What TDs will lose their seat?

Muahahaha · 31-01-2020 8:49pm

gmisk wrote: »

2. I think she got in based on her admittedly really admirable work on marriage equality case, but she has been poor, didn't she have something dodgy come up to do with travel expenses?

Yeah Zappone was barely a wet week in the door as a minister and it came out that she was claiming her journey from her house to the Dail was more than 25km despite Google Maps saying it was 23km. iirc by her deliberately taking a longer route it was worth an extra 20k a year in expenses to her. Pretty shameful behaviour, real snout in the trough stuff from her.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 31-01-2020 8:52pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Sinn Feins Imelda Munster in Louth was another I read might be in trouble. Though Im not sure how as there is always a big SF vote in Louth and Gerry Adams is retiring.

Would be very surprised by this

Notmything · 31-01-2020 8:53pm

Funchion (SF) in Cw/Kk must be vulnerable. The SF vote looks like it has fallen badly and she has been fairly anonymous for the constituency. Her seat might end up going to a third FF or the green.

Calhoun · 31-01-2020 8:58pm

Edgware wrote: »

1. Ardagh is likely to win a seat leaving Smith or Collins at risk. Collins is a good constituency rep whereas Smith has been too busy fighting the class war.

2. Zappone is only a disappointment if you actually expected her to be of any use. Another one who thinks she knows what's best for the great unwashed

Hoping Zapppne goes and we get out these special education tzars with fairly questionable backgrounds out.

prunudo · 31-01-2020 8:59pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

Soc dems Jenifer Whitmore will gain a seat in Wicklow at the expense of Andrew Doyle FG
I'll be giving her a useful transfer
I think the top 8 in the 1st count there will be
1 casey FF
2.Harris FG
3 Brady SF
4 Donnelly FF
5 Whitmore SD
6 Timmins FG
7 valerie Cox IND
8 Doyle FG

Reckon the top 3 are a shoe in, I'd be worried for Donnelly though, a lot of people who voted for him on the basis he was a SocDem last time felt very betrayed when he moved over to FF. Reckon Whitmore has a good shout at getting a seat so think the 5th seat will be between Donnelly and Doyle.
Ivan Yates reckons Valerie Cox has a good chance too given her profile on East coast radio and the demographic she's aiming for.

Muahahaha · 31-01-2020 9:53pm

Maleah Fierce Putter wrote: »

Would be very surprised by this

Yeah same here. I forget what hack wrote that Imelda Munster is in trouble but it sounded strange to me too. Most likely I read it in the Indo whose default position is to make Sinn Fein candidates look weak even when they're not.

Hodors Appletart · 31-01-2020 10:01pm

yeah Rock will go DNW is a 3-Seater and has lost the leafier parts of Drumcondra and Glasnevin which would have been his base I've never seen him in finglas ever mcauliffe is all over finglas all the time

ellis and shortall will also be returned

zell12 · 31-01-2020 10:02pm

Govt chief whip Sean Kyne may lose seat in Galway West.
Currently two FGs there, but only one will be elected

Dyr · 31-01-2020 10:08pm

Hodors Appletart wrote: »

yeah Rock will go DNW is a 3-Seater and has lost the leafier parts of Drumcondra and Glasnevin which would have been his base I've never seen him in finglas ever mcauliffe is all over finglas all the time

ellis and shortall will also be returned

I think the last seat could be a Battle between Rock and Ellis rather than McAuliffe, Ellis really needed Carney Bouds transfers to get him over the line last time and SF are notrunning her this time. Ellis is not as transfer friendly as Rock, if his first preference is down he could be in squeaky bum territory.

Hodors Appletart · 31-01-2020 10:15pm

i think the new make-up of the constituency means ellis is probably more likely to be elected it's definitely more working class than it was and i don't see where rock gets transfers from

i think you are right in that mcauliffe will be comfortable elected after roisin but i don't see the third seat as a battle really

squawker · 31-01-2020 10:16pm

please be Alan Kelly

I will offer my first born

WoollyRedHat · 31-01-2020 10:24pm

All of them with any luck.

Dyr · 31-01-2020 10:29pm

Hodors Appletart wrote: »

i think the new make-up of the constituency means ellis is probably more likely to be elected it's definitely more working class than it was and i don't see where rock gets transfers from

i think you are right in that mcauliffe will be comfortable elected after roisin but i don't see the third seat as a battle really

Historically Ellis never got much from Shorthalls surplus or from anyone else so if his first preference is down he could be in trouble, and McAuliffe has muscled in on Dessies stamping ground in Finglas so thats a real possibility.

