What TDs will lose their seat?

votecounts

hotmail.com wrote: »

None of the existing SF TDs will lose their seats given the polling figures.

I'll be surprised if Funchion gets re elected in Carlow Kilkenny, too many losses since the locals especially in the carlow section.

charlie14

loyatemu wrote: »

Doyle is definitely in danger in Wicklow, he only just beat Timmins in 2016 when Timmins was with Renua, so even if the FG vote holds up he's at risk from his (once again) party colleague.

other than that I don't know, a lot of people are bitter towards Donnelly for his move to FF, but that doesn't mean Whitmore can take his seat. His vote the last time was largely personal, not due to any great support for the SDs and Whitmore is little known outside of the commuter belt bit of the county.

You would think Wicklow would be a possible gain for the Greens as well, but they were a long way back in 2016. And Valerie Cox is a wildcard.
Harris and Brady are shoe-ins; there'll be at least one FF, though it will be a lot closer between the 2 candidates than last time. After that, who knows.

Bookie have Donnelly to take the 4th seat @2/9. Then Doyle @ 10/11. Whitmore and Matthews of the Greens both @5/4.

Muahahaha

gmisk wrote: »

Betting odds I saw have him as 4th favourite to get a seat (but only 3 in that area).
His odds also in red meaning they are drifting... I.E not good sign.

Id be surprised if Ross lost his seat, he got the Stepaside Garda station reopened and the electorate tends to reward that kind of parish pump politics

feargale wrote: »

You know how RTE will profile a constituency, giving much exposure to the main parties, and finishing off with "and also running are Paddy Murphy independent, Mick McQuaid, independent, Molly McAdoo independent, Mary Magdalen independent, Jim Figgerty independent."
Well tonight's 9 o'clock news gave Valerie Cox independent the full monty, viva voce.
Could I get a job in RTE before I run for election?

I saw that, Id say the other independents in Wicklow are raging that RTE gave one of their former employees campaigning time on the main tv news. Would expect complaints to the Electoral Commission to follow

rossie1977

I expect it's as you were in Roscommon who will return same 3 TDS as in 16.

Eugene Murphy (FF) is probably most at risk though bookies had him 1/7 on. If he is to lose out it's going to be running mate Orla Leyden or Claire Kerrane of Sinn Féin who will sneak last seat. As said it looks unlikely right now if bookies are to be believed.

feargale

Muahahaha wrote: »

I saw that, Id say the other independents in Wicklow are raging that RTE gave one of their former employees campaigning time on the main tv news. Would expect complaints to the Electoral Commission to follow

The only way they can right that now is by giving equal exposure to all the others.
I wouldn't mind if they gave her the Brian Dobson treatment but she got a free run.

SafeSurfer

feargale wrote: »

The only way they can right that now is by giving equal exposure to all the others.
I wouldn't mind if they gave her the Brian Dobson treatment but she got a free run.

The photos of her large Land Rover will put the eco warriors off

loyatemu

feargale wrote: »

The only way they can right that now is by giving equal exposure to all the others.

I look forward to their in depth profile of Charlie Keddy (which might actually be interesting, he's must have stood for the Dail 20 times. He was on the ballot in all 4 bye-elections in November.).

FrancieBrady

Muahahaha wrote: »

Id be surprised if Ross lost his seat, he got the Stepaside Garda station reopened and the electorate tends to reward that kind of parish pump politics



I saw that, Id say the other independents in Wicklow are raging that RTE gave one of their former employees campaigning time on the main tv news. Would expect complaints to the Electoral Commission to follow

Didn't she sue RTE?

prunudo

loyatemu wrote: »

I look forward to their in depth profile of Charlie Keddy (which might actually be interesting, he's must have stood for the Dail 20 times. He was on the ballot in all 4 bye-elections in November.).

Anti water charges before it became fashionable again.

Maybe Rte felt guilty about the way they treated her so decided to give Valerie Cox some exposure.

For Forks Sake

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Didn't she sue RTE?

She did: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/rt%C3%A9-ordered-to-pay-50-000-to-former-employee-valerie-cox-1.3435712

Matter for another day is why RTE had someone contracted to read out a few snippets of yesterdays news from the papers in the first place

Mortelaro

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Didn't she sue RTE?

Yup
I dont expect her to win a seat but she will do well
I often bump into her locally
She will probably have sent a text to the rte reporter arranging that 9 news piece tbh
Jennifer Whitmore of the Soc Dems is doing a very good canvas and is well liked in north wicklow
Shes greystones based but has the support of and was out canvassing with an Arklow based council poll topper in the south of the county
I'd say she will mop up those who dont want to vote for Stephen Donnelly since he moved to FF
I also hear many FF members are refusing to canvass for Donnelly and are out with Casey FF instead

Btw it's looking likely the Mythen of Sinn Féin will take a seat in wexford either kehoe FG or malcolm Byrne FF who won the by election there losing out

For Forks Sake

I'm in Laois-Offaly (5 seater, was two separate three-seaters in 2016) so there's going to be a loss for someone, I'm reckoning it will be Carol Nolan (elected SF last time but was expelled for opposing the repeal of the 8th)

I'd say it'll finish up

Cowen + Fleming (FF)
Flanagan (FG)
Stanley (SF)
with a battle for the final seat between Corcoran-Kennedy (FG) and Ormond (FF).

is_that_so

If polls are anywhere close to what we see for FG they will be under huge pressure in marginals and the likes of Rock and Kehoe would be expected to be casualties. They would also be under pressure on second seats, Louth and possibly everyone's "favourite minister" Regina in Meath East, at risk among others.

scrumqueen

TheValeyard wrote: »

And Mary Mitchell O Connor! She's some dose!

