What TDs will lose their seat?

appledrop

I think Alan Farrell is at risk. People of Fingal not impressed with compro claim + running James Reilly aswell silly move from FG. I think FG could lose seat although transfers might save them.

Suckit

appledrop wrote: »

I think Alan Farrell is at risk. People of Fingal not impressed with compro claim + running James Reilly aswell silly move from FG. I think FG could lose seat although transfers might save them.

I was trying to work that out earlier. It is truly baffling that James Reilly is running again.

He got 3,707 (1st) votes in the By-election of a 25% turnout of 25,344, having lost his seat in 2016 with 6,215 votes of a 65% turnout of 60,388. He was given an extra 459 votes (which achieved nothing).
Farrell got in in 2016 with 9,965 votes on the 10th count after he was given an extra 996.
I have a feeling there will be a bigger turnout this year, but I don't believe either will get through even with extra votes being shared.

Lorraine Clifford-Lee will likely take a seat, as will Joe O'Brien.
Darragh O'Brien is expected to walk it.

That leaves 2 seats. I don't believe Farrell has done anything to win extra votes, and he is far more likely to lose a lot of them.

I don't think either of those will get through. Darragh O'Brien and Lorraine Clifford-Lee likely to share any extras with somebody else.

pineappleguru

Suckit wrote: »

I could never vote for Helen McEntee (or Regina), despite hearing she's doing a good job, I've not seen any evidence of her doing anything except attending gigs with Leo. She showed no interest in politics before the death of her father, and when Enda Kenny promised her a seat in the Seanad if she didn't get her fathers seat in the by-election, that just sickened me.

In Fingal, FG are surely running the two weakest candidates in their entire party?
Alan Farrell and James Reilly. Neither are likely to get in on the merit of their own votes, but when one of them gives their votes to the other, then it may be possible. Hard to know if Farrell will keep his seat or will Reilly take it though.

I think McEntee will be ok. She is very popular in North Meath and would still retain many voters who were loyal to her father. (The logic in that is a different argument)

pineappleguru

is_that_so wrote: »

I think this one seat SF are likely to drop because of him.
The outcome for him depends how much the vote is split. If holds 60-70% or more of it he should be OK although he will probably be helped anyway by the lack of real opposition for that third seat.

Can’t see it being anything anything other than Tóibín, English and Cassels again

cameramonkey

Notmything wrote: »

Funchion (SF) in Cw/Kk must be vulnerable. The SF vote looks like it has fallen badly and she has been fairly anonymous for the constituency. Her seat might end up going to a third FF or the green.

Deering will lose the seat, Funchion should be ok.

circadian

I can't see Reilly keeping his seat.

Noel Rock is in trouble for sure but I'll give him a preference if only to keep McAuliffe out. I think Ellis will make it and Shorthall would be a shocker if she didn't top this again.

For me I'll be putting down
Shorthall
Montague
Conroy
Rock (reluctantly)

There's some national party head running too, be interesting to see their numbers.

feargale

squawker wrote: »

please be Alan Kelly

I will offer my first born

Just curious.

Could somebody please tell me the reason for all the social media sentiment against Alan Kelly?

What has he done that's offensive? I read comments about him being arrogant but I never read substantiation.

Incidentally I can't vote for or against him.

McMurphy

feargale wrote: »

Just curious.

Could somebody please tell me the reason for all the social media sentiment against Alan Kelly?

What has he done that's offensive? I read comments about him being arrogant but I never read substantiation.

Incidentally I can't vote for or against him.

Irish Water was a poisoned chalice..

That is all.

Calhoun

feargale wrote: »

Just curious.

Could somebody please tell me the reason for all the social media sentiment against Alan Kelly?

What has he done that's offensive? I read comments about him being arrogant but I never read substantiation.

Incidentally I can't vote for or against him.

Wasn't there an incident where he was being super arrogant about being in charge ect. Cannot remember the exact thing but was a big deal at the time.

Augme

feargale wrote: »

Just curious.

Could somebody please tell me the reason for all the social media sentiment against Alan Kelly?

What has he done that's offensive? I read comments about him being arrogant but I never read substantiation.

Incidentally I can't vote for or against him.

"Anybody who says that power isn’t attractive is telling you a lie. Of course it is,” he grins.

