What will the numbers be after next election

Bass Reeves

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

I was told a very interesting story yesterday about a newly elected SF TD. It involved spitting in someone's face. I'd name names, but I'd fear for my life.

If Sinn Fein are using Venezuela as their template for economic policy, then we should have nothing to worry about.

Bullocks wrote: »

Galway candidate for PBP got suspended from the party for smashing his girlfriends phone and spitting at her when she wouldn't tell him her password.
You would think parties could have would have picked better people.
I'd say if I pulled on a SF Jersey last month and ran I would have been elected this time.

Is this not a huge indictment of the established political parties where they lacked the ability or maybe rather they were so out of touch with the voters that they were unable to counteract this. Voters were looking for change and they did not see traditional parties providing it. They have looked this for the last few election and it has not happened. So they looked elsewhere.

The only answer to this is responsibility and power. FF have a choice go with FG and get punished the next election, go with SF and hope it is them that get punished.

But what ever combination gets into power it will need to listen and sort the problems facing ordinary people.whether it is in Dublin or Donegal

K.G.

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Is this not a huge indictment of the established political parties where they lacked the ability or maybe rather they were so out of touch with the voters that they were unable to counteract this. Voters were looking for change and they did not see traditional parties providing it. They have looked this for the last few election and it has not happened. So they looked elsewhere.

The only answer to this is responsibility and power. FF have a choice go with FG and get punished the next election, go with SF and hope it is them that get punished.

But what ever combination gets into power it will need to listen and sort the problems facing ordinary people.whether it is in Dublin or Donegal

Id say another election in or sein fein will go in with ff and pull it down at the first budget
Either way election in 12 months.

jaymla627

Great to see farmers didn't forget Pat Deering and his ranting on the tv with creed the time of the ploughing match about the beef protests

Bass Reeves

K.G. wrote: »

Id say another election in or sein fein will go in with ff and pull it down at the first budget
Either way election in 12 months.

And what will another election sort. SF will return with another 10-15 seats if it can convince voters it was FF/FG fault. If SF enter government and pull the plug for the sake of it voters will punish them. If SF/FF enter government it will be on the back ogf a comprehensive program for gov etnment more than likely with 4-6 FF gene TD to secure a workable majority. At this stage all parties are used to the rules of coalition government. SF knows it has a great chance to set it's agenda however FF has also the choice of a FG in government

K.G.

Bass Reeves wrote: »

And what will another election sort. SF will return with another 10-15 seats if it can convince voters it was FF/FG fault. If SF enter government and pull the plug for the sake of it voters will punish them. If SF/FF enter government it will be on the back ogf a comprehensive program for gov etnment more than likely with 4-6 FF gene TD to secure a workable majority. At this stage all parties are used to the rules of coalition government. SF knows it has a great chance to set it's agenda however FF has also the choice of a FG in government

Ah but sf will want those seats they can say what they like about changing the face of politics in this election but until they have mary lou as taiseach they are just labour.if they dont go into government theyll get hammered,if they stay in they ll get hammered the only way is to secure the largest number of seats is to have a quick election. Do you think they are looking at all the votes transferring left and going they should be our seats.but anyway what do i know

K.G.

jaymla627 wrote: »

Great to see farmers didn't forget Pat Deering and his ranting on the tv with creed the time of the ploughing match about the beef protests

Ah but what about creed.top the poll i think.

Lime Tree Farm

Timmy Dooley has lost his seat - I am very sorry to hear that.

Robson99

Lime Tree Farm wrote: »

Timmy Dooley has lost his seat - I am very sorry to hear that.

Wow...didn't see that coming

awaywithyou

this is gas

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/politics/sinn-fein-no-hoper-patricia-ryan-wins

patsy_mccabe

Lime Tree Farm wrote: »

Timmy Dooley has lost his seat - I am very sorry to hear that.

I thought he might shade it with transfers from roisin garvey as her father was a FF councillor but they went to independents and SF.

kk.man

I'd say if I pulled on a SF Jersey last month and ran I would have been elected this time.

Agree... Didn't a SF candidate go on holidays and when she came back she was elected!.. I maybe mistaken in that she topped the pole.

Something smells.

