What will the numbers be after next election

_Brian

_Brian wrote: »

It’s not about permitted, the laws are very specific.

I think SF would indeed gain some more seats in another election, as many from the left parties as from the right. I can’t see is being any better off after another election.

I'm not so sure.
SF might gain more seats - but, equally, people who voted SF as a protest, without ever foreseeing the surge in support, might well move to other parties. As to who those parties may be remains to be seen - but one thing is certain. FF and FG have been punished by the electorate, any any party facilitating them in Government is likely to go the way of Labour, the Greens, and, indeed, even FF in this election.

The only way I can see it being solved is to have another election.
At least then, smaller parties can say they can't keep having elections, and the minds of the larger parties will have been made up for them by the electorate - which is how it should be, anyway.

_Brian

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm not so sure.
SF might gain more seats - but, equally, people who voted SF as a protest, without ever foreseeing the surge in support, might well move to other parties. As to who those parties may be remains to be seen - but one thing is certain. FF and FG have been punished by the electorate, any any party facilitating them in Government is likely to go the way of Labour, the Greens, and, indeed, even FF in this election.

The only way I can see it being solved is to have another election.
At least then, smaller parties can say they can't keep having elections, and the minds of the larger parties will have been made up for them by the electorate - which is how it should be, anyway.

Some people are talking like it’s just a matter of SF running a load more candidates and election is a sure thing.

But 6 of the candidates they ran weren’t elected, so they need to think about strategy too, not just a numbers game as some people are suggesting. Every party has a limit to the strength of their vote.

Snowfire

_Brian wrote: »

Some people are talking like it’s just a matter of SF running a load more candidates and election is a sure thing.

But 6 of the candidates they ran weren’t elected, so they need to think about strategy too, not just a numbers game as some people are suggesting. Every party has a limit to the strength of their vote.

Ability to sing RA songs and have a pulse seems to be the only qualifications needed to run on the Sf ticket, some of the candidates failed miserably in the last local elections and still managed to top the polls in the general election. Mind boggling

_Brian

_Brian wrote: »

Some people are talking like it’s just a matter of SF running a load more candidates and election is a sure thing.

But 6 of the candidates they ran weren’t elected, so they need to think about strategy too, not just a numbers game as some people are suggesting. Every party has a limit to the strength of their vote.

Of course. But, irrespective of who would be elected if there were another election, the alternative is risking years of political instability, with many electorate, irrespective of who they support, unhappy that party x supported party y.

At least if there were another election, then people would have to accept that a Government needed to be formed.

As it is, if FF/FG form a government, a lot of the electorate would feel betrayed - (equally, any other combination would have the same effect, obviously) - and we've seen how that played out in the past.

blue5000

Anyone care to predict what the numbers will be after the next election?:rolleyes:

blue5000

blue5000 wrote: »

Anyone care to predict what the numbers will be after the next election?:rolleyes:

Haha. Not a chance. It could go any way.

mahoney_j

Jjameson wrote: »

Brexit trade deals are going to be perpetual and rhetorical in nature. No strong government(whatever you define that as) is going to to define them. But the thoughts of the IRA in a position of negotiating is disgusting and abhorren

Shinners are not fit to live in a civilised democratic society due to their extremist fundamentalist culture. Never mind to put them in Government. The list of TDS include a prolific bomb maker, the wife of a convicted drug dealer, the estranged wife of one of garda Gerry mccabes murderers. How could any civil party sit alongside them? Up the RA chants in the Dail bar?

Outside of Mary Lou and Pearse Doherty there’s absoutely nothing in that party .

Bullocks

blue5000 wrote: »

Anyone care to predict what the numbers will be after the next election?:rolleyes:

No numbers but I'd say FF would get a few more ,SF stay the same and FG might lose a couple .
I'd be hoping people that voted SF as a punishment vote to the two big parties would have a change of heart and maybe stick with the devil they know as opposed to the devil they don't but who knows

amacca

Ill put my neck on the chopping block and predict that Sinn Fein will have less elected next time around.

