What will the numbers be after next election

Panch18

Panch18 wrote: »

In what way now?

Gerry Adams being a regular attendee at the soviet communist party conventions in the 1980’s. Extremely close ties to Castro in Cuba. SF associates training FARC in Columbia. Didn’t SF support the communist government that has turned The basket case that is Venezuela as well

If people think that SF have seen the light of their past and are somehow transformed then they are sadly mistaken

In that they may win between 30-35 seats in a system that requires 80 to form a government.
In that, going on the exit poll of last night, 78% of the electorate did not vote SF.
In that the rest of left parties and all independents together won't form a government, or on the incredible off chance they did, it wouldn't last a wet week.

I believe BR has nailed the reasoning behind the over reaction. I also agree the solution to these dastardly reds under the bed is actually a spell in power. However, I am open minded to being pleasantly surprised. SF do seem to have a number of seemingly able people like Doherty, O Broinn, Cullinane, Kenny, O Reilly.

That's not to say I approve of their history, or agree with all of their policies, the reality is SF have increased their vote and will improve on their seat numbers from the last Dail.

That's still a long shout from Government, never mind totalitarianism.

I await references to 1933.

Zetor19

I’d say Glanbia shortened a few lads lives no doubt about that. As for Goodman you be doing well to find a a bigger scumbag.

Bass Reeves

Panch18 wrote: »

As an extremely well off person yourself I think you are underestimating the result

The problem is that people seem to think that SF is only soft left. The reality of SF is going to come back and bite a lot of people in the ass.

Weren’t the soviet communist party and Castro the biggest idols of the Last SF leader

Panch18 wrote: »

In what way now?

Gerry Adams being a regular attendee at the soviet communist party conventions in the 1980’s. Extremely close ties to Castro in Cuba. SF associates training FARC in Columbia. Didn’t SF support the communist government that has turned The basket case that is Venezuela as well

If people think that SF have seen the light of their past and are somehow transformed then they are sadly mistaken

In 1980's SF were more about sourcing guns than about getting votes. The realities of power are totally different to being in opposition. FF and FG along with there gene pool TD's will still have the bones of 90-100 TD's IMO. Ideally FF or FG would love the other party to form a government with SF. It would leave the other party as the bastion of the center right, FF are the more likely to grasp the nettle of power. It would make interesting bedfellows in late 2021 as the Treaty centeary celebrations and state foundations come into play.

But the problem for the left is it fracture when in power. The hard left is unwilling that the vast majority off the population believe that work and endeavor must be rewarded to some extent. Slight left governments like Blairs in England can stay in power but Corbyn left agenda is unpalatable. It the same in Ireland the left views of Boyd Barret and Paul Murphy sre the biggest danger to left politics.

kk.man

Three reasons why both FF + FG will loose out in this election ;
Murphy
Harris
Creed

FF are culpable by supporting the Government. They simply didn't listen. Most Government parties of the 80s got rid of Ministers who underperformed. Since the 00s that has changed and the government parties paid the price.

memorystick

Panch18 wrote: »

Did glanbia ever take a 21 year old fella out to a secluded farmyard and literally beat him to death and break every bone in his body?

Name the politician that did that?

_Brian

Watching Michael Martin there on RTE.

Can see he’s absolutely changed from his position of not going into government with FG or SF

No surprise

Panch18

Bass Reeves wrote: »

In 1980's SF were more about sourcing guns than about getting votes. The realities of power are totally different to being in opposition. FF and FG along with there gene pool TD's will still have the bones of 90-100 TD's IMO. Ideally FF or FG would love the other party to form a government with SF. It would leave the other party as the bastion of the center right, FF are the more likely to grasp the nettle of power. It would make interesting bedfellows in late 2021 as the Treaty centeary celebrations and state foundations come into play.

But the problem for the left is it fracture when in power. The hard left is unwilling that the vast majority off the population believe that work and endeavor must be rewarded to some extent. Slight left governments like Blairs in England can stay in power but Corbyn left agenda is unpalatable. It the same in Ireland the left views of Boyd Barret and Paul Murphy sre the biggest danger to left politics.

Well SF are far more Corbin than Blair that’s for sure, worse I would say given their association with criminals etc

Panch18

memorystick wrote: »

Name the politician that did that?

Ask your local SF td and I’m sure he’d be able to tell you who carried out that horrific murder.

ABlur

_Brian wrote: »

Watching Michael Martin there on RTE.

Can see he’s absolutely changed from his position of not going into government with FG or SF

No surprise

Expect 'the National Interest' to feature over the next few days as they change positions.

Panch18

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In that they may win between 30-35 seats in a system that requires 80 to form a government.
In that, going on the exit poll of last night, 78% of the electorate did not vote SF.
In that the rest of left parties and all independents together won't form a government, or on the incredible off chance they did, it wouldn't last a wet week.

I believe BR has nailed the reasoning behind the over reaction. I also agree the solution to these dastardly reds under the bed is actually a spell in power. However, I am open minded to being pleasantly surprised. SF do seem to have a number of seemingly able people like Doherty, O Broinn, Cullinane, Kenny, O Reilly.

