What will the numbers be after next election

Grueller

White Clover wrote: »

Let's be honest here, who in SF/IRA, apart from Eoin O Broin, has the intelligence to run a government department?

Eoghan Murphy, Simple Simon Harris, Michael Creed, Maria Bailey, Alan Farrell, Josepha Madigan, Andrew Doyle, Michael D'arcy all have shown necessary intelligence to run a government in the last administration have they?

bogman_bass

Panch18 wrote: »

The day Ireland becomes a communist country

Ah punch that level of Hyperbole doesn’t become you and I say that as somebodybthat wouldn’t even give SF a preference

patsy_mccabe

" I think Sinn Féin is still an undemocratic, marxist movement masquerading as a conventional political party. Most of its members are probably unaware of its true nature. "

" Why did Sinn Féin recently spend a large sum sending a delegation to the inauguration of the undemocratic marxist, Nicolas Maduro, as president of Venezuela? "

- Michael McDowell

https://www.michaelmcdowell.ie/sinn-f%C3%A9in-is-an-undemocratic-movement.html

memorystick

Grueller wrote: »

Eoghan Murphy, Simple Simon Harris, Michael Creed, Maria Bailey, Alan Farrell, Josepha Madigan, Andrew Doyle, Michael D'arcy all have shown necessary intelligence to run a government in the last administration have they?

Creed has to be the worst ever. A SF minister will take on beef/agri cartels and wânker bankers. That can only be a good thing.

Bullocks

memorystick wrote: »

Creed has to be the worst ever. A SF minister will take on beef/agri cartels and wânker bankers. That can only be a good thing.

It'll be interesting to see how SF will handle beef cartels and get us more per kg for beef . I hope they do but won't hold my breath on them being any better after they get a tour around the dep of ag

awaywithyou

Grueller wrote: »

Eoghan Murphy, Simple Simon Harris, Michael Creed, Maria Bailey, Alan Farrell, Josepha Madigan, Andrew Doyle, Michael D'arcy all have shown necessary intelligence to run a government in the last administration have they?

just reading that list... tis no wonder people want change....

Buford T. Justice XIX

Zetor19 wrote: »

Larry Goodman and Glanbia etc are way bigger scumbags than SF.

Zetor19 wrote: »

I’d say Glanbia shortened a few lads lives no doubt about that. As for Goodman you be doing well to find a a bigger scumbag.

Zetor19 wrote: »

What’s the ira stance on agriculture? Do we now start robbing cattle or what ......

Mod note: I don't think you're contributing anything to the discussion here. We require a basic level of civility for posting here and you're far short of that level.

Don't post in this thread again.

Buford T. Justice

alps

awaywithyou wrote: »

what damage??? SinnFein will learn very quickly who runs this country... most of there ideas are not in the real world.... they will be decimated like Labour in 2016 at the next election..... if they have any hope they should try and form a coalition that dsoesnt include FF especially.... wont happen tho.... fair going for ur man o laoghaire who is just 30yrs old to top the poll in cork with micheal martin and Coveney there as well..

just shows how old some of us are getting.. no way would i ever give SF a vote considering there history... especially the murder of the garda in Adare.... imagine how his family and indeed how the older members of the garda siochana are feeling tonight... obviously those under 30 will have to google to find out about SF's history.... the world has moved on i know but jaysus electing thugs in suits to run a country.... FF and FG must be very detached from reality.... for them to be overtaken by SF

Daughters giving out here at dinner that the ATMs are going to charge money for a withdrawal. The conversation went back to the 80's, when the banks took in lodgements on a Monday, and had to send the cash away from the branch on Tuesday, only to order it back for Thursday to pay out wage cheques on Friday.

Some of you here will remember the Securicor van pulling up outside on the main street, flanked by 5 army jeeps and 2 squad cars, while traffic was stopped and army lined both sides of the street.

Our girls were aghast at the story and then asked the innocent question..

Who were they guarding the money against?

#differentworld

Reggie.

kk.man wrote: »

Three reasons why both FF + FG will loose out in this election ;
Murphy
Harris
Creed

FF are culpable by supporting the Government. They simply didn't listen. Most Government parties of the 80s got rid of Ministers who underperformed. Since the 00s that has changed and the government parties paid the price.

