What TDs will lose their seat?

Yurt2

Edgware wrote: »

No change so from your reguiar Monday activity

You're slurring your words

gmisk

Captain Flaps wrote: »

Just chipping in to say that I know plenty of people who have nothing but great things to say about Patrick Costello as a councillor, I knew him through scouting when I was younger and he's a very motivated and dependable guy, I think he'd do a great job. Certainly a cut above the likes of Ardagh.

Thanks for that.
Where does he live? I don't think he was a councillor in Dublin south Central?
Tbh my only experience with him is one of his campaigners knocking on the door...with a huge dog not on a leash which tried to get into the house...so not a great first impression.
No clue about Ardagh.

gmisk

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

With a bit of luck he will.

I doubt Kate o Donnell would lose out...but she has a chain of pharmacies and a massive amount of property to fall back on so hard to feel too sorry for her..

Captain Flaps

gmisk wrote: »

Thanks for that.
Where does he live? I don't think he was a councillor in Dublin south Central?
Tbh my only experience with him is one of his campaigners knocking on the door...with a huge dog not on a leash which tried to get into the house...so not a great first impression.
No clue about Ardagh.

Think he's in Kimmage/Walkinstown now, he was a councillor in Dublin Bay South previously but last I heard he was working as a social worker in Drimnagh I think.

Fair enough about the dog, as someone with a very nervous pair of rescues having big dogs off leash is one of my pet peeves too, but I wouldn't be making election decisions based solely on that.

Ardagh is an FFer who went after her father's old seat, didn't get it, and got a senatorship instead (presumably as part of the FF/FG deal but obviously that's pure speculation and could be unfair).

Anyway didn't mean to derail the thread, just saw a mention and thought I'd give him a quick plug as he's a decent skin.

Where I live, Dub South West, I'd not be too upset to see Zappone gone and looks like it will happen. I went banging on doors with her during the marriage ref and I have a lot of respect for the work she did on that, but she made a right mess of the scouting Ireland stuff and made things very difficult for leaders. I also wrote to her to implore her not to vote to continue funding greyhound racing and I didn't get the courtesy of even a template reply, so as far as I'm concerned she's had her chance to represent me. Can't see her getting in, I'd say the safe seats are Hayes (FG), Hayes (FF), O'Donovan (FF) and then it's a toss up between the rest. Carley Bailey and the Green candidate will be getting my first preferences, and Mick Duff's work on Fur Farming, circuses and local pounds mean he'll probably get a high enough slot unless there's more to him that would put me off.

SafeSurfer

Could Peadar Tobin be in trouble?

He is no doubt a good local TD but the pro life Sinn Fein vote seems like a small pond to be fishing in.

For Forks Sake

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Could Peadar Tobin be in trouble?

He is no doubt a good local TD but the pro life Sinn Fein vote seems like a small pond to be fishing in.

Hard one to call, lot of his vote seems to be personal (his sister got elected to the council in the Navan area running under Aontu, but the candidates in the rest of the county performed abysmally), plus SF are targeting his seat.

Edgware

Yurt! wrote: »

You're slurring your words

I know. It's not easy to get through the first part of the week without a few shots of vodka.
Air Traffic Control takes its toll

Edgware

gmisk wrote: »

I doubt Kate o Donnell would lose out...but she has a chain of pharmacies and a massive amount of property to fall back on so hard to feel too sorry for her..

She might win it at the expense of Kate O Connell

kerosene

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Hard one to call, lot of his vote seems to be personal (his sister got elected to the council in the Navan area running under Aontu, but the candidates in the rest of the county performed abysmally), plus SF are targeting his seat.

Paddy Power now have Shane Cassells (ff) favourite to win a seat, Peadar Toibin 2nd fav, with the sf candidate taking the last seat.

Fine Gael are running 3 candidates, Damien English, the sitting rd, a strong possibility of losing his seat. A few weeks ago this would have been a very unlikely scenario.

scrumqueen

hotmail.com wrote: »

None of the existing SF TDs will lose their seats given the polling figures.

Mark Ward might, unfortunate given that he has taken F.Fitzgeralds seat which is just so so sweet. Really hope he doesn't though.

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

With a bit of luck he will.

I think he's more disliked than Harris and originally I thought 'deffo going to get the chop' but then I saw his leafy D4 constituency and thought, he's probably fine

kerosene

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Hard one to call, lot of his vote seems to be personal (his sister got elected to the council in the Navan area running under Aontu, but the candidates in the rest of the county performed abysmally), plus SF are targeting his seat.

According to paddy power, Damien English (fg) is most likely to lose a seat. They have Shane Cassells(ff) peadar Toibin and Guirke (sf) as the favs to win seats.

