What will the numbers be after next election

Mooooo

Buford T. Justice VI wrote: »

I think you're on the button there, Bass. The one thing people aren't taking into account is that ANY party will be doing well if half their vote to be distributed stays within party lines. I was looking at the transfers in Kerry earlier and FF received less votes than FG after a FF candidate was eliminated.

And some of those SF votes might not reappear as SF votes again if another election happens soon.

One point made elsewhere today about SF is who do you entrust with the Justice portfolio if they are the largest party? The rest I wouldn't worry too much about, if people voted for fantasy policies then the cold light of reality will shine down on those policies soon enough. But I would have great unease about a member of a party that that is against the Special Criminal Court being appointed over any section of the Justice portfolio.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Criminal_Court

Particularly when the special criminal court is what may be needed for situations such as in Drogheda. I agree with regard to Sinn Fein getting into government would throw a bit of realism on their policies. Options seem to be ff/fg with a share of independents/ greens or whatever or ff/ sf with a couple of independents. I think there are some still in FF that would enter with sf, as those would have a more of republican point of view. How that would be split I don't know.
There are a share of issues in this country that are just not easy to fix. The cost of doing anything really be it public or private is ridiculous. Restructuring the HSE I think would also have to include work shifts etc which unions won't be happy with, and the pension issue coming down the tracks. Housing is going to take time regardless of what happens as workers are simply not there as well as the fact the construction industry is probably the biggest black market there is in terms of the cash economy, which should also be tackled imo.
Same as ever people want change but when that change might hit the pocket they don't be long changing their tune.

coolshannagh28

Panch18 wrote: »

Martin is backtracking at a rapid rate and will go into government with SF

Martin is grasping at straws , his party are behind him now in the wrong way .

K.G.

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Martin is grasping at straws , his party are behind him now in the wrong way .

But right now martin is the only person in the dail that wants to form a government as if hes not taiseach hes gone.no party wants to sf want to stay out to be the larger party because the junior party in a government always get hamered.ff and fg dont want it because whoever goes in will get hammered and whoever stays out will clean up at the next election.

Bass Reeves

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Martin is grasping at straws , his party are behind him now in the wrong way .

FF looking like 36 seats max, FG could hit that as well if Doyle takes a seat in Wicklow, it will be down to Behan's transfers. I not sure if they can firm a government even with Independent's. FG have the high moral ground in that they have indicated from the start that they will not entertain SF.

Greens are back in play for a majority in a three party government

patsy_mccabe

With 19 seats left to fill, FF/FG have 61 seats at the moment. So as things stand they will be well short of a majority of 81.

coolshannagh28

Bass Reeves wrote: »

FF looking like 36 seats max, FG could hit that as well if Doyle takes a seat in Wicklow, it will be down to Behan's transfers. I not sure if they can firm a government even with Independent's. FG have the high moral ground in that they have indicated from the start that they will not entertain SF.

Greens are back in play for a majority in a three party government

Its the only chance of a government , SF are not interested in forming one and if Martin gets the heave it could be back to the country.

Bass Reeves

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Its the only chance of a government , SF are not interested in forming one and if Martin gets the heave it could be back to the country.

With the numbers for FF/FG of 73 I am not sure if a government is doable. I think independets from FF gene pool would be.uncomfortable with putting FG back into government. Free s would not be for that either. FF/SF and either Greens it Independent's is the most likely option

Bass Reeves

FG just dropped a seat I taught would fall to them on Dublin FF again transferred strongly to the left

coolshannagh28

Bass Reeves wrote: »

With the numbers for FF/FG of 73 I am not sure if a government is doable. I think independets from FF gene pool would be.uncomfortable with putting FG back into government. Free s would not be for that either. FF/SF and either Greens it Independent's is the most likely option

Cant see SF going into govt , they are playing a longer game.

Injuryprone

SOL/PBP pretty much have to row in behind SF because most of them only got in on the back of SF surpluses and apart from Boyd Barrett, they'll be wiped out in a re-election if SF run a second candidate in their constituencies. So SF are effectively on 43/44 seats, so the only way I see them in govt is with Mary Lou as taoiseach.

Isn't it a fairly damning indictment in FF and FG that there both trying to pass the buck on the formation of govt and are both dieing to be the main opposition party. Now you can call me nieve, but what would be wrong with FF/FG/GP coalition? It should be very straightforward to from a policy point of view. If they were to do a good job, there's no reason why they wouldn't be returned the next time. And it's not like they have to do a great job, people don't expect very much. All they'd have to do is a good bit better on housing, a small bit better on health and fix the absolute messes of the children's hospital and broadband. It shouldn't be beyond the scope of a competent government.

They're basically saying they don't have any confidence in their own abilities to do a good job in government? They know they'll be unpopular and will lose out in the next election.

awaywithyou

Injuryprone wrote: »

SOL/PBP pretty much have to row in behind SF because most of them only got in on the back of SF surpluses and apart from Boyd Barrett, they'll be wiped out in a re-election if SF run a second candidate in their constituencies. So SF are effectively on 43/44 seats, so the only way I see them in govt is with Mary Lou as taoiseach.

