm

Take#2, leaving the irreverence behind in AH. I live in Clare and Timmy Dooley is facing his first serious challenge in over a decade. The absentee vote scandal has leveled the playing field, with a seat no longer guaranteed. Met him on the campaign trail and an air of quiet desperation was apparent. The price of complacency, his prominence is no more.

padd b1975 · 31-01-2020 8:24pm

gmisk wrote: »

I would be surprised if Brid Smith lost her seat she has a fairly high profile.

Katherine zappone is bound to be at risk? She has been such a disappointment

Smith only got in by about 35 votes last time, she doesn't have the water protest momentum this time.

Zappone got elected on about the fourteenth count and has been very gaffe prone.

Both are definitely in danger.

In fact, I could see only Rich Boy being the only Trot elected, and even that is far from a sure thing.

rn · 31-01-2020 8:27pm

I think FF Eugene Murphy could be bet by orla leyden in Roscommon East Galway.

PopePalpatine · 31-01-2020 8:29pm

is_that_so wrote: »

I think this one seat SF are likely to drop because of him.
The outcome for him depends how much the vote is split. If holds 60-70% or more of it he should be OK although he will probably be helped anyway by the lack of real opposition for that third seat.

Yeah, I'd say he'd hold on thanks to his constituency work. Behind Cassels, Damien English has two running mates fighting for his transfers, so that's them fecked, SF lost over half of their council seats last year and I wouldn't hold out much hope for the SD and Green candidates.

Oh, and Renua drew the short straw against the Sosialistí Naisiúnta and the Irexit idiots, so they have to prop up the field.

Tefral · 31-01-2020 8:29pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Take#2, leaving the irreverence behind in AH. I live in Clare and Timmy Dooley is facing his first serious challenge in over a decade. The absentee vote scandal has leveled the playing field, with a seat no longer guaranteed. Met him on the campaign trail and an air of quiet desperation was apparent. The price of complacency, his prominence is no more.

Agreed. I think Cathal Crowe will take his seat.

Edgware · 31-01-2020 8:29pm

Prince in Donegal would be no great loss

gmisk · 31-01-2020 8:35pm

Edgware wrote: »

1. Ardagh is likely to win a seat leaving Smith or Collins at risk. Collins is a good constituency rep whereas Smith has been too busy fighting the class war.

2. Zappone is only a disappointment if you actually expected her to be of any use. Another one who thinks she knows what's best for the great unwashed

1. You could be right, the only people knocking on my door have been labour and the greens. I have met the councillor a few times who took Brid Smith's seat and she is really lovely and works hard (hazel de nortuin) Joan Collins you are right she seems to put in a lot of effort locally.
2. I think she got in based on her admittedly really admirable work on marriage equality case, but she has been poor, didn't she have something dodgy come up to do with travel expenses?

gmisk · 31-01-2020 8:45pm

Edgware wrote: »

Prince in Donegal would be no great loss

Does it look like Peter Casey is gonna flop? The odds indicate it...

joebloggs32 · 31-01-2020 8:48pm

gmisk wrote: »

1. You could be right, the only people knocking on my door have been labour and the greens. I have met the councillor a few times who took Brid Smith's seat and she is really lovely and works hard (hazel de nortuin) Joan Collins you are right she seems to put in a lot of effort locally.
2. I think she got in based on her admittedly really admirable work on marriage equality case, but she has been poor, didn't she have something dodgy come up to do with travel expenses?

Zappones sat navs brings her on a longer route to the dail than necessary which puts her travel claim into the next distance bracket.

What TDs will lose their seat?

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