What TDs will lose their seat?

hotmail.com · 02-02-2020 11:19pm

fx83wab wrote: »

If you're electing a TD, you're electing them for the Dáil and the possibility of government. TDs operate on a national level. This idea of parish pump politics should be left to the councillors. It's a major problem we have with politics and elections in this country.

Unless you're in government, can you blame our TDs for doing all the local rubbish.

The system means that most backbench TDs do nothing and merely vote on bills and they are whipped for them.

Suckit · 02-02-2020 11:20pm

hotmail.com wrote: »

Stephen Donnelly in Wicklow in trouble.

Is he contemplating a move to SF?

hotmail.com · 02-02-2020 11:22pm

McMurphy wrote: »

I've heard this being said quite a few times now, seriously?

I'm not from that area, and I'd guess there's a fair bit of animosity towards him going from being an Independent > Social Democrat > FF.

However I believe he is one of the more intelligent TDs in the Dail, and the people in Wicklow would be basically cutting of their noses to spite the face.

I've voted for candidates loads of times before despite not being too impress with their respective party's (FF/FG namely)

Didn't a Labour TD switch to FF during the last Dail and he lost his seat in Clare. The only FF TD to lose his seat in 2016.

Voters don't really like turn coats.

Suckit · 02-02-2020 11:25pm

Could somebody please explain James Reilly and his connection with the hospital in Swords?

Every time I see his name mentioned, he is talking about needing that hospital, looking for cross party support, or just mentioning it.
Does he own that hospital?

gmisk · 02-02-2020 11:25pm

AmberGold wrote: »

If Alan Farrell gets in with his dodgy claim I’ll be astonished.

Going by betting odds he will scrape in.... disappointing.
He is some chancer even running!

tayto lover · 02-02-2020 11:26pm

McMurphy wrote: »

Irish Water was a poisoned chalice..

That is all.

That and being totally obnoxious.

gmisk · 02-02-2020 11:31pm

I checked odds from Dublin south Central where I vote.
Looking like a battle between Joan Collins and Brid Smith to get last seat.
Thankfully it finally looks like Catherine Byrne from FG finally out on her ear!

02-02-2020 11:31pm

hotmail.com wrote: »

Didn't a Labour TD switch to FF during the last Dail and he lost his seat in Clare. The only FF TD to lose his seat in 2016.

Miles off the mark. Michael McNamara (Ind) only resigned his Labour membership last May. He was ousted as a TD in 2016 because he was (and still is) a mediocre politician.

feargale · 02-02-2020 11:37pm

hotmail.com wrote: »

Didn't a Labour TD switch to FF during the last Dail and he lost his seat in Clare. The only FF TD to lose his seat in 2016.

Voters don't really like turn coats.

I don't know where you got that.
Michael McNamara was defeated last time as an outgoing Labour TD and is standing this time as an independent.
Paddy Hogan entered the Dàil in the 1920s as a Clare Labour TD. Dev effectively neutralised him by making him Ceann Comhairle, a position he held for years ( maybe the record holder for time in the chair, I'm not sure.)
I can think of only two Labour TDs moving to FF in over half a century.
Patrick Norton, son of William Norton elected for Kildare in 1965, moved to FF after a very short time, and I think he was defeated in 1969.
John O'Connell, also first elected in 1965, wasn't one for party discipline and after some years in Labour joined his friend CJH in FF. Turning the coat didn't seem to do him a bit of harm, but he had a huge medical practice in the south-west of Dublin. I once heard one of his local medical colleagues bitterly describe him as a "cut-price doctor." We can safely bet that that soubriquet did him no harm either.

P.S. I believe Moosajee Bhamjee, elected for Labour in Clare in 1992 and, serving just one term, was afterwards approached by the PDs, and I'm told that in his own words he told them to "f*** off."

Asitis2019 · 02-02-2020 11:40pm

gmisk wrote: »

I checked odds from Dublin south Central where I vote.
Looking like a battle between Joan Collins and Brid Smith to get last seat.
Thankfully it finally looks like Catherine Byrne from FG finally out on her ear!

yes, Catherine Byrne will not be returned. I have a feeling that Joan Collins will lose her seat

High hopes for Rebecca Moynihan

Suckit · 02-02-2020 11:42pm

gmisk wrote: »

Going by betting odds he will scrape in.... disappointing.
He is some chancer even running!

He mightn't.
I reckon it might be (in no particular order)

Darragh O'Brien (FF)
Joe O'Brien (Green)
Louise O'Reilly (SF)
Duncan Smith (Lab)

Which leaves Lorraine Clifford Lee (FF), James Reilly (FG), Alan Farrell (FG) and maybe Tony Murphy (Ind) as an outside runner.

I don't think Farrell will get many votes at all. Which may mean Reilly is more likely to get that seat than him. But I wouldn't rule out Clifford-Lee if O'Brien is as much of a shoe in as they reckon.

hotmail.com · 02-02-2020 11:42pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Miles off the mark. Michael McNamara (Ind) only resigned his Labour membership last May. He was ousted as a TD in 2016 because he was (and still is) a mediocre politician.

Colm Keaveny, elected for Labour in Galway East in 2011 and switched to FF. He was the only FF TD to lose out in 2016.

Edgware · 02-02-2020 11:44pm

Asitis2019 wrote: »

yes, Catherine Byrne will not be returned. I have a feeling that Joan Collins will lose her seat

High hopes for Rebecca Moynihan

Joan is a good worker but I reckon Ardagh will win a seat. So I thought Joan would head off Brid Smith but if Byrne is in trouble Joan and Brid will make it
I just can't understand why O Snodaigh would get 1 vote

realdanbreen · 02-02-2020 11:45pm

Joe Hannigan-ind- may well take a seat in Tipp but not sure who will lose out between Alan Kelly and Seamus Healy.

feargale · 02-02-2020 11:45pm

hotmail.com wrote: »

Colm Keaveny, elected for Labour in Galway East in 2011 and switched to FF. He was the only FF TD to lose out in 2016.