Isn't it a fairly damning indictment in FF and FG that there both trying to pass the buck on the formation of govt and are both dieing to be the main opposition party. Now you can call me nieve, but what would be wrong with FF/FG/GP coalition? It should be very straightforward to from a policy point of view. If they were to do a good job, there's no reason why they wouldn't be returned the next time. And it's not like they have to do a great job, people don't expect very much. All they'd have to do is a good bit better on housing, a small bit better on health and fix the absolute messes of the children's hospital and broadband. It shouldn't be beyond the scope of a competent government.

They're basically saying they don't have any confidence in their own abilities to do a good job in government? They know they'll be unpopular and will lose out in the next election.

if SF dont go into govt this time with the number of seats they have they never will..... what are they afraid of??? that people wil find out they are no differeent to FF/FG.... what wil b interesting is if the Justice minister is SF member what kind of relationship wil they have with the Garda Siochana... imagine if Cullinane was nominated for it


for us farmers i presume that if the Greens are involved... we can 100% say goodbye to derogation???

Topgear on Dave

Injuryprone wrote: »

SOL/PBP pretty much have to row in behind SF because most of them only got in on the back of SF surpluses.

LOL do you know these loopers :pac:

Mick Barry was on RTE radio this evening after he was elected and he wants no part of government. His message to SF was that they need to stay away from it too.

Mortelaro

Fianna Fáil have 38
Sinn Féin 37 but winning the popular vote
One of the FF is the Ceann Comhairle who was auto returned
So how could micheal be taoiseach in an FF sf green soc Dem government?
It won't happen ,he is Fucked
It looks like both FF and FG are going to step aside and let the left have their government
A case of careful what they wish for
We'll soon see reality and the undeliverable

Bass Reeves

Mortelaro wrote: »

Fianna Fáil have 38
Sinn Féin 37 but winning the popular vote
One of the FF is the Ceann Comhairle who was auto returned
So how could micheal be taoiseach in an FF sf green soc Dem government?
It won't happen ,he is Fucked
It looks like both FF and FG are going to step aside and let the left have their government
A case of careful what they wish for
We'll soon see reality and the undeliverable

Lab and SolPBP have both declared that they will not enter government. I cannot see independent's support a FF/FG government. That leaves the combinations as
FF/FG/Gr
FF/SF and either Greens or Independent's

Dakota Dan

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Lab and SolPBP have both declared that they will not enter government. I cannot see independent's support a FF/FG government. That leaves the combinations as
FF/FG/Gr
FF/SF and either Greens or Independent's

Hopefully not the greens with their climate action nonsense.

endainoz

Dakota Dan wrote: »

Hopefully not the greens with their climate action nonsense.

I'd say the greens are more or less guaranteed to be in government Dan, whoever they go with. Your climate action 'nonsense' policies are coming whether you like it or not.

patsy_mccabe

endainoz wrote: »

I'd say the greens are more or less guaranteed to be in government Dan, whoever they go with. Your climate action 'nonsense' policies are coming whether you like it or not.

Yep, the Greens are in the driving seat. They hold all the aces, no matter what way you look at it.

Genghis Cant

Cavan / Monahan just wrapped up. All seats filled now.
I think the final tally of the main players is...
FF 38
SF 37
FG 35
IND 19
GREEN 12

Lot of horse trading to be done now.

Bass Reeves

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Yep, the Greens are in the driving seat. They hold all the aces, no matter what way you look at it.

I am not so sure. Michael Martin needs to bring more than 38 seats to the negotiation. FF needs to arrive at the table with 8-10 independent's to provide a stable majority for a government so that it can offer Mary Lou being Toiseach in 2-3 years time.

It's the only game in town other than the Grand Coalition which the Independent's will not buy into.

cameramonkey

Panch18 wrote: »

Hoping and praying that SF won't get 36 seats from 42 candidates. 26 is more than i could stomach from that shower

Panch18

cameramonkey wrote: »

Even worst than I could have imagined!

Dunedin

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I am not so sure. Michael Martin needs to bring more than 38 seats to the negotiation. FF needs to arrive at the table with 8-10 independent's to provide a stable majority for a government so that it can offer Mary Lou being Toiseach in 2-3 years time.

It's the only game in town other than the Grand Coalition which the Independent's will not buy into.

I think you’ll see FF sitting back for a little while to allow SF time to put up or shut i.e. will they make a genuine effort to form a government.

I think there’s a possibility of a national government in the country’s interest for 12 months.

I’d say no matter what happens Michael Martins days as leader are coming to the end.

Say my name

Willie O Dea as Taoiseach.

He'll have Reggie and co crossing the border egged on by SF.

€700m was wiped off AIB and BOI bank shares yesterday on the back of the Sinn Fein result.

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/sinn-fein-surge-wipes-700m-off-aib-and-boi-38945672.html

Robson99

I think Martin knows it's his last chance at being Taoiseach. The question is dies he put the good of the party ahead of his ego. If FF go into govt with the Shinners then one will be buried in the next election.
I think Leo is right to step back and let them at it.
If FF had any sense they would too.