Bass Reeves

K.G. wrote: »

Ah but sf will want those seats they can say what they like about changing the face of politics in this election but until they have mary lou as taiseach they are just labour.if they dont go into government theyll get hammered,if they stay in they ll get hammered the only way is to secure the largest number of seats is to have a quick election. Do you think they are looking at all the votes transferring left and going they should be our seats.but anyway what do i know

Numbers are now in SF favours they are at 37 seats and FF now after losing the last seat at 39 max. SF can now demand a rotating Toiseach. If they can talk a smaller left party to back them they can insist on a rotating Toiseach

Mooooo

K.G. wrote: »

Ah but what about creed.top the poll i think.

Both Moynihans were ahead on first count first preferences, once transfers came in from second fg candidate he went passed em

endainoz

Lime Tree Farm wrote: »

Timmy Dooley has lost his seat - I am very sorry to hear that.

Yeah it's hilarious, vote gate didn't help his chances there. Cathal Crowe did well as he was the first one to stand up to the RIC commemoration, so he probably took a decent chunk of Timmy's vote as well.

endainoz

kk.man wrote: »

Agree... Didn't a SF candidate go on holidays and when she came back she was elected!.. I maybe mistaken in that she topped the pole.

Something smells.

Yup it's the smell of change, heard that same story about the lady going in holiday, apparently her kids had it booked for her already or something.

Panch18

endainoz wrote: »

Yup it's the smell of change, heard that same story about the lady going in holiday, apparently her kids had it booked for her already or something.

change alright if SF have anything to do about it

• More taxes
• Higher taxes
• More govt spending than it can't afford
• Weakening of our judicial system by removing the special criminal court - for fear it wasn't bad enough already
• More social welfare being paid out to a crowd that have no appreciation for it

the list of change under SF is endless alright - an none of it even remotely good

endainoz

Panch18 wrote: »

change alright if SF have anything to do about it

• More taxes
• Higher taxes
• More govt spending than it can't afford
• Weakening of our judicial system by removing the special criminal court - for fear it wasn't bad enough already
• More social welfare being paid out to a crowd that have no appreciation for it

the list of change under SF is endless alright - an none of it even remotely good

People are always afraid of more taxes. More taxes generally mean better services. This country has been leaning to the left for a long time now.

Same sex marriage was passed, the 8th was repealed yet the centre right neo liberal politics of FF/FG remained. You need a decent left leaning alternative and now it seems we might have it.

FF were due to bankrupt the country again anyway, the bailout we needed to get after their last time in power will not be paid off within our life time.

coolshannagh28

Sinn Fein strategy will be to stall ; first pretend to look to form a left wing coalition which will eventually fail to materialise , FF are rejecting going in with SF and a heave against MM is in the offing they will be in disarray , then SF will try to force FF and FG together in a c&s or coalition making themselves the main opposition . Either way they win .
If all talks break down SF will have enough candidates next time to call the shots , if FF and FG form some sort of administration it will be very short lived and SF will benefit from the subsequent election .

Reggie.

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Sinn Fein strategy will be to stall ; first pretend to look to form a left wing coalition which will eventually fail to materialise , FF are rejecting going in with SF and a heave against MM is in the offing they will be in disarray , then SF will try to force FF and FG together in a c&s or coalition making themselves the main opposition . Either way they win .
If all talks break down SF will have enough candidates next time to call the shots , if FF and FG form some sort of administration it will be very short lived and SF will benefit from the subsequent election .

Nothing in life is guaranteed tho

Panch18

endainoz wrote: »

People are always afraid of more taxes. More taxes generally mean better services. This country has been leaning to the left for a long time now.

Same sex marriage was passed, the 8th was repealed yet the centre right neo liberal politics of FF/FG remained. You need a decent left leaning alternative and now it seems we might have it.

FF were due to bankrupt the country again anyway, the bailout we needed to get after their last time in power will not be paid off within our life time.

You’re not paying too much tax yourself if you think paying more taxes is a good thing

And you assertion that more taxes leads to better services is one of the biggest leaps I’ve ever seen, certainly in this country with the public servants and unions that we have

The reality will be more taxes and damn all in return for it

Panch18

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Sinn Fein strategy will be to stall ; first pretend to look to form a left wing coalition which will eventually fail to materialise , FF are rejecting going in with SF and a heave against MM is in the offing they will be in disarray , then SF will try to force FF and FG together in a c&s or coalition making themselves the main opposition . Either way they win .
If all talks break down SF will have enough candidates next time to call the shots , if FF and FG form some sort of administration it will be very short lived and SF will benefit from the subsequent election .

