What will the numbers be after next election

Dunedin

red bull wrote: »

We have had one election in 2020 it's inconcluvsive a surge to SF failed council candidates get near double quota's ?
How do ? as happened in some constituencies unknown candidates top the poll.
It certainly looks to me that we are going to have another election shortly...………...and I would doubt that we will be surprised a second time

I think you’ll see ff and FG coming up with some sort of coalition to keep sf out. It’s in their interest as going to the country again so soon could see possibly another 10 Shinners in and at the expense of ff/FG

MM for Taoiseach or out the gap very shortly but my moneys on the first. How long he might last is another question.

kk.man

cameramonkey wrote: »

Making a judgement like that purely on geographical location is not that reliable, the two brothers that have been named in the papers as being involved are from Dublin as are many of their supposed gang. There are some interesting jackanories on the web saying they are MI5 assets gone rogue.
But like your belief its purely speculation.

The local parish priest seems to have a fair idea based on his sermon one Sunday.

Bullocks

kk.man wrote: »

The local parish priest seems to have a fair idea based on his sermon one Sunday.

The Catholic Church did a fair bit of damage themselves

mahoney_j

Dunedin wrote: »

I think you’ll see ff and FG coming up with some sort of coalition to keep sf out. It’s in their interest as going to the country again so soon could see possibly another 10 Shinners in and at the expense of ff/FG

MM for Taoiseach or out the gap very shortly but my moneys on the first. How long he might last is another question.

The people have spoke ,mm should take a leaf out of Leo’s book and stick to his promises the people voted sf and the left (an afull lot very blindly)so leave the shinners and lefties at it .mary Lou and co have to deliever what they promised political suicide for mm or Leo to jump in ,take a year out and get ready to come back and rescue us ,and hopefully not too much of a mess is made

Bass Reeves

mahoney_j wrote: »

The people have spoke ,mm should take a leaf out of Leo’s book and stick to his promises the people voted sf and the left (an afull lot very blindly)so leave the shinners and lefties at it .mary Lou and co have to deliever what they promised political suicide for mm or Leo to jump in ,take a year out and get ready to come back and rescue us ,and hopefully not too much of a mess is made

The problem is either one of FF or FG have to go with SF or else they have to form s government themselves. The Greens might find it politically hard to justify putting FG back into power. FF would along with the Greens would be most likely to suffer long-term in such a relationship. If the Greens did not go into government it would take 10-14 independent's and also you would need the opposition to provide the Ceann Comhairile in such a situation. IMO there is no such thing as a base support for any party every one of them could drop below 20 seats on a bad day

K.G.

I hope ff/fg have the balls to stand back and abstain from taiseach vote next thurs.

endainoz

K.G. wrote: »

I hope ff/fg have the balls to stand back and abstain from taiseach vote next thurs.

They are already in bed with each other at this point. FF rejected SF yesterday so their options are limited. It looks like two possible scenarios now. A FFG coalition or another election.

I can see a coalition lasting 6 months to be honest, in the meantime Mary Lou gets even more support in opposition And it will lead to another election anyways.

They won't vote her for taoiseach anyway, but I think she'll get the position in the near future regardless.

Bass Reeves

K.G. wrote: »

I hope ff/fg have the balls to stand back and abstain from taiseach vote next thurs.

And what exactly will that prove

yosemitesam1

endainoz wrote: »

They are already in bed with each other at this point. FF rejected SF yesterday so their options are limited. It looks like two possible scenarios now. A FFG coalition or another election.

I can see a coalition lasting 6 months to be honest, in the meantime Mary Lou gets even more support in opposition And it will lead to another election anyways.

They won't vote her for taoiseach anyway, but I think she'll get the position in the near future regardless.

Would it be best to have another election, if SF get more seats leave them form a coalition with greens etc. Let them make a fcuk of things if that's what the people want. Another election in 2-3 years. Would be better than coming back in 2-3 years and the risk of SF in a much stronger position than now

White Clover

endainoz wrote: »

They are already in bed with each other at this point. FF rejected SF yesterday so their options are limited. It looks like two possible scenarios now. A FFG coalition or another election.

I can see a coalition lasting 6 months to be honest, in the meantime Mary Lou gets even more support in opposition And it will lead to another election anyways.

They won't vote her for taoiseach anyway, but I think she'll get the position in the near future regardless.

As far as I remember, FF and FG said before the election that they wouldn't talk to Sinn Fein.
Mary Lou is like a wasp now when she's front and centre and has to come up with a solution.