“It’s obviously a drug. It’s attractive. It’s something you thrive on. It suits some people. It doesn’t suit others. I think it suits me.”


https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/rightcol/alan-kelly-power-is-a-drug-it-suits-me-34410065.html

Yurt2

Grueller wrote: »

Veronavirus in Wexford.

I'm stealing that one！

partypat

Let us homie the FG meltdown happens and Harris is not elected

appledrop

Suckit wrote: »

I was trying to work that out earlier. It is truly baffling that James Reilly is running again.

He got 3,707 (1st) votes in the By-election of a 25% turnout of 25,344, having lost his seat in 2016 with 6,215 votes of a 65% turnout of 60,388. He was given an extra 459 votes (which achieved nothing).
Farrell got in in 2016 with 9,965 votes on the 10th count after he was given an extra 996.
I have a feeling there will be a bigger turnout this year, but I don't believe either will get through even with extra votes being shared.

Lorraine Clifford-Lee will likely take a seat, as will Joe O'Brien.
Darragh O'Brien is expected to walk it.

That leaves 2 seats. I don't believe Farrell has done anything to win extra votes, and he is far more likely to lose a lot of them.

I don't think either of those will get through. Darragh O'Brien and Lorraine Clifford-Lee likely to share any extras with somebody else.

Duncan Smith is expected to poll well. Being a Labour canidate doesnt help but did well in by- election. Cant stand Clifford Lee. Hope she doesnt get a seat. Dont forget Greens topped poll in by-election so will likely hold their seat.

Hodors Appletart

circadian wrote: »

There's some national party head running too, be interesting to see their numbers.

the wallies always seem to target this constituency for some reason there were other weird rightists running last time too those direct democracy people

Plumbthedepths

Squeaky bum time for several sitting FG TD's if this poll is accurate. Guess the Brexit fear mongering ain't working.


https://www.thejournal.ie/opinion-poll-9-4988666-Feb2020/

Roadtoad

Kildare South: (3 available seats):
No losers, Wall (l) in 4th place.

Kildare North (4 seats)
O'Rourke (ff) will lose to Stagg (l)

Ger Roe

prunudo wrote: »

Reckon the top 3 are a shoe in, I'd be worried for Donnelly though, a lot of people who voted for him on the basis he was a SocDem last time felt very betrayed when he moved over to FF. Reckon Whitmore has a good shout at getting a seat so think the 5th seat will be between Donnelly and Doyle.
Ivan Yates reckons Valerie Cox has a good chance too given her profile on East coast radio and the demographic she's aiming for.

Donnelly was independent when he was elected - with strong views on how the big parties had failed us, particularly FF who had just rode the country bankrupt at the time. He then formed/joined the Social Dems and then jumped ship to the party that he had delivered most of his criticism towards (FF). I would say he is in trouble.... he was elected on an anti establishment ticket and then hopped around until he got a high enough profile for himself. That wasn't the basis that he was elected on.

I would also like to see Zaponne, and Regina Doherty face a dishonourable discharge from the electorate. Zaponne was an Enda Kenny vote deal appointment to a position that she hasn't a clue about and she has now done serious damage to the youth work and child care sector. Regina Doherty is wheeled out as a spokesperson for FG whenever needed, but never comes across as someone who actually knows what she's doing. She always sounds like she only says the words that the PR briefing people told her to say - no ability to think and talk with any sense of understanding and authority (IMHO).

ricero

If Joan Burton doesn't lose her seat then I give up having any faith in the people of Dublin west

Underground

I'm thinking (hoping) Josepha Madigan is at risk. Shane Ross was one of the first TD's past the post last time and I think he'll be safe. Everyone is mad for the Greens right now so Catherine Martin will keep her seat.

With FF gaining momentum and FG seemingly struggling I think she has a big battle on her hands to keep her seat.

Homelander

In Galway West Sean Kyne (FG), Catherine Connolly (IND) and Hildegarde Naughton (FG) will be worried about their seats as someone is likely going to lose out of the 3.

