What TDs will lose their seat?

Richard Hillman

headtheball14 wrote: »

Please let it be Mary Mitchell o Connor in dun laoighre
V unlikely but just received her election flyer.
It gives information on funding to sports clubs received in last 3 years. Great to see blackrock college rugby club chronically underfunded to date receive their due reward topping the list with 150 thousand Euro followed by seapoint rugby club and the national yacht club with just under 150, 000 each ��

I think she could be a decent sneaky bet. FG are running 3 candidates in the Borough. I think that people who will vote for the other 2 FGs would be voting purposely because they dislike her.

Obviously she'll get good preference votes from them but I don't think it will be as big a bump as people may think

IAMAMORON

I think any of the independents who did not support the last government are potentially in trouble.

Too many cranks in the Dáil and not enough doers. A lot of them are a waste of time, their voters cop on after a while.

Calhoun

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think any of the independents who did not support the last government are potentially in trouble.

Too many cranks in the Dáil and not enough doers. A lot of them are a waste of time, their voters cop on after a while.

I agree but not for the same reason I see allot of the Independents possibly in trouble, they did not have the impact on the politics that people thought and the ones that did side with them have not been the best.

Out of the supporters I say Ross and Zapppne will be the high profile casualties the rest might have done enough locally to be ok.

IAMAMORON

Calhoun wrote: »

I agree but not for the same reason I see allot of the Independents possibly in trouble, they did not have the impact on the politics that people thought and the ones that did side with them have not been the best.

Out of the supporters I say Ross and Zapppne will be the high profile casualties the rest might have done enough locally to be ok.

People are talking about Shane Ross alright. I cannot see it happening. He received the most amount of first preferences a few elections back. Even more than Willie O'Dea.

He is also everywhere, works really hard. I opened my bread bin this morning and he was sitting there handing me out my loaf.:p

Personally I like him.

oceanman

gmisk wrote: »

Does it look like Peter Casey is gonna flop? The odds indicate it...

hopefully

Maewyn Succat

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

All of them with any luck.

I presume you can offer a valid alternative...

pirlo80

prunudo wrote: »

Reckon the top 3 are a shoe in, I'd be worried for Donnelly though, a lot of people who voted for him on the basis he was a SocDem last time felt very betrayed when he moved over to FF. Reckon Whitmore has a good shout at getting a seat so think the 5th seat will be between Donnelly and Doyle.
Ivan Yates reckons Valerie Cox has a good chance too given her profile on East coast radio and the demographic she's aiming for.

Donnelly is in real trouble I don't think he'll be close to getting elected.

IAMAMORON

pirlo80 wrote: »

Donnelly is in real trouble I don't think he'll be close to getting elected.

I don't think Fiona Foyle shares your pessimism here. He was on the party political broadcast midweek.

He could be minister for anything in a few weeks if the country doesn't wise up.

I am not an effeffer, but I think he has brains to burn.

Edgware

IAMAMORON wrote: »

People are talking about Shane Ross alright. I cannot see it happening. He received the most amount of first preferences a few elections back. Even more than Willie O'Dea.

He is also everywhere, works really hard. I opened my bread bin this morning and he was sitting there handing me out my loaf.:p

Personally I like him.

I heard he was back stewarding a Parkrun this morning after suffering a serious injury last week.
He should get a C.B.E. , (clout behind ear)

RandomViewer

Drifter50 wrote: »

Mmmm, I think Ross will go and be replaced by Neale Richmond. Madigan is damaged by her involvement with Maria Bailey and a lot of voters in this constituency would be SME involved and won`t like that

Looking like Green Party 1, Shay Brennan should squeak in for FF and Neale Richmond for FG
Shane Ross and Josepha Madigan to go

Catherine Martin is the only safe one

is he the twit that wanted to rd join the commonwealth, what is it about FG and wanting British titles

MMAbhoy

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I don't think Fiona Foyle shares your pessimism here. He was on the party political broadcast midweek.

He could be minister for anything in a few weeks if the country doesn't wise up.

I am not an effeffer, but I think he has brains to burn.

He may have brains to burn but a lot of the people who elected him did so because they wouldnt vote FF or FG, that part of the electorate looks to have only increased recently (ie wouldnt vote for 2 of the main parties) so I dont fancy his chances...we'll see next week

Muahahaha

History Queen wrote: »

Not a fan,and less so now after an encounter with a particularly obnoxious canvasser of his, but he is putting serious effort in to his campaign. Liam Sheedy and Vicky Phelan at his launch, double canvassing areas (had two sets of canvassers for him here in 3 days) and more and more posters springing up everyday. Along with at least 3 branded vehicles roaming the county. He's determined to get in.

AFAIK Alan Kelly has a big personal vote in Tipperary but from memory it was still a tight run thing for him last time out. After the election there will be a Labour leadership contest as they have to have one after every election (its in their partys constitution). Last time out none of their other 6 TDs would even nominate Kelly for the position because they wanted to give Brendan Howlin a free run. This time out Id say they all agree Howlins run has come to an end, he hasnt improved their polling numbers at all in the last four years. Would expect Jan o'Sullivan (if she holds her seat) and Aodhan o'Riordain to also try to be the next Labour party leader.

charlie14

Deleted User wrote: »

Take#2, leaving the irreverence behind in AH. I live in Clare and Timmy Dooley is facing his first serious challenge in over a decade. The absentee vote scandal has leveled the playing field, with a seat no longer guaranteed. Met him on the campaign trail and an air of quiet desperation was apparent. The price of complacency, his prominence is no more.

I would not be fooled by the "Jezz I`m fcuked" antics of any TD running for re-election.
As for the absentee voting goes, far as the electorate are concerned they were all at it and have more serious considerations as to who will receive their votes.