Bass Reeves

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Would it be best to have another election, if SF get more seats leave them form a coalition with greens etc. Let them make a fcuk of things if that's what the people want. Another election in 2-3 years. Would be better than coming back in 2-3 years and the risk of SF in a much stronger position than now

If sF increases numbers it will be at the expense of left wing parties and some independents so numbers so FF/FG numbers will change little. Both FF and FG want SF in government but are unwilling to go into government with it

endainoz

White Clover wrote: »

As far as I remember, FF and FG said before the election that they wouldn't talk to Sinn Fein.
Mary Lou is like a wasp now when she's front and centre and has to come up with a solution.

That wasp got the biggest share of the votes, and will inevitably get a bigger share next election.

K.G.

Bass Reeves wrote: »

And what exactly will that prove

If there was election in the next couple of months would fg /ff come back with much fewer seats.the people have spoken they dont want ff/fg .why are sf so anxious to take them with them.if we have another election sf could consolidate.more seats which would give.a.bigger.blockf ff fg abstain we are getting the government. That what the.peoplle want.lads there is only one crowd want power and only one crowd want another election,all that sbeing decided is the narrative for that election

White Clover

endainoz wrote: »

That wasp got the biggest share of the votes, and will inevitably get a bigger share next election.

One would have to ask are they sinn fein votes for life or just borrowed votes.

endainoz

White Clover wrote: »

One would have to ask are they sinn fein votes for life or just borrowed votes.

Oh they quite likely are, my vote for them was borrowed that's for sure. But people have voted for change which they have not gotten. It would suggest that people will keep that vote until change occurs.

If they happen to shock everyone on this thread and do a good job, then they night have votes for life.

Bass Reeves

K.G. wrote: »

If there was election in the next couple of months would fg /ff come back with much fewer seats.the people have spoken they dont want ff/fg .why are sf so anxious to take them with them.if we have another election sf could consolidate.more seats which would give.a.bigger.blockf ff fg abstain we are getting the government. That what the.peoplle want.lads there is only one crowd want power and only one crowd want another election,all that sbeing decided is the narrative for that election

It us very unlikely that FF and FG will drop much further.Analysis of voting in.last election is that while the turnout was low the younger was up and FF and FG have much stronger support in the over 50 section of voters and this climbs as you hit 80 and over. This was the subsection that did not turn out because of the wet and poor weather on the day. Most may have planned to vote after Mass and because of the weather did neither. As well FF and FG may have had too many candidates to maximize there seat numbers. They could adjust this in another election.

As well while FG transferred to FF the FF and Independent in that order the transfer record shows that it went independent and then left. In any new election I expect for FF voters to change there transfer pattern. Along with a higher older turnout both parties could creep nearer to 40 each and one might go beyond. For MM the risk would be that FG might get more seats and the office of Toiseach would go to FG.

The truck for any part looking for a new election us to make sure it cannot be blamed for it

endainoz

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It us very unlikely that FF and FG will drop much further.Analysis of voting in.last election is that while the turnout was low the younger was up and FF and FG have much stronger support in the over 50 section of voters and this climbs as you hit 80 and over. This was the subsection that did not turn out because of the wet and poor weather on the day. Most may have planned to vote after Mass and because of the weather did neither. As well FF and FG may have had too many candidates to maximize there seat numbers. They could adjust this in another election.

As well while FG transferred to FF the FF and Independent in that order the transfer record shows that it went independent and then left. In any new election I expect for FF voters to change there transfer pattern. Along with a higher older turnout both parties could creep nearer to 40 each and one might go beyond. For MM the risk would be that FG might get more seats and the office of Toiseach would go to FG.

The truck for any part looking for a new election us to make sure it cannot be blamed for it

Sinn Fein had the majority of voters up to 65+. If MM expects to get more seats in another election he would be crying out for it, he isn't. I think SF could easily get 40+ seats in another election. Would have been hard to fathom that only 6 months ago.

Bass Reeves

endainoz wrote: »

Sinn Fein had the majority of voters up to 65+. If MM expects to get more seats in another election he would be crying out for it, he isn't. I think SF could easily get 40+ seats in another election. Would have been hard to fathom that only 6 months ago.

No SF did not have majority in the sub 65 age bracket it hit around 35% in the sub 40age group. It total vote was around 26%. Yes it will win more seats in the case of a new election but it is from left wing candidates and independent's. But in the lowest percentage turnout in a GE since 1923 the younger voter turnout was up and the over 60s was doen

endainoz

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0209/1114255-voter-turnout/

This guy says regardless of turnout results would have been the same.