Creed reelected

_Brian

Well, they managed to finally do one count in Cavan and now a lie in until 10 in the morning when other centres are back in at 9 🙄

Bass Reeves

Bass Reeves wrote: »

For a bit of crack and to see how good our pundits are I have started this thread so that lads can hazzard an opinion on party numbers after next election so here goes. This is my guess at the moment but will update it after I see final exit poll.

FF45-48.....46 seats
FG 30-37....35 seats
SF 35-40.....36 seats
Greens 10-14....12 seats but steam going out of there campaign
Lab 5 seats but improving
Social democrats 3 seats
Solidarity 5 seats but may benefit hugely from SF lack of candidates
Aontu 3 seats against benefit from SF lack of candidates
Independent's 15 seats may not reach this with a numbers of high profile independent's gone such as Claire Daly and Mick Wallace to Europe, and other that were in government with FG not standing or tainted by there presence

Bass Reeves wrote: »

As I said I would update after exit poll and here is the exit poll

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0208/1114069-exit-poll-main/

Ivan yates predictions on News talk are completely wrong he gave the seats as follows
FF 60
FG 32
SF 25
Gr 10
Lab 7
Soc Dem 2
Solid/PBP 5
Aontu 1
Ind 18

First a few reasons for my numbers. While FF and Fg have too many candidates SF has too few. It is worth noting for the first time ever the left vote will be equal to the center and right vote with independents holding the balance. I am assuming the left will transfer fairly strongly within the left. I saw figures as well for a Dublin exit poll and that showed FF at 14%, FG and SF at the same as there national figures. This means that even in Dublin four and five seat constituencies FF will not have a quota. This is not to mean that they will not win seats there but they will not take a seat in every constituency. If that is replicated across other large urban centers it will mean that FF will struggle there too. On the other hand that should mean in rural Ireland FF should be at over 30%. However FF has a history of having poll toppers and this would mean that they could struggle to convert this into seats. However they tend to out preform exit polls. As well they should receive more preferences than FG from the left. FG however are better at vote management and there candidates work better together. Younger voters are more likely to engage with pollster and older voters less likely that may indicate that SF may be higher than expect in the exit poll and FF lower.

I looked at the exit poll and I split it into three sections FFFG vote, the left vote and independents. I gave FF/FG 80-90 seats but settle on 84, I gave independents 12-16 and settled on 12 and the left 55-65 and settle on 64 seats so I split as follows.

FF 41
FG 43
SF 32
GR 14
Lab 6
Soc Dem 4
Aontu 2
Sol/PBP 6
Independent 12


FF will have one advantage going into Government formation talks it will have more independents of its gene poll to look for support and the Greens, Lab and Soc Democrats would find it easier to support then. It would require Confidence and supply from FG. If FF dump Micheal Martin they could do a volte face and with SF and the Greens or maybe Lab and Soc Democrats have a majority.

I should have stuck with my original analysis. It looks like it is fairly near the way it will fall. Now the reason for that is the final vote percentages is st near where that analysis was made as opposed to the final exit poll which over estimated FG support and underestimated SF support. I was right that SolPBP are the SF surplus. However I see Ruth Copingner failed to get elected. As well I see Stephen Donnelly backed the wrong horse in joing FF as the Soc Dem's got a seat in Wicklow. Micheal Fitzmaurice must be delighted that Boxer Moran held onto the ministerial Jon. It looks like no independent minster will be re-elected to the new Fail. Denis Naughton is another winner after losing his ministerial brief but it may have saved his bacon

KaneToad

Grueller wrote: »

Eoghan Murphy, Simple Simon Harris, Michael Creed, Maria Bailey, Alan Farrell, Josepha Madigan, Andrew Doyle, Michael D'arcy all have shown necessary intelligence to run a government in the last administration have they?

Not sure that all of the above ran a govt dept...

Panch18

Panch18 wrote: »

They will only have 35 seats approx because they didn’t run enough candidates.

To be poll toppers in so many constituencies, places where in the past they wouldn’t have got a few hundred votes is mind boggling

And my comment on the country going communist is because in this election more people will have voted against FF and FG then for them. This is a massive swing to the left, and a hard left. Not a tony Blair left

If SF are smart they will avoid Govt and run more candidates in a few months time.

The country is still not "going communist".