Thank you. I stand corrected.

hotmail.com · 02-02-2020 11:45pm

feargale wrote: »

I don't know where you got that.
Michael McNamara was defeated last time as an outgoing Labour TD and is standing this time as an independent.
Paddy Hogan entered the Dàil in the 1920s as a Clare Labour TD. Dev effectively neutralised him by making him Ceann Comhairle, a position he held for years ( maybe the record holder for time in the chair, I'm not sure.)
I can think of only two Labour TDs moving to FF in over half a century.
Patrick Norton, son of William Norton elected for Kildare in 1965, moved to FF after a very short time, and I think he was defeated in 1969.
John O'Connell, also first elected in 1965, wasn't one for party discipline and after some years in Labour joined his friend CJH in FF. Turning the coat didn't seem to do him a bit of harm, but he had a huge medical practice in the south-west of Dublin. I once heard one of his local medical colleagues bitterly describe him as a "cut-price doctor." We can safely bet that that soubriquet did him no harm either.

P.S. I believe Moosajee Bhamjee, elected for Labour in Clare in 1992 and, serving just one term, was afterwards approached by the PDs, and I'm told that in his own words he told them to "f*** off."

Colm Keaveny.

hotmail.com · 02-02-2020 11:47pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Hence you were miles off the mark. Galway East is not Clare.

The attitude?

feargale · 02-02-2020 11:50pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Hence you were miles off the mark. Galway East is not Clare.

Actually Galway East and Clare are contiguous.

hotmail.com · 02-02-2020 11:53pm

None of the existing SF TDs will lose their seats given the polling figures.

gmisk · 02-02-2020 11:57pm

Asitis2019 wrote: »

yes, Catherine Byrne will not be returned. I have a feeling that Joan Collins will lose her seat

High hopes for Rebecca Moynihan

I like Rebecca Moyhihan as well, I have only heard good things from people who have met her hopefully she will do well.
It will likely be tight between brid Smith and Joan Collins I would say for last seat.
Looks like SF will romp home then Ardagh and seemingly the guy from the greens Costello tbh no idea about him, not even sure he lives in the area tbh...

ricero · 02-02-2020 11:57pm

Shane Ross looks to be in trouble

gmisk · 02-02-2020 11:58pm

ricero wrote: »

Shane Ross looks to be in trouble

Whoever gets in I am sure he will appear in the background for a photo op...

gmisk · 03-02-2020 12:00am

Edgware wrote: »

Joan is a good worker but I reckon Ardagh will win a seat. So I thought Joan would head off Brid Smith but if Byrne is in trouble Joan and Brid will make it
I just can't understand why O Snodaigh would get 1 vote

The betting odds seem to say Costello from the greens will get in (I blame the bloody hipsters in kilmainham lol), so that will maybe only leave one more seat likely between Joan Collins and Brid Smith.

SafeSurfer · 03-02-2020 12:04am

hotmail.com wrote: »

None of the existing SF TDs will lose their seats given the polling figures.

If Mark Ward and Eoin O Broin both retain their seats it would be a remarkable political coup.

feargale · 03-02-2020 12:07am

ricero wrote: »

Shane Ross looks to be in trouble

Is there an opinion poll that suggests that?

gmisk · 03-02-2020 12:25am

feargale wrote: »

Is there an opinion poll that suggests that?

Betting odds I saw have him as 4th favourite to get a seat (but only 3 in that area).
His odds also in red meaning they are drifting... I.E not good sign.

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 12:37am

SafeSurfer wrote: »

If Mark Ward and Eoin O Broin both retain their seats it would be a remarkable political coup.

With 24% they should hold both those seats. Their Dublin vote share is higher than the average.

SafeSurfer · 03-02-2020 12:37am

hotmail.com wrote: »

None of the existing SF TDs will lose their seats given the polling figures.

If Mark Ward and Eoin O Broin both retain their seats it would be a remarkable political coup.

loyatemu · 03-02-2020 12:39am

Doyle is definitely in danger in Wicklow, he only just beat Timmins in 2016 when Timmins was with Renua, so even if the FG vote holds up he's at risk from his (once again) party colleague.

other than that I don't know, a lot of people are bitter towards Donnelly for his move to FF, but that doesn't mean Whitmore can take his seat. His vote the last time was largely personal, not due to any great support for the SDs and Whitmore is little known outside of the commuter belt bit of the county.

You would think Wicklow would be a possible gain for the Greens as well, but they were a long way back in 2016. And Valerie Cox is a wildcard.
Harris and Brady are shoe-ins; there'll be at least one FF, though it will be a lot closer between the 2 candidates than last time. After that, who knows.

feargale · 03-02-2020 12:59am

loyatemu wrote: »

You would think Wicklow would be a possible gain for the Greens as well, but they were a long way back in 2016. And Valerie Cox is a wildcard.
Harris and Brady are shoe-ins; there'll be at least one FF, though it will be a lot closer between the 2 candidates than last time. After that, who knows.

You know how RTE will profile a constituency, giving much exposure to the main parties, and finishing off with "and also running are Paddy Murphy independent, Mick McQuaid, independent, Molly McAdoo independent, Mary Magdalen independent, Jim Figgerty independent."
Well tonight's 9 o'clock news gave Valerie Cox independent the full monty, viva voce.
Could I get a job in RTE before I run for election?

What TDs will lose their seat?

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