A certain percentage of the protest vote evaporates due to disillusionment and/or some of the older cohort that voted for them sobering up. (not literally)...another group will perceive a vote for SF as wasted anyway because they won't get in + you never know what they would do to shoot themselves in the foot from now until the next election (if it goes that way)....same goes for the other cretins on the latter point too though I suppose.

amacca

amacca wrote: »

Ill put my neck on the chopping block and predict that Sinn Fein will have less elected next time around.

A certain percentage of the protest vote evaporates due to disillusionment and/or some of the older cohort that voted for them sobering up. (not literally)...another group will perceive a vote for SF as wasted anyway because they won't get in + you never know what they would do to shoot themselves in the foot from now until the next election (if it goes that way)....same goes for the other cretins on the latter point too though I suppose.

That's possible. It all depends on the level of public disillusionment, I think.

bogman_bass

_Brian wrote: »

It’s really starting to drag listening to SF and MaryL demanding other parties negotiate with them.

They need to understand this is a democracy, they only got 36 out of 160 seats, they are not entitled to talks with other parties and certainly not entitled to be in government.
.

They don’t want to go in partnership, they want an election but don’t want to be seen to cause it

_Brian

bogman_bass wrote: »

They don’t want to go in partnership, they want an election but don’t want to be seen to cause it

While no doubt they will gain a few more seats they are facing the same problem, it won’t be enough to form a government and FFG are likely to still consider them too toxic to govern with.

dh1985

mahoney_j wrote: »

Outside of Mary Lou and Pearse Doherty there’s absoutely nothing in that party .

And Matt cathy to be fair. Seems like a very capable politician. But outside of that not a massive amount of quality personnel. But to be fair both FG and FF have plenty of dummies also

mahoney_j

dh1985 wrote: »

And Matt cathy to be fair. Seems like a very capable politician. But outside of that not a massive amount of quality personnel. But to be fair both FG and FF have plenty of dummies also

The problem with a lot of elected sf tds is the vote wasn’t for them it was for sf so there’s going to be a lot of sub standard people in the dail our elected td in tipp list his council seat over a year ago ,unemployed for over a year and wasn’t expected to figure in final shake up ,then look at your man below in Waterford as well as the other shady charchters around the country

patsy_mccabe

mahoney_j wrote: »

Outside of Mary Lou and Pearse Doherty there’s absoutely nothing in that party .

What about Violet-Anne Wynne?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/td-says-shell-pay-12000-in-rent-arrears-to-charity-38958626.html

_Brian

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

What about Violet-Anne Wynne?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/td-says-shell-pay-12000-in-rent-arrears-to-charity-38958626.html

Wasn’t she linked to some AntiVax statements this week, not good PR for the party.

_Brian

_Brian wrote: »

While no doubt they will gain a few more seats they are facing the same problem, it won’t be enough to form a government and FFG are likely to still consider them too toxic to govern with.

They might not have a choice.
Be it in the near future, or after whatever lifespan the next government may have - any smaller party supporting a FF/FG government is likely to be punished. Does anyone really think the smaller parties can't see that?

Personally, if I were a member or TD, in one of the smaller parties - particularly if I had genuine ideals - I'd run a mile.

Equally, if party supporters were adamant that any party shouldn't be supported in Government - I'd also run a mile.

They're damned if they do, and damned if they don't.
The only solution I can see is another election - and the sooner, the better.

After all, Brexit is still an ongoing process....

Dunedin

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They might not have a choice.
Be it in the near future, or after whatever lifespan the next government may have - any smaller party supporting a FF/FG government is likely to be punished. Does anyone really think the smaller parties can't see that?

Personally, if I were a member or TD, in one of the smaller parties - particularly if I had genuine ideals - I'd run a mile.

Equally, if party supporters were adamant that any party shouldn't be supported in Government - I'd also run a mile.

They're damned if they do, and damned if they don't.
The only solution I can see is another election - and the sooner, the better.

After all, Brexit is still an ongoing process....