Plumbthedepths

Red C rumoured to have FG trailing SF and FF.

https://twitter.com/EwanMacKenna


FF &SF both on 24%
FG on 21%
Trend emerging if the Red C poll is confirmed.

charlie14

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Red C rumoured to have FG trailing SF and FF.

https://twitter.com/EwanMacKenna


FF &SF both on 24%
FG on 21%
Trend emerging if the Red C poll is confirmed.

If those figures do pan out it looks as if SF have not ran enough candidates to become the largest party as I cannot see all 42 getting elected.

Plumbthedepths

charlie14 wrote: »

If those figures do pan out it looks as if SF have not ran enough candidates to become the largest party as I cannot see all 42 getting elected.

I suspect SF will be happy to be the main party of opposition.
Still gives one hope that the stranglehold FF and FG have had on the reins of government may be finally broken, if the poll is correct only 45% between the 2 of them. Where once they would command 45% on their own.

Calhoun

Call me cynical but possibly see some big play to discredit them .

If the polls stand and they pip FG in numbers Leo is gone.

charlie14

Calhoun wrote: »

Call me cynical but possibly see some big play to discredit them .

If the polls stand and they pip FG in numbers Leo is gone.

Varadkar doesn`t get back as Taoiseach he is gone anyway.

RandomViewer

charlie14 wrote: »

Varadkar doesn`t get back as Taoiseach he is gone anyway.

He is gone either way, the TDs that pushed him for Taoiseach are retiring or losing their seats, cold house for Varadker after the election

Calhoun

charlie14 wrote: »

Varadkar doesn`t get back as Taoiseach he is gone anyway.

Good point, i am not sure how they will go if they dont get back in who would make a run on the leadership. Could be Coveny as he is quite insulated the past while due to percieved performance on brexit.

MMAbhoy

Calhoun wrote: »

Call me cynical but possibly see some big play to discredit them .

If the polls stand and they pip FG in numbers Leo is gone.

Absolutely waiting for this, something to hit the media maybe Weds or Thurs I'd say

RandomViewer

Calhoun wrote: »

Good point, i am not sure how they will go if they dont get back in who would make a run on the leadership. Could be Coveny as he is quite insulated the past while due to percieved performance on brexit.

Coveney may not be re-elected, tail end Charlie last election

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

Varadkar doesn`t get back as Taoiseach he is gone anyway.

Not if they are close and the reason seems to be the party's overall performance Apart from the fact parties don't do regicide they'll gain nothing from dumping him. He might decide to step aside but he won't be ousted.

Plumbthedepths

Calhoun wrote: »

Good point, i am not sure how they will go if they dont get back in who would make a run on the leadership. Could be Coveny as he is quite insulated the past while due to percieved performance on brexit.

Brexit apparently is not an issue on the doorsteps despite FG attempting to scaremonger about the future. All this half time nonsense is being treated as such by the electorate. It's irrelevant who is office as there was cross party support for the states position. Also FG have overstated their position in the talks.
Covent was a failure in housing and couldn't get out of the portfolio fast enough.

charlie14

Calhoun wrote: »

Good point, i am not sure how they will go if they dont get back in who would make a run on the leadership. Could be Coveny as he is quite insulated the past while due to percieved performance on brexit.

If he is re-elected I wouldn`t see anyone else.
None of Varadkar`s other front benchers would have a hope.

lawred2

RandomViewer wrote: »

Coveney may not be re-elected, tail end Charlie last election

Coveney will be reelected. One of the few FG TDs to have gained widespread cross party praise for his work the last few years. Cork would be stupid to not reelect him.

He'd be a loss to the Dail.

However, just like his brother, there'd be a juicy career in the private sector waiting for him if he did get the boot.

charlie14

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Brexit apparently is not an issue on the doorsteps despite FG attempting to scaremonger about the future. All this half time nonsense is being treated as such by the electorate. It's irrelevant who is office as there was cross party support for the states position. Also FG have overstated their position in the talks.
Covent was a failure in housing and couldn't get out of the portfolio fast enough.

Where they thought they were going with Brexit as their main plank beats me. Then again, from their past 4 years there was nothing much else they could go with.

prunudo

RandomViewer wrote: »

Coveney may not be re-elected, tail end Charlie last election

Would be a shame to see him exit politics, he's done great things during the Brexit talks. Always comes across reasoned and sensible unlike Varadkar who is liable to say anything.

L1011

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I don't think Fiona Foyle shares your pessimism here. He was on the party political broadcast midweek.

He could be minister for anything in a few weeks if the country doesn't wise up.

I am not an effeffer, but I think he has brains to burn.

You absolutely have to put a high profiler in risk in your PPB though. I suspect he'll scrape it but a substantial volume of his votes in 2011 and 2016 were ABFF

I'm fairly sure the SDs are going to suffer a % loss nationally from him being gone too due to people who voted SD to "get Donnelly". However I would expect them to still win at least one extra seat based on polling from the possibles of Wicklow, Galway West and Dublin Central - its the other constituencies they'll be down votes in to drag the total down.

McMurphy

Calhoun wrote: »

Call me cynical but possibly see some big play to discredit them .

If the polls stand and they pip FG in numbers Leo is gone.

Lol, the media (specifically the Indo) ran with anti shinner propaganda almost the entire week last week, still not copping on that in this day and age of social media, the electorate don't like being treated like they're not intelligent enough to cast a vote on their own.

There was a big deal being made of the shinners Ard Chomhairle, and insinuations being dropped that it was some secretive organisation with beaded men in balaclavas operating from a safe house in Republican South Derry, when the reality is much different.

Here's a video RTE made of the Ard Chomhairle in action.

https://twitter.com/JoeEDwyer/status/1222049026243166209?s=19

It's looking like the FFG revolving door to govt may be coming up an end.