Anto_Meath

I would guess there would be very little change in another election FG & FF would probably win one or two they lost the last time but loose one or two they won so would return with probably the same number of seats. SF would obviously run more candidates and therefore would get 2 TD's in some constituencies probably another 10 over all, but the other parties on the left would loose out the likes of Garry Gannon, Brid Smith, ect so when it would come to forming a government we would be no nearer. But you would have a new leader in FF so that may mean after a second election FF & SF might form a coalition government, especially if say Éamon Ó Cuív was FF leader.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Anto_Meath wrote: »

I would guess there would be very little change in another election FG & FF would probably win one or two they lost the last time but loose one or two they won so would return with probably the same number of seats. SF would obviously run more candidates and therefore would get 2 TD's in some constituencies probably another 10 over all, but the other parties on the left would loose out the likes of Garry Gannon, Brid Smith, ect so when it would come to forming a government we would be no nearer. But you would have a new leader in FF so that may mean after a second election FF & SF might form a coalition government, especially if say Éamon Ó Cuív was FF leader.

Not certain they would get anywhere near that, tbh.

Firstly, we're assuming that all that voted for them last time out would vote for them again, which isn't certain at all.

They would have to split constituencies in half, or close to it, for a chance to run two candidates with a chance of winning two seats. Then their first candidate wouldn't top the poll so whichever one might be elected first wouldn't have many votes in excess of the quota to bring in a second seat. This is traditionally a FF failing in not being able to manage a constituency to maximise the seats rather than the vote and Mary Lou wouldn't have been exposed to the FG management strategies that traditionally won them more seats than their voting share would indicate. Indeed, FF probably lost out on a few seats due to not managing their vote properly.

And much of any candidates votes are personal rather than party so any transfers from a surplus or elimination wouldn't transfer wholly to another SF candidate. They would be lucky to get 60% of the transferable vote to a second candidate and probably less than that so many 'SF' votes would suddenly become votes for a different candidate.

And then the older voters who didn't vote because of the weather last week would be out in force for a second election. This category has the lowest vote share for SF so again other candidates would be gaining a larger share of the vote.

Snowfire

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Would it be best to have another election, if SF get more seats leave them form a coalition with greens etc. Let them make a fcuk of things if that's what the people want. Another election in 2-3 years. Would be better than coming back in 2-3 years and the risk of SF in a much stronger position than now

2-3 years is a lot of time for people with no experience to be running a country. Not enough time to fix the county’s problems, but enough to seriously fu@k things up again. Strong government needed now until brexit deal is done. A coalition with all the left would barely last until the next budget, Mary lou knows that too, so I doubt that will happen.

endainoz

Jjameson wrote: »

Brexit trade deals are going to be perpetual and rhetorical in nature. No strong government(whatever you define that as) is going to to define them. But the thoughts of the IRA in a position of negotiating is disgusting and abhorren

Shinners are not fit to live in a civilised democratic society due to their extremist fundamentalist culture. Never mind to put them in Government. The list of TDS include a prolific bomb maker, the wife of a convicted drug dealer, the estranged wife of one of garda Gerry mccabes murderers. How could any civil party sit alongside them? Up the RA chants in the Dail bar?

Keep banging the aul drum good man, won't change the results of the election. Looks like FFG will find a way to keep them out though, so nothing to worry about. Let's keep the same two party system that we've had for almost 100 years.

*Just so your aware it would be Sinn Fein negotiating not the IRA. You seem to have a problem telling difference. It's the same way that FG aren't facists anymore, or that FF aren't ran by the Catholic Church anymore.

_Brian

It’s really starting to drag listening to SF and MaryL demanding other parties negotiate with them.

They need to understand this is a democracy, they only got 36 out of 160 seats, they are not entitled to talks with other parties and certainly not entitled to be in government.

Even on the back of another election if they somehow got another 10 seats they could still be a bit too toxic for others to join them in government.

Jjameson

Jjameson wrote: »

The only drum I’ve ever banged are oil drums!
They haven’t a mandate to be in so the electorate are keeping them out still thankfully. I concur that ff and fg are two cheeks of the same arse however Sinn Fein are never going to be a feasible alternative. It was a pity labour didn’t drive on 20 years ago.

FF/FG have 73 of 160 votes - 1 of which, in FFs case, was the Ceann Comhairle, who was automatically re-elected.
There are 87 TDs who belong to neither party.
Clearly, the majority of people did NOT vote in favour of FF/FG again.
All political parties, therefore, need to be very aware that their approach to democracy is being carefully observed by the electorate. Any attempt at a power grab, will, imho, be roundly punished at the next general election. The people have overwhelmingly voted for change. All political parties should take note. The mood among the electorate has not been forgiving of the last 2 Governments. Why would anyone think they would accept more of the same from a 3rd Government?
The only truly democratic way to resolve the question of what the electorate want is another election.
Who believes we will be "permitted" one?