As much as it pains me to say it let SF form a govt with the lefties.

We will see how David Cullinane gets on as Justice Minister...Pearses Doherty in Finance....Dessie Ellis as Minister for the Defence Forces...Johnny Mythen Health... Martin Kenny Agriculture...
It could be the best thing to happen...short term Pain for long term Gain....it might be easy count their seats in the next election...when Taxes, Criminality and Justice will be the main agenda

Bass Reeves

Dunedin wrote: »

I think you’ll see FF sitting back for a little while to allow SF time to put up or shut i.e. will they make a genuine effort to form a government.

I think there’s a possibility of a national government in the country’s interest for 12 months.

I’d say no matter what happens Michael Martins days as leader are coming to the end.

Robson99 wrote: »

I think Martin knows it's his last chance at being Taoiseach. The question is dies he put the good of the party ahead of his ego. If FF go into govt with the Shinners then one will be buried in the next election.
I think Leo is right to step back and let them at it.
If FF had any sense they would too.

As much as it pains me to say it let SF form a govt with the lefties.

We will see how David Cullinane gets on as Justice Minister...Pearses Doherty in Finance....Dessie Ellis as Minister for the Defence Forces...Johnny Mythen Health... Martin Kenny Agriculture...
It could be the best thing to happen...short term Pain for long term Gain....it might be easy count their seats in the next election...when Taxes, Criminality and Justice will be the main agenda

The problem is that on Sunday Micheal opened the door he cannot now put the genie back in the bottle because he has less numbers than he taught then. If FF is seen not to do its duty it could well suffer in a re election as voters switch to FG and SF from his party. SF cannot form a left wing government the numbers do not stack up. As I said there is only a few numerical possabilities to form a government. FF has to make the choice of which is most palatable FF/FG or FF/SF, there the only games in town.

Leo can always sit tight for 6-8 weeks in the Toiseach office and then claim FG will stand by the country ''will we dance Mary Lou''

patsy_mccabe

One thing for certain from this election is that the Irish voter no longer has any blind loyalty to the 2 main parties, FG and FF. I remember years ago if someone changed their loyalty, they would be considered a turn-coat.

_Brian

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

One thing for certain from this election is that the Irish voter no longer has any blind loyalty to the 2 main partues, FG and FF. I rememeber years ago. if someone changed their loyalty they would be considered a turn-coat.

In fairness SF ran a party led push, as a FF candidate said on the radio yesterday they ran a load of individuals under a party badge which is very different.
Locally here there is massive strife within the FF candidates to the extent that one side we’re canvassing for a No1 for themselves and then vote outside the party after that in an effort to exclude their running mate. I think this election will end that complacency and refocus the party brand.

mahoney_j

Robson99 wrote: »

I think Martin knows it's his last chance at being Taoiseach. The question is dies he put the good of the party ahead of his ego. If FF go into govt with the Shinners then one will be buried in the next election.
I think Leo is right to step back and let them at it.
If FF had any sense they would too.

As much as it pains me to say it let SF form a govt with the lefties.

We will see how David Cullinane gets on as Justice Minister...Pearses Doherty in Finance....Dessie Ellis as Minister for the Defence Forces...Johnny Mythen Health... Martin Kenny Agriculture...
It could be the best thing to happen...short term Pain for long term Gain....it might be easy count their seats in the next election...when Taxes, Criminality and Justice will be the main agenda

I’m thinking same much as it pains me to say it ,it would be a wise move for mm as well .the worry though is how much damage will/would sf and the lefties do and how long would it take to recover .there is some people like Pearse Doherty in the party with a brain but a Lot are clueless and lucky to be elected ,here in tipp the sf candidate. Is unemployed and didn’t even keep his council seat last year the vote was for sf and not him .poplus policies and telling people what they wanted to hear bought seats for the shinners

Neddyusa

_Brian wrote: »

In fairness SF ran a party led push, as a FF candidate said on the radio yesterday they ran a load of individuals under a party badge which is very different.
Locally here there is massive strife within the FF candidates to the extent that one side we’re canvassing for a No1 for themselves and then vote outside the party after that in an effort to exclude their running mate. I think this election will end that complacency and refocus the party brand.

The only thing different is that this time people voted blindly for the SF badge (regardless of the candidate).
In the past these same voters voted for the FG or FF badge (also regardless of the candidate) for generations.

Bass Reeves

mahoney_j wrote: »

I’m thinking same much as it pains me to say it ,it would be a wise move for mm as well .the worry though is how much damage will/would sf and the lefties do and how long would it take to recover .there is some people like Pearse Doherty in the party with a brain but a Lot are clueless and lucky to be elected ,here in tipp the sf candidate. Is unemployed and didn’t even keep his council seat last year the vote was for sf and not him .poplus policies and telling people what they wanted to hear bought seats for the shinners

The numbers do not add up for a government without two of the big three