That's not to say I approve of their history, or agree with all of their policies, the reality is SF have increased their vote and will improve on their seat numbers from the last Dail.

That's still a long shout from Government, never mind totalitarianism.

I await references to 1933.

They will only have 35 seats approx because they didn’t run enough candidates.

To be poll toppers in so many constituencies, places where in the past they wouldn’t have got a few hundred votes is mind boggling

And my comment on the country going communist is because in this election more people will have voted against FF and FG then for them. This is a massive swing to the left, and a hard left. Not a tony Blair left

awaywithyou

Panch18 wrote: »

They will only have 35 seats approx because they didn’t run enough candidates.

To be poll toppers in so many constituencies, places where in the past they wouldn’t have got a few hundred votes is mind boggling

And my comment on the country going communist is because in this election more people will have voted against FF and FG then for them. This is a massive swing to the left, and a hard left. Not a tony Blair left

In 5 yrs time SinnFein will b decimated.... when they won’t deliver anywhere near what people expect them to deliver

Panch18

awaywithyou wrote: »

In 5 yrs time SinnFein will b decimated.... when they won’t deliver anywhere near what people expect them to deliver

And the damage along the way??

patsy_mccabe

8 seats filled so far and 7 are to Sinn Fein.

White Clover

Just heard Willie O Dea on the television. Fianna Fail will be in bed with the IRA within a week. Sick.

whelan2

White Clover wrote: »

Just heard Willie O Dea on the television. Fianna Fail will be in bed with the IRA within a week. Sick.

Did they not say before the election that they wouldnt go in with sinn fein?

RandomViewer

Panch18 wrote: »

Well SF are far more Corbin than Blair that’s for sure, worse I would say given their association with criminals etc

FG would be very cosy with certain well known Dublin faces, Regency hotel springs to mind

endainoz

The freak outs from the anti Sinn Fein brigade has been absolutely hilarious. It's been a compelling day of TV that's for sure.

RandomViewer

White Clover wrote: »

Just heard Willie O Dea on the television. Fianna Fail will be in bed with the IRA within a week. Sick.

FF armed the IRA , they've always been connected, FG quite happy to play with DUP

Bullocks

whelan2 wrote: »

Did they not say before the election that they wouldnt go in with sinn fein?

Yeah, but that was before the election!

White Clover

whelan2 wrote: »

Did they not say before the election that they wouldnt go in with sinn fein?

They did, but they'd do anything for power, even going into coalition with the IRA political wing.

White Clover

endainoz wrote: »

The freak outs from the anti Sinn Fein brigade has been absolutely hilarious. It's been a compelling day of TV that's for sure.

Let's be honest here, who in SF/IRA, apart from Eoin O Broin, has the intelligence to run a government department?

awaywithyou

Panch18 wrote: »

And the damage along the way??

what damage??? SinnFein will learn very quickly who runs this country... most of there ideas are not in the real world.... they will be decimated like Labour in 2016 at the next election..... if they have any hope they should try and form a coalition that dsoesnt include FF especially.... wont happen tho.... fair going for ur man o laoghaire who is just 30yrs old to top the poll in cork with micheal martin and Coveney there as well..

just shows how old some of us are getting.. no way would i ever give SF a vote considering there history... especially the murder of the garda in Adare.... imagine how his family and indeed how the older members of the garda siochana are feeling tonight... obviously those under 30 will have to google to find out about SF's history.... the world has moved on i know but jaysus electing thugs in suits to run a country.... FF and FG must be very detached from reality.... for them to be overtaken by SF

whelan2

How is minister Creed doing?

awaywithyou

whelan2 wrote: »

Did they not say before the election that they wouldnt go in with sinn fein?

they are politicians... straight talking is alien to them

awaywithyou

whelan2 wrote: »

How is minister Creed doing?

he'll be elected.... he got the macroom bypass to become a reality... all politics is local and all that

endainoz

White Clover wrote: »

Let's be honest here, who in SF/IRA, apart from Eoin O Broin, has the intelligence to run a government department?

Just SF, good man. The SF/IRA rhetoric came from the Brittish media in the Thatchers era.

Zetor19

What’s the ira stance on agriculture? Do we now start robbing cattle or what ......

White Clover

endainoz wrote: »

Just SF, good man. The SF/IRA rhetoric came from the Brittish media in the Thatchers era.

Any chance of answering the question instead of doing a Gerry or Mary Lou on it?

dmakc

Assuming as the current scenario depicts, they'd act as junior to FF, we can consider ourselves lucky that it's a try-before-you-buy basis with SF. A majority would have been concerning to say the least. If anything they might go down with FF next time round with FG there to step back in. FF/FG coalition would almost certainly guarantee a SF majority next time

bogman_bass

White Clover wrote: »

Let's be honest here, who in SF/IRA, apart from Eoin O Broin, has the intelligence to run a government department?

Matt Carty
Mary Lou
Pearce Dougherty are all capable operators.
After that the standard drops fairy quickly