Martin is backtracking at a rapid rate and will go into government with SF

Zetor19

The state of some of these tds. Holy ****. Scumbags and treehuggers. We ****ed lads .

endainoz

Zetor19 wrote: »

The state of some of these tds. Holy ****. Scumbags and treehuggers. We ****ed lads .

I'd say the admins love you.

Lime Tree Farm

Zetor19 wrote: »

The state of some of these tds. Holy ****. Scumbags and treehuggers. We ****ed lads .

How did you get back in, you must have rolled in under the canvas unknown to them.

Zetor19

Are you happy lime to see the like of that knacker down in Wexford shouting up the ra after been elected?

blue5000

Zetor19 wrote: »

Are you happy lime to see the like of that knacker down in Wexford shouting up the ra after been elected?

Mod note
Zetor19 banned from forum for trolling.

K.G.

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Numbers are now in SF favours they are at 37 seats and FF now after losing the last seat at 39 max. SF can now demand a rotating Toiseach. If they can talk a smaller left party to back them they can insist on a rotating Toiseach

Well thats it.so.another election.trying to keep a collection like that together is like driving a hunderd cattle down the road on your own.could this be the year of 3 elections.the neros will fiddle.......

Bass Reeves

K.G. wrote: »

Well thats it.so.another election.trying to keep a collection like that together is like driving a hunderd cattle down the road on your own.could this be the year of 3 elections.the neros will fiddle.......

Another election may not change the political situation as much as.peopke think. Any gains by SF will be at the expense of the left wing parties not FG and FF. There vote stayed left generally. FF transfers went to SF, Ind or left shead of FG I expect that in another election FF will transfer to FG like FG transferred to FF this time. FF and FG will.not run as many candidates, The turnout was the.lowest since 1923 for a GE at 63% it seems that older voters were those that stayed at home because of the weather.

The law of unintended consequence's comes into play. As well FF and FG are not getting any seat bonus this time at present it looks like FF/FG will at best be the early 70's

endainoz

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Another election may not change the political situation as much as.peopke think. Any gains by SF will be at the expense of the left wing parties not FG and FF. There vote stayed left generally. FF transfers went to SF, Ind or left shead of FG I expect that in another election FF will transfer to FG like FG transferred to FF this time. FF and FG will.not run as many candidates, The turnout was the.lowest since 1923 for a GE at 63% it seems that older voters were those that stayed at home because of the weather.

The law of unintended consequence's comes into play

Was definitely a factor, but sadly it looks like an ongoing trend of less turnout in Irish elections. The recent UK election was in the 50s for attendance, shocking considering it was one of their most important elections in a generation. We had a big turnout in 2011 above 70%. The main mandate there seemed to be to vote out FF after the crash, and rightfully so.

So in essence the last two government terms FG has had was started by a reactionary vote for people who wanted change, a bit like what's happening now.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Another election may not change the political situation as much as.peopke think. Any gains by SF will be at the expense of the left wing parties not FG and FF. There vote stayed left generally. FF transfers went to SF, Ind or left shead of FG I expect that in another election FF will transfer to FG like FG transferred to FF this time. FF and FG will.not run as many candidates, The turnout was the.lowest since 1923 for a GE at 63% it seems that older voters were those that stayed at home because of the weather.

The law of unintended consequence's comes into play

I think you're on the button there, Bass. The one thing people aren't taking into account is that ANY party will be doing well if half their vote to be distributed stays within party lines. I was looking at the transfers in Kerry earlier and FF received less votes than FG after a FF candidate was eliminated.

And some of those SF votes might not reappear as SF votes again if another election happens soon.

One point made elsewhere today about SF is who do you entrust with the Justice portfolio if they are the largest party? The rest I wouldn't worry too much about, if people voted for fantasy policies then the cold light of reality will shine down on those policies soon enough. But I would have great unease about a member of a party that that is against the Special Criminal Court being appointed over any section of the Justice portfolio.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Criminal_Court