Bass Reeves

Jjameson wrote: »

The only drum I’ve ever banged are oil drums!
They haven’t a mandate to be in so the electorate are keeping them out still thankfully. I concur that ff and fg are two cheeks of the same arse however Sinn Fein are never going to be a feasible alternative. It was a pity labour didn’t drive on 20 years ago.

Labour did drive on 15-20 years ago remember the Gilmore gale. But the older ( mostly Democratic Left rump) over promised in 2011 to get back into power. This wiped out Labour and SF ate its lunch.

_Brian

Deleted User wrote: »

FF/FG have 73 of 160 votes - 1 of which, in FFs case, was the Ceann Comhairle, who was automatically re-elected.
There are 87 TDs who belong to neither party.
Clearly, the majority of people did NOT vote in favour of FF/FG again.
All political parties, therefore, need to be very aware that their approach to democracy is being carefully observed by the electorate. Any attempt at a power grab, will, imho, be roundly punished at the next general election. The people have overwhelmingly voted for change. All political parties should take note. The mood among the electorate has not been forgiving of the last 2 Governments. Why would anyone think they would accept more of the same from a 3rd Government?
The only truly democratic way to resolve the question of what the electorate want is another election.
Who believes we will be "permitted" one?

It’s not about permitted, the laws are very specific.

I think SF would indeed gain some more seats in another election, as many from the left parties as from the right. I can’t see is being any better off after another election.

_Brian

Jjameson wrote: »

Of the 87 candidates voted in by the electorate how many of them got in on policies or manifesto that align more to Sinn F’s than the combined ff fg coalition. Democracy is working just fine in terms of the people getting who the majority have voted in on this occasion . It’s the lack of a descant centre left party that’s the problem.

So didn’t labour say they wouldn’t go in with SF ??
Plus about half the independents are probably right leaning and wouldn’t hitch up with A left leaning government.

Should the greens not be a centre left party ?? Eamon lost allot of votes as probably did Saoirse with her revolutionary talk.

Jjameson

Jjameson wrote: »

Of the 87 candidates voted in by the electorate how many of them got in on policies or manifesto that align more to Sinn Féin’s than the combined ff fg coalition. Democracy is working just fine in terms of the people getting who the majority have voted in on this occasion . It’s the lack of a descant centre left party that’s the problem.

You are thinking of this only in regard to Sinn Fein.
The basic facts are, neither FF, FG, or SF have enough of a majority to form a government.

But, the majority of people did not vote for the 2 parties that now appear most likely to be able to cobble together a government. Any smaller parties joining in a coalition will be swallowed up, apart from whatever crumbs they can negotiate as a reward for facilitating a government being formed.

That's the plain truth - and we all know it!

So - those of the electorate who want anybody but FF/FG
(including me, although I did not vote for SF), will punish those parties at the next election.

Which means, we will be left with either a surging SF, or another grouping of independents/left leaning groups/greens.

It makes more sense, certainly for the smaller parties, to avoid getting a drubbing in the next election, imho.

I agree that the left leaning groupings need to get their acts together.

Meanwhile, if any party wants to survive or grow, I think they'd be well advised to think long and hard about the next election before they decide to enter government with ANY party.

There's a mood for change among the electorate, and I don't think it will be stated by another FF/FG government.

If I were a politician right now, I'd be looking for another election as soon as possible.
It's one thing getting punished for your own policy in the election - it's a whole different ballgame getting punished by a vindictive public for supporting a grouping- whatever it might be - that the electorate feel was foisted on them.

The only logical course that I can see is another election.

_Brian

_Brian wrote: »

It’s not about permitted, the laws are very specific.

I think SF would indeed gain some more seats in another election, as many from the left parties as from the right. I can’t see is being any better off after another election.

I'm not so sure.
SF might gain more seats - but, equally, people who voted SF as a protest, without ever foreseeing the surge in support, might well move to other parties. As to who those parties may be remains to be seen - but one thing is certain. FF and FG have been punished by the electorate, any any party facilitating them in Government is likely to go the way of Labour, the Greens, and, indeed, even FF in this election.

The only way I can see it being solved is to have another election.
At least then, smaller parties can say they can't keep having elections, and the minds of the larger parties will have been made up for them by the electorate - which is how it should be, anyway.