Would have been very unlikely a few weeks ago.

For Forks Sake

Edgware wrote: »

She might win it at the expense of Kate O Connell

IAMAMORON

Catherine Murphy ?

Muahahaha

Yurt! wrote: »

If Eoghan Murphy loses his seat I'm pulling a sicker from work and going on a week long bender.

It could well happen, that constituency is always a group of death. Michael McDowell lost his seat there, won it back and then lost it again.

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Catherine Murphy ?

Not a hope, she will probably top the poll. One of the few candidates who is shouting up for Kildare commuters of which there are many.

RandomViewer

zell12 wrote: »

Ivan Yates says Eoghan Murphy may lose his seat in DBS
https://www.thesun.ie/news/5059692/fine-gael-fear-eoghan-murphy-kate-oconnell-lose-seats/

Yates panicking the masons that the golden child might flounder, theyll hold back on their green protest vote.

Dyr

RandomViewer wrote: »

Yates panicking the masons that the golden child might flounder, theyll hold back on their green protest vote.

Wahtever about Andrews can't see Kevin Humphreys getting in

franglan

Is Pascal at any risk do people think? Super competitive constituency, Gary Gannon pushing strong I héar. Fitzpatrick and obviously the big presence of Mary Lou too? Thought?

piplip87

franglan wrote: »

Is Pascal at any risk do people think? Super competitive constituency, Gary Gannon pushing strong I héar. Fitzpatrick and obviously the big presence of Mary Lou too? Thought?

I do t think so. It has to be said a massive mistake by SF not running somebody alongside MLD here.

cameramonkey

piplip87 wrote: »

I do t think so. It has to be said a massive mistake by SF not running somebody alongside MLD here.

They were presumed to be on about 13% nation wide before the election started. So risking their party leader was not an option.

Muahahaha

The body count so far-

Regina Doherty (FG)
Mary Mitchell O Connor (FG)
Tom Neville (FG)
Shane Cassels (FF)
Joan Burton (Labour)
Ruth Coppinger (PBP)
Shane Ross (Ind)

FrancieBrady

Muahahaha wrote: »

The body count so far-

Regina Doherty (FG)
Mary Mitchell O Connor (FG)
Tom Neville (FG)
Shane Cassels (FF)
Joan Burton (Labour)
Ruth Coppinger (PBP)
Shane Ross (Ind)

Anyone got a list of ones to watch?

charlie14

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anyone got a list of ones to watch?

Lisa Chambers FF
Sean Kyne FG
Thomas Pringle Ind. or Pat the Cope Gallagher FF

Muahahaha

Think Lisa Chambers and Sean Kyne will be the last of the high profile casualties. Sean Kyne was FG Chief Whip which always seems to be a poisoned chalice of a job because you've to be in Leinster House every day it sits while your electoral opponents are being seen at funerals back at home.

charlie14

Muahahaha wrote: »

Think Lisa Chambers and Sean Kyne will be the last of the high profile casualties. Sean Kyne was FG Chief Whip which always seems to be a poisoned chalice of a job because you've to be in Leinster House every day it sits while your electoral opponents are being seen at funerals back at home.

He has a bit of a reputation on issues locally of hunting with the hounds and running with the hares.

Dank Janniels

charlie14 wrote: »

Lisa Chambers FF
Sean Kyne FG
Thomas Pringle Ind. or Pat the Cope Gallagher FF

Eugene Murphy in Ros/Galway, going to lose out to Clare Kerrane SF

Muahahaha

Anyone hear how Kate o'Connell is doing, think she is in a fight for the last seat?

solidasarock

Is Zappone still hanging on?

Ken.

Muahahaha wrote: »

Anyone hear how Kate o'Connell is doing, think she is in a fight for the last seat?

If she doesn't get 1000 transfers from the last eliminated person. With the person ahead of her getting 0 she will be the next eliminated.

Ken.

solidasarock wrote: »

Is Zappone still hanging on?

She's in 6th place in a 5 seater. She is about 1400 behind the guy ahead of her and only between 300 and 400 ahead of the 2 behind her.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Nosnon wrote: »

She's in 6th place in a 5 seater. She is about 1400 behind the guy ahead of her and only between 300 and 400 ahead of the 2 behind her.

I can't see her swinging things on transfers.

The last elimination was the second Fine Gael candidate whose votes will go and elect the top Fine Gael candidate.

The next eleimation will be the third Fianna Fail candidate who will push the Fianna Fail candidate (currently 5th) ahead of her.

PBF/Solidarity will most likely go to PBF/solidarity.