Most people, including most farmers, are struggling. Childcare, cost of mortgages, health issues and a metric fcuk ton of other "issues" are on peoples back. People are fed up of tweedle dee and tweedle dums twaddle. Double speak nonsense from FG & FF day in day out. People value their vote, and on Saturday they expressed their frustrations.

If you cannot see that, you're moving perhaps in some pretty cosseted circles.

bogman_bass

memorystick wrote: »

Creed has to be the worst ever. A SF minister will take on beef/agri cartels and wânker bankers. That can only be a good thing.

Correction: they SAY they’ll take them on. Let’s see if they can actually walk the walk

Markcheese

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If SF are smart they will avoid Govt and run more candidates in a few months time.

The country is still not "going communist".

Most people, including most farmers, are struggling. Childcare, cost of mortgages, health issues and a metric fcuk ton of other "issues" are on peoples back. People are fed up of tweedle dee and tweedle dums twaddle. Double speak nonsense from FG & FF day in day out. People value their vote, and on Saturday they expressed their frustrations.

If you cannot see that, you're moving perhaps in some pretty cosseted circles.

I think you're not far from the truth there ... It'll prob take a month or 2 to form a government ,and either sinn Fein are involved till they they can bring it down from the inside ,or they're outside waiting for it all to crack ...if they get in solo though there's 2 options ,either a load of disappointed voters ,or a depression that'll make ff look like saints ..

bogman_bass

_Brian wrote: »

Well, they managed to finally do one count in Cavan and now a lie in until 10 in the morning when other centres are back in at 9 🙄

We’de Done and dusted in Meath west

bogman_bass

_Brian wrote: »

Well, they managed to finally do one count in Cavan and now a lie in until 10 in the morning when other centres are back in at 9 🙄

We’re done and dusted in Meath west

awaywithyou

bogman_bass wrote: »

We’re done and dusted in Meath west

What part of it are u from? Tis a part of the country I used to b very familiar with.... that’s a few yrs ago now....

RandomViewer

awaywithyou wrote: »

just reading that list... tis no wonder people want change....

They left out aMary Mitchell O Conner , I suspect door handles are nearly beyond her comprehension

patsy_mccabe

Just looked through the candidates that The Nationalist Party ran. 10 in total and not one got more than 1,000 first preference votes. All finished down near the bottom. Why bother?

Grueller

KaneToad wrote: »

Not sure that all of the above ran a govt dept...

2 points
1. Not all Sinn Fein TDs would have to either.
2. Eoghan Murphy performed poorly in housing as Did Harris in health and Creed in agriculture.
D'arcy presided over insurance at a time when the leisure industry could not get insured in this country. Andrew Doyle was completely inept in his European campaign while Madigan and Bailey are, well we all know what they are.

_Brian

For a number of elections people have been saying in polls they will vote SF as a protest to the two main candidates, this has never followed
Through and indeed in the last local elections SF lost ground.

This time round though the public seem to have followed through big time on their protest vote. I really thought it was just talk as usual, but it’s a massive shift of votes.

I was talking to a lady yesterday, small business owner, 12 employees. She said everyone in their house shifted to vote SF, when I asked why she had no reasoning, they don’t have housing issues, no employment issues and all
Have private healthcare. It doesn’t make sense, SF are likely to tax them more, restrict private healthcare etc, yet they voted SF.

Panch18

_Brian wrote: »

For a number of elections people have been saying in polls they will vote SF as a protest to the two main candidates, this has never followed
Through and indeed in the last local elections SF lost ground.

This time round though the public seem to have followed through big time on their protest vote. I really thought it was just talk as usual, but it’s a massive shift of votes.

I was talking to a lady yesterday, small business owner, 12 employees. She said everyone in their house shifted to vote SF, when I asked why she had no reasoning, they don’t have housing issues, no employment issues and all
Have private healthcare. It doesn’t make sense, SF are likely to tax them more, restrict private healthcare etc, yet they voted SF.

Propaganda pure and simple

bogman_bass

awaywithyou wrote: »

What part of it are u from? Tis a part of the country I used to b very familiar with.... that’s a few yrs ago now....

Athboy

bogman_bass

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Just looked through the candidates that The Nationalist Party ran. 10 in total and not one got more than 1,000 first preference votes. All finished down near the bottom. Why bother?

You love to see it!
No place for their type of carry on!

is_that_so

Panch18 wrote: »

Propaganda pure and simple

Nothing to add here or is this as far as the thought goes?