Oh how I wish this would happen but it wont, she's a minister, albeit it totally useless imo, but has her gob in every photo op in the parish and attends everything.

ricero wrote: »

If Joan Burton doesn't lose her seat then I give up having any faith in the people of Dublin west

I was astonished they didn't dump her last time out especially given the cuts she stood over while in Government. Hopefully this time around fingers crossed!

Richard Hillman wrote: »

I think she could be a decent sneaky bet. FG are running 3 candidates in the Borough. I think that people who will vote for the other 2 FGs would be voting purposely because they dislike her.

Obviously she'll get good preference votes from them but I don't think it will be as big a bump as people may think

FG pad out the ticket to keep others out unfortunately. Barry Ward perennial bench warmer rolled out at every GE only to never make the cut.

I think (wish/hope!)

Catherine Zappone
Shane Ross
Stephen Donnelly
Regina Doherty
Joan Burton

Dyr

I saw yer wan Catherine Noone driving around there last week, the reason I knew it was her was that she has a full body wrap on her car with her name and face. A decision she deeply regrets judging by her expression and the beeps she was getting from other motorists.

Whereisgalway

Catherine Connolly

This typifies the arrogance of FG and in particular this idiot

https://www.thejournal.ie/psc-regina-doherty-4824865-Sep2019/

Edgware

SafeSurfer wrote: »

If Mark Ward and Eoin O Broin both retain their seats it would be a remarkable political coup.

They could do it with good vote management like they did with council elections in the North but I just feel that voters wont be as easily managed in the South

Edgware

hotmail.com wrote: »

None of the existing SF TDs will lose their seats given the polling figures.

Would those polling figures give them 2 in Louth?
They should hold Kerry but the East Cork man Buckley might have a struggle.

Edgware

scrumqueen wrote: »

Oh how I wish this would happen but it wont, she's a minister, albeit it totally useless imo, but has her gob in every photo op in the parish and attends everything.



I was astonished they didn't dump her last time out especially given the cuts she stood over while in Government. Hopefully this time around fingers crossed!



FG pad out the ticket to keep others out unfortunately. Barry Ward perennial bench warmer rolled out at every GE only to never make the cut.

I think (wish/hope!)

Catherine Zappone
Shane Ross
Stephen Donnelly
Regina Doherty
Joan Burton

Can we afford to lose such talent?

charlie14

Whereisgalway wrote: »

Catherine Connolly

From that TG4 poll Sean Kyne may be in more trouble than Connolly.


FG are on 23% with Kyne just 1% ahead of Connolly.
When you look at the other candidates lower down that poll Connolly will be much more transfer friendly than Kyne.
Then again, it is a TG4 poll and they have been very inaccurate in the past.

Captain Flaps

gmisk wrote: »

Looks like SF will romp home then Ardagh and seemingly the guy from the greens Costello tbh no idea about him, not even sure he lives in the area tbh...

Just chipping in to say that I know plenty of people who have nothing but great things to say about Patrick Costello as a councillor, I knew him through scouting when I was younger and he's a very motivated and dependable guy, I think he'd do a great job. Certainly a cut above the likes of Ardagh.

Dodge

Edgware wrote: »

Can we afford to lose such talent?

LOL

At least two of those ministers are in over their head

blackwhite

Drifter50 wrote: »

Mmmm, I think Ross will go and be replaced by Neale Richmond. Madigan is damaged by her involvement with Maria Bailey and a lot of voters in this constituency would be SME involved and won`t like that

Looking like Green Party 1, Shay Brennan should squeak in for FF and Neale Richmond for FG
Shane Ross and Josepha Madigan to go

Catherine Martin is the only safe one

I think Madigan might get in ahead of Richmond - even though he comes across as a lot more capable than her. Madigan plays the nimby card very well up around Mount Merrion.

Would agree on Brennan and Martin for the other 2 seats - but I think Brennan will only just barely pip Ross.
Ross will poll better than expected. He's been fairly overt in directing sports grants to a lot of local clubs, and could well get some votes out of a sense of obligation

Muahahaha wrote: »

Id be surprised if Ross lost his seat, he got the Stepaside Garda station reopened and the electorate tends to reward that kind of parish pump politics

It's not re-opened yet - and for all of the noise about it last time out Stepaside/Kilternan is only a small part of the constituency.

is_that_so

Edgware wrote: »

Would those polling figures give them 2 in Louth?

A lot more probable but they still need to manage it properly.

feargale

loyatemu wrote: »

I look forward to their in depth profile of Charlie Keddy (which might actually be interesting, he's must have stood for the Dail 20 times. He was on the ballot in all 4 bye-elections in November.).

When it comes to how the election is run we must be fair to all candidates, including those we disagree with. Anybody can be fair to those they agree with.

zell12

Ivan Yates says Eoghan Murphy may lose his seat in DBS
https://www.thesun.ie/news/5059692/fine-gael-fear-eoghan-murphy-kate-oconnell-lose-seats/

Yurt2

zell12 wrote: »

Ivan Yates says Eoghan Murphy may lose his seat in DBS
https://www.thesun.ie/news/5059692/fine-gael-fear-eoghan-murphy-kate-oconnell-lose-seats/

If Eoghan Murphy loses his seat I'm pulling a sicker from work and going on a week long bender.

The_Kew_Tour

zell12 wrote: »

Ivan Yates says Eoghan Murphy may lose his seat in DBS
https://www.thesun.ie/news/5059692/fine-gael-fear-eoghan-murphy-kate-oconnell-lose-seats/

With a bit of luck he will.

Edgware

Yurt! wrote: »

If Eoghan Murphy loses his seat I'm pulling a sicker from work and going on a week long bender.

No change so from your reguiar Monday activity