I think no change in Galway East and probably not in Galway Roscommon either.

headtheball14

Please let it be Mary Mitchell o Connor in dun laoighre
V unlikely but just received her election flyer.
It gives information on funding to sports clubs received in last 3 years. Great to see blackrock college rugby club chronically underfunded to date receive their due reward topping the list with 150 thousand Euro followed by seapoint rugby club and the national yacht club with just under 150, 000 each ��

Yurt2

headtheball14 wrote: »

Please let it be Mary Mitchell o Connor in dun laoighre
V unlikely but just received her election flyer.
It gives information on funding to sports clubs received in last 3 years. Great to see blackrock college rugby club chronically underfunded to date receive their due reward topping the list with 150 thousand Euro followed by seapoint rugby club and the national yacht club with just under 150, 000 each ��

Yuck. I asked Santa for MMOC to lose her seat.

antimatterx

Calhoun wrote: »

The poor fella, all those out there trying to ruin his legacy.

The Minister for Health is probably the toughest, most unrewarding job in government. Progress will always be slow, and could possibly end your career because people expect it to be fixed overnight.

It's a thankless job.

antimatterx

Even as a FG member I hope James Reily fails to win a seat. I don't like that man at all. His political career needs to end.

McMurphy

Roadtoad wrote: »

Kildare South: (3 available seats):
No losers, Wall (l) in 4th place.

Kildare North (4 seats)
O'Rourke (ff) will lose to Stagg (l)

Don't see it myself, stagg was roundly rejected last time.

I reckon it's going to be

Catherine Murphy
James Lawless
Frank O'Rourke
Bernard Durkan/Anthony Lawlor slogging it out for 4th.

Drifter50

Underground wrote: »

I'm thinking (hoping) Josepha Madigan is at risk. Shane Ross was one of the first TD's past the post last time and I think he'll be safe. Everyone is mad for the Greens right now so Catherine Martin will keep her seat.

With FF gaining momentum and FG seemingly struggling I think she has a big battle on her hands to keep her seat.

Mmmm, I think Ross will go and be replaced by Neale Richmond. Madigan is damaged by her involvement with Maria Bailey and a lot of voters in this constituency would be SME involved and won`t like that

Looking like Green Party 1, Shay Brennan should squeak in for FF and Neale Richmond for FG
Shane Ross and Josepha Madigan to go

Catherine Martin is the only safe one

Kivaro

Ger Roe wrote: »

I would also like to see Zaponne, and Regina Doherty face a dishonourable discharge from the electorate. Zaponne was an Enda Kenny vote deal appointment to a position that she hasn't a clue about and she has now done serious damage to the youth work and child care sector.

Besides the Halawa's and their merry band of Muslim Brotherhood supporters, who would vote for Zappone again?
Her performance and record for children in Ireland is abysmal. Her priority was mainly costly virtue signalling projects to the detriment of Irish children e.g. the money used to bring bearded male teens to Ireland from Calais migrant camps was taken from other programs in her department.

Dyr

Hodors Appletart wrote: »

the wallies always seem to target this constituency for some reason there were other weird rightists running last time too those direct democracy people

One the subject of weirdos, you have the workers party and PBP bring up the rear as well with assorted indo head the balls

I've only seen one poster up for the National Party fella and he's giving the camera a dirty look like the photographer is a foreign johnny.

Calhoun

antimatterx wrote: »

The Minister for Health is probably the toughest, most unrewarding job in government. Progress will always be slow, and could possibly end your career because people expect it to be fixed overnight.

It's a thankless job.

It's like we just run around saying poisoned chalice and that should be good enough.

Like it or not he was out there for a reason, as he backed the wrong pony in the leadership race.

The problem with Harris he is a champion of doing sweet FA and shows mettle and backbone in the safer parts of his brief where he barely has to do **** all.

Come back to us when you have someone vulnerable who actually needs the service and you see the slimey little weazel try and excuse a piss poor performance.

Suckit

appledrop wrote: »

Duncan Smith is expected to poll well. Being a Labour canidate doesnt help but did well in by- election. Cant stand Clifford Lee. Hope she doesnt get a seat. Dont forget Greens topped poll in by-election so will likely hold their seat.

I don't know Clifford-Lee at all, other than she is married to a DM journalist.

But yep, Joe O'Brien (Greens), LCL (FF) and Smith (Lab) all got in in the By-election.

If that was to repeat, it would possibly leave only one seat for Farrell and Reilly to battle for. I think that even if they share their votes that they might struggle for that seat.