Unfortunately the lure of power with ministerial possibilities is too much to pass up notwithstanding they may not get another term or back in if there were to be a snap election as the Shinners, if they are to get more seats , most would come from the left as opposed to central.

So grab the chance now and worry about the rest in the afterlife

_Brian

Dunedin wrote: »

Unfortunately the lure of power with ministerial possibilities is too much to pass up notwithstanding they may not get another term or back in if there were to be a snap election as the Shinners, if they are to get more seats , most would come from the left as opposed to central.

So grab the chance now and worry about the rest in the afterlife

Both the greens and Labour are both stellar examples of parties that clung to power in government far too long and damaged their party badly as a result. Politicians want to be in government, they will trade away allot of principles for it, endless examples of it in recent history.

Dunedin

Dunedin wrote: »

Unfortunately the lure of power with ministerial possibilities is too much to pass up notwithstanding they may not get another term or back in if there were to be a snap election as the Shinners, if they are to get more seats , most would come from the left as opposed to central.

So grab the chance now and worry about the rest in the afterlife

That might explain it.

Having said that, it begs the question: If these people can't even protect their own future - why on earth would we trust them with ours?

_Brian

_Brian wrote: »

Both the greens and Labour are both stellar examples of parties that clung to power in government far too long and damaged their party badly as a result. Politicians want to be in government, they will trade away allot of principles for it, endless examples of it in recent history.

I think we could add FF to that.
They were already damaged. Confidence and supply undoubtedly decreased their vote even further.

Timmaay

amacca wrote: »

Ill put my neck on the chopping block and predict that Sinn Fein will have less elected next time around.

A certain percentage of the protest vote evaporates due to disillusionment and/or some of the older cohort that voted for them sobering up. (not literally)...another group will perceive a vote for SF as wasted anyway because they won't get in + you never know what they would do to shoot themselves in the foot from now until the next election (if it goes that way)....same goes for the other cretins on the latter point too though I suppose.

It's interesting how piss poorly Peter Casey did, after getting like 23% of the presidential vote in the form of a pure protest vote, to not coming anywhere close to elected in either Donegal or Dublin, as you say the protest vote can evaporate quick.

vincenzolorenzo

My take on that is that a presidential election campaign, particularly the last one, is only a popularity contest. The result last year was a foregone conclusion so I think a lot of people voted Casey as a protest. For a general election the elected candidates can actually influence policy, represent people, etc. so people are more invested in it

K.G.

Well now what are yer feelings in the current climate
Do ye think
The lads are there should stay there until this settle s
National government for 6 month s
Get the sinners in

duffysfarm

Never voted for fg in my life but i tell you one thing, i would sooner have them in charge than sf under current circumstances

K.G. wrote: »

Well now what are yer feelings in the current climate
Do ye think
The lads are there should stay there until this settle s
National government for 6 month s
Get the sinners in

cute geoge

I did not vote FG but imo they are handling the current situation as well as can be expected ,it might be hard for FF to oust Leo ,pascal and Simon too easy from their positions in a coalition government between FF and FG

mengele

Fine Gael doing an excellent job at the moment. They will be getting my vote the next time. I'd say leave them at it and once dust settles then try and form a new government.

TooOldBoots

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

What about Violet-Anne Wynne?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/td-says-shell-pay-12000-in-rent-arrears-to-charity-38958626.html

When paying all your Bills and Taxes spare a thought for Violet, She doesn't believe in paying her way and likes to sponge off the rest of us.

Robson99

Jjameson wrote: »

The civil servants make the decisions and run the Corina virus policies really but I do concur and I’m grateful to have some articulate politicians with a little bit of something about them resembling a steady functioning government, which has things fairly calm... I dread to imagine the Chucky air law scummers in the same position.

Totally agree.
Thank **** the Shinners are not in government. Could you imagine the panic and fear that would be in people at this stage if some of them <snip> were calling the shots

Buford T. Justice XIX

Mod note: Lads, dial back on the insults, we don't want to be handing out cards but any more of that stuff is just dialling in a card.

Buford T. Justice