_Brian

Panch18 wrote: »

Propaganda pure and simple

Presume SF will go into government with FF.

Collapse the government the first time someone forgets to put sugar in their tea in the canteen.

Run a bunch more candidates in subsequent election looking for a majority.

They were talking about a SF candidate on radio there that went from 800 votes in local elections to 18,000 votes this time out.

Bass Reeves

_Brian wrote: »

For a number of elections people have been saying in polls they will vote SF as a protest to the two main candidates, this has never followed
Through and indeed in the last local elections SF lost ground.

This time round though the public seem to have followed through big time on their protest vote. I really thought it was just talk as usual, but it’s a massive shift of votes.

I was talking to a lady yesterday, small business owner, 12 employees. She said everyone in their house shifted to vote SF, when I asked why she had no reasoning, they don’t have housing issues, no employment issues and all
Have private healthcare. It doesn’t make sense, SF are likely to tax them more, restrict private healthcare etc, yet they voted SF.

Panch18 wrote: »

Propaganda pure and simple

FG just about got away with it in the 2016 election. Yes they have got the economy back on track but they have been extremely wasteful, look at the NCH, NBP and Irish water. They pulled the Dunkettle interchange because at this stage it is obivious that tendering contracts as design and build is costing the country a fortune and is extremely wasteful. Ordinary people looked at it as FG looking after there buddies.

Now I am the first to admit that they were not helped by FF making sure that anything that would be popular was held back such as tax cuts. I actually think there housing policy was working and another 2-3 years would really change that issue.

However from the outside a lot of issue that were effecting ordinary workers were ignored. House rents soared, insurance issue ignored, childcare is a continual issue for young families. FG were comfortabe letting the large lobby groups decide there policy, unions and IBEC. Young workers in teaching and nursing looked outside there sectors to see private sector employees with degrees after 4-5 years in multinationals having way better terms and conditions and the the real benefit of public service working the pension pared back so much that they be better off if the money they were paying for a pension went into a private pension pot. The guards and nurses went on strike for better pay for young workers but the unions were really looking for a pay rise for all.

FG left rural Ireland look after itself. Insurance costs are closing down a large number of small business's involved in leisure or active tourism pursuits. Drink driving legislation annoyed more rural votes as did Shane Ross's plan to put more punitive driving penalty point system in place.

The total disconnect with ordinary people was highlighted by the Beef protest last year. Straight from the start the FG minister was following the status quo from the processors and from IFA. The beam scheme was really a slush fund for larger finishers even though it was limited to 10K and smaller producers receiving a few hundred euro were being hit by a 5% reduction clause. But it was the FG assumption that these were only a small bunch of malcontents being whispered into his ear by existing farm organisations and the idea that it was more important to protect commercial farmers. This has being the assumption of FG and driven by the bigger farm representive organisation's for the last 9 years.

In case you think I am making all this up look at constituencies which for the last 50 years were FG/FF strongholds. West Cork a constituency that was once a FF/FG strong hold as often as not 2 FG one FF as vica versa now FF hold one seat and FG none.The SD's have a seat there west Cork has gone communist, add in county Limerick, Clare, Kerry, Galway, Roscommon even Wexford and you see where not only have FG seats disappeared but FF have not won then over the last two elections. Look at counties where you never heard of SF and now they hold seats. It is interesting but some of these are counties where the Beef protests were very active such as Clare, Wexford and Longford Westmeath but then again they were from outside these area's they were not beef farmers.


Saying its propaganda is only lazy analysis

patsy_mccabe

I was told a very interesting story yesterday about a newly elected SF TD. It involved spitting in someone's face. I'd name names, but I'd fear for my life.

If Sinn Fein are using Venezuela as their template for economic policy, then we should have nothing to worry about.

Bullocks

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

I was told a very interesting story yesterday about a newly elected SF TD. It involved spitting in someone's face. I'd name names, but t'd fear for my life.

If Sinn Fein are using Venezuela as their template for economic policy, then we should have nothing to worry about.

Galway candidate for PBP got suspended from the party for smashing his girlfriends phone and spitting at her when she wouldn't tell him her password.
You would think parties could have would have picked better people.
I'd say if I pulled on a SF Jersey last month and ran I would have been elected this time.