What could save him is Rock may also find his first preference down.

Dyr · 31-01-2020 10:31pm

squawker wrote: »

please be Alan Kelly

I will offer my first born

Hopefully its goes to about 5 recounts and he loses. An unmitigated bollix.

Dravokivich · 31-01-2020 10:32pm

I think Gino Kenny has the right demographic here, to get in again.

The questions might be better pointed towards Fianna Fails longevity and whoever is leading the campaign of defacing fine Gael posters in clondalkin.

There might be something turning towards a stronger PBP/SF presence here and would expect them to do well.

RandomViewer · 31-01-2020 10:41pm

Edgware wrote: »

Prince in Donegal would be no great loss

Pringle you mean? Should have stood aside and let Michael colm have a go.

RandomViewer · 31-01-2020 10:43pm

gmisk wrote: »

Does it look like Peter Casey is gonna flop? The odds indicate it...

Him and the white supremist dog boy will be fighting for bottom of the poll

ChikiChiki · 31-01-2020 10:47pm

prunudo wrote: »

Reckon the top 3 are a shoe in, I'd be worried for Donnelly though, a lot of people who voted for him on the basis he was a SocDem last time felt very betrayed when he moved over to FF. Reckon Whitmore has a good shout at getting a seat so think the 5th seat will be between Donnelly and Doyle.
Ivan Yates reckons Valerie Cox has a good chance too given her profile on East coast radio and the demographic she's aiming for.

Why is Harris such a cert? From my recollection throughout his career to date he has been very poor.

Grueller · 31-01-2020 10:47pm

Michael Darcy may catch the Veronavirus in Wexford.

RandomViewer · 31-01-2020 10:50pm

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Why is Harris such a cert? From my recollection throughout his career to date he has been very poor.

Constituency is full of entitled chinless wonders like himself,
They vote for their own kind

osarusan · 31-01-2020 10:58pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

So far Im thinking Labours Jan o'Sullivan and Joan Burton are both in big battles.

O'Sullivan scraped in last time but lost a lot of votes to Cian Prendeville, who is not running again. Now, Quinlivan of SF and Jenny Blake of SD will pick up some of those also, but she will get some also.

Quinlivan has done SFA since his election, and SF lost badly in Limerick's local elections. Noonan's retirement might have an impact on the FG vote also.

prunudo · 31-01-2020 11:24pm

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Why is Harris such a cert? From my recollection throughout his career to date he has been very poor.

Because despite what social media and posters on here would have us believe and given the poison chalice he has, he is a good politician and is well liked.

gmisk · 31-01-2020 11:26pm

RandomViewer wrote: »

Him and the white supremist dog boy will be fighting for bottom of the poll

Let's hope so.
I saw those posters....hmmm...odd

Calhoun · 31-01-2020 11:30pm

prunudo wrote: »

Because despite what social media and posters on here would have us believe and given the poison chalice he has, he is a good politician and is well liked.

The poor fella, all those out there trying to ruin his legacy.

AuldDaysul · 31-01-2020 11:37pm

Bambi wrote: »

Hopefully its goes to about 5 recounts and he loses. An unmitigated bollix.

He's 1/4 to take a seat unfortunately

History Queen · 31-01-2020 11:43pm

AuldDaysul wrote: »

He's 1/4 to take a seat unfortunately

Not a fan,and less so now after an encounter with a particularly obnoxious canvasser of his, but he is putting serious effort in to his campaign. Liam Sheedy and Vicky Phelan at his launch, double canvassing areas (had two sets of canvassers for him here in 3 days) and more and more posters springing up everyday. Along with at least 3 branded vehicles roaming the county. He's determined to get in.

El Tarangu · 31-01-2020 11:52pm

Suckit wrote: »

I could never vote for Helen McEntee (or Regina), despite hearing she's doing a good job [...] She showed no interest in politics before the death of her father, and when Enda Kenny promised her a seat in the Seanad if she didn't get her fathers seat in the by-election, that just sickened me.

She worked for a couple of years as her father's parliamentary assistant, which would be a not untypical start for someone looking to enter politics (setting aside the nepotism considerations for a moment).